Measure's Shortform 2020-11-27T05:22:34.678Z


Comment by Measure on Tracey Davis and the Prisoner of Azkaban - Part 4 · 2021-06-19T22:59:38.241Z · LW · GW

Thanks for the video link :)

Comment by Measure on What are examples of the opposite of perverse incentives? · 2021-06-18T19:20:04.467Z · LW · GW

Typo in the title.

Comment by Measure on Tracey Davis and the Prisoner of Azkaban - Part 5 · 2021-06-17T13:52:32.394Z · LW · GW

Is this after the concert in part 4? Does Tracey not remember it?

Comment by Measure on Tracey Davis and the Prisoner of Azkaban - Part 5 · 2021-06-17T13:51:23.119Z · LW · GW

"plan music" did you mean "play"?

Comment by Measure on Tracey Davis and the Prisoner of Azkaban - Part 4 · 2021-06-17T13:45:33.852Z · LW · GW

had overcame -> had overcome

Comment by Measure on Can someone help me understand the arrow of time? · 2021-06-16T15:19:23.424Z · LW · GW

You may exist at only a single point in the timeline, but very-slightly-different versions of you exist at nearby points (both nearby temporally and nearby via recent quantum branching). Physics determines the relationships between these versions, and also causally ties you into everything else. If you are wearing a hat at this instant, the versions of you a few milliseconds before and after are probably also wearing hats. Your memory is what it is because of what your past versions experienced.

You can think of "doing something" as "being the sort of person whose future self has done the thing" if you like, and you are yourself the sort of person you are based on what your past self was like (again via Physics), but the short answer here is "It all adds up to normality."

Comment by Measure on Which rationalists faced significant side-effects from COVID-19 vaccination? · 2021-06-15T19:53:20.170Z · LW · GW

1st dose (Pfizer): Mild soreness at injection site for ~6 hours (similar to flu shot).

2nd dose: same

Comment by Measure on Experiments with a random clock · 2021-06-13T22:30:40.091Z · LW · GW

My problem was that I would simply lose track of the time and not notice when the event was about to start. My solution to this was to set alarms on my phone before each event. If you can correctly predict how much time you'll need to prepare/travel, then you just need to form the habit of alarm -> start getting ready.

Comment by Measure on Taleuntum's Shortform · 2021-06-13T14:09:31.484Z · LW · GW

Even in your weightlifting example, there is a point where adding more weight no longer improves your outcome.

Comment by Measure on Some people just won't get it · 2021-06-13T11:43:22.138Z · LW · GW

Minor nitpick: Doesn't non sequitur refer to an invalid inference rather than to a false premise?

Comment by Measure on Alarms Are Better Than Chivvying · 2021-06-11T21:27:16.331Z · LW · GW

I learned a new word today.

Comment by Measure on Bad names make you open the box · 2021-06-11T01:41:18.139Z · LW · GW

"Vague" would be less.

Comment by Measure on Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem · 2021-06-11T01:37:58.514Z · LW · GW

What minimum percentage is required to constitute "Most" as in 'most people believe X'?
59% or less - 41.9%
60%-69% - 17.9%
70%-79% - 22.1%
80% or more- 18%
804 votes

Weird. I've always understood 'most' to unambiguously mean "the majority", i.e. "more than half", and I had assumed there was general agreement on this.

Comment by Measure on Bad names make you open the box · 2021-06-09T18:54:02.066Z · LW · GW

Personally, I would use "getFoo" for a function and "foo" for a variable.

Comment by Measure on Bad names make you open the box · 2021-06-09T18:50:42.716Z · LW · GW

Haha, same. Though I had actually forgotten what I had thought the title meant until I read this. (I went from the above interpretation to "probably interesting" and opened the article, and by the time I got around to reading it, it was indeed interesting, but I didn't notice the prediction error.)

