## Posts

99% shorter 2021-05-27T19:50:03.532Z
philh's Shortform 2021-04-22T20:50:46.556Z
A command-line grammar of graphics 2021-03-30T20:30:03.071Z
Specialized Labor and Counterfactual Compensation 2020-11-14T18:13:43.044Z
Against boots theory 2020-09-14T13:20:04.056Z
Classifying games like the Prisoner's Dilemma 2020-07-04T17:10:01.965Z
Short essays on various things I've watched 2020-06-12T22:50:01.957Z
Chris Masterjohn on Coronavirus, Part 2 2020-04-28T21:50:01.430Z
In my culture: the responsibilities of open source maintainers 2020-04-13T13:40:01.174Z
Chris Masterjohn on Coronavirus, Part 1 2020-03-29T11:00:00.819Z
My Bet Log 2020-03-19T21:10:00.929Z
Tapping Out In Two 2019-12-05T23:10:00.935Z
The history of smallpox and the origins of vaccines 2019-12-01T20:51:29.618Z
The Effect pattern: Transparent updates in Elm 2019-10-20T20:00:01.101Z
London Rationalish meetup (part of SSC meetups everywhere) 2019-09-12T20:32:52.306Z
Is this info on zinc lozenges accurate? 2019-07-27T22:05:11.318Z
A reckless introduction to Hindley-Milner type inference 2019-05-05T14:00:00.862Z
"Now here's why I'm punching you..." 2018-10-16T21:30:01.723Z
Pareto improvements are rarer than they seem 2018-01-27T22:23:24.206Z
2017-10-08 - London Rationalish meetup 2017-10-04T14:46:50.514Z
Authenticity vs. factual accuracy 2016-11-10T22:24:38.810Z
Costs are not benefits 2016-11-03T21:32:07.811Z
GiveWell: A case study in effective altruism, part 1 2016-10-14T10:46:23.303Z
Six principles of a truth-friendly discourse 2016-10-08T16:56:59.994Z
Diaspora roundup thread, 23rd June 2016 2016-06-23T14:03:32.105Z
Diaspora roundup thread, 15th June 2016 2016-06-15T09:36:09.466Z
The Sally-Anne fallacy 2016-04-11T13:06:10.345Z
Meetup : London rationalish meetup - 2016-03-20 2016-03-16T14:39:40.949Z
Meetup : London rationalish meetup - 2016-03-06 2016-03-04T12:52:35.279Z
Meetup : London rationalish meetup, 2016-02-21 2016-02-20T14:09:42.635Z
Meetup : London Rationalish meetup, 7/2/16 2016-02-04T16:34:13.317Z
Meetup : London diaspora meetup: weird foods - 24/01/2016 2016-01-21T16:45:10.166Z
Meetup : London diaspora meetup, 10/01/2016 2016-01-02T20:41:05.950Z
Stupid questions thread, October 2015 2015-10-13T19:39:52.114Z
Meetup : London meetup 2015-05-14T17:35:18.467Z
Group rationality diary, May 5th - 23rd 2015-05-04T23:59:39.601Z
Meetup : London meetup 2015-05-01T17:16:12.085Z
Open Thread, Apr. 06 - Apr. 12, 2015 2015-04-06T14:18:34.872Z
[LINK] Interview with "Ex Machina" director Alex Garland 2015-04-02T13:46:56.324Z
[Link] Eric S. Raymond - Me and Less Wrong 2014-12-05T23:44:57.913Z
Meetup : London social meetup in my flat 2014-11-19T23:55:37.211Z
Meetup : London social meetup 2014-09-25T16:35:18.705Z
Meetup : London social meetup 2014-09-07T11:26:52.626Z
Meetup : London social meetup - possibly in a park 2014-07-22T17:20:28.288Z
Meetup : London social meetup - possibly in a park 2014-07-04T23:22:56.836Z
How has technology changed social skills? 2014-06-08T12:41:29.581Z

Comment by philh on Bad names make you open the box · 2021-06-13T10:36:27.796Z · LW · GW

The other thing about filterPromotedPosts is that it kind of sounds like the input is promoted posts and the output is some unspecified subset of them. filterPostsForPromoted avoids that but starts to feel unwieldy to me. (But maybe I should just be more okay with unwieldy names.)

Even in an impure language I think filter sounds to me like it would return a new list rather than editing in place. That's how the python filter function works for example, and Perl's grep (which is basically a synonym for me), and I had to look this up but JavaScript's filter too.

Comment by philh on We need a standard set of community advice for how to financially prepare for AGI · 2021-06-11T21:51:59.339Z · LW · GW

I'd worry that if we're looking at a potentially civilization-ending pandemic, a would-be warlord with a handful of followers decides that north sentinel island seems a kind of attractive place to go all of a sudden.

Comment by philh on What to optimize for in life? · 2021-06-10T21:26:10.853Z · LW · GW

I'm not following why a larger Pareto frontier would mean fewer tradeoffs on the frontier, could you elaborate on that?

Comment by philh on Search-in-Territory vs Search-in-Map · 2021-06-10T20:50:45.958Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure if these are examples of the thing you're talking about or something else, but:

Consider a missile that's guided by GPS until it reaches its rough target location, then uses sensors to locate the target precisely. (Though arguably this is simply "SIM followed by SIT".)

Or consider when I do something similar myself. I use the map on my phone screen to guide me to roughly where I want to be, and then I use my eyes to guide me to exactly where I want to be. And I don't just switch from SIM to SIT; I keep checking with both, in case e.g. I miss it and go too far.

Comment by philh on Search-in-Territory vs Search-in-Map · 2021-06-10T20:39:39.577Z · LW · GW

We're want the rock that's closest but not higher, and that's what we get. We don't necessarily get the closest rock, but we do get the best one, which is what John said.

Comment by philh on Why has no one compared Covid-19 and Vaccine Risks? · 2021-06-09T22:41:21.309Z · LW · GW

Apart from the things Jonathan mentions, the Pandemrix vaccine used for swine flu seems to have caused narcolepsy in rare cases.

Note that Fauci in that video is talking about delayed effects, not long-term effects.

Comment by philh on An Intuitive Guide to Garrabrant Induction · 2021-06-09T22:25:48.713Z · LW · GW

The logical induction criterion requires that, in the limit, all logical inductors assign probability 0 to Fermat’s last theorem being false. Conditioning on an event with probability 0 is ill-defined, so we have no formal guarantee that these conditional probabilities are well-behaved.

From what I understand, an LI need not assign probability 0 to Fermat's last theorem at any finite time. She might give it price on day . In practice I don't know if the LI constructed according to the paper will ever assign price to it. For all I know that would depend on the particular enumerations of traders and rationals used.

So if she never assigns price 0 except in the limit, we could condition on FLT being false at any finite time, and mayybe we could even consider the limit of those conditionings?

I'd, uh, be surprised if this works.

Comment by philh on Anatomy, diseases and aging damage · 2021-06-03T18:22:45.196Z · LW · GW

I took a screenshot from my anatomy atlas app, hopefully it's a bit helpful. https://i.ibb.co/RpMfpJX/Screenshot-20210603-191621.png

The muscle Christian is talking about is highlighted in blue, and the tendon sheath is the blue tube at the bottom. My read is that that sheath had moved to the side a bit, closer to the others?

Comment by philh on Update 2021-05-31 · 2021-06-03T16:44:48.266Z · LW · GW

For others confused like me: this is an update to a longer post. AGI in context is Adjusted Gross Income.

