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That would be ideal. How does the world urge them?
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/breaking-superconductor-news
https://archive.is/2023.07.26-181113/https://www.newscientist.com/article/2384782-room-temperature-superconductor-breakthrough-met-with-scepticism/
I'm seeing OTC markets at 50% confirmation by year end.
By the way, in 2050 you are more likely to reduce your consumption anyways because of age. This is a very common thing among humans: those who very successfully save for later end up saving so much that they end up dying with a pile of assets.
This new paradigm (AGI arriving in our lifetimes) is beginning to change the way I optimize life design.
"If there is a new world order - AI or something else changes everything - and we are not all dead, how do you prepare for that? Good question. What does such a world look like? Some such worlds you don’t have to prepare and it is fine. Others, it is very important that you start with capital. Keeping yourself healthy, cultivating good habits and remaining flexible and grounded are probably some good places to start."
This is the question I am working on answering at the moment. It seems to me that it is universally agreed that AGI will happen in my lifetime (I am 34). My reasoning tells me that either AGI destroys us, or it fundamentally changes society, improving the average human standards of living substantially. This could very well mean that concepts such as law, government, capital markets, family systems,etc are significantly different than they are today.
Thinking of preparing for this new world is hard. Here's a few things that I've began doing:
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I am thinking less of life past 60, and shifting that energy more to the present moment.
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Saving for retirement is slowly going down in the list of priorities. I have a very healthy asset base and I am not going to blow through it all, But I am also not going to maximize savings either. I will put some money away, but less than I would a few years ago. That % I am not saving for retirement will be going to the present moment.
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Definitely not delaying bucket list items. If I can do it, I will do it.
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The probability of having biological children has gone down. I have discussed this with my partner. We will not be ready for children for the next three years and she's older than me, so the chances of biological children were already low. Furthermore adopting is still on the table and the probability of that is even higher now.
More importantly, these are all moving goal posts as developments happen.
I feel the same way. You're not alone.
You're right it is not obvious. I just want ideas of things that are not so obvious that I can look into and if I am convinced that there is a small probability one of those ideas could be the one with the breakthrough, I will buy some of it.
This post gives us a glimpse at the exploitable inefficiencies of prediction markets. Whether prediction markets become mainstream or not is yet to be seen, but even today there are ways for sharp people to make money arbitraging and reading the fine print of the market rules carefully.
Perhaps you are right: Creating a financial system for e-tulips was dumb in the first place.
But that discussion goes beyond the scope of this post. The fact of the matter is the financial system for crypto was created, and a major player crashed, and people not well versed in finance and crypto are somewhat interested in how it happened.
Isn't the most accurate source of information about the world Wikipedia?
And it works fairly well?
Anyways, great post. Watching the pitchforks come out against this whole ordeal is kind of comical, and I am excited to see how this Culture Battle over Musk-owned private Twitter plays out.
Excellent comment.
What I fear is being left out of certain social outings because I don't drink and you out it succinctly.
We are the minority but I think our minority is not so small.
I also agree with you that the AA framing turns me off. I wonder when western society will stop seeing people who don't drink as someone who used to have a problem?
https://www.livescience.com/16070-geoengineering-climate-cooling-balloon.html
Not sure why this wasn't looked any further.
I found the perfect hedge:
I bet $5,000 to win $33,500 that the following Metaculus question resolves YES https://metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/…
Bet is voided if resolution is ambiguous.
Yeah this sucks, and I have no idea how to fix it.
But if you want top notch information of what's happening at the front lines in SF, follow this twitter account:
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1475188579684913152
Zvi, are you betting your beliefs on Polymarket?
Have you seen the flip of the record cases market in the last three days?
A few ways to hedge that were floating in my head:
Long natural gas futures
Long Brent oil futures
Buy VIX calls
Buy DXY calls
Buy VGK puts
New Omicron market on Polymarket:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10pct-of-us-covid-19-cases-be-from-the-omicron-variant-on-january-1-2022
If you use the platform, just link your polymarket address and people can peer to peer you tips at no cost.
Hey Zvi, do you accept tips through Polymarket?
Zvi you got one of your markets:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fda-give-emergency-use-authorization-or-otherwise-approve-paxlovid-before-2022
Re: effectiveness of Paxlovid vs Omicron:
https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1464099757408751616?t=_ewDKnnijBgpeAzydqew4g&s=19&fbclid=IwAR2Jmkxy_iLjXkQhUoGrtBqMimpqBTWy5NLPRWheemNWcJAcT6j93JjydWA
It stays in the contract until a new mint (called it mint B) happens. Then the 30 day clock begins again. If no new mints happen in those 30 days, then mint B takes 50% of that 50% remaining.
