Posts

Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument 2020-12-02T03:33:19.776Z
You have recovered from SARS-CoV-2. Now what? 2020-10-18T17:52:52.074Z

Comments

Comment by annapurna on Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument · 2020-12-02T16:20:10.556Z · LW · GW

Thank you for sharing. It's great to see these services already commit to Eth2 staking. 

I wouldn't call this a secondary market though. This is more Coinbase becoming an intermediary between the customer and the Eth2 staking process. 

A secondary market would be being able to buy and sell validator nodes. I do not think this would happen for two reasons: 

  1. Security. Every validator has a set of keys. A secondary market would imply the sharing of those keys. 
  2. Pricing. A secondary market would imply that the market value of validators (32 ETH) would fluctuate. Why would you sell a validator for lower than 32 ETH (and inversely buy a validator for more than 32 ETH) if the consensus protocol will always allow you to set up a node (and in phase 1.5 and beyond, exit a node) for 32 ETH?
Comment by annapurna on Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About · 2020-10-29T17:52:24.032Z · LW · GW

One of my biggest gripes with this whole situation is that I believe that if authorities treated us like adults, the ambiguity (COVID doesn't exist vs Very Serious People culture war) would be significantly mitigated. 

What do I mean? I will use Ontario as a example. 

On September 30th they came up with a modelling update. 

https://files.ontario.ca/moh-fall-prep-modelling-deck-en-2020-09-30.pdf

Skipping to slide 9, I can infer very easily the following:

If we get to 150 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the ICU, it starts becoming problematic for the health system in the province. If we get to 350, it starts breaking down the health system currently in place. 

OK. Seems simple enough, where are we now?

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

As of today 77 people in the province are hospitalized in the ICU. I can also see that the number of COVID-19 ICU patients in August were between 11-30, in September from 12-35, and in October from 36-82. 

Why is it that I had to do some decent Googling to find this information and come up with this conclusion? Why aren't government officials and the media telling us this information daily, so we as a population are aware that we are halfway in ICU hospitalizations for this to start becoming a problem, and thus we can personally adjust our behavior accordingly?

Comment by annapurna on Bet On Biden · 2020-10-25T12:18:42.357Z · LW · GW

Yeah the +EV of this bet is marginal at best. 

Comment by annapurna on Rationalist Town Hall: Pandemic Edition · 2020-10-22T18:22:23.050Z · LW · GW

I would like to ask the panel:

How would you design a study in order to confirm whether or not there are long-term consequences after recovering from COVID-19?

Nothing I have seen so far seems convincing. 

I found this paper on a long term followup of SARS recoveries: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/415378

Naturally, not enough time has passed to do a similar follow up. 

Comment by annapurna on What are some beautiful, rationalist artworks? · 2020-10-19T03:17:11.063Z · LW · GW

I chose this photograph because it displays one of the most elegant watch movements ever made. Within this movement there is a perpetual calendar complication. 

A perpetual calendar complication is a calendar feature within a watch that accounts for both short months and leap years. If you own a watch with a perpetual calendar complication, it would only have to be adjusted once every 100 years. 

Comment by annapurna on What are some beautiful, rationalist artworks? · 2020-10-19T03:10:09.023Z · LW · GW
The movement of a Patek Philippe Sky Moon Tourbillon Ref. 5002
Comment by annapurna on PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong · 2020-10-19T02:59:39.704Z · LW · GW

I just did a quick model of the 2016 elections, Clinton's FiveThiryEight prediction model probability of winning versus Clinton's percentage chance of winning based on betting odds for a range of dates. Here are the results:

August 18, 2016

Betting Market odds of winning: 81.82%

538 Prediction model odds of winning: 86.40%

September 26, 2016*

Betting Market odds of winning: 68.25%

538 Prediction model odds of winning: 54.80%

*This was debate night that year

October 25, 2016

Betting Market odds of winning: 84.62%

538 Prediction model odds of winning: 85.00%

November 1, 2016

Betting Market odds of winning: 73.33%

538 Prediction model odds of winning: 71.20%

Comment by annapurna on PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong · 2020-10-19T01:28:26.481Z · LW · GW

I believe Zvi is arguing that since the betting market hasn't moved much, despite the perdiction odds of Trump winning deteriorating, there is no reason to believe the betting market will make any moves the closer we get to election. The closer we get to election night, assuming the discrepancy stays constant, the bigger the value on the Biden winning / Trump losing bet. 

Comment by annapurna on Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over · 2020-10-18T19:57:04.509Z · LW · GW

I think it's worth noting that the woman that died from a confirmed reinfection was 89 years old and suffering from a rare from of Leukemia.

For future reference, there is a website tracking COVID-19 reinfections. We are up to 24 confirmed reinfections. 

By the way, your series of posts on the subject inspired me to write my own, focused more on those risks that those of us who recovered from COVID-19 face. 

Thank you for the inspiration. 

Comment by annapurna on Covid 9/10: Vitamin D · 2020-10-18T19:43:48.259Z · LW · GW

Great post, and yes, I would be quite angry if the solution to the major hurdle my generation has faced is so supplement D3 daily. 

Anecdotally, I've been supplementing D3 (between 4,000 to 10,000 IU per day, depending on the time of the year) since 2007, my first winter in the northern hemisphere. Having spent my entire life near the equator, moving to place where there was under 10 hours of sunlight per day for months was very miserable. D3 solved that misery. I've also recovered from COVID-19 in 12 days. I know I am just one person, but perhaps D3 helped in my recovery?

Comment by annapurna on Have the lockdowns been worth it? · 2020-10-16T02:52:26.103Z · LW · GW

I read this today and I found it a great resource. Not necessarily and answer to your question, but relevant. 

We all know the success of New Zealand's lock down. This case study explains in detail the steps New Zealand took at a national level to achieve its success. 

Comment by annapurna on Have the lockdowns been worth it? · 2020-10-16T02:48:21.985Z · LW · GW

Lock downs have led to significant decreases in seasonal influenza in the Southern Hemisphere.

Data from Australia

Data from New Zealand

Comment by annapurna on Covid 10/1: The Long Haul · 2020-10-14T03:23:31.790Z · LW · GW

As someone who is recovering from COVID-19, my interest on the subject has naturally moved towards long term consequences of the virus and reinfection risk. 

I agree with you that there isn't enough data out there to even get me interested that there are indeed long term consequences of the virus. 

With regards to reinfections, at the moment I believe that the few reinfections reported are anomalies. The Very Serious People are focusing on this reinfection case study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext

I also found a website that tracks reinfections: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/

If you believe the website, there have been 23 reinfections confirmed out of 30+ million confirmed recoveries. I think the odds are pointing towards there being some sort of immunity. 

Comment by annapurna on Covid 10/8: October Surprise · 2020-10-12T15:06:00.569Z · LW · GW

Thank you for the weekly impartial analysis on this subject. 

Comment by annapurna on What are your greatest one-shot life improvements? · 2020-07-19T22:55:51.383Z · LW · GW

Flossing in the shower.

I went from seldom flossing to flossing every single day, improving my gum health significantly.