Everything Okay 2021-01-23T14:50:09.375Z
Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner 2021-01-21T16:40:00.941Z
Covid: The Question of Immunity From Infection 2021-01-20T15:50:01.101Z
Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments 2021-01-14T17:30:01.468Z
Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns 2021-01-07T17:00:01.843Z
Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling 2021-01-06T18:30:01.715Z
Covid 12/31: Meet the New Year 2020-12-31T17:20:01.393Z
What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating? 2020-12-25T21:37:25.264Z
Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over 2020-12-24T15:10:02.975Z
On Robin Hanson’s “Social Proof, but of What?” 2020-12-20T22:20:02.515Z
Covid 12/17: The First Dose 2020-12-17T14:20:01.106Z
Motive Ambiguity 2020-12-15T18:10:01.372Z
Covid 12/10: Vaccine Approval Day in America 2020-12-10T14:20:02.012Z
Covid 12/3: Land of Confusion 2020-12-03T14:20:01.900Z
Covid 11/26: Thanksgiving 2020-11-26T14:50:01.719Z
Covid 11/19: Don’t Do Stupid Things 2020-11-19T16:00:00.895Z
2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem 2020-11-18T23:00:01.166Z
Covid 11/12: The Winds of Winter 2020-11-12T14:30:01.387Z
Covid 11/5: Don’t Mention the War 2020-11-05T14:20:03.374Z
What Belongs in my Glossary? 2020-11-02T19:52:58.009Z
Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About 2020-10-29T15:10:00.940Z
Spoiler-Free Review and then Semi-Walkthrough: Star Traders: Frontiers 2020-10-27T18:50:01.179Z
Covid 10/22: Europe in Crisis 2020-10-22T15:40:01.080Z
The Uncertainty of Death and Taxes 2020-10-21T18:10:01.467Z
PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong 2020-10-18T22:40:00.968Z
Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over 2020-10-15T14:30:01.742Z
Covid 10/8: October Surprise 2020-10-08T13:20:01.665Z
Covid 10/1: The Long Haul 2020-10-01T18:00:00.848Z
Covid 9/24: Until Morale Improves 2020-09-24T15:40:02.594Z
Spoiler-Free Review: The Stanley Parable 2020-09-24T14:40:01.655Z
Covid 9/17: It’s Worse 2020-09-17T15:10:01.649Z
Spoiler-Free Review: Orwell 2020-09-16T13:30:02.648Z
Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election 2020-09-14T14:40:01.941Z
Covid 9/10: Vitamin D 2020-09-10T19:00:01.664Z
The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels 2020-09-07T15:00:02.899Z
Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC 2020-09-03T13:40:01.019Z
Spoiler-Free Review: Death and Taxes 2020-08-29T13:10:01.216Z
Covid 8/27: The Fall of the CDC 2020-08-27T14:10:01.636Z
I Started a Sports and Gambling Substack 2020-08-25T21:30:00.876Z
Covid 8/20: A Little Progress 2020-08-20T14:30:00.920Z
WordPress Destroys Editing Process, Seeking Alternatives 2020-08-18T15:50:00.842Z
Covid 8/13: Same As It Ever Was 2020-08-13T15:40:02.339Z
Covid 8/6: The Case of the Missing Data 2020-08-06T21:40:00.880Z
Unifying the Simulacra Definitions 2020-08-03T12:10:01.076Z
Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole 2020-07-30T15:50:04.756Z
New Paper on Herd Immunity Thresholds 2020-07-29T20:50:01.242Z
Covid 7/23: The Second Summit 2020-07-23T14:40:00.980Z
Fresh Bread 2020-07-21T20:40:00.994Z
Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask 2020-07-16T12:40:00.663Z
Covid-19: Analysis of Mortality Data 2020-07-11T21:30:01.397Z


Comment by zvi on Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner · 2021-01-22T00:46:06.042Z · LW · GW

I was observing what happens when you allocate via politics, rather than endorsing the opposite solution, which isn't being proposed by anyone that I can see. I was not suggesting we should reward virtuous people over non-virtuous people. Rather, I was pointing out that the current system systematically rewards non-virtuous people with life saving medicine, at the expense of virtuous people, using the criteria of non-virtue.  If "are you willing to lie?" is the test one must pass to get vaccine, that seems like it should be highlighted, and that it is not a good policy.

