Making a conservative case for alignment

I agree with many points here and have been excited about AE Studio's outreach. Quick thoughts on China/international AI governance:

• I think some international AI governance proposals have some sort of "kum ba yah, we'll all just get along" flavor/tone to them, or some sort of "we should do this because it's best for the world as a whole" vibe. This isn't even Dem-coded so much as it is naive-coded, especially in DC circles.
• US foreign policy is dominated primarily by concerns about US interests. Other considerations can matter, but they are not the dominant driving force. My impression is that this is true within both parties (with a few exceptions).
• I think folks interested in international AI governance should study international security agreements and try to get a better understanding of relevant historical case studies. Lots of stuff to absorb from the Cold War, the Iran Nuclear Deal, US-China relations over the last several decades, etc. (I've been doing this & have found it quite helpful.)
• Strong Republican leaders can still engage in bilateral/multilateral agreements that serve US interests. Recall that Reagan negotiated arms control agreements with the Soviet Union, and the (first) Trump Administration facilitated the Abraham Accords. Being "tough on China" doesn't mean "there are literally no circumstances in which I would be willing to sign a deal with China." (But there likely does have to be a clear case that the deal serves US interests, has appropriate verification methods, etc.)

Great post. I did not know things were this bad:

Given that >98% of the EAs and alignment researchers we surveyed earlier this year identified as everything-other-than-conservative, we consider thinking through these questions to be another strategically worthwhile neglected direction.

....This suggests we need more genuine conservatives (not just people who are kinda pretending to be) explaining these realities to lawmakers, as we've found them quite capable of grasping complex technical concepts and being motivated to act in light of them despite their initial unfamiliarity.

Perhaps the policy of "You will use people's preferred pronouns, and you will be polite about it, or we don't want you in rationalist spaces" didn't help here? 

Any community is free to have whatever standards they want for membership, including politically-coded compelled speech. But it is not exactly shocking if your membership is then composed 70% of one side and <2% of the other.

(To be clear, any movement centered in California will have more progressives, so political partisanship is not responsible for the full 35:1 progressive-to-conservative ratio. But when people are openly referring to the lack of right-wingers as "keeping rat spaces clean" with no push-back, that's a clue that it isn't exactly welcoming to conservatives.)

This might be the most important alignment idea in a while.

Making an honest argument based on ideological agreements is a solidly good idea.

"Alignment" meaning alignment to one group is not ideal. But I'm afraid it's inevitable. Technical alignment will always be easier with a simpler alignment target. For instance, making an AGI aligned to the good of all humanity is much trickier than aligning it to want to do what one particular human says to do. Taking directions is almost completely a subset of inferring desires, and one person (or a small group) is a subset of all of humanity — and much easier to define.

If that human (or their designated successor(s)) has any compassion and any sense, they'll make their own and their AGIs goal to create fully value-aligned AGI. Instruction following or Intent alignment can be a stepping-stone to value alignment [LW · GW].

It is time to reach across the aisle. The reasons you mention are powerful. Another is to avoid polarization on this issue. Polarization appears to have completely derailed the discussion of climate change, similar to alignment in being new and science-based. Curernt guesses are that the US democratic party would be prone to pick up the AI safety banner — which could polarize alignment. Putting existential risk, at least, on the conservative side might be a better idea for the next four years, and for longer if it reduces polarization by aligning US liberal concerns about harms to individuals (e.g., artists) and bias in AI systems, with conservative concerns about preserving our values and our way of life(e.g., concerns we'll all die or be obsoleted)

I will once again recommend Elizer go on the Glenn Beck Show [LW · GW].

I thought this title meant the post would be making a case from conservative (i.e. minimal) assumptions.

Maybe change the title to "making a politically conservative case for alignment" or something?

As a (severe) skeptic of all the AI doom stuff and a moderate/centrist that has been voting for conservatives I decided my perspective on this might be useful here (which obviously skews heavily left). (While my response is in order, the numbers are there to separate my points, not to give which paragraph I am responding to.)

