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Comment by cistrane on What are the counterarguments to a Faustian Vaccine Hypothesis? ($2k charity bounty) · 2022-01-25T20:36:35.147Z · LW · GW

A related question is how many boosters of the same vaccine formulation will be required in the future and what is the safety profile of regularly repeated mRNA boosters, because the second Faustian hypothesis is that these vaccines are doing subtle but permanent damage to organs (e.g. heart or reproductive system or brain) which will accumulate until the damage is apparent and common. The appearance of increased myocarditis/pericarditis and menstrual disorders for which no mechanism is proposed is the smoke hiding a much bigger fire. 

Comment by cistrane on What are the counterarguments to a Faustian Vaccine Hypothesis? ($2k charity bounty) · 2022-01-25T20:25:26.599Z · LW · GW

We all live in Dunbar sized bubbles. Very few people have more than 150 people for which they could know medical histories enough to answer these questions.

Comment by cistrane on What are the counterarguments to a Faustian Vaccine Hypothesis? ($2k charity bounty) · 2022-01-25T20:22:47.578Z · LW · GW

Which is why the Wikipedia article says that ADE is definitely not a problem for the initial strain. All the vaccine trials looked for it and did not find it 

Comment by cistrane on Covid 1/20/22: Peak Omicron · 2022-01-22T19:54:26.031Z · LW · GW

Look on the bright side. If the next variant is even less virulent than Omicron, you will stop caring about covid too.

Comment by cistrane on Covid 1/20/22: Peak Omicron · 2022-01-22T19:51:43.299Z · LW · GW

They were put down, put underground and contaminated ground waters. There were 55 million of them

Comment by cistrane on Covid 1/20/22: Peak Omicron · 2022-01-22T17:26:16.467Z · LW · GW

Coincidentally, Serbia just revoked the exploration licenses of Australian mining company Rio Tinto in Serbia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60081853

Is that retaliation for the way Australia treated their best tennis player? 

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #15 · 2022-01-20T09:33:23.096Z · LW · GW

What is the cause of this? If Omicron is so very contagious, and it is already close to peak in many places in Europe, why is Ukraine so late?

Comment by cistrane on A decision tree for vaccinating children against Covid-19, or how to wisely make a monumental decision · 2022-01-18T20:27:21.196Z · LW · GW

How do you assign probability that a child will develop complications from the vaccine, they will be permanent but not lethal. E.g. The child will be sterile.

Comment by cistrane on Storing own covid saliva for use as a "booster"? · 2022-01-18T15:36:24.388Z · LW · GW

You are going to be freezing a lot of other microorganisms in your sample. Some of them could be harmful when introduced to nasal cavity at the wrong time. 

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #14 · 2022-01-18T10:18:43.839Z · LW · GW

At the end of 2020, the CDC estimated ~85 million infections. There were however only 32 million cases at that time. A large fraction of the difference would be asymptomatic.

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #14 · 2022-01-18T10:09:50.009Z · LW · GW

The point is, it might not matter what we do with omicron, the next VOC can still come out of some animal viral pool from a virus variant we know nothing about 

Comment by cistrane on How the response to a pandemic affecting mainly children would look like? · 2022-01-09T22:34:34.846Z · LW · GW

In your counterfactual example, we would have a much better warning coming from the third world. They would be hit much harder by the virus that affects the young disproportionately. We would literally see on TV millions of dead children in Third World countries perhaps even before the virus established a strong foothold. The beginning of the pandemic would look completely different. Isolating small children from any ways of getting in contact with the virus would become the highest priority until vaccines were developed. More different treatments would be tried. Small children would become treated as immune compromised bubble boys. They would be living in a bubble. 

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #13: Outlook · 2022-01-09T22:09:15.793Z · LW · GW

Does this mean that it is too late to vaccinate now or that the deadline for an unvaccinated to vaccinate is rapidly approaching?

Comment by cistrane on How reasonable are concerns about asking for patents to be lifted for COVID-19 vaccines? · 2022-01-09T21:36:41.967Z · LW · GW

I am not answering the question but what do you think of this?

