Posts

Point of Failure: Semiconductor-Grade Quartz 2024-09-30T15:57:40.495Z
On the subject of in-house large language models versus implementing frontier models 2024-09-23T15:00:32.811Z
Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course 2024-02-16T22:07:30.620Z
How can the world handle the HAMAS situation? 2023-10-13T09:15:40.654Z
‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unforeseen test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth 2023-08-06T20:58:51.838Z
The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor 2023-07-26T02:27:51.760Z
An Overview of Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4 2023-03-27T13:44:43.805Z
Ways to prepare to a vastly new world? 2023-02-26T04:56:12.505Z
Looking for ideas of public assets (stocks, funds, ETFs) that I can invest in to have a chance at profiting from the mass adoption and commercialization of AI technology 2022-12-07T22:35:48.107Z
The FTX Saga - Simplified 2022-11-16T02:42:55.739Z
Conversations on Alcohol Consumption 2022-11-01T05:09:34.374Z
Syncretism 2022-10-28T16:08:17.639Z
Risk Management from a Climbers Perspective 2022-07-16T21:14:01.671Z
Hedging the Possibility of Russia invading Ukraine 2021-12-23T01:13:49.399Z
RandomWalkNFT: A Game Theory Exercise 2021-11-12T19:05:47.916Z
Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022? 2021-07-10T14:01:30.750Z
An Introduction to Prediction Markets 2021-06-14T16:43:14.127Z
Maximizing Yield on US Dollar Pegged Coins 2021-06-08T01:12:20.456Z
A Primer on United States Treasuries 2021-03-10T03:08:13.804Z
What is the VIX? 2021-02-26T01:05:06.420Z
Bitcoin and ESG Investing 2021-02-15T21:01:27.155Z
The GameStop Situation: Simplified 2021-01-29T17:55:04.985Z
Will Donald Trump complete his first term? 2021-01-09T12:13:57.456Z
Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument 2020-12-02T03:33:19.776Z
You have recovered from SARS-CoV-2. Now what? 2020-10-18T17:52:52.074Z

Comments

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Point of Failure: Semiconductor-Grade Quartz · 2024-09-30T20:28:21.684Z · LW · GW

Hunterbrook just came out with a piece alleging the damage at Spruce Pine is catastrophic: 

https://hntrbrk.com/essential-node-in-global-semiconductor-supply-chain-hit-by-hurricane-helene-video-reveals-entrance-to-mine-has-flooded/

 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Point of Failure: Semiconductor-Grade Quartz · 2024-09-30T19:22:31.204Z · LW · GW

I am with you, I have been trying to find more sources to see if semiconductor-grade quartz if being produced in places like Norway and Brazil, where deposits of high purity quartz are found. But from the research I have done, it seems that roughly 90% of semiconductor-grade quartz produced today is produce at Spruce Pine. Please let me know if you find any sources that say the contrary (I hope I am wrong honestly).

With respects to road disruptions, I agree. If it's a matter of national security, stakeholders will do whatever is necessary to ensure the material is transported out. However road disruptions is one part of the equation. There are other scenarios to consider such as power issues and destruction of the refining plants themselves that we have to take into consideration. 

 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on AI #83: The Mask Comes Off · 2024-09-26T22:09:50.813Z · LW · GW

I am certainly saying YES to a lot of stuff on the chance that ASI arrives and our lives change completely (Or we all die). Lets say that I am living more in the present now than I was 2 years ago. I do wonder if those closest to the frontier work would realize first and just go do things that really matter to them. 

If Mira Murati goes the way of Sam Trabucco, it will be concerning tell. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on AI #83: The Mask Comes Off · 2024-09-26T16:50:14.057Z · LW · GW

Re: Mira Murati departure, 

I wonder if a sign of AGI / ASI arriving soon is executives of frontier AI companies retiring early to enjoy the fruits of their labor before the world fundamentally changes for all of us. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on How can the world handle the HAMAS situation? · 2023-10-13T10:07:47.921Z · LW · GW

That would be ideal. How does the world urge them?

