What are some examples from history where a scientific theory predicted a significant experimental observation in advance? 2021-07-17T05:39:56.721Z


Comment by Insub on Tracey Davis and the Prisoner of Azkaban - Part 6 · 2021-06-23T22:19:00.506Z · LW · GW

Couple more:

"he wasn't be treated"

"Club cast cast Lumos"

Comment by Insub on I’m no longer sure that I buy dutch book arguments and this makes me skeptical of the "utility function" abstraction · 2021-06-22T05:48:32.884Z · LW · GW

It seems to me that the hungry->full Dutch book can be resolved by just considering the utility function one level deeper: we don't value hungriness or fullness (or the transition from hungry to full) as terminal goals themselves. We value moving from hungry to full, but only because doing so makes us feel good (and gives nutrients, etc). In this case, the "feeling good" is the part of the equation that really shows up in the utility function, and a coherent strategy would be one for which this amount of "feeling good" can not be purchased for a lower cost.

Comment by Insub on Irrational Modesty · 2021-06-21T03:08:16.291Z · LW · GW

In the event  anyone reading this has objective, reliable external metrics of extremely-high ability yet despite this feels unworthy of exploring the possibility that they can contribute directly to research

Huh, that really resonates with me. Thanks for this advice.

Comment by Insub on The Darwin Game - Conclusion · 2020-12-04T19:21:38.089Z · LW · GW

For the record, here's what the 2nd place CooperateBot [Insub] did:

  • On the first turn, play 2.
  • On other turns:
    • If we added up to 5 on the last round, play the opponent's last move
    • Otherwise, 50% of the time play max(my last move, opponents last move), and 50% of the time play 5 minus that

My goal for the bot was to find a simple strategy that gets into streaks of 2.5's as quickly as possible with other cooperation-minded bots. Seems like it mostly worked.

Comment by Insub on The Darwin Game - Conclusion · 2020-12-04T16:13:21.624Z · LW · GW

Is something strange going on in the Round 21-40 plot vs the round 41-1208 plot? It looks like the line labeled MeasureBot in the Round 21-40 plot switches to be labeled CooperateBot [Insub] in the Round 41-1208 plot. I hope my simple little bot actually did get second place!