Comment by philh on For Better Commenting, Take an Oath of Reply. · 2021-06-03T14:21:45.569Z · LW · GW

So, this seems like a fine policy. But calling it an "oath of reply" feels like it waters down the word "oath" in a way I dislike. (cf. the people who've taken the GWWC pledge, and said that if in future they think it's not a good idea, they'll just stop doing it.) Especially when the stuff you've said should be a universal understanding (around self care, rudeness, circumstances changing) is left implicit. That stuff won't be universally understood.

As a simple change that I personally would consider an improvement, I'd call it a "reply policy". A few words making it clear that this not absolute might be good too. Perhaps, for the one you left on this post:

For this post, my reply policy is to respond to top-level comments at least once, absent a specific reason not to, through August 2021. I will likely pursue longer-form discussions. If commenters provide especially helpful feedback, I’ll note it here along with an acknowledgement.

(Possible downside: readers might take that to be weaker than you consider it.)

Comment by philh on Merry Newtonmas LW. Have some rationalist music. · 2021-05-31T21:46:12.162Z · LW · GW

Dunno if anyone from the band still reads LW, but I just wanted to say thanks; I've been enjoying this album for, I guess, coming up on ten years now. I think "Carry On" and "Keeping Me Away" are my favorites.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-30T12:48:33.194Z · LW · GW

### 99% Invisible: Matters of Time

A few short stories on the subject of time.

Standardized time across a whole country came into existence with train networks. It was important for these because people needed to know when the train would be there to catch it, and also being a few minutes off could cause crashes. They'd get someone with a good watch to sync it up in London, then travel around the network and have station operators sync their clocks from the watch. A clock on the side of the Bristol Corn Exchange still has both London and Bristol time, 12 minutes apart.

When industrialization started to become a thing, people would have to get up early before dawn to go to their shift, but didn't have alarm clocks yet. (Got the vague impression this was related to standardized time, and I could see that being related, but it also seems unnecessary.) So there'd be knockers-up, who went around waking people. No good to knock on the door, that could wake neighbors too (either annoying them or giving them a service for free). A long cane could rap directly on their bedroom window, or at least one person used a pea-shooter. Not a great wage, a lot of them were older women who couldn't do much physical labor any more. Also constables with the night shift would often moonlight as knockers-up, and the constable first told about the first Jack the Ripper victim was too busy doing that to come look at the body at first. The last one retired only in the early 70s. Vaguely related, there was at least one report in the ripper case saying things like "at 6:19... six minutes later" which is just way more precise than people would have been able to measure at the time.

China doesn't have time zones, the whole country is on Beijing time. For a while it was divided up, but when the PRC became a thing in the 50s it decided to promote unity by having one time zone. Beijing is in the east. Xinjiang, to the west, should really be about two hours behind according to the sun, and most people do run their lives on Xinjiang time, they open their shops later than in Beijing and so on, they just name the times in Beijing time. Except the Uyghurs often talk amongst themselves in Xinjiang time, and switch to Beijing time when talking to Han Chinese. What with state surveillance of phones, having your phone set to Xinjiang time isn't officially illegal but it's a "you might want to look closer at this person" sort of flag. Roman says that having Xinjiang run on Beijing time instead of solar time is "denying reality", and is not surprised it goes along with denying human rights.

Daylight saving time is controversial. People think it was to help farmers, but farmers rise with the sun whatever the time says. In fact it was because a house builder was going for walks and thought it was a shame people were missing out on the daylight. He wrote a pamphlet and it came up before parliament a few times but kept getting rejected. Not long after he died, Germany implemented DST during WWI, and then Britain followed. The advantage was saving energy, less fuel needed to heat and light homes. (Or maybe that was specifically the WWII bit later, and the advantage here was different?) Some people think we should actually be on DST year-round, and double-DST during Summer. Roman thinks this sounds like a nice plan. (He apparently does not consider it to be denying reality?) This has been floated in the UK. It hasn't taken off partly because Scotland doesn't like the idea and it would make them more likely to become independent, and also apparently Jacob Rees-Mogg attached a rider making Somerset time 15 minutes off the rest of the UK. He fully admits he's being ridiculous and just trying to make the bill less likely to pass. Also, it was tried during WWII, and people accepted it as a wartime measure but didn't like it, the dark mornings were crap.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-30T10:46:48.572Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money: Bad Credit Bureau

Credit ratings agencies started in the late 19th century in Brooklyn. For a while if you wanted to buy from a shop on credit, that was fine, the shopowner knew you. Then more people started moving in, and owners wouldn't know who to trust.

The Sells brothers went around to all the shops, asked to look at their books, and compiled a list of people with simple categorizations: do they pay on time, do they pay cash, is there something you should talk to us about first? Then owners could have a copy of the book and look up an unknown person in that.

This sort of thing was also useful for e.g. banks and insurance companies, and there was competitive pressure to start including more and more detail. Ratings agencies were basically flying under the radar with this sort of thing. Then in the 60s Congress was discussing something else, "it would be bad if this led to..." and someone was like "you know the CRAs do that already right?" Congress apparently did not know this and started looking at the CRAs. One woman had been denied a job for being rated as, like, disagreeable and "neurotic or psychotic"; there was no citation for this, it's not like it was a doctor's diagnosis, just a thing that had been written down for some unclear reason. Congress doesn't like this sort of thing and starts to impose rules on them.

The modern connection is to the Equifax hack.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-27T19:31:04.276Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money: the Benefits of Bankruptcy

Rerun of a 2015 episode.

Queen City Appliances was founded ~1950, at some point the founder's son Ronny took over as CEO. It was doing well, and borrowing money to make money. Then 2008 happened, and in 2009 the business was doing badly, no one buying new refrigerators. So Ronny filed for bankruptcy. He had to sign the papers along with his 80something-year-old mother, who had helped to build the business from the ground up and still did accounts four days a week. It was one of the worst days of his life. These papers are public, telling the court and the world everyone you owe money to. Within minutes a local paper had a story about it on its website, and his son texted to ask if he was okay.

But bankruptcy is kind of weird in the US, because you don't necessarily have to stop operating, you can file for "chapter 11". This goes back to railroads, which would run out of money at the slightest economic crisis but everyone still wanted them to run. So some means was developed for that to happen.

QCA went for it. Ronnie had to convince a judge and his creditors (via vote) that he had a way forward. After that, he had to ask permission for everything, including "paying his electricity bill" and "filling his trucks up with gas". And he had to submit weekly progress reports. He went from 17 stores to 4. His creditors wouldn't get everything back, some low on the pecking order only got 10%, but better than nothing. And after 1 1/2 years, he got a super short legal document saying his company was no longer bankrupt.

Everyone else thought the US was crazy when they first implemented this, but some economists think it's part of why they did better during the recession than most, and some other countries are looking to emulate it now. Ronnie's mum also likes bankruptcy more than she used to, having previously thought it was a "morally upright people do not do this" sort of thing. No one at church judged her for it either.

In a present day (as of rerun airing) update, QCA had a couple of bad years in between, but it's doing well again.

Comment by philh on Finite Factored Sets · 2021-05-26T23:05:43.097Z · LW · GW

Imagine that I had a bit, and it’s either a 0 or a 1, and it’s either blue or green. And these two facts are primitive and independently generated. And I also have this other concept that’s like, “Is it grue or bleen?”, which is the XOR of blue/​green and 0⁄1.

There’s a sense in which we’re inferring X is before Y, and in that case, we can infer that blueness is before grueness. And that’s pointing at the fact that blueness is more primitive, and grueness is a derived property.

I found it helpful to work through this example. Let's say is "is the bit 0 or 1" (resp. probabilities 1/4 and 3/4), is "is the bit blue or green" (independent of , 1/3 and 2/3), and is "is the bit bleen (blue/0 or green/1) or grue (blue/1 or green/0)" (7/12 and 5/12).