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor · 2023-07-27T10:30:58.336Z · LW · GW

https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/breaking-superconductor-news

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor · 2023-07-27T01:44:46.151Z · LW · GW

https://archive.is/2023.07.26-181113/https://www.newscientist.com/article/2384782-room-temperature-superconductor-breakthrough-met-with-scepticism/

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor · 2023-07-26T02:54:23.053Z · LW · GW

I'm seeing OTC markets at 50% confirmation by year end. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on AI: Practical Advice for the Worried · 2023-03-01T16:32:29.588Z · LW · GW

By the way, in 2050 you are more likely to reduce your consumption anyways because of age. This is a very common thing among humans: those who very successfully save for later end up saving so much that they end up dying with a pile of assets.

This new paradigm (AGI arriving in our lifetimes) is beginning to change the way I optimize life design.

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on AI: Practical Advice for the Worried · 2023-03-01T16:22:52.835Z · LW · GW

"If there is a new world order - AI or something else changes everything - and we are not all dead, how do you prepare for that? Good question. What does such a world look like? Some such worlds you don’t have to prepare and it is fine. Others, it is very important that you start with capital. Keeping yourself healthy, cultivating good habits and remaining flexible and grounded are probably some good places to start."

This is the question I am working on answering at the moment. It seems to me that it is universally agreed that AGI will happen in my lifetime (I am 34). My reasoning tells me that either AGI destroys us, or it fundamentally changes society, improving the average human standards of living substantially. This could very well mean that concepts such as law, government, capital markets, family systems,etc are significantly different than they are today.

Thinking of preparing for this new world is hard. Here's a few things that I've began doing:

  1. I am thinking less of life past 60, and shifting that energy more to the present moment.

  2. Saving for retirement is slowly going down in the list of priorities. I have a very healthy asset base and I am not going to blow through it all, But I am also not going to maximize savings either. I will put some money away, but less than I would a few years ago. That % I am not saving for retirement will be going to the present moment.

  3. Definitely not delaying bucket list items. If I can do it, I will do it.

  4. The probability of having biological children has gone down. I have discussed this with my partner. We will not be ready for children for the next three years and she's older than me, so the chances of biological children were already low. Furthermore adopting is still on the table and the probability of that is even higher now.

More importantly, these are all moving goal posts as developments happen.

Comment by jorge-velez on [deleted post] 2022-12-14T14:43:41.641Z

I feel the same way. You're not alone.

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Looking for ideas of public assets (stocks, funds, ETFs) that I can invest in to have a chance at profiting from the mass adoption and commercialization of AI technology · 2022-12-07T23:11:28.606Z · LW · GW

You're right it is not obvious. I just want ideas of things that are not so obvious that I can look into and if I am convinced that there is a small probability one of those ideas could be the one with the breakthrough, I will buy some of it. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Tales from Prediction Markets · 2022-12-05T01:18:42.546Z · LW · GW

This post gives us a glimpse at the exploitable inefficiencies of prediction markets. Whether prediction markets become mainstream or not is yet to be seen, but even today there are ways for sharp people to make money arbitraging and reading the fine print of the market rules carefully.

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on The FTX Saga - Simplified · 2022-11-16T14:32:47.639Z · LW · GW

Perhaps you are right: Creating a financial system for e-tulips was dumb in the first place. 

But that discussion goes beyond the scope of this post. The fact of the matter is the financial system for crypto was created, and a major player crashed, and people not well versed in finance and crypto are somewhat interested in how it happened. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on What’s the Deal with Elon Musk and Twitter? · 2022-11-08T13:48:18.457Z · LW · GW
Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on What’s the Deal with Elon Musk and Twitter? · 2022-11-08T13:41:07.048Z · LW · GW

Isn't the most accurate source of information about the world Wikipedia?

And it works fairly well?

Anyways, great post. Watching the pitchforks come out against this whole ordeal is kind of comical, and I am excited to see how this Culture Battle over Musk-owned private Twitter plays out. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Conversations on Alcohol Consumption · 2022-11-03T04:34:05.918Z · LW · GW

Excellent comment.

What I fear is being left out of certain social outings because I don't drink and you out it succinctly.

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Conversations on Alcohol Consumption · 2022-11-01T17:57:18.652Z · LW · GW

We are the minority but I think our minority is not so small.

