Law of No Evidence

It purports to treat evidence the way it would be treated in a court of criminal law, where only some facts are ‘admissible’ and the defendant is to be considered innocent until proven guilty using only those facts. Other facts don’t count.

Relevant: Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence [LW · GW]. It might be good to mention the reason why the domains of science and law have different standards for evidence, like Eliezer's article does. I think they take those standards way too far, but it does seem helpful to have that context.

This is not an ‘honest’ mistake. This is a systematic anti-epistemic superweapon engineered to control what people are allowed and not allowed to think based on social power, in direct opposition to any and all attempts to actually understand and model the world and know things based on one’s information. Anyone wielding it should be treated accordingly.

I don't get this impression. I have a hard time articulating why though. I just get the impression that people are genuinely confused. They are taught stuff about how science works. They think things "don't count" until they pass some arbitrary threshold. Something like the doctor in this Overcoming Bias post. Some context: I'd guess I'm in the 95th percentile or higher amongst rationalists in how pissed I get when I hear "no evidence".

Not only is this ‘bad science communication’ it is also ‘not how this works, not how any of this works’ where ‘this’ is knowledge or actual science (as opposed to the brand the scientism of Science(TM)) and most importantly it is also evidence of bullshit, as per my proposed Law of No Evidence

I have a weird feeling that lots of smart people are angry about this "no evidience" thing for the wrong reason. Which is an evidence that I'm missing something, so I'd be glad if someone explained it to me.

Isn't the main problem that people are using the same phrase in two completely different circumstances: 1) we haven't find anything, despite looking into the matter 2) we haven't looked yet. Then why are we freaking out about what exactly this phrase actually means, isn't it basically arguing about definitions?

When I try to imagine a good reason for this I arrive to something like this: a layperson upon hearing "no evidence" assumes that there are literally no evidience in the bayesian sense. But I have troubles believing it. A layperson probably doesn't know about Bayes and doesn't think in this terms. When they see "No evidience of X" they probably translate to "Experts disapprove of X". Nothing important would change if we had a different obscuring phrase, would it? The problem is not the phrase itself, the problem that the phrase is obscuring. 

This is not an ‘honest’ mistake. This is a systematic anti-epistemic superweapon engineered to control what people are allowed and not allowed to think based on social power, in direct opposition to any and all attempts to actually understand and model the world and know things based on one’s information. Anyone wielding it should be treated accordingly.

I also have troubles with all the "deliberate misinformation superweapon" angle. I have a feeling that it once again shifts the discussion from the important "how we need to distinguish two completely different cases" to something else, namely "how everyone who uses a specific phrase is a bad person and how we are outraged about it!" This gives me huge culture war flashbacks and strikes me as not being helpful.

Here is my model how this state of affairs came into being. 

In the first case:

1. Scientists, being 'extremely virtious' [LW · GW], do not directly claim that X is false, instead they say that they do not have any evidence in favour of X, with some reasonable definition of "evidence", leaving themselves line of retreat.
2. Journalists repeat the claim but do not make sure to explain what exactly scientists mean by "evidence" because it would be borring.
3. With time it became a cool snappy phrase in laypeople terms meaning "Scientists think that X is false and they have good reasons for it"

In the second case:

1. Scientists, when directly asked, agree that there is no evidence for Y, which is technically true, but misleading because they were underconfident in the first case.
2. Journalists ask exactly this because it's a cool snappy phrase which everyone uses.
3. Laypeople become overconfident that Y is just as false as X because the same phrase is used in both cases.

Originally no one needed to be malicious here. People were just following their incentives. Now, of course, people can use this broken communication pipeline to push their narrative and this is a problem. But it will be automatically fixed as soon as we fix the pipeline itself. What's the point of invoking conflict theory here?

Suggestion: Call it "The Law of 'No Evidence'".  Because it's not a law about states of being where there is a lack of evidence; it's a law about when someone is using the specific phrase "no evidence".

In some cases it's evidence of cowardice, which could be seen as a form of bullshit. I'm thinking of situations where absence of evidence really is evidence of absence. If you do an exhaustive or near-exhaustive search for something, and you're unable to find it - that's pretty solid evidence of non-existence. And if you're stopping at "lack of evidence" you're implying something about the size of your "evidence space" and you owe it to people to explain why you think it's large relative to what's already been canvassed. So...still bullshit, no matter how you cut it.

