Show LW: Get a phone call if prediction markets predict nuclear war 2023-09-17T22:25:21.206Z


Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Hand-writing MathML · 2023-09-23T19:52:22.613Z · LW · GW

Though I could see including a LaTeX-to-MathML or a MathML-verbosifier step at build time.


This should be something GPT excels at: If your editor supports gpt plugins 


Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Show LW: Get a phone call if prediction markets predict nuclear war · 2023-09-19T07:29:34.106Z · LW · GW

No I'm Lorenzo!

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Show LW: Get a phone call if prediction markets predict nuclear war · 2023-09-18T18:52:10.546Z · LW · GW

I've placed some limit orders on both. It's cheaper than subsidies and should work the same way (if there is no nuclear war)

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on SmartyHeaderCode: anomalous tokens for GPT3.5 and GPT-4 · 2023-04-16T10:15:29.787Z · LW · GW

Does LLaMA have any weird/unspeakable tokens? I've played around with it a bit and I haven't found any (I played with it for a very short time though).

Here are the LLaMA tokens, if anyone's curious. Sadly I couldn't find anything as interesting as " SolidGoldMagikarp"

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Write a Book? · 2023-03-16T00:28:08.717Z · LW · GW

A lot of this depends on how I approach it: is this something I should work on after the kids go to bed, when I typically write blog posts? Or should I consider trying to go part-time at work, take leave, or quit? I haven't yet talked to people at work about this, but I would lean towards taking leave or going part time: if this is worth doing it's probably worth focusing on. That I think what I'm currently doing is valuable, though, means that there's a higher bar than just "does this seem like a good book to exist."


I wonder if it would make sense to write it as a series of blog posts (like the sequences, HPMOR, and "Wait But Why Year One: We finally figured out how to put a blog onto an e-reader"), at least for the first few chapters.

It seems it could provide the usual advantages of agile development, and get you some quick (self-)feedback in a lower-stakes environment (even though as you mention this has many downsides).

As someone who's trying a bit of community building, I would love more books, and the topics you are suggesting are super interesting in terms of helping many people do more good.

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Shutting Down the Lightcone Offices · 2023-03-15T13:48:55.980Z · LW · GW

Thank you for sharing this, I was wondering about your perspective on these topics.

I am really curious about the intended counterfactual of this move. My understanding is that the organizations that were using the office raised funds for a new office in a few weeks (from the same funding pool that funds Lightcone), so their work will continue in a similar way.

Is the main goal to have Lightcone focus more on the Rose Garden Inn? What are your plans there, do you have projects in mind for "slowing down AI progress, pivotal acts, intelligence enhancement, etc."? Anything people can help with?

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Bankless Podcast: 159 - We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky · 2023-02-21T09:26:49.082Z · LW · GW Interesting that it seems like he's leaving MIRI

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Top YouTube channel Veritasium releases video on Sleeping Beauty Problem · 2023-02-12T13:22:01.182Z · LW · GW

See for LessWrong posts on this problem from the past 14 years

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Small Go Boards · 2023-01-21T15:31:07.573Z · LW · GW

5x5 is way too tiny, do you play with a komi of 24 or do you use it mostly for teaching new players?

Edit: it seems both, nevermind

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on We don’t trade with ants · 2023-01-11T10:22:59.915Z · LW · GW

Someone on Twitter mentioned slave owners similarly "not just trading" with slaves who could talk. I think it's a better analogy than factory farmed animals.

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on We don’t trade with ants · 2023-01-11T08:32:51.424Z · LW · GW

Does what we do to factory farmed animals count as "trading" feed and shelter in exchange of meat, eggs and diary?

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Let’s think about slowing down AI · 2022-12-24T08:41:04.144Z · LW · GW

I loved the link to the "Resisted Technological Temptations Project", for a bunch of examples of resisted/slowed technologies that are not "eating sand", and have an enormous upside:

  • GMOs, in some countries
  • Nuclear power, in some countries
  • Genetic engineering of humans
  • Geoengineering, many actors
  • Chlorofluorocarbons, many actors, 1985-present
  • Human challenge trials
  • Dietary restrictions, in most (all?) human cultures [restrict much more than sand, often quite good stuff!]

I would tentatively add:

  • organ donor markets (at least for kidneys)
  • drug development in general (see all of Scott's posts on the FDA slowing things down, I would love to see an AIA slowing things down)
Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Consider working more hours and taking more stimulants · 2022-12-18T10:41:03.558Z · LW · GW

But weightlifting and working longer hours would still help in both explore and exploit, right?

Why do you get the impression that Adderall and similar don't help with exploring for 50 hours a week? e.g. Erdos explored quite a lot

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Mildly Against Donor Lotteries · 2022-11-02T08:21:02.575Z · LW · GW

which I thought was a total waste and if that was what they were going to do they should have donated to LTFF in the first place

I don't understand what was wasted. Do you estimate the costs of running the lottery to be significant?

I don't think there are any extra financial transactions, if you would donate from the same platform in both the lottery and non-lottery cases. (In both cases you donate to EA funds / GWWC, and they then donate it to the org, so 2 transactions)

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Mildly Against Donor Lotteries · 2022-11-02T00:17:59.391Z · LW · GW

In theory, yes, but I don't think it has ever happened in practice.

It has happened that you never find out P because the winner doesn't reveal their recommendations, though

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Prototyping in C · 2022-09-06T12:45:54.175Z · LW · GW

Thanks for the reply!

I haven't tried PyPy for this particular project, but my experience previously had been that while I usually got a bit of speedup it wasn't typically much.

That's also my experience in most cases, but in others can be much faster. It does especially well on code with lots of looping that can be JITted.
As a data point, is ~3x faster on my machine (takes 0.8 seconds vs 3 seconds on 100k lines of length 151 containing FF).
Which probably is not enough to make a difference, but might still be useful.

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Prototyping in C · 2022-09-04T20:30:26.501Z · LW · GW

Probably dumb questions:

 - Have you tried PyPy? It might increase the number of cases where python is good enough.

 - Why C instead of C++? (I assume Rust would slow down prototyping speed because of the borrow checker). Is it because you're more familiar with it from your side projects?

Comment by Lorenzo (lorenzo-buonanno) on Amsterdam, Netherlands – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2021 · 2021-09-24T19:22:01.846Z · LW · GW

An email was sent yesterday confirming the meetup tomorrow:

I hope it's fine to post it here, otherwise feel free to delete the comment:

On Saturday, we're having the first "official" Amsterdam ACX meetup — exciting! Unfortunately, Scott has not responded to our last emails, so I don't think he'll be there. 

The weather looks good, so we can keep the Westerpark location (in front of Ijscuypje). I will be holding a sign. 

We'll probably be sitting in the grass, so please bring blankets if you have some. 

There's no agenda because I think people are mostly eager to socialize. However, if you have any interesting games, objects, or ideas, please bring them! 

We have an Uber Eats voucher, so no need to bring any snacks.