I also agree with you that the AA framing turns me off. I wonder when western society will stop seeing people who don't drink as someone who used to have a problem?

Comment by jorge-velez on [deleted post] 2022-07-18T11:56:40.824Z

https://www.livescience.com/16070-geoengineering-climate-cooling-balloon.html

Not sure why this wasn't looked any further. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Hedging the Possibility of Russia invading Ukraine · 2022-01-23T01:59:30.918Z · LW · GW

I found the perfect hedge: 

I bet $5,000 to win $33,500 that the following Metaculus question resolves YES https://metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/… 

Bet is voided if resolution is ambiguous. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on San Francisco shares COVID data only when it's too late · 2021-12-26T21:56:06.122Z · LW · GW

Yeah this sucks, and I have no idea how to fix it. 

But if you want top notch information of what's happening at the front lines in SF, follow this twitter account:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1475188579684913152

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Omicron Post #9 · 2021-12-24T01:25:36.291Z · LW · GW

Zvi, are you betting your beliefs on Polymarket?

Have you seen the flip of the record cases market in the last three days?

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Hedging the Possibility of Russia invading Ukraine · 2021-12-23T01:18:27.876Z · LW · GW

A few ways to hedge that were floating in my head:

Long natural gas futures

Long Brent oil futures

Buy VIX calls

Buy DXY calls

Buy VGK puts

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-06T20:03:03.418Z · LW · GW

New Omicron market on Polymarket:

https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10pct-of-us-covid-19-cases-be-from-the-omicron-variant-on-january-1-2022

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-06T20:02:27.442Z · LW · GW

If you use the platform, just link your polymarket address and people can peer to peer you tips at no cost.

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-06T18:40:06.077Z · LW · GW

Hey Zvi, do you accept tips through Polymarket?

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Omicron Variant Post #2 · 2021-12-01T01:57:05.980Z · LW · GW

Zvi you got one of your markets:

https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fda-give-emergency-use-authorization-or-otherwise-approve-paxlovid-before-2022

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over · 2021-11-26T19:36:55.569Z · LW · GW

Re: effectiveness of Paxlovid vs Omicron: 

https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1464099757408751616?t=_ewDKnnijBgpeAzydqew4g&s=19&fbclid=IwAR2Jmkxy_iLjXkQhUoGrtBqMimpqBTWy5NLPRWheemNWcJAcT6j93JjydWA

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on RandomWalkNFT: A Game Theory Exercise · 2021-11-12T20:38:58.212Z · LW · GW

It stays in the contract until a new mint (called it mint B) happens. Then the 30 day clock begins again. If no new mints happen in those 30 days, then mint B takes 50% of that 50% remaining. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Worth checking your stock trading skills · 2021-11-10T11:59:46.166Z · LW · GW

I assumed that, or derivatives of those commodities. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Worth checking your stock trading skills · 2021-11-09T12:08:46.517Z · LW · GW

Thank you. 

I am inferring that your investing portfolio is 100% in equities and equity derivatives, and it seems that quite a bit of it is in high beta stuff. 

So you combine high beta with derivatives (leverage), and you get a great combination of risk that in the 22 months that you've invested paid off quite handsomely. 

Congratulations, your ability / willingness to bear risk combined with timing has worked. I hope we get to see future updates on your strategy. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Worth checking your stock trading skills · 2021-11-09T01:26:52.906Z · LW · GW

Can we get a snapshot of your portfolio? 

I am interested in seeing what you hold / held to assess your risk adjusted return. 

You started investing at a time where virtually all real assets beat their mean averages substantially. It was quite difficult to lose money investing in capital markets if you bought in January 2020 and held until today. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on The Opt-Out Clause · 2021-11-05T22:36:50.320Z · LW · GW

Did you just call me an NPC?

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-11-02T16:47:14.919Z · LW · GW

Polymarket is prediction a 65% chance of a cases trend reversal starting on November 10: 

https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-average-of-covid-cases-on-november-17th-be-higher-than-the-7-day-average-of-covid-cases-on-november-10th

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Delta variant: we should probably be re-masking · 2021-07-25T23:19:17.248Z · LW · GW

Has anyone found a good explanation as to why cases decline so rapidly in places where the Delta variant took over?

