Help forecast study replication in this social science prediction market

post by rosiecam · 2019-08-07T18:18:03.102Z · score: 30 (7 votes) · LW · GW · 3 comments

This is a linkpost for:

From their sign-up page:

Help the Replication Markets team spot reliable science, and win $$!
From mid-2019 to mid-2020, we will run prediction markets on 3,000 recently-published social and behavioral science claims. We want you to forecast the outcomes of possible replication trials. On average, only about 50% of published social science results replicate, but it’s not a coin toss: four previous markets have been about 75% accurate. We think we can beat 80%, while forecasting 10-100x as many claims.
Join us to improve social and behavioral science, try new kinds of markets and surveys, and earn $$ prizes. (Over $100,000 in total prizes, distributed via Google Pay, among a target pool of 500 forecasters based on accuracy and contributions.)
Please look around, see the Replication Markets Home Page for more details, or click “Sign Up” to join.


Comments sorted by top scores.

comment by romeostevensit · 2019-08-07T19:05:20.623Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

First linky no worky.

Signed up.

comment by Pattern · 2019-08-07T19:26:36.800Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Links still work, I think it's a cross-posting issue.


(Details: If you click on it, it goes to: [LW · GW]

If you shorten that to: [LW · GW]

It redirects to: )

comment by habryka (habryka4) · 2019-08-07T19:48:11.920Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yeah, bug on our side. Just merging a PR that fixes it. Will be fixed within the day.