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Thanks for the review!
I will start by saying that the odds and evens structure isn't especially original. I've seen similar things discussed in previous posts and comments, mostly as a dimension of a 2x2 grid. As such, your review seems like the classic quote, falsely attributed to Samuel Johnson: "this is both original and good, but the original parts aren't good and the good parts aren't original".
Of course, I disagree with that (if I thought the new levels weren't useful, I wouldn't have come up with them), and will try to explain why the original parts are good, or at least have some value.
To start with, level -1. This is pretty useless. I'm not sure it actually even exists, it's just a natural consequence of the structure. Inasmuch as it does exist, it is incompatible with the existence of an agent. Perhaps the view of a camera would be level -1.
However, I see levels 5 and 6 as real, useful, and importantly not the same as levels 3 and 4.
Specifically, I see levels 5 and 6 as ungrounded. Levels 3 and 4 are not grounded in object-level reality, but are at least grounded in something, namely signalling and tribal affiliation. While "there's a lion across the river" no longer means anything about actual lions, it still means something. It could not be replaced with "there's a foobar across the bazquux".
At the recursive tier, the words "lion" and "river" become irrelevant, and the system of references no longer roots itself in reality. Now this could presumably be considered "mask[ing] the absence of a basic reality", but I'm not sure it even masks it. Reality is just absent. This is Baudrillard's true level 4 of "pure simulacrum".
Part of me wants to renumber the entire system, given that this is allegedly Baudrillard's model. In this case, the political tier would all be level 3 and the recursive tier would all be level 4.
What, Dimir Bastard?
I'm not entirely sure my use of that example as level 5 was accurate, it might actually be levels 3 and 6, because the goal of the slogan is to change people's maps to include a recursive statement rather than merely to express a belief in a recursive statement.
I have found a separate post that firms up the dodgy second paragraph. I would have linked to it, but while there's a time loop involved in the theory, there wasn't enough of one to link to a post written in 2024 in my post in 2022.
This is very closely related to a discussion in my post on simulacra levels, but I think this is importantly false.
Yes, mathematics refers to nothing outside itself, but that is not to say that things within it cannot prove other things within it. It is a highly abstract field (my simulacra level 5, which is a form of Baudrillard's 4), but that is not why it hasn't been solved.
Take the question "what is 2 + 2". This is made up of pure abstraction (calling this abstraction simply "1s" is not actually correct - "1" is a quantity defined in this abstraction), and does not directly apply to reality, except through a translation layer where the symbol "2" is equated to * *. However, the answer is still 4.
It's a shame I wasn't able to use a time loop to have this exist when I wrote my post on Newcomb's problem being an iterated PD.
This concept is exactly what I needed, and it's explained far better than I did.
Expanding on the Y>W=Z>X and X>W=Z>Y, I would split Abundant Commons at Y=Z, into Abundant Commons above the line and Deadlock below it. Then, the games equated are Deadlock and the PD, and those form a natural continuum.
Loosely and non-rigorously, x/0 is infinite, and so all games with W=Z are extreme forms of the corner games (unless X=W=Z or Y=W=Z). X~Y>W=Z gets you an anti-coordination game and W=Z>X~Y gets you a pure or relatively pure coordination game (Let's Party).
Y>W=Z>X and X>W=Z>Y are interesting, because they equate games as different as the PD (or Too Many Cooks) and Abundant Commons. I would describe this game as more similar to the Abundant Commons than the PD, as Flitz/Flitz is a perfectly acceptable equilibrium. The value transfer here is neither hyperefficient nor inefficient, but merely efficient.
The triple equalities here are equivalent under name change, so, WLOG, let's take X=W=Z. Then, there are two games: Y>X and Y<X. Looking at the diagram, X=W=Z>Y should resemble Studying for a Test, while Y>X=W=Z should resemble the Farmer's Dilemma.
The former game has a primary theme of avoiding Y, and so, while Flitz/Flitz is an equilibrium, I would expect to see more Krump/Krump, as it is never beneficial to play Flitz when there's any risk of Krump.