We have and independent of each other, but and aren't independent, and and aren't independent.

We have

• is orthogonal to
• can be computed from and
• So by the theorem you proved, is before .

(And applying the theorem a second time, we have is before .)

And you can't do this in reverse. Someone might try to say: "no, the bit is bleen or grue with probabilities 7/12 and 5/12, and then it's blue if it's bleen/0 or grue/1 and which has probability 1/3". But they couldn't tell you that bleen/grue and 0/1 are independent; you can reframe all you like, but that won't change. And so the theorem won't apply, we'll still have before and not before .

(But per a discussion elsethread, this wouldn't work if the probabilities were all 1/2, because then and are independent and so are and .)

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-26T21:49:07.456Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money: Flood Money

Bill's house has flooded three times since he's lived there, and by now he's getting used to it. Why not move? Insurance!

You can't really get private insurance for floods, because it's too correlated. When the company has to pay out for one person, it has to pay out for everyone, and it goes bankrupt. So this insurance is backed by the government. He pays something like $4k/year for a house that cost him under$500k, and its paid out over $800k so far. That's not counting the most recent flood, after which it'll be over$1m. (I don't remember if this counts the twice it flooded before Bill bought the house.)

The government body in charge of things like this nominally tries to take in more in premiums than it pays out, for a while it even succeeded, but it basically doesn't work. Part of this is because America is generally down on mandated insurance, and only a relative handful of people have this insurance. Bill is a gun-owning, libertarian-leaning Texan, but he still thinks people should be required to buy flood insurance.

The body in question has borrowed more and more money from some other government body to make up for the shortfall. Ostensibly it'll pay it back but it's just going to fall to taxpayers eventually. (One of these bodies is FEMA, I forget which.) It's not allowed to refuse to insure someone, and while it has some control over how much it charges, congress also has a lot of control.

The body also tries to encourage things like "building your house more resilient to floods, like on stilts" and "moving away from flood prone areas", but the cheap insurance kind of doesn't help on that front. Bill actually wants to put his house on stilts, but hasn't been able to get a grant for doing that yet.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-25T19:23:18.272Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (13 May 2021): Hot Cheetos

Attention conservation notice: the LA Times says this story is untrue. (I've only skimmed that article but it has some more details and corrections, both wrt reality and wrt what PM reported. For example, his name was Richard, not Robert. h/t Money Stuff, when I listened to the episode I remembered seeing it link to this.)

Robert? grew up in a family of farm workers. He was bussed into a previously all white school, sat with the other Latin Americans, and all the white kids were like wtf at his lunch burrito. He asked his mum to make him a sandwich next time. She made him two burritos, one to share, and soon he was selling burritos at school.

He joined a gang for a bit but sucked at it, kept getting arrested. When he turned 18 his girlfriend said it was time to get a real job. She wrote him a fabricated resume and he got work as a janitor in a chip factory. This was the early 80s?

He thought he was doing great, then someone called him in and said they'd have to let him go, he had no initiative. He blustered his way through, got them to give him another chance. Went home, then went to the library with his girlfriend and they looked up the word in a dictionary. Oh, that thing? I can do that.

So he started learning to do like everything. He'd sit in on sales meetings, and take over for people on the factory floor when they went on breaks, and was still being a janitor. At some point the company instituted a "give us an idea, we'll give you a dollar" policy, a dollar was decent compared to his wage, so he submitted loads. (Not clear if the idea had to be adopted?)

At some point he and his girlfriend decided to make hot chips. Decided for whatever reason that cheetos would be the kind of chip. He took a bunch home with him one day and they experimented, eventually getting something good, sharing it with friends. He went back to work, looked through the company directory and called the CEO. Got past the secretary, who was a bit confused - you work at the ___ factory, like you're the regional manager? Head of sales? Oh, you're the janitor? Um, okay, sure. CEO said he was going to be there in two weeks, he liked to tour his factories, and wanted to meet then.

So two weeks later he was in a room with the CEO and a bunch of other bigwigs pitching his hot cheetos. Latin Americans like spicy stuff, this is an underserved market. How much of the market can we capture, you ask? Thiiis much, opening his arms wide. Whoops, that's not the kind of thing you do in this kind of place. But it's okay, the CEO saves him: gentlemen, do you realize Robert just told us we can capture thiiis much of the market? Opening his own arms wide too.

So they like the idea, and their techies go away to develop hot cheetos. Robert doesn't get in on that, but it's based on his girlfriend's recipe and they don't get any payment for that. And they become a big deal. Later Robert moved up and on and became a manager or exec type at Pepsi, and there's a movie in the works about the story.

Sidenote that there were already hot cheetos on the market, but (I forget the but). Also sidenote that they couldn't verify most of the story, the factory in question didn't keep good records and the CEO passed away (they did speak to the secretary).

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-25T19:22:48.607Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (Rerun 21 May 2021): Big Government Cheese

In the 70s, Carter wanted to increase the retail price of milk by 6¢/gal, a decent amount. The point being that if the USA isn't self-sufficient for food that's a national security thing, so it's worth overpaying to keep your farmers local. Then congress outdid him and wanted the price to raise every six months?

But you can't just say "the price will be this now", you have to do something concrete which will have that effect, either lower supply or raise demand. Lowering supply means telling people not to make milk, not the kind of thing one does in America. (Plus seems like it would defeat the national security thing?) Raising demand means the government buying milk.

That's what it does with wheat and corn, and dumps them in silos. But those keep well, milk doesn't. So instead it decides to buy milk products that do keep well: cheddar cheese, butter, and "nonfat dry milk"? We only follow the cheese story.

Since the government is buying as much as you can produce, obviously farmers are going to want to sell their shittiest cheese. So they hire cheese graders to take core samples, taste them, and check they're good quality. Cheese hack: it's stored in barrels, so you can put good cheese on top and crap cheese on bottom, the grader mentioned that as a thing people did but didn't say how he'd find out or whatever.

And having bought the cheese, it basically just dumps it all in a set of caves in Kansas City. (Private caves that they're renting.) But the stockpile keeps growing and eventually growing mold. And it's hard to get rid of. They can't really sell it, that would compete with the farmers, not at all what they want. Normally they'd give it in foreign aid, but cheese doesn't travel well. The military takes some but not enough. They settle on food banks, the idea being that food bank recipients aren't buying cheese anyway.

It's awkward because it comes in way bigger barrels than the food banks want, but they cut it up and give it out, and government cheese becomes a whole thing in the public consciousness.

Some discussion of unintended consequences and the dangers of meddling in markets, but if there was a "this was clearly bad in hindsight because..." I missed it.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-24T22:16:47.551Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (20 May 2021): Get The Vaccine, Lose The Skinny Jeans

Two thematically related stories.

Once the Covid vaccine is available, there's a question of "how do we convince people to get it?" We speak to someone in this area. Her group tried a bunch of things.

• A joke, "did you hear the one about the flu? Don't spread it!": not effective.
• "Wealthy educated people are getting the vaccine!": not effective.
• "Lots of people are getting the vaccine!": effective.
• Ohio's million dollar lottery: effective.

In other news: Skinny jeans became popular in the early 2000s. Two relevant things are the Strokes wearing them on the cover of an album (their debut?) and stretch denim making them more comfortable and easier to put on/take off. For a long time they just completely dominate the jeans industry, which is awkward for designers because how do you sell someone a new pair when they already have like five?