Comment by Measure on Viliam's Shortform · 2021-06-08T22:15:28.144Z · LW · GW

IANAB, but the first half almost sounds like a metaphor for something like "all enlightened beings have basically the same desires/goals/personality, so they're basically the same person and time/space differences of their various physical bodies aren't important." Not sure about the second half though.

Comment by Measure on The reverse Goodhart problem · 2021-06-08T22:02:06.756Z · LW · GW

The point is that V and V' are both hard to define. U is simple, but without a good definition for V, you won't be able to get a good V', and if you do have a good V, you can just optimize that directly.

Comment by Measure on Bayeswatch 6: Mechwarrior · 2021-06-07T21:02:21.998Z · LW · GW

threes -> trees

Comment by Measure on Anthropic Paradoxes and Self Reference · 2021-06-06T12:37:56.232Z · LW · GW

"I am not awake now" or "I do not exist"

It seems like these are both simply false with no paradox (at least whenever anyone considers them).

Comment by Measure on Tracey Davis and the Prisoner of Azkaban - Part 1 · 2021-06-04T18:39:19.822Z · LW · GW

...she combed her Hermione's hair.

Whose hair?

Comment by Measure on Why has no one compared Covid-19 and Vaccine Risks? · 2021-06-04T15:22:58.043Z · LW · GW

If case counts continue to decline, there will be a significant number of people who are never exposed.

Comment by Measure on Is anyone else frustrated with 'un-informative' post titles? · 2021-06-02T00:47:37.539Z · LW · GW

There have definitely been posts I've skipped over and only read after browsing back through older posts and noticing a high karma/comment total. There have also been a fair number of posts I start reading and wish I had skipped. More informative titles would help with both problems, but my total annoyance is low.

Comment by Measure on The blue-minimising robot and model splintering · 2021-05-28T17:51:36.192Z · LW · GW

At step 8, why is the AI motivated to care about the idealized goal rather than just the reward signal? Are we assuming that the reward signal is determined by performance wrt the ideal goal?

Comment by Measure on The Homunculus Problem · 2021-05-27T22:10:12.487Z · LW · GW

To clarify, by "my brain" I'm referring to the specific subset of my brain that does sensory processing below the level of conscious experience.

Comment by Measure on The Homunculus Problem · 2021-05-27T22:05:09.235Z · LW · GW

My brain does some fancy post-processing of the optical data and presents me with the perception of A being darker than B. I can form beliefs about what underlying physical reality might cause this perception, and I expect to continue experiencing it. Separately, I could measure the luminosity of the two regions and get a perception of two equal numbers. When you tell me about the illusion, that changes my expectation of what sorts of luminosity numbers I will perceive, but it doesn't change my expectation that I will continue experiencing apparently-differently-colored regions in my visual field. All this means is that I shouldn't expect my visual field experiences to always match my luminosity sensor output experiences.

Comment by Measure on A.D&D.Sci May 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset · 2021-05-24T21:38:44.528Z · LW · GW

I am bidder C above. Mostly I was trying to win the Jewel Beetle and hope for a lucky roll. I was expecting a larger number of entries and was optimizing for chance to win rather than expected profit. I didn't put a ton of effort into modeling the exact EVs of the lots, and many of my bids were adjusted to be slightly above the nearest multiple of five.

Comment by Measure on The Web is Turning into Cable TV · 2021-05-24T00:00:02.457Z · LW · GW

If this is something that the browser does, there could be browsers that refuse to provide the information (or provide random/adversarial info) or maybe simple wrappers that strip/replace that info.

Comment by Measure on [deleted post] 2021-05-19T21:59:28.930Z

It is not at all obvious to me that suffering outweighs pleasure. Certainly in my own life the reverse is true, and the behavior of most other people implies the same for them. I wouldn't push any of the buttons.