I am worried that in environments that it is important to take ques to act it is often also important not to take the wrong cues to act. In the spirit of equal and opposite advice I propose The Law of Escalating Indiscrimination: The more important a topic is the less people are willing to tolerate ambiguity. The only way to make sure your problem goes away is to nuke it from orbit. With sufficient will to make things go away there is less conditioning to external circumstances. It doesn't matter to determine whether the problem is big or small if you want to be super sure it is fully away you are still going to nuke it either way. Only if lesser options such as "kill it with fire" or "detain it" would sometimes be selected is there a need to resolve whether we are in world A or B. "Shot first, ask questions later" is not stricly superior to the other way around.

I would imagine that headlines that focus on the level of proof would read like "Rumored serial killer still not caught readhanded" or "Witchhunt still bears no fruit". There are different thesholds for people on what it enough to act on and it is never going to be 100% certainty nor 100% arbitrariness. Even in a trial "guilty" and "not guilty" is mostly how we are going to handle the situation. "not guilty" by sowing resonable doubt is still a "did not happen" outcome. In pleading there is a special plea of no contest, Nolo contendre, "I didn't do it but you can prove that I did" when we want to tease out the question of whether events happened according to accused or not. I guess a plea of "I did it, but you can't prove it" is not a thing because self-admission would be sufficient to go the usual guilty route. However prosecutors have the power of dropping the prosecution to do a nolle prosequi "they might have done it but we can't prove they did". Usually we assume and the system strivers for prosecutors to be more pushy than the court overall would be, ie it should next to 0 rare that a case that would have resulted in a conviction if it went into court did not do so because the prosecution was not pushed (so the prosecutional discretion is more supposed to be about hopeless vs hopeful prosecutions).

I think this post was important. I used the phrase 'Law of No Evidence: Any claim that there is “no evidence” of something is evidence of bullshit' several times (mostly in reply to tweets using that phrase or when talking about an article that uses the phrase).

Was it important intellectual progress? I think so. Not as a cognitive tool for use in an ideal situation, where you and others are collaboratively truth-seeking - but for use in adversarial situations, where people, institutions and authorities lie, mislead and gaslight you.

It is not a tool meant to be used with your friends, it's not something we should want to see used on LessWrong. It is a a weapon to wield against the dark arts [? · GW]. And In that case, it is a sharp razor that shreds claims of no evidence made in bad faith or ignorance.

I did hope it would become more memetic. On the other hand, I haven't seen as much claims of no evidence lately, so perhaps this post was part of successful push against that strategy. Anyway, here's a meme version I just made. Feel free to use it:

I wonder what a better phrase would be. "No conclusive evidence" is the first thing that comes to mind, but that word "conclusive" is too strong.

Edit: Maybe "No strong evidence"?

How to say what the "motte-and-bailey" is used to mean:

Improperly:

No evidence (of effect.)

Properly:

Evidence of absence (of effect.)

In the context of deciding how to handle a pandemic under uncertainty, or trying to model the world in the course of everyday life to make decisions, using the standards and sets of procedures of a criminal court is obvious nonsense.

That depends on the person's goals. If your goal as a politician or as a government bureaucrat is to maximize your time in office then that can be a very good standard given the incentives in those areas. I believe in most cases "There is no evidence" is short for "I don't want to be on record as making judgements on my own because then I could be punished for a judgement that turns out wrong".

IF a claim of no evidence is made with respect to the claim of X; and X can be shown to be incoherent, then it would seem to be the case that the claim of there being no evidence can be considered correct given that evidence is literally an impossibility.  Or am I missing something?

There is also the issue of the term evidence given the different meanings assigned to the term, however, that is not a primary point of concern at this moment.

I have my own ranking of types of evidence, from most to least scientific, where "scientific" means "good", starting with induction (repeated observations, replicated experiments), logical deductions, interpolation, authority... and ending with popularity, intuition, superstition, dreams, faith... So, as long as some of these "evidences" can be found, instead of saying "there is no evidence" I say "there is little evidence" and avoid misconnotation while being precise with the denotation. No irony

Examples: There is no evidence for the existence of human races. There is no evidence for biological differences between the sexes.

I will trust a person that states: "I think the sky is brown." more than a person that counters with: "The sky is certainly not brown, it is gray, because we have not seen it."