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Measure's Shortform 2020-11-27T05:22:34.678Z

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Comment by Measure on The 2023 LessWrong Review: The Basic Ask · 2024-12-05T14:32:03.344Z · LW · GW

What do the "Required unnominated" and "Required frontpage" filters do? In particular, unchecking "Required frontpage" seems to filter out frontpage posts rather than including both frontpage and non-frontpage as expected.

Comment by Measure on The 2023 LessWrong Review: The Basic Ask · 2024-12-05T14:27:16.905Z · LW · GW

If you include the implied (0,0) point, then the quadratic still fits.

Comment by Measure on 2024 Unofficial LessWrong Census/Survey · 2024-12-02T15:43:59.562Z · LW · GW

At least one of the rot13 questions has a title P(X and Y) that doesn't match the X and Y described in the question.

Comment by Measure on Which Biases are most important to Overcome? · 2024-12-02T14:37:42.435Z · LW · GW

I think most of these are "secretly adaptive/reasonable" in certain contexts.

  • Fundamental Attribution Error: Reduces computational load when predicting the behavior of strangers in short interactions.

  • Conjunction Fallacy: It's harder to tell a complex lie without getting caught, so complexity is evidence for honesty.

Comment by Measure on Magnitudes: Let's Comprehend the Incomprehensible! · 2024-12-02T14:23:19.198Z · LW · GW

Nuclear fusion fuel (also hydrogen) can get to 6×1014 J/kg, which is less than 3 OOMs off from the maximum.

We can even produce small amounts of anti-hydrogen, but not as a fuel.

Comment by Measure on Using hex to get murder advice from GPT-4o · 2024-11-14T14:35:35.754Z · LW · GW

It was probably thinking of sodium hydroxide rather than elemental sodium.

Comment by Measure on Should CA, TX, OK, and LA merge into a giant swing state, just for elections? · 2024-11-08T13:43:54.167Z · LW · GW

Although possibly the red candidate would care more about CATXOKLA red issues and the blue about CATXOKLA blue issues, so it just increases variance rather than expected satisfaction?

Comment by Measure on Should CA, TX, OK, and LA merge into a giant swing state, just for elections? · 2024-11-08T13:41:50.959Z · LW · GW

The advantage comes from having the parties care about your particular issues rather than those of the current swing states. This would look like both candidates being more favorable to you even if it's still 50-50 which of them wins (and even if they're still in roughly the same places on the left-right axis).

Comment by Measure on How to put California and Texas on the campaign trail! · 2024-11-06T14:31:57.203Z · LW · GW

I remember there was a movement a while back to have states agree to award their electors to the national proportional vote winner, but I'm not sure what came of that.

Comment by Measure on I turned decision theory problems into memes about trolleys · 2024-11-01T12:33:20.360Z · LW · GW

The problem statement says it's true (Omega did indeed send the message, and the problem statement says that only happens when the message is true).

I think, in effect, this boils down to Omega telling you "This stranger is a murderous psychopath. You'd better not give them the opportunity."

Comment by Measure on Habryka's Shortform Feed · 2024-10-29T16:06:02.009Z · LW · GW

Windows 10. I have a large HD monitor, and the default UI is really small, so I use the "make everything bigger" display setting at 150% to compensate. There is a separate "make text bigger" setting, and the problem goes away when I set that to 102%. I'm guessing there's a slight real difference that was being exaggerated by pixel rounding.

Comment by Measure on Habryka's Shortform Feed · 2024-10-29T11:31:06.516Z · LW · GW

I think this was caused by my OS-level UI scale setting. I didn't notice anything with the previous font, but I can adjust it a bit to work around this I think.

Comment by Measure on Habryka's Shortform Feed · 2024-10-29T11:21:51.056Z · LW · GW

Something weird is happening for me where 'e' and 'o' in italic text appear to extend below the line (wrong vertical size or position) so that the whole looks jumbled. It's very noticeable at 100% zoom, but at much higher zoom levels it goes away.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.

Comment by Measure on The hostile telepaths problem · 2024-10-29T11:05:54.926Z · LW · GW

The fact that Bob has this policy in the first place is more likely when he's being self-deceptive. Sure, some people will glomorize even when they have nothing to hide, but more often it will be the result of Bob noticing that he's the sort of person who might have something to hide.

It's a general rule that if E is strong evidence for X, then ~E is at least weak evidence for ~X.

Comment by Measure on Electrostatic Airships? · 2024-10-28T15:19:52.163Z · LW · GW

I think this is mostly about how weak air is against dielectric breakdown.

Comment by Measure on The hostile telepaths problem · 2024-10-28T12:50:04.517Z · LW · GW

it's not information about whether I'm secretly trying to two-box

It's still Bayesian evidence. Someone with a different policy (always deeply investigating themselves), could get Omega-C to have a higher credence of them one-boxing.  We'd have to specify how sure Omega has to be to offer the large payment (and what priors Omega has) to know if the choice of policy matters.