Then a fashion student? on Tiktok starts giving wardrobe advice during the pandemic. At some point she realizes she has a pair of skinny jeans she hasn't worn in ages, they're (apparently despite stretch fabric?) kind of uncomfortable and a pain to put on and take off and why would she bother in a pandemic. She makes a video like, "three uses for your skinny jeans: trash them, cut them up, burn them". This apparently sparks/unexpectedly finds itself part of a broader anti-skinny-jeans Whole Thing, which is also part of the millenial/gen Z Whole Thing? Anyway by now skinny jeans are down to like, only 30% of all jeans sales.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-24T18:12:19.681Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (14 May 2021): Blood Money

America lets you sell blood plasma for money. The centers will call it a donation, but you get money for it, so. You can come in a couple of times a week and especially for low income people it can be a significant addition to their income. There are referral bonuses, and you get paid more if you come in more often. (Seems weird?) These centers are mostly located in low-income areas.

There's a history here involving Nicaragua. Under a dictator there was a center doing this, and a journalist was writing about concerns, and eventually the dictator had the journalist killed. Riots in the aftermath left the center burned down and eventually the dictator got deposed. At some point the WHO wrote up an agreement or something not to allow blood plasma to be sold. Almost everyone's signed, but not the USA. Now almost everyone gets their blood plasma from the USA. Four exceptions, who allow it to be sold and are self-sufficient: Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary.

We speak to a Canadian healthcare person about why Canada doesn't allow it. Three concerns. He's not too worried about incentives for people to sell bad blood, apparently we can sanitize it, even of HIV. He's also not too worried about health impacts on sellers; they get a checkup every four months to make sure they're still good, and there's some anecdotal evidence that maybe it should be more frequent but basically it seems fine. He seemed more concerned about "if people can sell plasma, will they do other things like regular blood donation for free?" I don't remember the commentary on that. I think he said that if the USA didn't allow selling they'd probably have to in Canada, but as long as they do it's unlikely to change.

We also speak to a Brazilian doctor saying that plasma and the things it's used for are essential, there are people who will die without it, get over yourselves.

Concerns that if either demand raises (finding new uses: there are studies showing promise in Alzheimers) or supply drops, there might not be enough. In fact supply has dropped during Covid: possible reasons include "sellers need the money less thanks to stimulus"; "if your kids are at home all the time you might be too busy"; "a lot of the sellers near the border are Mexicans who can't come over any more".

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-23T21:36:30.416Z · LW · GW

### 99% Invisible #442 (11 May 2021): Tanz Tanz Revolution

Berlin is known for its club scene, and this comes from the Berlin wall. No one really wanted to live in West Berlin, it was cut off from the rest of West Germany, so the government offered incentives: subsidized rent and food, exemption from mandatory military service.

(I'm surprised post-war Germany was allowed to have mandatory military service.)

This leads I guess to a bunch of musicians coming in, and they start defining a music scene. There's I think mutual influence between them and Detroit? They broadcast on the radio, and they say where they're DJing tonight, "come to the UFO club to hear this live" kind of thing.

Meanwhile in East Berlin, only state-sanctioned music is allowed, certainly nothing countercultural. If you want to hold a dance party, you need months worth of permits and bullshitting about how this will make the participants better soviet citizens through the ecstacy of dance. But the radio broadcasts from West Berlin are still there, so the East Berliners know what they're missing out on.

Eventually the wall comes down, they're allowed to mix freely, and East Berliners go to West Berlin clubs. Anyone who was there will tell you that the reunification of Germany happened on the dance floor.

West Berlin didn't have that much space, but East Berlin did. And for a lot of it, the ownership was unclear - the nazis had expropriated it from a Jewish owner, then the soviets from the nazis, and now in theory it was supposed to go back to its original owner but that could take a while (if they were even still alive I guess). In the meantime you could kind of just rock up to an abandoned warehouse and hold a rave? You'd be there for a couple of nights and then move on.

At some point one started staying in a dedicated location, somewhere that had held a bunch of records? I kind of zoned out and missed a lot of this.

Discussion of the link between Berlin and Detroit, but I missed a lot of that too. One specific record shop owner in Berlin was important.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-21T21:59:30.520Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (7 May 2021): Emission Impossible

Microsoft's CEO has announced that the company will be carbon negative by (2030 or 2050 or something). What does this mean?

(Explanation of carbon offsetting.)

One person selling carbon offsets is an Indonesian guy. He and a buddy bought up a load of Indonesian forest and now they charge money not to cut it down.

(Would cutting it down be a problem? Seems to me as long as you replant, and use the timber for construction, or store it, or otherwise make sure the carbon doesn't get released back in the atmosphere - it would be fine? But then I guess probably an old tree captures more carbon year-on-year than a young one. And also I guess the forest ecosystem is healthier with old trees, and constant replanting would eventually fail?)

Then there's a middleman. He knows how to make his way in Silicon Valley, he describes himself as offering the Airbnb of carbon offsets. The offset seller lists on the brokerage platform, and companies who want to buy offsets find them there.

There are a few potential problems with this. One is "regulation" but I don't remember what that means precisely. Another is, how do we know what it's worth to not cut down a forest? We have to compare to a hypothetical where no one bought the offsets, how much would have been cut down then? We can't know, but seller provides a number anyway. Comparing to similar forests, a study says that number is noticeably too high. There are ratings available, and this particular project gets either 0/5 or 1/5 stars.

(I don't remember if this is brought up in the episode, but I guess also: the person selling the offsets has incentive to encourage more logging in other forests.)

PM interviews someone, I think the broker, about these problems. He seems confident everything is fine. PM is unconvinced. Microsoft does not buy these particular offsets.

Comment by philh on How to compute the probability you are flipping a trick coin · 2021-05-17T09:17:14.522Z · LW · GW

So I was thinking of this paper (pdf), which I misremembered somewhat - you can't make a coin biased for "toss and catch", but you can make it biased for "toss and let it bounce". (And for "spin on a table".) Given that, "can't bias a coin" is probably too strong, though it's in the title of the paper.

Props for suggesting an actual experiment! I didn't feel like doing it though :p

Comment by philh on How to compute the probability you are flipping a trick coin · 2021-05-16T17:44:18.843Z · LW · GW

I've read that it's not possible to bias a coin - you can bias a coin toss if you know which way up it starts, but the coin itself will always be fair. But I confess that I don't know what assumptions they were making, so for all I know you could make something that would be recognizably a coin but that analysis wouldn't apply.

Comment by philh on Can Bitcoin transition from PoW to PoS? · 2021-05-16T09:32:54.728Z · LW · GW

As long as the price of bitcoin is higher than the expense of mining it then PoW is not a waste in economic terms.

But only if the expense of mining it is considered to include externalities. If you include those, then this is perhaps true, but it means we can't reject the premise "PoW is a massive waste of resources" offhand. To reject that we'd need to further establish that the miners' surplus is larger than the externalities. And I note that if the miners' surplus is large, more miners can join, though there are complications in this argument.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-15T22:38:21.989Z · LW · GW

### History of English #40 (21 Mar 2014): Learning Latin and Latin Learning

Previously the Roman Catholic traditions officially won over Irish Celtic, but Irish Celtic stayed alive, especially in Northumbria. And a king shortly after some of the previous kings built a particularly important monastary in that tradition. It had a lot of books, that was a thing for important monastaries. A child (~4yrs) named Beade went to stay there, no one knows why: "orphan" and "noble child" are possibilities, with some evidence for the latter being that the name meant "prayer" in Old English so it might have been intended from birth.