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-eyes-higher-covid-19-vaccine-prices-after-pandemic-exec-analyst

Should Pfizer now or in the future be able to collect a 500% premium on these vaccines?

Comment by cistrane on How to End a Pandemic · 2022-01-08T19:18:43.634Z · LW · GW

Vaccinated people are also at risk from other vaccinated people.  If vaccinated people are careless and engage in many high risk activities in the enclosed environment, the advantages of vaccination will be reduced. 

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #12 · 2022-01-08T19:12:01.927Z · LW · GW

Well, if this is consistently applied across many events, the unvaccinated will not be allowed risky activities and the vaccinated will be allowed risky activities. Which means in practice consistently higher number of risky activities available for the vaccinated. I agree that this effect might not be significantly big and more measurements would be needed.

Comment by cistrane on How to End a Pandemic · 2022-01-06T06:11:46.731Z · LW · GW

When you wear it for a day. For longer periods one also needs to be trained to take care of the PPE. Cleaning, storage, retc.

Half the population have IQ less than 100. You are going to set up training stations or the PPE will fail soon for a large percentage of population.

Comment by cistrane on How to End a Pandemic · 2022-01-06T01:42:08.109Z · LW · GW

I don't understand why vaccinated people should prefer not being close to unvaccinated people.

Comment by cistrane on How to End a Pandemic · 2022-01-06T01:40:37.289Z · LW · GW

More effective PPE require more training in their use. 

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #12 · 2022-01-06T01:13:33.193Z · LW · GW

But effectively, the unvaccinated were not allowed to have the same level of risk as vaccinated if they couldn't come to the event, right?

Comment by cistrane on COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science · 2022-01-05T14:24:59.160Z · LW · GW

Would you expect a fairly large noticeable nocebo effect in populations which are scared by vaccination but forced into it by government or employer vaccine mandates?

Comment by cistrane on Omicron: My Current Model · 2022-01-01T18:08:40.550Z · LW · GW

Consider that in March it is much more likely that Paxlovid will be widely available than in February.

Comment by cistrane on COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science · 2022-01-01T14:07:22.778Z · LW · GW

Can anyone help me make sense of this paper? 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355581860_COVID_vaccination_and_age-stratified_all-cause_mortality_risk

Comment by cistrane on How should we adjust microCOVID estimates for omicron, boosters, testing? · 2022-01-01T13:58:41.792Z · LW · GW

If you are vaccinated, disregard any advantage microcovid gives to vaccination status. Then adjust all microcovid estimates upward by about 50%. This should give you a risk estimate consistant with new omicron data.

Comment by cistrane on Covid 12/30: Infinity War · 2021-12-31T15:17:40.902Z · LW · GW

"Half the people who aren’t vaccinated have sufficiently strong priors against doing anything new that they’re having none of it, it all sounds super suspicious to them, and you’re not going to tell them different. The alternative hypothesis, which I find less plausible, is that the political divide carries over to everything else automatically at this point, which is functionally the same but has some different implications."

Could a significant number of people refusing both vaccines and Paxlovid be biased against Pfizer? 

Comment by cistrane on COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science · 2021-12-31T14:12:06.708Z · LW · GW

How long is that long term? We don't know yet but it could be fairly short compared to a condition that can permanently damage one's heart.

Comment by cistrane on COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science · 2021-12-31T14:07:08.707Z · LW · GW

That depends on age and comorbidities. That probability is highly stratified. There are some population where P(hospitalized|covid) is >5%

Comment by cistrane on COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science · 2021-12-30T11:44:03.593Z · LW · GW

Vaccinating to herd immunity proved impossible

Comment by cistrane on COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science · 2021-12-30T11:39:33.636Z · LW · GW

Let's say you are a man in his 20s. in USA You believe (perhaps mistakenly) that if you get sick with covid, the government will foot the bill. On the other hand, if you get the rare myocarditis from the vaccine, you will be stuck with the bills. Does this create a weird incentive for a young man to avoid vaccination on the grounds of financial risk of ruin?

Comment by cistrane on COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science · 2021-12-29T21:47:49.876Z · LW · GW

We live in in a roughly Dunbar-sized group. If no one died of Covid in your group but one or two people were hurt by vaccines, you will be scared of vaccines.

