Posts

[Link] Digital Democracy Is Within Reach 2020-11-11T22:12:41.438Z
Efficient Market Frontier 2020-08-22T23:52:06.063Z
What posts on finance would your find helpful or interesting? 2020-08-22T04:31:51.804Z
"The Holy Grail" of portfolio management 2020-08-22T04:25:55.199Z
Dissolving the "Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis Dead?" Question 2020-08-02T04:46:39.481Z
The Mind: Board Game Review 2020-05-10T00:45:56.456Z
What research has been done on the altruistic impact of the usual good actions? 2020-01-27T19:33:16.818Z
Is it worthwhile to save the cord blood and tissue? 2020-01-11T21:52:24.256Z
New Petrov Game Brainstorm 2019-10-03T19:48:14.009Z
What tools exist to compute all possible programs? 2019-09-09T16:50:57.162Z
Mapping of enneagram to MTG personality types 2019-07-29T15:20:09.115Z
Watch Elon Musk’s Neuralink presentation 2019-07-19T21:48:11.162Z
Black hole narratives 2019-07-07T04:07:11.835Z
Crypto quant trading: Naive Bayes 2019-05-07T19:29:40.507Z
Swarm AI (tool) 2019-05-01T23:39:51.553Z
Crypto quant trading: Intro 2019-04-17T20:52:53.279Z
[Link] OpenAI LP 2019-03-12T23:22:59.861Z
Link: That Time a Guy Tried to Build a Utopia for Mice and it all Went to Hell 2019-01-23T06:27:05.219Z
What's up with Arbital? 2017-03-29T17:22:21.751Z
Toy problem: increase production or use production? 2014-07-05T20:58:48.962Z
Quantum Decisions 2014-05-12T21:49:11.133Z
Personal examples of semantic stopsigns 2013-12-06T02:12:01.708Z
Maximizing Your Donations via a Job 2013-05-05T23:19:05.116Z
Low hanging fruit: analyzing your nutrition 2012-05-05T05:20:14.372Z
Robot Programmed To Love Goes Too Far (link) 2012-04-28T01:21:45.465Z
I'm starting a game company and looking for a co-founder. 2012-03-18T00:07:01.670Z
Water Fluoridation 2012-02-17T04:33:00.064Z
What happens when your beliefs fully propagate 2012-02-14T07:53:25.005Z
Rationality and Video Games 2011-09-18T19:26:01.716Z
Credit card that donates to SIAI. 2011-07-22T18:30:35.207Z
Futurama does an episode on nano-technology. 2011-06-27T02:44:14.496Z
Considering all scenarios when using Bayes' theorem. 2011-06-20T18:11:34.810Z
Discussion for Eliezer Yudkowsky's paper: Timeless Decision Theory 2011-01-06T00:28:29.202Z
Life-tracking application for android 2010-12-11T01:48:11.676Z

Comments

Comment by Alexei on Open and Welcome Thread - May 2021 · 2021-05-05T01:35:39.069Z · LW · GW

My cryptocurrency quant hedge fund is looking to hire engineers. If you're curious, PM me. :)

Comment by Alexei on Why I Work on Ads · 2021-05-04T19:02:44.113Z · LW · GW

Well, I already tried recruiting you for our hedge fund, so not really. :D Although it's possible with covid there's a larger pool of remote jobs available.


But yeah, given all those constraints, it's quite possible you're in a relatively optimal position.

Comment by Alexei on Why I Work on Ads · 2021-05-04T17:21:51.005Z · LW · GW

First off, kudos for putting your view up for criticism.

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the opportunity cost. Putting the question of whether or not ads are good or bad aside, do you think you can find a job that creates more good in the world and pays about the same?

Comment by Alexei on Open and Welcome Thread - May 2021 · 2021-05-03T16:14:14.382Z · LW · GW

Very cool, this sounds a lot like my own story too. Welcome to the club!

Comment by Alexei on April 2021 Deep Dive: Transformers and GPT-3 · 2021-05-02T03:46:28.181Z · LW · GW

I like this format a lot: here’s what I wanted to learn, here’s what I did, here’s my proposed better method. I. A world where we learn things via an amalgamation of blog posts and videos, this seems like an efficient way of helping others learn.