The latter game is more complex, but the equilibrium you actually see is Flitz/Flitz, because the only way to get Y is if you play Flitz.
Finally, with all four equal, there is no longer much of a game. All strategies are equilibria, the payoff is identical in each case. This is the trivial game.
I think your 5% figure of KABOOM given retaliation fails to condition on kaboom.
I would estimate an 8% chance of kaboom (broadly following prediction markets, going by a 10% chance of the order to nuke Ukraine and an 80% chance of it actually happening) and an 80% chance of retaliation. For KABOOM, either the West or Russia would drop the first strategic nuke. For the West, the probability is somewhere around 0.1% given kaboom. For Russia, while the probability of KABOOM given escalation is probably less than 5% (more like 1%, I'd guess), kaboom has happened, and so the probability of Russia dropping a strategic nuke is closer to 12.5%. And so, the final probability of KABOOM is closer to 0.9% than 0.25%.
While the author here has been credibly accused of abuse, and so I have no desire to raise his social status, I see this concept as valuable. In fact, it is a good model of at least one element of the vaguely-defined concept of privilege.
Take general social assertiveness. Men are generally Bob, while women are more often Carol. However, it appears that women look at all the B men are getting away with without suffering Y, and see men as Adam. On the other hand, men see the amount of B women can afford not to do without suffering X, and see women as Alice. Therefore, women talk about the male privilege of being able to do B, while men sometimes talk about the female privilege of being able to not do B (only sometimes, because an element of B is not complaining about it).
However, this does not change the fact that Bob is genuinely in a better position than Carol.
It is half of an iterated PD, and the other half is invisible to you.
It doesn't actually matter. We already know Omega's strategy choice, and it can't be changed.
The second paragraph is a bit handwavey. It's basically the bit that turns Newcomb into an iterated game. As there's this causal loop, it can be unlooped by converting into an iterated game, and using your action in the previous round as a proxy for your action in that round. So Omega plays based on your previous action, which is the same as your next one.
Thought the connection seemed obvious enough that I couldn't be the first to see it! Although there are some differences. Lewis sees the one-shot PD as a really weak Newcomb (weak as in the predictor is inaccurate), while I see the iterated PD as equivalent to a far stronger Newcomb.
Ok, that's satisfied my curiosity as to what happens if you push the button without codes, and so I am not going to push the button.
X>W>Z>Y is interesting. It's similar to a PD, and so it appears that many of the same systems that evolved to enforce cooperation in PDs misfire in those cases and end up with Z (based on some observation, not any good evidence). However, unlike in a PD, Z is a worse outcome than the purely selfish X.
If a PD has the option to transfer value to your playmate and create more value, a XWZY (aka Deadlock) has the option to transfer value to your playmate inefficiently, so, in the inefficient state Z, both people are sacrificing to benefit the other, and yet each would be better off if the norm of sacrifice were not present.
EDIT: All of this assumes 2W > X + Y.
That sort of honour is probably level 1.
I thought that as I was reading this, but came to different conclusions. I see a focus on honour and reputation as a level 3 concern, while a focus on PR is a level 4 one.
I disagree with some of these.
1 fits white-blue better than white-red.
I'm not entirely sure what 2 fits, but black-green isn't it. White-red, maybe? [EDIT: Much like 4, it's actually 3 colours. White-red-green.]
3 is more black-blue than black-white, although white is a strong third.
4 really works better with 3 colours (blue-green-red).
5 isn't red. It's pretty close to mono-blue, but if I had to give it a second, it'd be blue-green.
6 is weird. Black has the trust issues, but doesn't fit much else. I'd say white-blue-red.
7 is red-blue, not red-green.
8 is black-red, with green if you add a third.
9 is green-white.
My answer to it is that it's a case of status quo bias. People see the world we live in as world A, and so status quo bias makes the repugnant conclusion repugnant. But, looking at the world, I see no reason to assume we aren't in world Z. So the question becomes, would it be acceptable to painlessly kill a large percentage of the population to make the rest happier, and the intuitive answer is no. But that is the same as saying world Z is better than world A, which is the repugnant conclusion.