Good luck, Mr. Rationalist

You mean we don't already have more than enough of those?

I'm far from convinced that this approach to rationality should be bound to a single tribal identification. True enough, tribal bonding is useful in the right situations, and identifying strongly with, say, your local meetup group seems like it could be instrumentally valuable for many of our contributors, but it seems far sketchier for LW as a whole: we're delving into difficult and controversial territory here, and going full-bore tribal in our organizational tactics seems like a good way to devalue outside views on our stuff that we really need to be considering.

I agree. See Richard Wiseman's "The Luck Factor", Skeptical Inquirer (May/June, 2003). Wiseman is a public psychologist, paranormal investigator and author of 59 Seconds (free copy; Anki deck), arguably the best scientific self-help book out there.

EDIT: I just saw that Trevor_Blake had already posted a link to Wiseman's paper on luck.

There's two very different reasons to say phrases, and your suggestions here are for something different than the circumstances you say "Good luck" in.

Sort of similar to the phrase "What's up?" or "How are you doing?" - the purpose is not to respond with a detailed (or even short but accurate) explanation of how you're doing. You're supposed to say "fine, you?"

You're not exchanging information, you are engaging in a short social bonding ritual in which you acknowledge each other's presence and familiarity before either moving on (either to a real conversation, small talk, getting down to some particular task, or parting ways). On special occasions, when it's the right time, you might actually inquire "Hey, how have you been doing lately? Haven't seen you a while?" and then one would respond with a serious, informative answer.

Similarly, "Good luck" is not (usually) a heartfelt thing you say to earnestly convey how you wish someone to do, it's a reflexive thing you say in the midst of a complex social situation. When you do want to earnestly convey a heartfelt wellwishing, you probably want to take the time to come up with something customized to the situation rather than a short, memorizable catchphrase.

The issue (as I understand it, anyway), is that one might want to build up a repertoire of short social-glue catchphrases that collectively build up certain ideas, or don't promote ideas you don't like. For example, "God Bless", even by earnest believers, is mostly an empty phrase you use as social-glue, not an earnest expression of the desire for God to bless someone, but it still over time builds up a normalcy of "God is important."

I think "Good luck" is reasonable (rationalists should believe in luck), but if we do want to promoting skill, specifically, then it may be good to find something easy to say, short, which emphasizes that.

It also implies that it's not down to you, but to some sort of chance.

Outcomes of our actions are influenced by our actions, and are also influenced by external forces - often ones we don't know about in advance. Believing that fact can plausibly have a negative impact on one's motivation and performance. But there is also a positive aspect to having your locus of control moved outward, other than the whole accurate beliefs thing: a poor outcome is less indicative of poor performance, and a very good outcome doesn't have to reflect an outlier performance one is doomed to regressed away from, but merely an outlier event, unrelated to your skill level - a skill level which surely isn't waning to the detriment of your performance in status-granting contests, no sir.

I'm using these.

"Freeze long and proper" for the cryonically inclined Trekkies.

I'll assume here that the speaker is neither culturally Japanese nor in Japan. Even under that assumption, being able to speak Japanese probably doesn't imply geekdom too strongly -- strictly speaking it's evidence for it, but most anime fans never learn the language past a few catchphrases, and it's not that uncommon a language in the West as non-Western European languages go.

However, using a Japanese phrase in a casual context implies quite a different set of things. You might be using it as tribal attire, which probably means you're an anime fan. You might expect it to carry meaning, which outside of a Japanese-run business, a language classroom, or a dojo probably implies that you're hanging out with anime fans. Or you might just be used to using it, which usually implies plenty of experience with one of the above.

But if it is, you could try "SoH retlhDaq Suvjaj qeylIS!" ("May Kahless fight beside you!")

Ah, right. I think a nonrandom variable situation actually came up and I said "May the unknown variables be in your favor" or "May the hidden variables be in your favor".

I haven't watched Hunger Games. Or read it. I do like that phrasing, though.

Will using it give the wrong impression?

Is that not the intended interpretation?

How about "I am sympathetic and supportive," then?