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Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community. 2021-03-07T19:38:11.453Z

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Comment by gianlucatruda on Precognition · 2021-06-17T16:56:48.981Z · LW · GW

I'll DM you :)

Comment by gianlucatruda on Experiments with a random clock · 2021-06-15T12:32:10.606Z · LW · GW

Okay, I absolutely love this post! In fact, if you were to break it down into three posts, I would probably have been a serious fan of all of them individually. 

Firstly, the expected utility formulation of lateness is excellent and explains a lot of my personal behaviour. I'm aggressively early for important events like client meetings and interviews, but consistently tardy when meeting for coffee or arriving for a lecture. Whilst your methodology focussed on unobservable shifts to the time axis, I suspect there are also interesting gains to be made in reshaping the utility curve — for instance, by always carrying reading material, like korin43 mentions in another comment.  

Secondly, your approach to self-blinding is fantastic. I do a lot of Quantified-Self research and self-blinding is one of the most challenging and essential components of interventional QS studies. I really like how your protocol builds from the theoretical formulation you created and acts as a convolution on the utility function. I had a little nerdgasm when reading that part!

Thirdly, the fact that you collected and visualised data to evaluate the methodology is outdone only by how pretty your plot is.

Finally, it would be remiss of me not to comment on your excellent use of humour. I chuckled multiple times whilst reading. Expertly balanced and timed to resonate with the tone of the technical content. 
 

Comment by gianlucatruda on Precognition · 2021-06-14T16:58:28.190Z · LW · GW

Was about to comment the same thing. Saving it to my Wisdom List.

Comment by gianlucatruda on We need a standard set of community advice for how to financially prepare for AGI · 2021-06-08T10:00:41.012Z · LW · GW

Most rationalists are heavily invested into AGI in non-monetary ways — career paths, free time, hopes for longevity/coordination breakthroughs. As other commenters have pointed out, if humanity achieves aligned AGI in the future, financial returns will feasibly be far less important. Given that, maybe the best investments are to bet against AGI as a hedge for humanity not achieving it. 

There are 3 futures: If we achieve aligned AGI, we win the game and nothing else matters*. If we achieve misaligned AGI, we die and nothing else matters. If we fail to achieve AGI at all, then we've wasted a lot of our time, careers, and hopes. In that case, we want investments to fall back on. 

In that 3rd future, what commodities and equities are most successful? Can we buy those now?

*subject to accepting the singularity-like premise.

Comment by gianlucatruda on We need a standard set of community advice for how to financially prepare for AGI · 2021-06-08T09:51:25.486Z · LW · GW

which might happen in 1-2 years and tank crypto-mining completely.

Good point. But that would be a much better time to buy in for long-term value. 

Comment by gianlucatruda on We need a standard set of community advice for how to financially prepare for AGI · 2021-06-08T09:50:17.332Z · LW · GW

One approach that feels a bit more direct is investing in semiconductor stocks.

I agree with this and the above points. 

One way to potentially overcome the issues with TSMC might be to supplement the investment by buying into commodities like silicon and coltan. This is still not guaranteed to capture most of the value, but might be a method of diversification. But there are many ethical considerations (particularly with coltan). 

Comment by gianlucatruda on Vim · 2021-04-08T15:53:47.756Z · LW · GW

Yes! Even many websites and web apps implement some Vim standards. Particularly \ for search. 

Comment by gianlucatruda on Vim · 2021-04-07T10:43:16.454Z · LW · GW

This is a superb overview! I've used Vim for about 2 years now, but I still learned a bunch of things from this post that I didn't pick up from other cheatsheets or articles. 

My 2-cents: Vim itself is powerful as an editor, but I always missed some IDE features. What I've come to realise is that the real power of Vim is not the editor, but the keybindings. I installed the Vim extension in VSCode some time ago and have loved the hybrid workflow. Since then, I've been gradually incorporating Vim keybindings into all the tools I use for text — like Overleaf for writing papers in LaTeX and Zettlr for writing notes in Markdown. I still use Vim itself for small scripts and quickly editing files. It's so powerful being able to go between applications and never have to think about what your fingers are doing to transform ideas into output. 

One thing I still haven't quite figured out is in-browser text entry. So far, I haven't liked the solutions I've found, but it's something I'm looking into for the future. Writing this comment without my usual keybindings is... slow. 