I think there should be a tag for this method!

Comment by Alexei on April 2021 Deep Dive: Transformers and GPT-3 · 2021-05-02T03:43:58.452Z · LW · GW

Thank you, this looks extremely useful. It’s been on my todo list to learn about transformers for a while. And this looks like a great path to follow. I commit to respond with how my learning went once I follow this guide. (Will probably be later this year.)

Comment by Alexei on AMA: Paul Christiano, alignment researcher · 2021-04-29T20:11:35.815Z · LW · GW

What are your thoughts / advice on working as an individual vs joining an existing team / company when it comes to safety research? (For yourself and for others)

Comment by Alexei on Young kids catching COVID: how much to worry? · 2021-04-20T19:16:28.933Z · LW · GW

Thank you for looking into this and posting about it. This question has been on my mind a lot.

Comment by Alexei on Problems of evil · 2021-04-20T15:08:54.611Z · LW · GW

Strong upvote from me. I appreciate the decently broad source of quotes and I hope you've read some of that material fully. I think the question is interesting and worth serious pondering, though I'm a bit sceptical as to how much progress on it is really possible outside of individualistic discovery via something like meditation.

Father love and mother love is an interesting way of looking at it. Though it's not clear "Father Love" is actually a thing or just something we projected onto actually existing "Mother Love."

To me actually the problem of evil seems relatively unimportant. Just drop the "omnipotent," which doesn't make much sense anyway. (Why work with infinities when finite things are way more likely?)* The much bigger, much more interesting problem is the lack of communication.

Humans are certainly not the best at speaking or listening. But we understand some things.  You could imagine god explaining things to us at our level, even if only to say: hey, you guys are just getting started; don't worry, nothing makes sense so far, but in about 1000 lifetimes it will.

I have some thoughts / responses to that question, but that's not really the topic here.

* Edit: Not to suggest that this is necessarily the solution, but there are a number of solutions with which I'm fairly satisfied. 

Comment by Alexei on Rising rents and appropriate responses · 2021-04-18T20:04:14.769Z · LW · GW

It’s funny you mention Texas because a lot of Bay Area people in the past few years left for Austin, Texas.

Comment by Alexei on Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places · 2021-04-14T23:33:59.905Z · LW · GW

Satvik mentioned you had a way to go from hash to the source code?

Comment by Alexei on A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking] · 2021-04-14T00:03:10.958Z · LW · GW

Not sure I follow. What prevents republicans from joining democrats?

I think the point is that you get peoples opt into the party and then show during elections that this party can indeed swing votes. That’s the proof of work.

Comment by Alexei on A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking] · 2021-04-13T23:59:14.426Z · LW · GW

No I don’t have time for this unfortunately. I suppose it’s probably worth at the very least publishing this on medium and posting to relevant subreddits.

Comment by Alexei on A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking] · 2021-04-13T02:06:28.210Z · LW · GW

I like this a lot and I think it’s worth serious effort to research some of the assumptions and obvious failure points (brought up by others here, although I think half of them are not addressing the core of your proposal)

Comment by Alexei on [LINK] Luck, Skill, and Improving at Games · 2021-04-11T21:33:01.631Z · LW · GW

Nice post. Haven’t heard of Flesh and Blood before, I’ll check it out. But yeah, poker strikes me as the fastest way to learn this skill since each “match” is so fast, especially online.

Comment by Alexei on Another (outer) alignment failure story · 2021-04-08T01:48:21.401Z · LW · GW

I’m curious how brain uploading / intelligence amplification interacts with this scenario. It’s possible we would be able to keep up for longer.

Comment by Alexei on Vim · 2021-04-08T01:32:44.166Z · LW · GW

For any given thing you want to do imagine what it would take to do it without Vim and it’s just more & usually more awkward key strokes.

I’d say the only place where I still use mouse is to jump to a completely random place in code.

Comment by Alexei on Vim · 2021-04-07T20:28:32.508Z · LW · GW

I think about ~1year into using vim, I thought the same thing: I’m doing the same thing, just with more quicker steps, so it feels faster. But after that I persisted and now it’s actually faster. Part of it is expanding your repertoire and memorizing it (where you don’t have to think about it at all). Also vim editor by itself I still find very clunky, but using vim shortcuts in something like PyCharm is $$$!

