Data about the new coronavirus variant (B.1.1.7) from Denmark 2021-01-02T11:38:35.187Z


Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The Point of Trade · 2021-06-27T09:18:19.327Z · LW · GW

I agree that the original post keeps going after removing differences in values because they don't remove differences in marginal value, which is what matters.
I am providing an example where properly removing the differences in marginal value results in no trade.

You are using a nonstandard definition of goods. Would you equally object to a market with only blueberries, apples and bananas on the basis that there is only one good available (fruits)?

The example world can be modified easily to use any utility function of the form a·red points + b·yellow points + c·blue points.

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The Point of Trade · 2021-06-26T16:26:25.932Z · LW · GW

The comment was meant as a proof by example that you can have no trade in a world with comparative advantages, if everyone has the same marginal value of all products the result is no trade.
Diminishing marginal returns are indeed enough to make marginal values different between people.

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The Point of Trade · 2021-06-23T21:01:51.417Z · LW · GW

People could trade making each others numbers bigger, it's just that it will never be beneficial for both.
Letting people increase others numbers by decreasing their own number doesn't change the results

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The Point of Trade · 2021-06-22T21:50:07.776Z · LW · GW

Example world without trade.

Every person gets at birth assigned an array of 3 integers a blue number, a yellow number and a red number. Every person has 3 attributes: the speed they can increase a red number (by spending that amount of time counting out loud), the speed they can increase a blue number, and the speed they can increase a yellow number. They can increase their own numbers or anyone elses. (Note we are not assuming everyone has the same amount of red, blue and yellow points at birth or that they are all equally fast at producing them). Everyone knows that there are no ways to become better at increasing your numbers.
Everyone has the following utility function: red points + blue points + yellow points.
This world has no trade! But it does have comparative advantages!

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The Point of Trade · 2021-06-22T21:37:31.029Z · LW · GW

Two of the removed features are removed incompletely.
Differerences in preferences. What is important for trade is the marginal preference. So to remove this motivation to trade one mus assume the marginal value (both intrinsic and instrumental) to be equal for everyone for all goods, which i think can only happen in some very weird cases (eg all gods have no instrumental value and utility is a linear combination of the products).

The difference in peoples productive capacity (which doesn't by itself result in trade (it does when assuming diminishing marginal value to personal consumption of the same product)) is not captured completely by their human capital, it is their all their capital. So normal capital differences could cause trade in any situation where human capital could.

Trade can also be used to facilitate coordination, cooperation and information.

Trade can allow parallelization of work (a kind of cooperation), and can in general let you play with time (eg work to create a product with the intention of trading it for something later (when you have better information about what you want)) 

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on Against neutrality about creating happy lives · 2021-03-16T11:21:58.103Z · LW · GW

Does you intuition still hold in the [Least Convenient Possible World]( where costs of creating new beings is 0?

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The average North Korean mathematician · 2021-03-09T11:14:01.435Z · LW · GW

At least the big Brittish schools this doesn't clearly hold based on the experience of people i know. Granted the evidence i have is consistent with them only caring about silver or better.

Also my impression for the Russian schools was that not speaking Russian was a problem they were happy to work around (which certainly isn't true everywhere)

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The average North Korean mathematician · 2021-03-08T12:10:40.163Z · LW · GW

The Danish team leader (the closest source to these events i have talked to) seems to (personally) believe the cheating allegations in 2010 or at least that the evidence was insufficient. 
Also note their non participation in 2017 and 2018 for reasons not known to me and in 2020 likely because the event was online

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The average North Korean mathematician · 2021-03-08T12:05:32.108Z · LW · GW

The comparison to chess is maybe more accurate than you think.
See stuff like:
Beginnings: The first IMO was held in Romania in 1959. It was initially founded for eastern European member countries of the Warsaw Pact, under the USSR bloc of influence, but later other countries participated as well.[2] (source
Also classic geometry is (to my knowledge) taught more generally in many eastern European countries (and make up 1/6-1/3 of the imo).

Also the note about incentives being larger in North Korea also applies to much of eastern Europa to a lesser degree, where qualifying for imo is seemingly enough to get access to any university (source: Sankt Petersberg university gave an open offer at Baltic Way (a regional math competition), and i know someone who used something like that to get into Moscow university)

(Romania, Serbia, Poland, Russia, Ukraine Hungary are the eastern european countries with consistently good results)

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility · 2021-03-02T13:20:53.829Z · LW · GW

One possible way to get at the hack of ignoring unlikely possibilities in a reasonable way might be to do something similar to the "typical set" found in information theory. Especially as utility function maximization can be reformulated as relative entropy minimization. 
(Epistemic status: my brain saw a possible connection, i have not spent much time on this idea)

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on Data about the new coronavirus variant (B.1.1.7) from Denmark · 2021-01-09T14:55:22.973Z · LW · GW

Here is the updated graph

on this one days with 0 cases are not excluded

Worth noting that there doesnt seem to be any significant differences in the ages of people who have the new and old variant 


Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on Data about the new coronavirus variant (B.1.1.7) from Denmark · 2021-01-09T14:03:27.648Z · LW · GW

Update with new numbers.

In the period from 28-12 to 02-01 we get the following numbers

Positive tests: 14408
sequenced tests: 1261 (8.8%)
B.1.1.7 cases: 36 (2.9%)

Which is slightly slower than a doubleing time of a week (a 1.8 multiplier per week with naive extension (i believe the naive method is likely to underestimate))

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating? · 2021-01-03T22:10:49.801Z · LW · GW

Update can be found here

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 13 · 2021-01-01T16:52:45.858Z · LW · GW

In this alternate universe the old testament is true, so it is a reference to the seventh day of creation where god rested (after having created the world)

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating? · 2020-12-26T11:26:59.829Z · LW · GW

85 seems incongruent with this source

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating? · 2020-12-26T11:13:27.485Z · LW · GW

The countries that do the most sequencing (who also have a significant number of cases) is Denmark (10.9% of positives are sequenced) and the UK(5.61%).
The Danish data makes me slightly hopeful:
1. the virus has been found in Denmark.
2. But the numbers are surprisingly small, 9 confirmed cases by 20-12,  
3. The Danish government have not released statements regarding its effects on vaccines.
3-1. Denmark made such an announcement as soon as any evidence above baseline existed for cluster 5, so the lack of announcement is more significant than one might otherwise think.
4. Case numbers are not going up in Denmark

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The LessWrong 2018 Book is Available for Pre-order · 2020-12-02T15:08:00.075Z · LW · GW

Denmark seems to also not be an option.
(and switzerland is an option twice)

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on The Darwin Game · 2020-10-10T09:58:39.081Z · LW · GW

If i had to guess on the motives, the last time a similar game was played (non publically) the meta developed to be about self recognizing, this is likely a rule to avoid this.
Winning strategy was some key string to identify yourself, cooperate with yourselt, play 3 otherwise. (Granted number of iterations was low, so people might not have moved to be non cooperating strategies  enough (something like grim trigger))

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on 2020's Prediction Thread · 2020-01-01T22:35:42.388Z · LW · GW

You predict that it is more likely to have an ai which " that can perform nearly every economically valuable task more cheaply than a human, will have been created " than "will write a book without substantial aid, that ends up on the New York Times bestseller list. "

This seems weird as the first seems very likely to cause the second.

Comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) on What's going on with this failure of Bayes to converge? · 2019-12-21T00:09:34.498Z · LW · GW

They seem to forget to first condition on the fact that the threshold must be an integer. This narrows the possibility space to have size countable infinit rather than uncountable infinit. Meaning they need to do a completely different mahtematics, which gives the correct ressult