Help forecast study replication in this social science prediction market

post by rosiecam · 2019-08-07T18:18:03.102Z · LW · GW · 3 comments

This is a linkpost for: https://www.replicationmarkets.com/

From their sign-up page:

Help the Replication Markets team spot reliable science, and win $$!

From mid-2019 to mid-2020, we will run prediction markets on 3,000 recently-published social and behavioral science claims. We want you to forecast the outcomes of possible replication trials. On average, only about 50% of published social science results replicate, but it’s not a coin toss: four previous markets have been about 75% accurate. We think we can beat 80%, while forecasting 10-100x as many claims.

Join us to improve social and behavioral science, try new kinds of markets and surveys, and earn $$ prizes. (Over $100,000 in total prizes, distributed via Google Pay, among a target pool of 500 forecasters based on accuracy and contributions.)

Please look around, see the Replication Markets Home Page for more details, or click “Sign Up” to join.

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