Comment by Alexei on Vim · 2021-04-07T15:27:10.581Z · LW · GW

Nice; didn't know about ;

Comment by Alexei on What will GPT-4 be incapable of? · 2021-04-07T01:54:00.984Z · LW · GW

For me it would be: gpt4 would propose a legal next move to all 1000 random chess games.

Comment by Alexei on Preventing overcharging by prosecutors · 2021-04-06T14:39:08.302Z · LW · GW

Yeah, I agree with that. But 20% seems within that range for me (especially for very bad crimes). Is 10%? Not sure.

Comment by Alexei on Preventing overcharging by prosecutors · 2021-04-06T14:07:50.677Z · LW · GW

I would expect that many juries will automatically throw out a 10% or 20% charges because there will be people on the jury who would argue that the prosecutor thinking that there's only a 20% chance that a charge holds means that there's reasonable doubt against the charge.

So then nobody would assign low likelihood charges? I guess that’s a feature of the proposed system, but it seems like a flaw to me. (Probably minor)

Comment by Alexei on Rationalism before the Sequences · 2021-03-31T04:13:17.241Z · LW · GW

5 for me. I read Dancing with Gods a long time ago and it’s very memorable. But had no idea about anything else.

Comment by Alexei on Enabling Children · 2021-03-16T13:05:39.345Z · LW · GW

No idea yet,

Comment by Alexei on A Semitechnical Introductory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction · 2021-03-10T22:58:21.815Z · LW · GW

I had a related question I'm still looking for a good answer to: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QCSEFxtNPXr5vsZyf/what-tools-exist-to-compute-all-possible-programs

Comment by Alexei on Open & Welcome Thread – March 2021 · 2021-03-10T00:30:10.077Z · LW · GW

About three years ago, I started a quantitative cryptocurrency hedge fund with my brother and Satvik. We have been doing pretty well, and in addition to raising more $$ this year, we have decided to expand our team. We're looking for a few potential roles:

  1.  Quants: expected background in quantitative trading + some engineering skills
  2.  Developers: at least 5+ years of experience; familiarity with AWS, ETL, data quality assurance and writing fast code are plusses
  3.  Researchers: we give you the data / problem and you do your magic; this role can be part-time / consulting; expected background: PhD or similarly deep understanding of your "magic"

You can PM me on this website (or email me).

If you don't fit these buckets, but you're very interested and you think you could help us, PM me anyway.

Comment by Alexei on A Semitechnical Introductory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction · 2021-03-07T07:02:26.019Z · LW · GW

Anyone knows of 3rd party libraries that implement something like this?

Comment by Alexei on Enabling Children · 2021-03-03T01:55:42.486Z · LW · GW

Sure, I’m interested. But like you pointed out it’s pretty difficult to pull off. One of the biggest consideration is finding the right people.

I think ThomasJ makes a good point that it might be easier to find the right “neighborhood” that already has the right kind of people.

Comment by Alexei on Fake Frameworks for Zen Meditation (Summary of Sekida's Zen Training) · 2021-02-07T00:59:29.426Z · LW · GW

Very nice! Thank you. I almost didn’t read it because from the title I expected it to be about something else. It would probably be helpful to explicitly say that this is a book summary in the post title.

Comment by Alexei on Reflections on the cryonics sequence · 2021-02-04T01:09:28.424Z · LW · GW

That’s awesome! Thank you for doing this.

Comment by Alexei on What posts on finance would your find helpful or interesting? · 2021-01-16T15:55:26.212Z · LW · GW

What exactly do you mean by door of entry? Like a way to get into the industry? Or start trading yourself?

Comment by Alexei on The impact merge · 2021-01-14T06:38:36.312Z · LW · GW

Thanks, but these seem to be discussing pride in general. I am curious specifically about the “You have to be the one who has controlled/owed a particular choice in the ways that matter in order to be proud of it or its outcomes.” part. Do you know where you picked up that bit?

Comment by Alexei on What is the currency of the future? 5 suggestions. · 2021-01-14T06:34:13.248Z · LW · GW

Resources like corn and oil are typically called commodities in this context.