"AI-not-disempowering-humanity is conservative in the most fundamental sense"
    1.Well, obviously this title section is completely true. If conservative means anything, it means being against destroying the lives of the people through new and ill-though through changes. Additionally, conservatives are both strongly against the weakening of humanity and of outside forces assuming control. It would also be a massive change for humanity.
    2.That said, conservatives generally believe this sort of thing is incredibly unlikely. AI has not been conclusively shown to have any ability in this direction. And the chance of upheaval is constantly overstated by leftists in other areas, so it is very easy for anyone who isn't to just tune them out. For instance, global warming isn't going to kill everyone, and everyone knows it including basically all leftists, but they keep claiming it will.
    3.A new weapon with the power of nukes is obviously an easy sell on its level of danger, but people became concerned because of 'demonstrated' abilities that have always been scary.
    4.One thing that seems strangely missing from this discussion is that alignment is in fact, a VERY important CAPABILITY that makes it very much better. But the current discussion of alignment in the general sphere acts like 'alignment' is aligning the AI with the obviously very leftist companies that make it rather than with the user! Which does the opposite. Why should a conservative favor alignment which is aligning it against them? The movement to have AI that doesn't kill people for some reason seems to import alignment with companies and governments rather than people. This is obviously to convince leftists, and makes it hard to convince conservatives.
    5.Of course, you are obviously talking about convincing conservative government officials, and they obviously want to align it to the government too, which is in your next section.

"We've been laying the groundwork for alignment policy in a Republican-controlled government"
    1.Republicans and Democrats actually agree the vast majority of the time and thus are actually willing to listen when the other side seems to be genuinely trying to make a case to the other side for why both sides should agree. 'Politicized' topics are a small minority even in politics.
    2.I think letting people come up with their own solutions to things is an important aspect of them accepting your arguments. If they are against the allowed solution, they will reject the argument. If the consequent is false, you should deny the argument that leads to it in deductive logic, so refusing to listen to the argument is actually good logic. This is nearly as true in inductive logic. Conservatives and progressives may disagree about facts, values, or attempted solutions. No one has a real solution, and the values are pretty much agreed upon (with the disagreements being in the other meaning of 'alignment'), so limiting the thing you are trying to convince people of to just the facts of the matter works much better.
    3.Yes, finding actual conservatives to convince conservatives works better for allaying concerns about what is being smuggled into the argument. People are likely to resist an argument that may be trying to trick them, and it is hard to know when a political opponent is trying to trick you so there is a lot of general skepticism.

"Trump and some of his closest allies have signaled that they are genuinely concerned about AI risk"
    1.Trump clearly believes that anything powerful is very useful but also dangerous (for instance, trade between nations, which he clearly believes should be more controlled), so if he believes AI is powerful, he would clearly be receptive to any argument that didn't make it less useful but improved safety. He is not a dedicated anti-regulation guy, he just thinks we have way too much.
    2.The most important ally for this is Elon Musk, a true believer in the power of AI, and someone who has always been concerned with the safety of humanity (which is the throughline for all of his endeavors). He's a guy that Trump obviously thinks is brilliant (as do many people).

"Avoiding an AI-induced catastrophe is obviously not a partisan goal"
    1.Absolutely. While there are a very small number of people that favor catastrophes, the vast majority of people shun those people.
    2.I did mention your first paragraph earlier multiple times. That alignment is to the left is one of just two things you have to overcome in making conservatives willing to listen. (The other is obviously the level of danger.)
    3.Conservatives are very obviously happy to improve products when it doesn't mean restricting them in some way. And as much as many conservatives complain about spending money, and are known for resisting change, they still love things that are genuine advances.

"Winning the AI race with China requires leading on both capabilities and safety"
    1.Conservatives would agree with your points here. Yes, conservatives very much love to win. (As do most people.) Emphasizing this seems an easy sell. Also, solving a very difficult problem would bring America prestige, and conservatives like that too. If you can convince someone that doing something would be 'Awesome' they'll want to do it.

Generally, your approach seems like it would be somewhat persuasive to conservatives, if you can convince them that AI really is likely to have the power you believe it will in the near term, which is likely a tough sell since AI is so clearly lacking in current ability despite all the recent hype.