A few years later a plague hit, and only Beade (now 12) and the abbot survived. They kept doing services, but it meant Beade mostly grew up with a lot of books, and became an accomplished scholar. He wrote a bunch of books of his own, most of them are lost to us now but we know about the others through a list in one of the surviving ones. At least one of them was a history, and Beade was pretty groundbreaking in trying to be accurate. He also included dates, and he was the first to start numbering from Jesus, instead of the previous thing of dating by Roman emperors. He wrote in Latin (so we have AD instead of something more Saxon - I guess BC came later?) but was a proud Anglo Saxon, and a few centuries later someone translated his works into Old English.

Some etymology: "cross" comes from the torture and torture device, and gives us several obvious things like "crossroads" and some less obvious things like "cruise" (that one from another branch of IE). "Crisscross" is super old but its meaning has changed, originally it was a line of letters on a page referencing Christ, then came to mean the alphabet and then other things.

"Mass" (as in Church), "mission" (as in Church) and "mess" (as in mess hall) all come from the dismissal at the end of a service, and "mess" (as in messy) comes from mess-as-in-hall.

"Noon" is cognate with "nine". Early sundials divided the daylight into twelve hours, so the ninth was around 3pm. There were prayers at that time. Later those prayers were moved forwards to midday, but still got called noon.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-15T15:44:45.098Z · LW · GW

### 99% Invisible #441 (5 May 2021): Abandoned Ships

There are a handful of cargo ships - officially 50, likely more - waiting around in or near a port but not allowed to dock, and the crew isn't allowed to leave. We hear mostly from Mehmed (?). He was third in command on his ship, which arrived in Egypt with a lot of cement or maybe it was concrete. By the time they arrived, their salaries hadn't been paid in months, and the owner said it would be even longer until they did get paid. They refused to unload until they saw the money. The owner resisted and threatened for a bit, and then just went silent.

Egypt didn't want them leaving the ship fully abandoned, it would be a hazard. Ships need constant maintenance. So it said they weren't allowed, and they'd be imprisoned if they did. This went on for months, and they started to ration because they were running out of food. They also started fighting amongst themselves. Mehmed wanted to leave, but not alone, and no one else did. He thought of things like swimming three miles to a beach, or somehow jumping ship to one under a Turkish flag (his home country) and stowing away, but his family talked him out of it.

Two organizations help out in cases like this. Mission for Seafarers (a tiny organization, like two men and a motorboat) gets food and sim cards and so on to them. And some TLA tries to help with legal stuff, contacting owners, putting pressure on home countries, that sort of thing. ("Home countries" are the countries the ships are registered under, usually a flag of convenience.) Eventually (it was over a year at this point, possibly long over) this second organization managed to help in Mehmed's case, they got stuff settled in the Egyptian courts that everyone except the captain was allowed to leave and go home. And the captain got to stay in a hotel near port until the ship was auctioned, which could be months more. We're not told who if anyone is maintaining the ship or what happened to "unmanned ships are a hazard".

Someone from the TLA describes how he once spoke to one of these owners, who basically said the crew were the last thing on his mind and basically just a commodity: he also had a mortgage, other debtors, etc.

A similar story starting in 2013: a ship arrived in Beirut carrying lots of ammonium nitrate (basically a bomb, I think also a fertilizer). Owner couldn't or wouldn't pay or just disappeared entirely. Eventually the crew was let off, the bomb was unloaded into a hangar, and the ship sank. Then in 2020, the bomb was still in a hangar, and famously exploded.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-15T15:44:18.278Z · LW · GW

### 99% Invisible #308 (Rerun 28 Apr 2021): Curb Cuts

Rerun of a 2018 episode.

Dan Roberts (?) got polio as an adolescent. It left him mostly paralyzed, needing an iron lung to breathe. Though he did learn to "frog breathe" so he could escape his wheelchair for a bit at a time. (Maybe he wasn't as paralyzed as I remember them saying?)

When he wanted to go to UC Berkeley, at first they said no, he was too disabled, his wheelchair wouldn't even fit through a dorm room door. Then someone suggested he live in what used to be a hospital wing, and the college agreed. They hired an attendant to wheel him to and from classes and he'd give carbon paper to a classmate to get a copy of her notes.

Over time more disabled students came and they formed a group, possibly called the Quad Wheelers? And at some point someone invented the power wheelchair, originally for the benefit of disabled veterans but other wheelchair riders started to get them too. It gave them a lot more freedom. Dan got one and learned to use it partly because he was dating someone and it sucked to have his attendant accompany them.

(The show has a narrative around "things designed for one group of people turned out to help others", but I'm not convinced the power wheelchair was specifically designed for vets and it just so happened that others could use it. I would guess it was more like, there were enough disabled vets, or they were prominent and sympathetic enough, to attract attention?)

But with or without a power wheelchair, curbs are impassable. So, curb cuts. There were stories of the Quad Wheelers going out at night with sledgehammers and making their own cuts, but someone says that only happened a few times. What they did do was attend a city council meeting, there was a motion to make a bunch of curb cuts, it passed unanimously.

Then later there was the ADA. Wheelchair riders couldn't get up the steps of the capitol, so several of them got out and crawled, when they wanted to be there en masse. And the ADA passed, and it's good but doesn't do everything advocates want.

At some point Dan Roberts died, and his attendant took his wheelchair to the Smithsonian. It's now on display on their website.

At some point there's a mention of earlier curb cuts in a specific town, to help a disabled vet there. I don't remember many specifics. The curbs were unusually high for flood reasons, no mention of whether the curb cuts caused problems there.

The "curb cut effect" is that curb cuts helped others too, e.g. bicyclists and people with strollers, and this sort of thing is generalizable. Like the button you can press to open a door with your hip if you're carrying something, that was originally for disabled people.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-12T20:26:53.778Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (1 May 2021): A Superhero Goes to Hollywood

More superhero licensing, this time adaptations. The holy grail they want is a movie. Turns out NPR already has a deal with a studio, the same one producing the Hamilton movie. They paid (censored) to get right of first refusal on anything NPR produces for (censored) number of days, so PM can't shop around for that.

But they can go after other adaptations, and sign three deals. One is with a radio play group (I guess non-profit). Another is a choral music person, this one is more complicated because it's not non-profit, I think they decided on the guy writes the sheet music and then pays them like 15% of the profits of selling it. (We hear a clip but I was on 2.1x speed so it sounded off. Choral music isn't my thing anyway.) And finally there's a broadway musical, even more complicated, they license Micro-Face to the producers and then plan to license the show itself back to produce for PM. (We also hear a clip of the "I am" song from this.)

Then after the ROFR on the movie has expired, someone else gets in touch wanting to do that. He's done a bunch of small, well-reviewed movies, the name I remember is Slaxx which is about a pair of jeans. Looking at the credits for that they were probably talking to Shaked Berenson, I also recognize the name Turbo Kid now. He has a bunch of Rotten Tomatoes Certified Fresh trophies strategically visible behind him on the zoom call.

PM crew love his style, agree on something like: he pays $1500 for the option rights for 18 months. Tries to get together a cast and crew. If he successfully produces a movie, NPR gets 2.5% of the revenue up to$1mm, and then 5% of the profits if it makes a profit.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-09T18:38:50.465Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (28 Apr 2021): The $100 Million Deli There's a deli that's publicly traded and has a market cap of just over$100 million. This is crazy. Such a thing would normally be worth more like $100 thousand. It came to public attention when someone mentioned it in a speech or something as an example of how there seems to be no prosecution of fraud, or something. Someone from CNBC looked into the filings, the CEO is the local high school team's wrestling coach, and another important figure is a Chinese businessman with ties to Macau. Other large shareholders include companies based in Macau, too. And there are a few individuals involved who have been banned by the SEC from trading, or something. One of those individuals used to be coached by the wrestling coach I think. Also, the deli is hiring one of those companies as a consultant, for$25k a month, on sales of idk what but pretty sure less than that.