Comment by Measure on Sherrinford's Shortform · 2021-05-18T19:11:50.578Z · LW · GW

"Control system" means something a bit more specific than "whatever it is that causes the behavior of the system". A control system has an input, an output, and a set point. It varies the output based on the difference (error) between the input and the desired set point (sometimes it has terms for the derivative or for the accumulation of the error, but not always). In practice this means that it is hard to move the output away from the set point since the control system will respond by pushing in the opposite direction.

Comment by Measure on A.D&D.Sci May 2021: Interdimensional Monster Carcass Auction · 2021-05-18T14:06:53.158Z · LW · GW

If there are multiple universes, will the actual lot values be independent draws/rolls in each universe or one draw/roll for all universes?

Comment by Measure on Agency in Conway’s Game of Life · 2021-05-13T12:17:22.336Z · LW · GW

At a large enough scale the ash field would probably contain glider guns that would restart the chaos and expand the ash frontier.

Comment by Measure on Agency in Conway’s Game of Life · 2021-05-13T12:14:39.816Z · LW · GW

The common glider moves at C/4. I don't think there are any that are faster than that, but I'm pretty sure you can make "fuses" that can do a one-time relay at C/2 or maybe even C. You'd have to have an extremely sparse environment, though, to have time to rebuild your fuses.

I'm sceptical that you can make a wall against dense noise though. Maybe there are enough OOMs that you can have a large empty buffer to fill with ash and a wall beyond that?

Comment by Measure on MikkW's Shortform · 2021-05-10T22:05:54.049Z · LW · GW

Agreed, but my understanding is that most "libertarians" aren't trying to top-down maximize liberty or anything like that but are starting from state of nature and extrapolating some kind of social contract from there.

Comment by Measure on MikkW's Shortform · 2021-05-10T18:46:27.749Z · LW · GW

Even in a "state of nature" you need to work in order to live — even if that's just gathering food from the environment.

Comment by Measure on D&D.Sci May 2021: Monster Carcass Auction · 2021-05-10T14:01:44.661Z · LW · GW

Snow Serpent bid price is always 60/40/20 for 0/1/2 day old lots, never above 17 for older. Sale value is independent of age averaging around 27.2

Winter Wolf bid price is always 50/38 for 0/1 day old lots, never above 23 for older. Sale value ranges from 37.9 for 1d lots to 25.5 for 7d lots. Older than 7d probably not worth bidding on.

Yeti bid price is always 55/49/43/37 for 0/1/2/3 day old lots, never above 35 for older. Sale value ranges from 74.6 for 0d lots to around 42 for 9-11d lots.

Based on the anticipated bid price and expected sale value of each lot, I calculated a profit margin for each as (sale - win)/win.

   Lot #     Bid     Win    Sale  Profit  Margin  
       5      35      36    58.1    22.1   61.4%  
       8      17      18    27.2     9.2   51.1%  
      12      17      18    27.2     9.2   51.1%  
      13      23      24    34.4    10.4   43.3%  
       9      23      24    33.4     9.4   39.2%  
       1      55      56    74.6    18.6   33.2%  
       2      20      21    27.2     6.2   29.5%  
      10      23      24    25.5     1.5    6.3%  
       4      38      39    37.9    -1.1   -2.8%  
       6      38      39    37.9    -1.1   -2.8%  
      11      23      24    23.0    -1.0   -4.2%  
       3      40      41    27.2   -13.8  -33.7%  
       7      40      41    27.2   -13.8  -33.7%  

I had planned to use a greedy algorithm to pick the most profitable lots until I ran out of money, but actually I can afford to be competitive on all marginally profitable lots. My final bids are as follows. (* indicates I do not expect to win this lot.) I expect to spend 221sp on 8 lots and earn about 308sp from their sale.

Lot #1: 56sp
Lot #2: 21sp
Lot #3: 27sp*
Lot #4: 24sp*
Lot #5: 36sp
Lot #6: 24sp*
Lot #7: 27sp*
Lot #8: 18sp
Lot #9: 24sp
Lot #10: 24sp
Lot #11: 20sp*
Lot #12: 18sp
Lot #13: 24sp

Comment by Measure on a visual explanation of Bayesian updating · 2021-05-10T03:38:03.442Z · LW · GW

Then we got a miss, z=1

I think "miss" here should be "hit".