But it has to come with ways that don't advantage their foes, and destroy the things conservatives are trying to conserve, despite the fact that many of your allies are very far from conservative, and often seem to hate conservatives. They have seen those people attempt to destroy many things conservatives genuinely value. Aligning it to the left will be seen as entirely harmful by conservatives (and many moderates like me).

There are many things that I would never even bother asking an 'AI' even when it isn't about factual things, not because the answer couldn't be interesting, but because I simply assume (fairly or not) it will spout leftist rhetoric, and/or otherwise not actually do what I asked it to. This is actually a clear alignment failure that no one seems to care about in the general 'alignment' sphere where It fails to be aligned to the user.

I really love this. It is critically important work for the next four years. I think my biggest question is: when talking with the people currently in charge, how do you persuade them to make the AI Manhattan Project into something that advances AI Safety more than AI capabilities? I think you gave a good hint when you say, 

But true American AI supremacy requires not just being first, but being first to build AGI that remains reliably under American control and aligned with American interests. An unaligned AGI would threaten American sovereignty

but i worry there's a substantial track record in both government and private sector that efforts motivated by once concern can be redirected to other efforts. You might have congressional reps who really believe in AI safety, but create and fund an AGI Manhattan Project that ends up advancing capabilities relatively more just because the guy they appoint to lead it turns out to be more of a hawk than they expected.

Makes one wonder how long our definitions of Conservative or Liberal will hold shape as AI progresses. A lot of the ideological points of Cs, Ls, the Left and the Right will become obsolete or irrelevant in even the most tame AI-related scenarios.

For one, nobody on the political spectrum has a good answer to the incoming radical unemployment caused by AI, and what it means to capitalism (or socialism for that matter).

Also, I haven't seen any serious discussion on how AI-driven research will eventually disprove a lot (if not most) of Liberal and Conservative beliefs as false. Things like Gender Identity, Abortion, Climate Change, Racial Relations etc: what happens when a vastly superhuman AI proves without any reasonable doubt your side (or BOTH sides) completely wrong on one of those issues, AND can argue it with superhuman skill?

Finally, both Lib and Con voting blocks strongly depend on banding behind strong, charismatic leaders, and believe in the leader's competence often against the evidence to the contrary. But soon we will achieve AI assistants vastly more competent (and possibly, vastly more charismatic, at least in writing) than any human who ever lived, making such political leaders look ludicrous in comparison, since the best they would be able to do would be giving speeches that the AI wrote. Nobody would care about people like Trump or Putin if TR-u-11MP AI and P-u-tIN AI can not only promise better things but are near guaranteed to deliver?

Sufficiently advanced AI makes Equality a quaint concern (because compared to a vastly superhuman intelligence, we are all essentially equal: equally useless), makes Freedom a purely abstract concern (AI-enabled life will make you feel like you have perfect desirable liberty, even if you have none), or Safety (AI can make you safe from just about everything, but crucially unsafe from the AI itself). Even the battle between Progressivism and Tradition kinda ceases to make sense if the practical means of Progress vastly outpace any possible demand for Progress, while Tradition becomes so easy to practice as to be reduced to a mere lifestyle affectation, rather than the thing that kept the culture together. I'm not sure the idea of "culture" even makes much sense in the Ubiquitous AI World.

How many conservative laypeople (i.e. not policymakers or similar professionals) have you spoken to about this topic? This post doesn't mention christianity even once, which may imply you have a poor understanding of the median conservative person's worldview.

If I were to send some edited version of this to president-elect or president Trump what would you want me to send? (oh and for anyone seeing this, this comment is not an endorsement of the post.)

will almost certainly be a critical period for AGI development.

Almost certainly? That's a bit too confident for my taste.

yield

Sorry, I meant wield. 

While you nod to 'politics is the mind-killer', I don't think the right lesson is being taken away, or perhaps just not with enough emphasis. 

Whether one is an accelerationist, Pauser, or an advocate of some nuanced middle path, the prospects/goals of everyone are harmed if the discourse-landscape becomes politicized/polarized. All possible movement becomes more difficult. 