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1419301928790417411 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Covid 7/22: Error Correction · 2021-07-25T17:52:16.908Z · LW · GW

Has anyone found a good explanation as to why cases decline so rapidly in places where the Delta variant took over?

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1419301928790417411 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022? · 2021-07-15T20:11:38.647Z · LW · GW

You can actually bet on it: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-more-than-100000-new-daily-covid-19-cases-before-january-1

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Covid 7/15: Rates of Change · 2021-07-15T19:28:36.210Z · LW · GW

Any reason why not use your reasoning and expertise to put skin in the game? Polymarket has a couple of markets such as this one:

https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-more-than-100000-new-daily-covid-19-cases-before-january-1

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Covid 6/17: One Last Scare · 2021-06-17T22:15:10.667Z · LW · GW

Zvi, what do you think of this market, given the rise in the delta variant?

https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-1000-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-september-1

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on An Introduction to Prediction Markets · 2021-06-14T21:55:04.850Z · LW · GW

Whoa, I always read it as Metacalculus. Editing on both thanks for the heads up.

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on An Introduction to Prediction Markets · 2021-06-14T21:54:12.423Z · LW · GW

Previous suggestion on LessWrong suggests that savy uses of PolyMarket don't do that. They would create a Yes/No share pair and then sell the No for a few of 2% of $0.09.

This is true. Polymarket has a couple of tricks to save on fees. 


I don't think that's the case. Having access to an accurate probability about whether the Olympics will tell local hotels about how important it is to have a lot of beds available. It will tell AirBnB whether it makes sense to run ad campaings to get people to rent out their homes for hosting tourists that come for the Olympics. 

I agree with you. Didn't really think of this to be honest!

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Maximizing Yield on US Dollar Pegged Coins · 2021-06-09T15:15:21.661Z · LW · GW

The problem with doing it on the Ethereum network is gas fees. Even with super low gas fees (~$3), this strategy would cost over$100 to implement. 

I agree that doing this on Polygon / Matic is not ideal, as it is a sidechain / quasi L2 solution that sacrifices decentralization for speed and cost, but for illustration purposes, it works. 

It takes ~40 mins to bridge Ethereum from the Matic network to the Ethereum mainnet, 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on A whirlwind tour of Ethereum finance · 2021-05-24T18:27:14.040Z · LW · GW

This write up is a good complement to this post: 

https://wifpr.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/DeFi-Beyond-the-Hype.pdf

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Covid 5/13: Moving On · 2021-05-13T16:07:29.306Z · LW · GW

I am excited to go to the US in July to get my shot. 

Where I live, my age group will be eligible sometime in September. Might as well make a vacation out getting vaccinated. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection · 2021-04-09T20:23:12.347Z · LW · GW

What do you say about the behavior of those of us who had COVID 6 months ago or after?

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-20T00:58:32.508Z · LW · GW

Not necessarily. You can have people believe that EMH works in US equities or US Treasuries but not say, US corps. 

But most people in finance that I encountered throughout my career believed that EMH did not worked in any market. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-19T02:33:34.012Z · LW · GW

I studied and worked in finance and I don't think I ever met someone who truly believed that the EMH was the absolute truth. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on A Primer on United States Treasuries · 2021-03-10T16:40:48.019Z · LW · GW

Thank you for your response!

 

I have made some changes to the original post regarding your nitpicks. I agree with them. 

I also appreciate your in depth breakdown of all of my sections, I think the community here will appreciate your detail follow up / counters to my post. 

I am trying to think of a way to edit my post so that it is more clear that I use USTs and risk free rate interchangeably. 

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on A whirlwind tour of Ethereum finance · 2021-03-02T13:19:55.597Z · LW · GW

Solid primer. It is hard to really simplify this subject but I think you did a decent job.

Comment by Annapurna (jorge-velez) on What is the VIX? · 2021-02-26T12:05:30.070Z · LW · GW

I remember how much it irritated my advanced investment finance professors that variance and volatility were used interchangeably. 

But even in the whitepaper the CBOE uses the term volatility. Considering the simplistic nature of the post, I will add a footnote to make the definition more clear. 

Thank you.