Comment by Measure on Claude Sonnet 3.5.1 and Haiku 3.5 · 2024-10-25T15:02:22.355Z · LW · GW

If you're reading this direct, this text is the last one that is wise like what's written between.

This sounds like it tried to encode something steganographically in the message? Maybe that accounts for some of the bizarre language.

Comment by Measure on Arithmetic is an underrated world-modeling technology · 2024-10-18T12:36:04.879Z · LW · GW

If you’re going to get one of those, then may I suggest that the same weight is given by almost exactly 4.5 Statues of Liberty?

How many chimps though?

Comment by Measure on Change My Mind: Thirders in "Sleeping Beauty" are Just Doing Epistemology Wrong · 2024-10-16T13:51:04.918Z · LW · GW

I separately think though that if the actual outcome of each coin flip was recorded, there would be a roughly equal distribution between heads and tails.

Importantly, this is counting each coinflip as the "experiment", whereas the above counts each awakening as the "experiment". It's okay that different experiments would see different outcome frequencies.

Comment by Measure on 2025 Color Trends · 2024-10-16T01:38:20.892Z · LW · GW

Les Misérables agrees.

Comment by Measure on D&D.Sci GURPS Dec 2021: Hunters of Monsters · 2024-10-09T12:39:38.939Z · LW · GW

I have a copy. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nuoPaQM4Ufc4LaCJ47wPavt-bACxlbMp/view]

Comment by Measure on Sherrinford's Shortform · 2024-09-27T20:00:43.562Z · LW · GW

There should be a dropdown menu at the left side in the input box (opposite the "submit" button).

Comment by Measure on Sherrinford's Shortform · 2024-09-27T12:56:57.174Z · LW · GW

Did you switch to the markdown editor?

Comment by Measure on [Completed] The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario · 2024-09-27T01:22:25.022Z · LW · GW

Congrats everyone!

Kudos to "GeneralAnderson" for the suggestion that generals report if their own side launches to help mitigate the unreliable report channel.

Comment by Measure on [Completed] The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario · 2024-09-26T19:48:53.641Z · LW · GW

To be clear, I wasn't trying to suggest that citizens could break the rules without getting caught. I was suggesting that they could disincentivize nuking without breaking the rules. If coordinated, distributed, mass downvoting is also disallowed, then we would have to come up with some other incentive.

Comment by Measure on [Completed] The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario · 2024-09-26T19:31:52.276Z · LW · GW

It doesn't have to be mass-downvoting in the sense of one user downvoting a mass of post/comments. Rather a mass of users downvoting a few comments each. 150 citizens * 10 downvotes each more than wipes out the 1000 karma victory bonus.

Comment by Measure on [Completed] The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario · 2024-09-26T19:13:48.091Z · LW · GW

Where is the Diplomatic Channels dialogue located?

Comment by Measure on Struggling like a Shadowmoth · 2024-09-24T13:24:27.655Z · LW · GW

no longer possible

did you mean "no longer impossible"?

Comment by Measure on We Don't Know Our Own Values, but Reward Bridges The Is-Ought Gap · 2024-09-20T13:34:37.821Z · LW · GW

This seems similar to the ant larvae situation where they reflectively argue around the hardcoded reward signal. Hurting people might still be considered a value the sadist has, but it trades off against other values.

Comment by Measure on Monthly Roundup #22: September 2024 · 2024-09-17T19:22:46.965Z · LW · GW

Consumer behavior is otherwise mostly unchanged.

Do consumers change their platform-level behavior because of (lack of) such cancelations?  If not, why do platforms do this?

Comment by Measure on Spade's Shortform · 2024-09-12T13:39:23.740Z · LW · GW

I must also note that it's incredibly disappointing that I will likely never taste apple juice in that way again, it was probably one of the best drinks I've ever had.

You could repeat the taste suppression/recovery process if you wanted.

Comment by Measure on Is Redistributive Taxation Justifiable? Part 1: Do the Rich Deserve their Wealth? · 2024-09-06T12:50:53.954Z · LW · GW

After all, do we not generally hold to the principle that someone who has moral and legal right to money, also has the right to choose how to allocate that money? What else could the idea of property mean? If something is your property, you may do as you wish with it: use, sell, destroy.[6] Why should this stop at giving it to someone?

Doesn't this apply to other forms of income too?  If my employer chooses to compensate me at a certain level, or if my customers choose to buy my products/services at a certain price, don't I have a right to that income via their right to free allocation of their money?

Comment by Measure on SB 1047: Final Takes and Also AB 3211 · 2024-08-28T14:47:41.711Z · LW · GW

No one would use it if not forced to?

Comment by Measure on LessWrong email subscriptions? · 2024-08-28T14:12:30.375Z · LW · GW

It's pretty horrible. It doesn't even fit on one screen

Obvious suggestion would be to reduce the font size of the headers so that the dropdowns below can be moved to the same line, but maybe that's irrelevant if more substantial changes are being made.

