Help forecast study replication in this social science prediction market

post by rosiecam · 2019-08-07T18:18:03.102Z · score: 30 (7 votes) · LW · GW · 3 comments

This is a linkpost for: https://www.replicationmarkets.com/

From their sign-up page:

Help the Replication Markets team spot reliable science, and win $$!
From mid-2019 to mid-2020, we will run prediction markets on 3,000 recently-published social and behavioral science claims. We want you to forecast the outcomes of possible replication trials. On average, only about 50% of published social science results replicate, but it’s not a coin toss: four previous markets have been about 75% accurate. We think we can beat 80%, while forecasting 10-100x as many claims.
Join us to improve social and behavioral science, try new kinds of markets and surveys, and earn $$ prizes. (Over $100,000 in total prizes, distributed via Google Pay, among a target pool of 500 forecasters based on accuracy and contributions.)
Please look around, see the Replication Markets Home Page for more details, or click “Sign Up” to join.

3 comments

Comments sorted by top scores.

comment by romeostevensit · 2019-08-07T19:05:20.623Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

First linky no worky.

Signed up.

comment by Pattern · 2019-08-07T19:26:36.800Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Links still work, I think it's a cross-posting issue.

Link.

(Details: If you click on it, it goes to: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XzetppcF8BNoDqFBs/https://www.lesswrong.com/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.replicationmarkets.com%2F [LW · GW]

If you shorten that to:

https://www.lesswrong.com/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.replicationmarkets.com%2F [LW · GW]

It redirects to:

https://www.replicationmarkets.com/ )

comment by habryka (habryka4) · 2019-08-07T19:48:11.920Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yeah, bug on our side. Just merging a PR that fixes it. Will be fixed within the day.

https://github.com/LessWrong2/Lesswrong2/pull/2264#pullrequestreview-272171432