What's probably going on is the company is being used as a foothold into the American stock market. Someone doesn't want to do an IPO so instead they merge with an existing public company. Kind of like a SPAC, but different in a way I didn't quite catch. (Matt Levine's explained it as well, but I forget that too.) Call it a SNAC, Special No-purpose Acquisition Company.

The deli didn't allow recording inside, and they didn't want to talk about what was going on, but they made a good sandwich.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-08T19:18:20.849Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (23 Apr 2021): A Superhero Sells Out

Previously Planet Money found and resurrected the superhero Micro-Face, who had been created long ago and lapsed into public domain. Now they're trying to make money from him, through licensing.

They put out a call for people who wanted to do a licensing deal, and then spent a day talking to them in turn, Dragon's Den style, either accept or reject. Speaking to an expert on licensing (she previously worked on Sesame Street and Beavis and Butthead) they decided to follow what they called the Elmo rule: don't license something out of character.

They reject almost every application. Temporary tattoos because although Micro-Face is a hip guy in NYC, he definitely has tattoos, he wouldn't have temporary tattoos. A recycling company endorsement because he's a journalist, he wouldn't endorse a company. Eventually someone comes along offering Gouda, and they go for it.

Then finally a husband-wife team, The Bitter Housewife, offers an ultimatum on some kind of soda, either work with them or no one. They've already registered the trademark on Micro-Face sodas. Can they do that? Yes, says the lawyer they consult, a trademark doesn't give you exclusive use of the word in every market. Dove cosmetics and Dove chocolate are unrelated, and there's nothing stopping the PM hosts talking about the Greek goddess Nike, or even selling a T-shirt with her picture, as long as they don't use her name on the T-shirt.

But there's also nothing stopping them putting the image of Micro-Face on a soda. (The Bitter Housewife can't do that, but I guess they can use the original Micro-Face?). So out of spite they reach out to a soda manufacturer and do just that, calling it Planet Money Official Superhero Soda ("sour, but never bitter").

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-08T09:24:00.845Z · LW · GW

### 99% Invisible #440 (20 Apr 2021): La Brega in Levittown

La Brega is another podcast, focused on Puerto Rico. It's produced with both Spanish and English versions. The name is an expression meaning something like "shit sucks but whatever". Roman interviews the author then runs episode 2.

Levittowns were deliberately built to be places where I think returning veterans from WWII could buy a place and become homeowners. In the American version of the concept they'd only sell to white people.

For a while America was happy to let PR be poor, but then there was the cold war and Cuba became communist, and America wanted to hold up PR as an example of the success of capitalism, so they decided to raise a middle class there. Part of this was building a Levittown. But also there were too many people.

Host mentions forced sterilization and birth control experiments, but the approach taken here seems to be... encouraging PRans to move to the mainland states where there were more opportunities for them? Host seems to think this is obviously bad. Anyway, that worked for a bit and then PRans migrated back to PR.

We follow a family, possibly Host's family? I think the story was they moved to America, back to PR, then almost had to move to America again after the dad finished building houses in Levittown because he couldn't afford them, but then he won the lottery.

At first Levittown seems to have been a success, there were a few different models of house there, they were cement so people could paint them, and people would also extend them according to personal taste. Later, and especially in the wake of the hurricane, it seems not so much?

Comment by philh on Why I Work on Ads · 2021-05-07T23:08:54.070Z · LW · GW

They have re-arranged the world to put themselves in front of you. They never asked for your permission, don’t even start asking for theirs.

I'm very suspicious of this line of reasoning, since I could also say: "those men kissing in public didn't ask for my permission to put themselves in front of me".

This isn't a knock-down rebuttal or anything, I just wanted to note this.

Comment by philh on [deleted post] 2021-05-05T00:20:18.188Z

Minor, but: 5'11 is 71 inches and 6'5 is 77. And if Alice turns out to be 5'0 your friend would owe you $11, but if she's 6'0 you'd owe him$1.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-04T21:40:43.317Z · LW · GW

### 99% Invisible #439 (14 Apr 2021): Welcome to Jurassic Art Redux

Rerun of a show from 2018. In the present-day into, Roman and someone talk about how even though we can recite that 90% of an iceberg is underwater, we tend to picture that stuff being mostly below the stuff above it, like an ice cream cone, when actually it's a lot more spread out. Drawings can make this sort of thing much more intuitive. They mention a website where you can draw a 2d iceberg shape, and it'll show you how it would orient itself.

For a long time people thought dinosaurs were slow and cold-blooded. They'd picture brontosaurus and diplodocus standing in swamps to help support their body mass. Evidence comes along suggesting they were warm-blooded and at least some of them were fast.

Bob (Barker?) writes an article defending this, and draws a picture of a dinosaur running, and this sets off a wave of other people drawing dinosaurs doing stuff and thinking of dinosaurs as fast and exciting things. Jurassic Park (the movie, book isn't mentioned) is part of this.

But most depictions still assume dinosaurs are basically just what we can derive from the skeletons. You can't figure out the shape of a whale or a camel or an elephant from its skeleton, so you probably can't do it with a dinosaur either. Three things happen in I don't remember what order:

• We find a dinosaur with some of its softer tissues preserved, and it had quills, maybe feathers?
• A book comes out, All Yesterdays, with pictures of "we can't rule out that this is what this dinosaur looked like".
• That kind of thing becomes more accepted, as long as you make it clear that it's "we can't rule this out" not "this is what we know". E.g. you might draw a triceratops with a nose balloon because that's what the big nostrils might be good for.

Also, after All Yesterdays comes All Todays, where people take skeletons (sometimes partial skeletons) of modern day animals and do the All Yesterdays thing to them.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-03T14:44:14.220Z · LW · GW

### Corecursive (2 May 2021): Etherium Rescue

"Daryl" was an ETH user who fat-fingered a transaction. Went online for help, guest said sorry, nothing anyone can do. Then later guest went o shit maybe there is.

Daryl was playing with uniswap, a smart contract letting people provide liquidity for exchanging crypto, e.g. ETH for USDC. Normally when providing liquidity you'd do two things in one transaction, with something like a try/catch letting you do them atomically. I guess Daryl had only done one of them? Anyway, his money was just sitting there, and as soon as anyone tried to take their liquidity from uniswap they'd get Daryl's money as well.

Guest realized this and went to check, and the money was still there. But! He also remembered stories of generalized ETH frontrunners. These will examine the pending transactions, see if there's something in there they can use to make money, and if so, submit their own transaction with a higher fee so it gets executed first. Guest worried that one of these would show up if he tried to recover the money. He asked on a group chat if others would also be worried, some of them were, and they got together to try to figure something out.

Ultimately they'd need to do some kind of obfuscation so that a bot wouldn't try the thing they were doing. They settled on two separate transactions in one block, where the second one wouldn't do anything unless the first had already happened, hoping bots would only try them separately. But there's stuff set up to protect you from making transactions that don't do anything, and it was stopping them from making the second.

Guest was tired and stressed and the money might disappear at any minute, so eventually Guest said YOLO we'll do them in two different blocks and hope. The second transaction got front-ran and they lost the money. On the plus side his worries were vindicated.

Guest and Adam (host) discuss Meditations on Moloch. The thing they take away from it is that you need regulation/Leviathan. Guest says for Hobbes the Leviathan was hereditary monarchy, recently we've been trying democracy and that seems better overall, but he's optimistic that smart contracts will be another solution.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-05-03T14:42:13.940Z · LW · GW

### History of English #39 (5 Mar 2014): Not Lost in Translation

Now that people are writing Christian poetry in (old) English, they need to come up with English words for Christian concepts. One thing was that they had a stock phrase "blank-guardian", and Cadmin's poetry called god "mankind-guardian". (Cadmin was the cowherd from last episode.)