Comment by gianlucatruda on On Expressing Your Concerns · 2021-04-07T09:55:16.582Z · LW · GW

There will be a Sequences Discussion Club event to talk about this post. Join us on Clubhouse tonight for a ~1h discussion. https://www.joinclubhouse.com/event/PQRv1RoA

Comment by gianlucatruda on Clubhouse · 2021-03-21T15:19:15.348Z · LW · GW

If you listen from 31:54 (linked here) to 46:00, Lex articulates very nicely what's unique and interesting about Clubhouse and they discuss how it compares to Skinner-box social media. It's a nice summary of the underlying value and definitely echoes some of my experiences so far.

Comment by gianlucatruda on Clubhouse · 2021-03-18T09:27:00.464Z · LW · GW

Try joining communities/clubs on topics you’re interested in. Then any rooms started by their members should pop up in your lobby. Also, I’ve heard that following people you’re interested in helps improve the suggestions.

Comment by gianlucatruda on Clubhouse · 2021-03-16T10:31:30.939Z · LW · GW

I'd love to do that sometime (timezones permitting). I'm @gianlucatruda on Clubhouse. 

Comment by gianlucatruda on Clubhouse · 2021-03-16T07:21:44.213Z · LW · GW

Great summary! For those reading the comments, there is a growing Rationalist-oriented community on Clubhouse. Join here: https://www.joinclubhouse.com/club/rationality-live

Comment by gianlucatruda on Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community. · 2021-03-10T20:16:26.951Z · LW · GW

Update: I tried searching again now and it pops up when I search “rationality” now. Seems it just took a while to update.

Comment by gianlucatruda on Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community. · 2021-03-08T21:47:45.531Z · LW · GW

Seems that there isn't yet a robust way to share these new communities (that I've found). But I'm glad you're finally in. Looking forward to some future conversations! 

Comment by gianlucatruda on Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community. · 2021-03-08T11:09:16.533Z · LW · GW

I don't think it's you. These in-app communities are a brand new feature, so I suspect it's still a bit buggy. Thanks for letting me know. 

Try visit this event link from your phone and then tap on the club name. Does that work? 

I'll also try invite you directly from the app. 

Comment by gianlucatruda on Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community. · 2021-03-07T21:14:00.050Z · LW · GW

Agreed. They're working on Android at the moment. I should have made all that clear in the post. 

Comment by gianlucatruda on The Kelly Criterion · 2021-03-01T16:18:30.201Z · LW · GW

I just discovered this now, Zvi. It's such a great heuristic!


I whipped up an interactive calculator version in Desmos for my own future reference, but others might find it useful too: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/pf74qjhzuk

Comment by gianlucatruda on Nate Soares' Replacing Guilt Series compiled in epub Format · 2020-06-23T17:15:05.774Z · LW · GW

Apologies for the late reply. Thanks for your kind words and support!

My Replacing Guilt output has been very low lately, but I'll have some more time flexibility in the near future and will start making progress again.

Comment by gianlucatruda on Nate Soares' Replacing Guilt Series compiled in epub Format · 2020-03-04T17:37:47.908Z · LW · GW

Thanks for compiling the series like this. I really appreciated being able to read it on my Kindle!

To help make Nate's ideas even more accessible, I'm currently producing an audio version. It can be found at https://anchor.fm/guilt or by searching "Replacing Guilt Podcast" on all podcast platforms. I intend to make a single audiobook out of it at the end too*.

If you know of people who would benefit from Replacing Guilt, but primarily consume audio instead of reading, please do forward it their way.


*All with Nate's permission, of course

Comment by gianlucatruda on On knowing the Future · 2018-08-12T17:50:43.596Z · LW · GW

No, to be clear, what I interpreted of your post was that you are "prescribing" how much time should be spent. "Predicting" how much time you will spend on something is not particularly helpful in achieving any output results, especially if it's largely just repeating what you did before. Your response does help in that it clarifies what you have done. It's just not what I thought you had done. In my experience, a "prescription" -- a plan for what you must do to achieve some valuable outcome -- is of more use in self-experimentation than a prediction. If, on the other hand, you have a lifestyle that is chaotic and in flux, where estimating time required by novel tasks is a challenge, then yes, a prediction is indeed useful. Thanks for getting back and sorry that my response is a fortnight later.

Comment by gianlucatruda on On knowing the Future · 2018-07-29T07:00:23.789Z · LW · GW

Could you elaborate on how exactly you went from a collection of data to a prescription of how much time you should spend on each task?

Comment by gianlucatruda on Two prescriptions for fixing a procedural/declarative knowledge mismatch. · 2018-06-23T08:09:45.731Z · LW · GW

Great post and helpful synthesis of the difference in procedural- and declarative- directed approaches. The matrix multiplication example earns a 10/10 too. I trust the exams went well!