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #9 · 2021-12-26T00:24:39.000Z · LW · GW

And that new variant is even more infectious. Otherwise it gets drowned.

Comment by cistrane on Testing, Testing, Hopefully · 2021-12-25T22:02:49.091Z · LW · GW

FDA is wrong. If tests are abundant, one can test every day and there is no problem of misplaced confidence.

Comment by cistrane on Quick Poll: Booster Reactions · 2021-12-22T15:04:35.702Z · LW · GW

How many were affected by more than 7 days?

Comment by cistrane on Understand the exponential function: R0 of the COVID · 2021-12-19T17:52:46.363Z · LW · GW

it is possible that over 50% will get it. 

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #6 · 2021-12-19T16:11:31.466Z · LW · GW

In US, the CDC estimates 145 million infections to date, which is close to 45% of population. 

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #6 · 2021-12-19T14:03:54.875Z · LW · GW

On what data do you base the estimate that 90% of the world population haven't been infected by the novel coronavirus by now?

Comment by cistrane on Covid 12/16: On Your Marks · 2021-12-18T17:26:04.078Z · LW · GW

The answer to your question 4 "When supply isn’t limited, how do we get it to people in time?" is the same way Viagra is distributed, through spam messages in your email

Comment by cistrane on COVID and the holidays · 2021-12-13T13:01:50.645Z · LW · GW

There is a small chance that you will lose more than two days after a booster due to an unusually strong reaction.

Comment by cistrane on EA Dinner Covid Logistics · 2021-12-13T12:40:22.355Z · LW · GW

I see no mention of humidity controls. With the way you set up airflow, if you got chilly, it is likely the humidity went lower than 40%. This is not recommended as the sinus membranes dry out and the protection against viral infection is much reduced.

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-11T16:52:41.510Z · LW · GW

Do we have a lot of data on people who had the third booster four months ago?

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-11T06:09:29.930Z · LW · GW

You can do better than vaccinated lite. Since we know that neutralization titers in vaccinated decline as a function of time from vaccination, we can say that the unvaccinated recovered are like vaccinated ~4 months from vaccination, or 5 months and then we can treat everyone as vaccinated with x time passed from last vaccination.

Comment by cistrane on Covid 12/9: Counting Down the Days · 2021-12-10T20:41:21.625Z · LW · GW

How about one of those cider hats?

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-10T19:47:31.428Z · LW · GW

Exponential curves look linear at short intervals.

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-10T19:41:40.323Z · LW · GW

We could start by naively assuming that recovering from covid infection and vaccination against covid are completely independent. For a state with 50% vaccination rate, there would be 50% of the unvaccinated and about half of all unvaccinated would be previously infected.

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-10T19:36:35.805Z · LW · GW

Existing mRNA vaccines theoretically provide antibodies to about 42 epitopes of the original spike protein. So, they are very effective against the original strain as any one of these antibodies would be neutralizing.

Let's say for example that only 10 out of 42 are neutralizing for omicron. That means that many people will be unlucky and not produce enough of the right antibodies to stop the omicron at first, thus their protection has eroded. But some will be lucky enough to produce the necessary amount of the right antibodies. So the protection was not completely bypassed.

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-10T19:30:53.841Z · LW · GW

How would this policy affect the price of the vaccines?

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-10T19:28:55.709Z · LW · GW

How do you incorporate unvaccinated who recovered from covid in your model? Are they equivalent to vaccinated?

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #4 · 2021-12-10T19:15:22.060Z · LW · GW

In US States with low vaccination rates, what is the estimated amount of people who already recovered from earlier covid strains? If it is higher than in South Africa, most of these recovered unvaccinated will have protection which is similar to vaccinated but without a booster.

Comment by cistrane on Should we postpone getting a booster due to Omicron, till there are Omicron-specific boosters? · 2021-12-10T18:48:20.377Z · LW · GW

But note the R0 for Omicron. It seems to be able blow the competition away in any location it establishes.

Comment by cistrane on Omicron Post #3 · 2021-12-05T12:23:03.464Z · LW · GW

Does omicron make vaccine mandates less important or more important?