I assumed that, or derivatives of those commodities.
Thank you.
I am inferring that your investing portfolio is 100% in equities and equity derivatives, and it seems that quite a bit of it is in high beta stuff.
So you combine high beta with derivatives (leverage), and you get a great combination of risk that in the 22 months that you've invested paid off quite handsomely.
Congratulations, your ability / willingness to bear risk combined with timing has worked. I hope we get to see future updates on your strategy.
Can we get a snapshot of your portfolio?
I am interested in seeing what you hold / held to assess your risk adjusted return.
You started investing at a time where virtually all real assets beat their mean averages substantially. It was quite difficult to lose money investing in capital markets if you bought in January 2020 and held until today.
Did you just call me an NPC?
Polymarket is prediction a 65% chance of a cases trend reversal starting on November 10:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-average-of-covid-cases-on-november-17th-be-higher-than-the-7-day-average-of-covid-cases-on-november-10th
Has anyone found a good explanation as to why cases decline so rapidly in places where the Delta variant took over?
Has anyone found a good explanation as to why cases decline so rapidly in places where the Delta variant took over?
You can actually bet on it: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-more-than-100000-new-daily-covid-19-cases-before-january-1
Any reason why not use your reasoning and expertise to put skin in the game? Polymarket has a couple of markets such as this one:
Zvi, what do you think of this market, given the rise in the delta variant?
https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-1000-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-september-1
Whoa, I always read it as Metacalculus. Editing on both thanks for the heads up.
Previous suggestion on LessWrong suggests that savy uses of PolyMarket don't do that. They would create a Yes/No share pair and then sell the No for a few of 2% of $0.09.
This is true. Polymarket has a couple of tricks to save on fees.
I don't think that's the case. Having access to an accurate probability about whether the Olympics will tell local hotels about how important it is to have a lot of beds available. It will tell AirBnB whether it makes sense to run ad campaings to get people to rent out their homes for hosting tourists that come for the Olympics.
I agree with you. Didn't really think of this to be honest!
The problem with doing it on the Ethereum network is gas fees. Even with super low gas fees (~$3), this strategy would cost over$100 to implement.
I agree that doing this on Polygon / Matic is not ideal, as it is a sidechain / quasi L2 solution that sacrifices decentralization for speed and cost, but for illustration purposes, it works.
It takes ~40 mins to bridge Ethereum from the Matic network to the Ethereum mainnet,
This write up is a good complement to this post:
https://wifpr.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/DeFi-Beyond-the-Hype.pdf
I am excited to go to the US in July to get my shot.
Where I live, my age group will be eligible sometime in September. Might as well make a vacation out getting vaccinated.
What do you say about the behavior of those of us who had COVID 6 months ago or after?
Not necessarily. You can have people believe that EMH works in US equities or US Treasuries but not say, US corps.
But most people in finance that I encountered throughout my career believed that EMH did not worked in any market.
I studied and worked in finance and I don't think I ever met someone who truly believed that the EMH was the absolute truth.
Thank you for your response!
I have made some changes to the original post regarding your nitpicks. I agree with them.
I also appreciate your in depth breakdown of all of my sections, I think the community here will appreciate your detail follow up / counters to my post.
I am trying to think of a way to edit my post so that it is more clear that I use USTs and risk free rate interchangeably.
Solid primer. It is hard to really simplify this subject but I think you did a decent job.
I remember how much it irritated my advanced investment finance professors that variance and volatility were used interchangeably.
But even in the whitepaper the CBOE uses the term volatility. Considering the simplistic nature of the post, I will add a footnote to make the definition more clear.
Thank you.
Regarding prediction markets, have you seen this piece by Vitalik?
https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/02/18/election.html
I came in here to say leverage. There are options outside of margin lending that are interesting to explore, such as:
Investment Loan (Although the rate is similar to that of a margin loan)
Home Equity Line of Credit (Cheaper than the above)
Borrowing to re-investing and pledging your assets as collateral has been used for decades by wealthy investors to increase their return.
I use these products:
https://coinshares.com/etps/xbt-provider/bitcoin-tracker-euro
Yeah I didn't write about the gamma squeeze because I wanted to keep the length of the post short. But you bring up an excellent point.