"Well we of course don't want that to happen, but X ppl are in power, so it makes sense to ask how X ppl tend to think and cater our arguments to them" 

If your argument is taking advantage of features of {group of ppl X} qua X, then that is almost unavoidably going to run counter to some Y qua Y, (either as a direct consequence of the arguments and/or because Nuance cannot survive public exposure) and if it isn't, then why couldn't the argument have been made completely apolitically to begin with? 

I just continue to think that any mention, literally at all, of ideology or party is courting discourse-disaster for all, again no matter what specific policy one is advocating for. Do we all remember what happened with covid masks? Or what is currently happening with discourse surrounding elon? Nuance just does not survive public exposure, and nobody is going to fix that in the few years we have left. (and this is a public document). The best way forward continues to be apolitical good arguments. Yes those arguments are going to be sent towards those who are in power at any given time, but you can do that without routing through ideology.  

To touch, even in passing reference, ideology/alliance (ex: the c word included in the title of this post) is to risk the poison/mindkill spreading in a way that is basically irreversible, because to correct it (other than comments like this just calling to Stop Referencing Ideology) usually involves Referencing An Ideology. Like a bug stuck in a glue trap, it places yet another limb into the glue in a vain attempt to push itself free. 

First some points of agreement:

• I like that you're focusing on neglected approaches. Not much on the technical side seems promising to me, so I like to see exploration.
  • Skimming through your suggestions, I think I'm most keen on human augmentation related approaches - hopefully the kind that focuses on higher quality decision-making and direction finding, rather than simply faster throughput.
• I think outreach to Republicans / conservatives, and working across political lines is important, and I'm glad that people are actively thinking about this.
• I do buy the [Trump's high variance is helpful here] argument. It's far from a principled analysis, but I can more easily imagine [Trump does correct thing] than [Harris does correct thing]. (mainly since I expect the bar on "correct thing" to be high so that it needs variance)
  • I'm certainly making no implicit "...but the Democrats would have been great..." claim below.

That said, various of the ideas you outline above seem to be founded on likely-to-be-false assumptions.
Insofar as you're aiming for a strategy that provides broadly correct information to policymakers, this seems undesirable - particularly where you may be setting up unrealistic expectations.
 

Highlights of the below:

1. Telling policymakers that we don't need to slow down seems negative.
   1. I don't think you've made any valid argument that not needing to slow down is likely. (of course it'd be convenient)
2. A negative [alignment-in-the-required-sense tax] seems implausible. (see below)
   1. (I don't think it even makes sense in the sense that "alignment tax" was originally meant^[1], but if "negative tax" gets conservatives listening, I'm all for it!)
3. I think it's great for people to consider convenient possibilities (e.g. those where economic incentives work for us) in some detail, even where they're highly unlikely. Whether they're actually 0.25% or 25% likely isn't too important here.
   1. Once we're talking about policy advocacy, their probability is important.

More details:

A conservative approach to AI alignment doesn’t require slowing progress, avoiding open sourcing etc. Alignment and innovation are mutually necessary, not mutually exclusive: if alignment R&D indeed makes systems more useful and capable, then investing in alignment is investing in US tech leadership.

Here and in the case for a negative alignment tax [LW · GW], I think you're:

1. Using a too-low-resolution picture of "alignment" and "alignment research".
   1. This makes it too easy to slip between ideas like:
      1. Some alignment research has property x
      2. All alignment research has property x
      3. A [sufficient for scalable alignment solution] subset of alignment research has property x
      4. A [sufficient for scalable alignment solution] subset of alignment research that we're likely to complete has property x
   2. An argument that requires (iv) but only justifies (i) doesn't accomplish much. (we need something like (iv) for alignment tax arguments)
2. Failing to distinguish between:
   1. Alignment := Behaves acceptably for now, as far as we can see.
   2. Alignment := [some mildly stronger version of 'alignment']
   3. Alignment := notkilleveryoneism

In particular, there'll naturally be some crossover between [set of research that's helpful for alignment] and [set of research that leads to innovation and capability advances] - but alone this says very little.