The only history I remember from this episode was a cross called the Roothschild cross or something, which had a poem written on it that was also found in the Italy book from last episode. In the 17th Century the cross was broken up (either because it was Catholic and Protestants were doing that sort of thing at the time, or vice versa) and scattered across church grounds, but eventually it was mostly reconstructed. The poem was written from the perspective of the cross that Jesus was crucified on, and the way it talks about blood has similarities with Beowulf. Some people think it was written by Cadmin but we can't know.

Some etymology: "good" and "god" are unrelated, but they sometimes get mixed up. "Goodbye" comes from "god be with you" and "gospel" comes originally from something meaning "good news" that at some point becomes "godspel". "Drip" comes from blood dripping, and cognate with dreary. "Lord" comes from loaf-guardian ("breadwinner" is more modern but similar) and "Lady" comes from "loaf-maid". That's kind of redundant because "maid" itself comes from "dough-maker", so we have loaf-guardian and loaf-maker.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-04-30T23:06:01.166Z · LW · GW

### History of English #38 (17 Feb 2014): Nobles, Nuptials and a Cowherd Poet

After Edwin became king in Northumbria, he didn't want Ethelbert's son down in Kent to do aggro at him, so he married Ethelbert's daughter. She agreed on condition she could stay Christian and bring a priest, which is similar to how her grandmother had eventually converted Ethelbert's father when she married him. (Or how her mother had converted Ethelbert?) The priest tried to convert Edwin. One day one of his enemies sent an assassin, but someone jumped in front of the blade, and also his daughter was born. He was mildly injured, said he'd convert if he recovered. He recovered and eventually converted. Then he got killed by a Welsh king or something.

One of Ethel???'s sons came to take the throne, he was somehow important but I forget how, then he was killed by the same Welsh king. Then his brother came too, possibly named Oswald? Oswald had been in Ireland, which had not been invaded by Germanic tribes and had a monastic culture. Oswald defeated the Welsh king and married Edwin's daughter (also named Ethel??? but a different Ethel??? name) who had gone back down to Kent for safety. So the Roman Catholic and Irish Celtic churches were both trying to be A Thing at this point. It was awkward because they e.g. celebrated easter a week apart, so Oswald would be celebrating while his wife was still fasting.

Since we're talking about marriage, some related words that I mostly forget. The "lock" in "wedlock" is actually "activity". "Bridal" sounds like a normal construction, but it comes from "Bride-ale", as in "Bride-beer", a feast. "Wife" is possibly cognate to "weaver" and "bride" is possibly cognate to "brewer".

Eventually a big meeting happened and they agreed on Roman Catholic doctrine, but the Irish Celtic monastic tradition stayed in place, and in particular it was literary.

At one point, I think this was sort of mid-7th century, there was a monastary with a cowherd. He'd hear the monks reciting poetry but was too shy to recite any himself. One night he had a dream where he came up with some poetry. He recited it to the Abbess who was impressed, and then he came up with a bunch more when asked. (It was a monastary for both men and women, though they'd live separately. Those places were fairly normal, and it was fairly normal for them to have Abbesses.) They wrote it down. And this was in English, which was a big deal because all the religious stuff so far had been in Latin. Some people consider this year as big a deal as 1066 in the history of English.

All the Old English poetry we know comes from four books, and this was one of them. Another, the one that included Beowulf, was just in some dude's large library. Another somehow made its way to Italy, no one knows how. I forget the last.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-04-30T23:05:38.572Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money (Rerun 21 Apr 2021): The Writer's Revolt

Rerun of a 2019 episode.

In theory, if you're a screenwriter for Hollywood, you have an agent who gets you the best deals because that's how they get money. But there's a practice called "bundling", where the agency puts together a collection of a writer, director, showrunner, and sells them to the studio as a package deal. (Agencies represent everyone. Not just Hollywood, e.g. pop stars, and one of them bought Miss America from Trump in 2016 or so.) Then the agency has less incentive to get the best deal for the writer.

The guy who wrote The Wire discovered this when trying to pitch The Wire, and also discovered that he'd been bundled on a previous project of his without being told. The agency had represented both him and the director when they'd been negotiating, which he didn't like because, again, incentives.

We also hear from a writer whose show didn't make it into production because two agencies - neither of whom represented him - were fighting over who got bundling fees.

Anyway, writers didn't like this. They have their own union, so they started doing collective bargaining. Most of the agencies didn't budge, so eventually they fired all those agents at once.

We hear from a head of a smaller agency, who gave in soon after and thinks doing so was good for them because they didn't do that much bundling anyway. Writers feel like they have more power now.

As of 2021, the pandemic has also been good for writers' power versus agencies, because people still watch Hollywood content at home, but not so much pop stars.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-04-29T19:31:34.524Z · LW · GW

### Rationally Speaking #223 (16 Dec 2018): Chris Fraser on "The Mohists, ancient China's philosopher warriors"

The Mohists were a group from early China, either the Qin dynasty or whoever preceded the Qin dynasty. Then in the following dynasty, they were mostly forgotten.

They were consequentialists, and the consequences they considered good were something like, material wealth, something I forget, and people acting in their assigned roles. (Fathers acting as fathers, administrators acting as administrators, that sort of thing.) They were also anti-war, and their philosophy encouraged them to actually go out into the world and try to make it better. If there was a war, they'd offer their services to the defender, making it more costly to the attacker. They were kind of well-known for that. One story tells their founder walking ten days to talk to an aggressor and try to convince them to call off the attack. Aggressor is like "well but I'm all prepared now, it would be awkward to cancel. Plus I've got these neat siege engines". Mohist demonstrates how he'd defeat the siege engines, and says he's placed thousands of followers on the walls of the defender, which in this case is a flat lie but it works. Aggressor sighs and calls off the attack.

They were very religious, and their philosophy followed from their religion, but I didn't really follow how. Also, they weren't into equality. They thought society should be stratified, and the people above should be rewarded, but also they should use their rewards to help the poor.

A few factors in their decline. One was that their rank-and-file got super into giving stuff away for status, like you couldn't live comfortably and be a proper Mohist, which the central Mohists didn't agree with at all. Parallels to EA there. (Though the central Mohists did think you shouldn't have, like, decorated clothing or weapons, because they function just as well as clothing or weapons without the decoration.) Another was that Chinese unification meant there were fewer wars for them to make themselves useful in. Another was that they sort of got into the water supply, some of their ideas became mainstream and then there was less distinguishing them from others.

Comment by philh on Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold · 2021-04-29T16:18:29.822Z · LW · GW
1. Vitamin D is generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment: 70%

Vitamin D is good and important, you should be taking it, but I’m skeptical that such sources will recognize this in the future if they haven’t done so by now. Conditional on (I haven’t checked) the sources that matter not having made this call yet, I’d sell it to 50%, while saying that I definitely would use it to treat Covid if I had the choice.

This was a typo on Scott's part, he's updated it to "not generally recognized". He's previously written about why he doesn't think it's effective.

Comment by philh on Paper review: A Cryptographic Solution to a Game Theoretic Problem · 2021-04-28T17:09:20.171Z · LW · GW

Note: it seems the paper itself is linked from your original blog, but not on LW? So for the benefit of LW readers, it's: Dodis, Y., Halevi, S., & Rabin, T. (2000, August). A cryptographic solution to a game theoretic problem. In Annual International Cryptology Conference (pp. 112-130). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

By using the techniques mentioned above, two players can then execute the following protocol:

1. At the beginning of the protocol, the Preparer randomly permutes the list, encrypts it element-wise and sends the resulting list to the Chooser.