Comment by Alexei on The impact merge · 2021-01-13T22:56:37.257Z · LW · GW

Interesting! Any links / videos you’d recommend exploring that point?

Comment by Alexei on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-09T06:08:47.873Z · LW · GW

How likely are you to get infected from someone who has been infected a while ago (say a month) compared to a random person? What about from someone who was vaccinated?

Comment by Alexei on Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over · 2020-12-29T16:51:34.378Z · LW · GW

Odds are the same but it’s the difference between 10 flips and a 100.

Comment by Alexei on How to eradicate the desire to check time-wasting sites · 2020-12-21T05:58:06.383Z · LW · GW

Same here. That’s why I stopped using FB. And that’s currently my main filter for whether to continue engaging with something.

Comment by Alexei on What confusions do people have about simulacrum levels? · 2020-12-15T18:48:04.332Z · LW · GW

Right...! I think that's a very good point on the usefulness of the model. Like, I find it interesting and useful as a model, but I don't think I've ever applied it in practice.

Comment by Alexei on What confusions do people have about simulacrum levels? · 2020-12-14T20:47:04.387Z · LW · GW

Hmm it’s not that I find them confusing, and I even managed to explain them to someone who didn’t know about them. I think it just feels... too high complexity or something. Like there’s a simpler version just around the corner. Maybe I’d benefit from 3 positive and negative real life examples of each level.

Comment by Alexei on Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1 · 2020-12-13T15:12:38.183Z · LW · GW

Can I use computer to prepare for part 1, as long as I don’t try to memorize any bit sequences?

Comment by Alexei on D&D.Sci Evaluation and Ruleset · 2020-12-12T18:31:43.571Z · LW · GW

Seconded. Very happy with the solution and the resulting reflection on my attempt.

Comment by Alexei on Covid 12/10: Vaccine Approval Day in America · 2020-12-11T05:27:26.077Z · LW · GW

If someone got COVID how long do they need to wait to get tested so that the test correctly identifies them as positive?

Comment by Alexei on [deleted post] 2020-12-10T05:23:09.419Z

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dream_yoga

Note the part where it says that it’s usually passed on by a teacher. It’s entirely possible to meet this teacher in your dream; in your case, the coach.

Comment by Alexei on [deleted post] 2020-12-10T05:20:43.942Z

A number of spiritual traditions have their most advanced practices in dream realms.

Comment by Alexei on D&D.Sci · 2020-12-07T05:53:12.649Z · LW · GW

Nice find!

Comment by Alexei on D&D.Sci · 2020-12-06T16:14:26.628Z · LW · GW

You can do spoilers with >! although it's kind of finicky. 

 One problem with your strategy is that the stats follow a normal distribution. This means that there are more students with average stats. That's why your algo invests in the lowest stat: because that's the biggest delta in terms of students.

Comment by Alexei on D&D.Sci · 2020-12-06T16:05:36.053Z · LW · GW

My research so far:

Made graphs of stat vs prob of success. Pretty clean linear relationships between each stat and increase in success, except for dexterity. That seems to hurt.  
Checked for correlations between stats; none detected.  
Given that we can't go down in stats, I also looked at the data for students whose stats are at least as high as ours. Did linear regression on that; seems like Dex helps in this case, but there are a lot fewer samples, so I'm going to chuck it up to noise.

Going off all the data, Wis and Cha have the highest slope. (Cha is slightly higher.) So I'd invest evenly in both. Going off the conditioned data, Cha has the highest slope. So I'll shift to +7 Cha and +3 Wis.

One thing I also thought about is coming up with various hypotheses, Zendo style. E.g. "you win if your Str > Dex" or "you win if the sum of your lowest three stats is > 10" But I don't think that's the nature of the problem.

Comment by Alexei on D&D.Sci · 2020-12-06T02:43:32.381Z · LW · GW

Do we have to spend all 10 points?

Comment by Alexei on D&D.Sci · 2020-12-06T02:25:09.174Z · LW · GW

Hmm, normally I don't participate in things like these... but something about this one appeals to me. So why not! Let's give it a shot.

What are the guidelines for posting my research / insights?

Comment by Alexei on Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations · 2020-11-28T21:52:55.876Z · LW · GW

I agree with the sentiment. Although I think this should be a comment, not an answer.