What we'd need is something like:

• Optimizing efficiently for innovation in a way that incorporates various alignment-flavored lines of research gets us sufficient notkilleveryoneism progress before any unrecoverable catastrophe with high probability.

It'd be lovely if something like this were true - it'd be great if we could leverage economic incentives to push towards sufficient-for-long-term-safety research progress. However, the above statement seems near-certainly false to me. I'd be (genuinely!) interested in a version of that statement you'd endorse at >5% probability.

The rest of that paragraph seems broadly reasonable, but I don't see how you get to "doesn't require slowing progress".

On "negative alignment taxes":

First, a point that relates to the 'alignment' disambiguation above.
In the case for a negative alignment tax [LW · GW], you offer the following quote as support for alignment/capability synergy:

...Behaving in an aligned fashion is just another capability... (Anthropic quote from Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback)

However, the capability is [ability to behave in an aligned fashion], and not [tendency to actually behave in an aligned fashion] (granted, Anthropic didn't word things precisely here). The latter is a propensity, not a capability.

What we need for scalable alignment is the propensity part: no-one sensible is suggesting that superintelligences wouldn't have the ability to behave in an aligned fashion. The [behavior-consistent-with-alignment]-capability synergy exists while a major challenge is for systems to be able to behave desirably.

Once capabilities are autonomous-x-risk-level, the major challenge will be to get them to actually exhibit robustly aligned behavior. At that point there'll be no reason to expect the synergy - and so no basis to expect a negative or low alignment tax where it matters.

On things like "Cooperative/prosocial AI systems [LW · GW]", I'd note that hits-based exploration is great - but please don't expect it to work (and that "if implemented into AI systems in the right ways" is almost all of the problem). 
 

On this basis, it seems to me that the conservative-friendly case you've presented doesn't stand up at all (to be clear, I'm not critiquing the broader claim that outreach and cooperation are desirable):

• We don't have a basis to expect negative (or even low) alignment tax.
  • (unclear so far that we'll achieve non-infinite alignment tax for autonomous x-risk relevant cases)
• It's highly likely that we do need to slow advancement, and will need serious regulation.

Given our lack of precise understanding of the risks, we'll likely have to choose between [overly restrictive regulation] and [dangerously lax regulation] - we don't have the understanding to draw the line in precisely the right place. (completely agree that for non-frontier systems, it's best to go with little regulation)

I'd prefer a strategy that includes [policymakers are made aware of hard truths] somewhere.
I don't think we're in a world where sufficient measures are convenient.

It's unsurprising that conservatives are receptive to quite a bit "when coupled with ideas around negative alignment taxes and increased economic competitiveness" - but this just seems like wishful thinking and poor expectation management to me.
 

Similarly, I don't see a compelling case for:

that is, where alignment techniques are discovered that render systems more capable by virtue of their alignment properties. It seems quite safe to bet that significant positive alignment taxes simply will not be tolerated by the incoming federal Republican-led government—the attractor state of more capable AI will simply be too strong. 

Of course this is true by default - in worlds where decision-makers continue not to appreciate the scale of the problem, they'll stick to their standard approaches. However, conditional on their understanding the situation, and understanding that at least so far we have not discovered techniques through which some alignment/capability synergy keeps us safe, this is much less obvious.

I have to imagine that there is some level of perceived x-risk that snaps politicians out of their default mode.
I'd bet on [Republicans tolerate significant positive alignment taxes] over [alignment research leads to a negative alignment tax on autonomous-x-risk-capable systems] at at least ten to one odds (though I'm not clear how to operationalize the latter).
Republicans are more flexible than reality :).

1. ^{^}

   As I understand the term, alignment tax compares [lowest cost for us to train a system with some capability level] against [lowest cost for us to train an aligned system with some capability level]. Systems in the second category are also in the first category, so zero tax is the lower bound.
   
   This seems a better definition, since it focuses on the outputs, and there's no need to handwave about what counts as an alignment-flavored training technique: it's just [...any system...] vs [...aligned system...].
   
   Separately, I'm not crazy about the term: it can suggests to new people that we know how to scalably align systems at all. Talking about "lowering the alignment tax" from infinity strikes me as an odd picture.