Comment by Measure on Migraine hallucinations, phenomenology, and cognition · 2021-05-08T17:35:44.496Z · LW · GW

Would you say the experience is similar to looking an an optical illusion and "experiencing" the illusory effect while "knowing" it doesn't match reality?

Comment by Measure on Crowdfunding Vaccine Development · 2021-05-08T11:57:19.941Z · LW · GW

Most of the value I get from vaccine development is in ending the pandemic as soon as possible, and this doesn't depend on my position in the queue. Thus I would be willing to spend a significant amount to kickstart vaccine development even with no change in queue order.

Comment by Measure on Covid 5/6: Vaccine Patent Suspension · 2021-05-07T03:22:15.003Z · LW · GW

absurd -> abused

Comment by Measure on Voting Assistants · 2021-05-06T11:24:57.824Z · LW · GW

I think a well-designed system would still hold politicians accountable since it would consider how likely a candidate is to keep their promises or to change positions when deciding whether a vote for them would be effective at realizing your preferences.

Comment by Measure on Voting Assistants · 2021-05-06T11:21:27.316Z · LW · GW

I would rather that my AI voting assistant learns my preferences and calculates the most effective way for me to vote (strategically), but then merely explains its reasoning and leaves the final decision up to me.

Comment by Measure on The Schelling Game (a.k.a. the Coordination Game) · 2021-05-06T02:44:50.640Z · LW · GW

In my version, clues are normal sentences/definitions. In edge cases it's up to the group to decide whether a word fits the clue.

Comment by Measure on The Schelling Game (a.k.a. the Coordination Game) · 2021-05-05T23:56:43.148Z · LW · GW

In the version I've played, any word that fits a clue is sufficient to rebut it (even if it's not the attacker's intended word). The attackers can then make a more specific clue for the intended word.

Comment by Measure on [deleted post] 2021-05-04T03:23:46.874Z

The short answer is that both statements are true, so the "or equal to" part is satisfied and the inequality holds. The values involved are probabilities over binary truth/falsity, not degrees of truth.

Comment by Measure on Death by Red Tape · 2021-05-02T00:00:52.418Z · LW · GW

At least in the TSA case, you have to consider that your adversity may be optimizing against you. Maybe you don't get very many attempted attacks precisely because you're putting effort into security. This isn't to say the current level of effort is optimal, just that you need more than simple cost-benefit calculation if your intervention decisions feed back into the event distribution.

Comment by Measure on Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold · 2021-04-27T15:54:09.670Z · LW · GW

Maybe Scott means cumulative cases here?

Comment by Measure on [deleted post] 2021-04-22T18:49:08.232Z

1a. Because it's a difficult process, it can't be assumed that everyone who is vaccinated will be able to provide such proof. This makes it difficult/expensive to require proof from large numbers of people.

Comment by Measure on Where are intentions to be found? · 2021-04-21T12:24:17.561Z · LW · GW

It's not obvious to me that the information you're looking for is not present in a single toe. In the same way that an advanced AI could discover General Relativity by carefully examining a few frames of a falling apple, couldn't it infer something about human/rabbit/rainforest values by observing the behavior of a toe? My concern would instead be that there is too much information and that the AI would pick out some values but not necessarily the ones you expect.

Comment by Measure on Covid 4/15: Are We Seriously Doing This Again · 2021-04-15T14:43:15.899Z · LW · GW

Can people who are prevented from getting the J&J vaccine due to the suspension and later get Covid sue the FDA?

Comment by Measure on Covid 4/15: Are We Seriously Doing This Again · 2021-04-15T14:42:01.060Z · LW · GW

"Note deaths" -> "Not deaths"