Comment by Measure on Am I confused about the "malign universal prior" argument? · 2024-08-28T13:49:49.995Z · LW · GW

We (i.e. "reasoning beings in computable universes") can influence the UP, but we can't reason about it well enough to use that influence.  Meanwhile, we can reason about things that are more like the speed prior -- but we can't influence them.

Did one of these can/can't pairs get flipped? 

Comment by Measure on My Apartment Art Commission Process · 2024-08-27T18:36:55.278Z · LW · GW

My guess is starting with the minimal resolution pixel art mean you can control the upscaling process and don't have to deal with any artifacts introduced in previous upscaling.

Comment by Measure on RussellThor's Shortform · 2024-08-26T19:46:45.689Z · LW · GW

Unlimited evaluation can never get to BB(6) so that is the limit of evidence from evaluation.

The value of BB(6) is not currently known, but it could in principle be discovered. There is no general algorithm for calculating BB numbers, but any particular BB(n) could be determined by enumerating all n-state Turing machines and proving whether each one halts.

Comment by Measure on you should probably eat oatmeal sometimes · 2024-08-26T14:31:03.568Z · LW · GW

Also worth trying: Replace the water/milk with coffee. I first tried this while camping (to avoid having to boil additional water), and I found it surprisingly good.

Comment by Measure on Monthly Roundup #21: August 2024 · 2024-08-21T19:26:30.961Z · LW · GW

Or here’s a call for ‘militant democracy’ which means shutting down the opposition’s media entirely.

link missing

Comment by Measure on Decision Theory in Space · 2024-08-18T18:12:19.931Z · LW · GW

Not to mention that in canon, the rebel base in question was on Yavin IV. The droids with the stolen plans were indeed on Tatooine, but the empire already knew that.

Comment by Measure on Self-Other Overlap: A Neglected Approach to AI Alignment · 2024-08-01T11:30:45.912Z · LW · GW

If I want an AI to get me a sandwich, I don't want the AI to get itself a sandwich.

You solve this problem when you recognize your foot as part of yourself without trying to feed it a sandwich.

Comment by Measure on AI #72: Denying the Future · 2024-07-12T19:05:19.513Z · LW · GW

Was it intended that the "Lighter Side" section be empty, or did the post get cut off?

Comment by Measure on Economics Roundup #2 · 2024-07-02T13:37:15.788Z · LW · GW

I like this trick:

Jenny Chase: Some bad things about Switzerland: low tax rates and high salaries act as a brain drain on surrounding countries (hi). This is how a poor country has become a very rich one in less than a hundred years.

Rob Henderson: I like to imagine the Bizarro universe of opposites when I see tweets like this. “Some good things about Switzerland: high tax rates and low salaries motivate skilled citizens to flee (hi). This is how a rich country has become a very poor one in less than a hundred years.”

These could both be bad if viewed as zero-sum disruptions (with negative second-order effects).

Comment by Measure on Economics Roundup #2 · 2024-07-02T13:30:20.907Z · LW · GW

Mostly this seems like

Did the sentence get cut off, or is this an intentionally implied "seems like [nothing.]"?

Comment by Measure on Childhood and Education Roundup #6: College Edition · 2024-06-27T16:30:51.336Z · LW · GW

It's unclear whether the 48% is 48% of all applicants or 48% of White liars. I'm still not sure where the 5.8% number came from.

Comment by Measure on AI #67: Brief Strange Trip · 2024-06-06T19:26:55.291Z · LW · GW

Women are smarter than men. They avoid academic PhDs and OpenAI.

If 18% of graduates are women, then OpenAI is hiring proportionally.

Comment by Measure on Searching Magic Cards · 2024-06-03T18:56:30.169Z · LW · GW

But it got me wondering: does it happen that there are any textual uses of the six basic land types [1] that are not intended to be about a basic land? For example, if a card happened to use the word "forestall", perhaps you could do something fun with it?

Unfortunately, the Comprehensive Rules has anticipated your "cool hack" and is one step ahead of you:

612.2. A text-changing effect changes only those words that are used in the correct way (for example, a Magic color word being used as a color word, a land type word used as a land type, or a creature type word used as a creature type). An effect that changes a color word or a subtype can’t change a card name, even if that name contains a word or a series of letters that is the same as a Magic color word, basic land type, or creature type.

Comment by Measure on Arjun Panickssery's Shortform · 2024-05-24T13:40:30.363Z · LW · GW

Rate my ex's poem.

Comment by Measure on A case for fairness-enforcing irrational behavior · 2024-05-16T16:29:12.921Z · LW · GW

You might precommit to fairness if you don't know which side of the game you'll be playing or if you anticipate being punished by onlookers, but I don't know if I want my AI to be "fair" to an alien paperclipper that can't retaliate.

Comment by Measure on A case for fairness-enforcing irrational behavior · 2024-05-16T16:00:30.816Z · LW · GW

The typical algorithm I've seen for enforcing fairness is to reject unfair offers randomly with some probability such that the counterparty's EV decreases with increasing unfairness of the offer. This incentivizes fair offers without completely burning the possibility of partial cooperation between agents with slightly differing notions of fairness.