Quarantine Preparations

If everybody starts hoarding food now, we could end with global famine even without decline in food production.

In my childhood I lived in Soviet Union and once (circs 1988) there was a rumor that there will no more sugar (because it was used for illegal alcohol production after Gorbachev's prohibition laws) . Everybody who heard it, stockpile as much sugar as they can; a friend bought 20 kg. Obviously it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and it took around a year to normalize sugar market via large import.

It seems that zinc supplements (especially LifeExtension Enhanced Zinc Lozenges) can be useful to reduce flu severity.

Given that this Coronavirus seems to have more virus particles in the throat it seems like there's a chance that the zinc supplements might be more effective then they are against standard flu.

I'm not seriously worried about this (quarantine, as opposed to other disasters that disrupt supplies and travel), but it's worth doing the next level of modeling. Outside of China, or at an international border (or on a cruise ship), it's simply impossible to enforce it well, and kind of ludicrous to believe it'll work on a population over a few hundred thousand. The current "lockdown" in italy is a couple of villages and towns, a total of 50K effected people, and lightly enforced by a small number of policemen. It's really more advisory than mandatory.

A government MIGHT try something more rigorous for the fist couple of medium-sized cities with a major outbreak, but if it gets that bad, it won't be long until a dozen more are hit, and it's simply not going to happen that a majority of residents in any region are going to stay inside for very long, especially when the food starts running out.

Thinking tactically for how to make a week or two tolerable makes a ton of sense. Always, not just now. This is general insurance against many kinds of bad thing. Do that.

Thinking strategically about longer-term disasters, you should probably consider a more defensible spot over trying to fortify your current residence. Get out before a quarantine happens, and/or have enough cash or gold or drugs to convince a coyote to get you out. If it comes to that, though, all bets are off about what you'll find outside the quarantine area anyway.

Basically, when I imagine scenarios with large-scale non-localized disasters, it comes out bimodal: either it's unpleasant for a week or two then recovers, or the whole thing collapses and everyone dies.

I agree with the view that COVIS-19 is going to be worse than many want to admit -- though very likely not as bad as some are anticipating. Regardless, though, having a plan does make good sense.

I think there are two big meta-level type questions in terms of this post and the underlying audience.

1) Acting now, in advance, would seem to offer something of a first move advantage when thinking in terms of individual interests. That would seem to be a bit contrary to the general view of the EA sub-group here.

2) If the suggested advice is really one of those private vices not leading to public virtue outcomes, perhaps there is a better way of approaching preparations for a worse case scenario for COVID-19.

One aspect of this might to at least acknowledge that we're not all facing the same risks. Urban populations who rely on public transit, frequent crowded environment where close contact and breathing the air someone else just exhaled are at one end of the spectrum. Those living in rural areas, drive their own car, shop where their might be 5 people in the store at the same time and are off all the major routes and almost never see outsiders at the other.

I'm interested in the mask recommendation.

Not that I've done a ton of research but most of the articles I've come across have been neutral-to-negative about masks.

Here's one of the articles I just came across today:

https://www.consumerreports.org/coronavirus/do-you-need-a-mask-to-prevent-coronavirus/

edit: Though, I guess maybe the idea of getting some is to protect others if you have symptoms rather than protecting yourself from getting infected.