Ecrypting it elementwise means encrypting the components of the pairs separately, not just the list element separately. So if the list starts as , it becomes . The encryption is random, such that even if , the encryptions . That way you can't look at the frequencies in the encrypted list.

1. The Chooser picks a random pair of ciphertexts (c, d) from the permuted list.

Here the Chooser picks one random list element, which is a pair of cyphertexts.

It then blinds c with 0 (i.e. makes a random encryption of the same plaintext), blinds d with a random blinding factor β, and sends the resulting pair of ciphertexts (e, f) back to the Preparer.

The blinding with 0 here is necessary so the Preparer won't be able to recognize , which would tell her what is.

Comment by philh on Let's Rename Ourselves The "Metacognitive Movement" · 2021-04-28T14:05:39.713Z · LW · GW

Thinking in ways which systematically arrive at truth. Tie between rationality and metacognition.

Echoing what Rob said above: these labels apply in very different ways. "Rationality" applies in a definition-like way, which is how it's used on the page. Metacognition applies in an example-like way. You would never say "what we mean by metacognition is thinking in ways which systematically arrive at truth", because even if the practice has that result, that's not what the word means. (And I doubt the practice always does have that result.)

I really do think there’s a strong contingent of people in this space who are more interested in metacognition, and have a skepticism of attempts to become a rational agent.

Eh, my reaction to this is something like, then they can have their metacognitive movement. And it can overlap with the rationality community, but they shouldn't be the same thing.

Comment by philh on Let's Rename Ourselves The "Metacognitive Movement" · 2021-04-28T12:29:10.623Z · LW · GW

I think referencing Bayes in the name would be a mistake for the same reason as metacognition - it's a tool, and it's a law, but it's not an end and it's not The Thing.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-04-27T20:53:25.703Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money #946 (23 Oct 2019): Fries of the Future

America doesn't eat a lot of potatoes in general, but it does eat a lot of French fries. Unfortunately, French fries only take a few minutes to go from crispy and great to soggy and shit. This is a problem for fast food.

The industry partially solved the problem once, when drive-through became a thing. Previously it was "drive-in", you'd stay there in your car and a waitress on roller-skates would take your order and deliver it with plates and cutlery. But then people would drive off with their plates and cutlery, which was expensive. Enter the wrapper. Now you'd just get your food and drive home with it. In like the 70s or 80s? this became more common than a sit-down fast food meal. (It also gave us cup holders in cars.) But now your fries would mostly be sitting until you got home, by which time they'd be shit. So they invented "stealth fries", which were french fries coated in something you couldn't see, which kept them crispy for longer.

But delivery makes that harder again. Someone with a fairly high position in the relevant industry happened to go to Shangai? one time, noticed a crazy amount of delivery drivers, followed them around a bit and saw they were delivering a lot of fries. Thought, huh, if this happens in America people won't want fries any more because the fries they get will be shit. So she went back home and tried to convince her bosses to work on making fries keep longer. They didn't think it would be a problem, who wants to wait 30+ minutes for delivery? But she had enough power to work on it anyway, and eventually they managed to solve it. PM reporter sampled them and approved. These new fries aren't available yet though.

PM reporter dips her fries in milkshake. Twelve-year-old me is vindicated.

Comment by philh on Two Designs · 2021-04-27T19:26:53.968Z · LW · GW

I would prefer if the pattern I’m talking about could be implemented with if statements

This has its own problems, but you could use inspect.signature, I think?

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-04-26T20:05:15.686Z · LW · GW

### Planet Money #945 (19 Oct 2019): The Liberty City

Von Army (???, edit: it's Von Ormy) is a city in Texas. It used to be unincorporated, then some firefighters were grousing about how San Antonio was going to annex them and they'd get higher taxes but no representation. One of them was like "we should make our own city", the chief was all "go on then", and they did. That first one became mayor.

Wanted to be as cheap as possible. Initially had property taxes to get them going, but started reducing them every year. One thing they did: buy a squad car from a nearby city that was replacing theirs. It lasted like a year but no regrets.

Another thing they did: some recent college grad from some city-development-related major wanted to do an internship and didn't really like the obvious options. Heard about Von Army, called them up and was like hey do you want an intern? They said sure, and got their intern to write their legal code by looking at codes from nearby cities and copying the good bits. Health and safety, stuff like a fire code, sure. Indoor smoking prohibitions, not so much.

Intern later became City Administrator. Mayor wanted him to do a bunch of stuff but didn't want him raising taxes. Mayor's plan was to attract big businesses (Walmart, Target) with something or other, and collect sales taxes. Administrator tried to work with them, but the lack of sewage was a dealbreaker (residents just had to empty their septic tanks). So Administrator tried to work with San Antonio for sewage, got what he thought was a pretty big deal, but Mayor rejected it. Administrator resigned.

Today he thinks Von Army is not working out very well, and PM reporters spoke to people who also didn't think that. Former Mayor thinks it's fine, people just don't understand that this is the price of low taxes. Von Army still has low taxes, but gets lots of money from speeding tickets for people passing through. $60k this year, expecting$250k next year, reporter is a bit incredulous at that, I don't think Current Mayor explains. (I don't know if \$60k is actually a lot in this context. Current Mayor is Former Mayor's mum.) Reporter questions whether it's a bit paradoxical, like "low taxes on residents but high taxes on non-residents", Current Mayor says every place does this.

Comment by philh on philh's Shortform · 2021-04-26T19:44:02.195Z · LW · GW

### 99% Invisible #438 (7 Apr 2021): The Real Book

In the early days of jazz, musicians would be playing in a club and receive requests, Broadway hits were popular, and have to search through their mountain of sheet music for the song, which they'd then improvise on top of. Some people started making stripped-down versions of the sheet music, not enough to reproduce the original but enough to riff off. Those might have been legal in their original incarnation? And then people started collecting those in "fake books", which were much more convenient to carry around than a mountain of sheet music. Those definitely weren't legal.

They also kind of sucked, they were often wrong and they were outdated, both in terms of what songs they included and in terms of how they were played. Jazz had evolved, Charlie Parker and Miles Davis, and the fake books hadn't.

(I don't think the show ever said why not, or treated that as an interesting question?)

(I think it was here we heard two versions of a song from Snow White. I couldn't have told you that the jazz version was the same song. Though, listening on 2x probably didn't help.)

Some students at Berkeley Music College in Boston approached their teacher with an idea to create a new fake book, updated for the 1970s. He hesitated because illegal and because people getting money for their work is good, but decided it would be worth it. They called it The Real Book, printed out a few hundred copies themselves, then those started getting copied all over the world. The teacher in question said the music quality when he'd walk down the hall improved, people were now playing the right things.

No one could compete legally with The Real Book because they couldn't get the rights to all those songs. But then someone did get the rights to almost all those songs, and printed a legal version. They kept basically the same design and made a digital font of the original handwriting. Today The Real Book is basically essential for jazz musicians. (Has it been updated since the 1970s?)

Some hand-wringing about how the person who has legal credit as songwriter might not have been the actual songwriter. Some criticism that The Real Book has essentially become canonical in a genre that shouldn't have canon. Some opining that you can't learn jazz from a book, you have to study with other jazz players.

Reporter eventually managed to get an email exchange with one of the original students, who did the handwriting. He wants to stay anonymous basically because it's fun. Agrees with the criticism and the opining. Thinks the digital font isn't very good.

Comment by philh on Thiel on secrets and indefiniteness · 2021-04-25T18:38:32.828Z · LW · GW