 Centrally, I was pointing out (and to) the implications and consequences of doing that. I was not suggesting reversed stupidity - e.g. I would not support withholding vaccine from the people in question. 

I think I have made my first best solution very clear, and also have made my second best realistic suggestion (age bands only) also very clear. 

I commit to saying no more on the subject of this section, since it has major demon thread potential. 

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner · 2021-01-22T00:39:38.075Z · LW · GW

That second one is a weird copy/paste bug, the first one is me forgetting a word. Mods, you can reimport to fix.

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner · 2021-01-21T22:29:08.599Z · LW · GW

Wow, Pfizer actively punishing countries for extracting extra doses is one even I didn't see coming. 

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner · 2021-01-21T22:27:36.610Z · LW · GW

All makes sense, but I would note that if a strain had escaped sufficiently to fully reinfect, that would be a huge advantage already, 20%+ of the population has already been infected including most of those taking them most risks. 

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner · 2021-01-21T19:11:07.336Z · LW · GW

Interesting. Thank you for the note, in America that would definitely have had big negative connotations. So when they say scheme is it closer to our 'plan'?

Comment by zvi on Covid: The Question of Immunity From Infection · 2021-01-20T20:26:27.060Z · LW · GW

That's pretty alarming if true. Certainly the paper you linked to suggests that being hospitalized for Covid-19 is an indication that things are quite bad, and recovering for now does not mean things are all better. 

Comment by zvi on Do you fear the rock or the hard place? · 2021-01-18T15:09:19.553Z · LW · GW

Building off Raemon's review, this feels like it is an attempt to make a 101-style point that everyone needs to understand if they don't already (not as rationalists, but as people in general) but that seems to me like it fails because those reading it will fall into the categories of (1) those who already got it and (2) those who need to get it but won't. 

Comment by zvi on The Costs of Reliability · 2021-01-18T15:05:30.414Z · LW · GW

This is a very important point to have intuitively integrated into one's model, and I charge a huge premium to activities that require this kind of reliability. I hope it makes the cut.

I also note that someone needs to write The Costs of Unreliability and I authorize reminding me in 3 months that I need to do this.

Comment by zvi on Approval Extraction Advertised as Production · 2021-01-18T15:00:39.359Z · LW · GW

This was a great idea, but I think the spreadsheet fails on two fronts - first, it's measuring the end product rather than the founders and how they operate and attempt to scale, which is the primary thing Benquo is talking about here I believe, and two is that if I ranked these companies I don't think there would be that much correlation with these rankings. 

In the examples from the comment, and judging purely on nature of product since I don't know the founders or early histories much, I'd have had Twitch as positive while I had Doordash as negative, I'd agree with Dropbox and Gusto, and Scale is a weird case where we think the product is bad if it is real but that's orthogonal to the main point here. 

Looking at the S&P 500 I see the same thing. Amazon at 0 seems insane to me (I'd be +lots) and McDonalds at -2 even more so especially in its early days (The Founder is a very good movie about its origins). 

Comment by zvi on Partial summary of debate with Benquo and Jessicata [pt 1] · 2021-01-17T00:00:50.360Z · LW · GW

As someone who was involved in the conversations, and who cares about and focuses on such things frequently, this continues to feel important to me, and seems like one of the best examples of an actual attempt to do the thing being done, which is itself (at least partly) an example of the thing everyone is trying to figure out how to do. 

What I can't tell is whether anyone who wasn't involved is able to extract the value. So in a sense, I "trust the vote" on this so long as people read it first, or at least give it a chance, because if that doesn't convince them it's worthwhile, then it didn't work. Whereas if it does convince them, it's great and we should include it.

Comment by zvi on Make more land · 2021-01-15T20:28:16.006Z · LW · GW

This idea seems obviously correct, all the responses to objections seem correct, and the chance of this happening any time soon is about epsilon. 

In some sense I wish the reasons it will never happen were less obvious than they are, so it would be a better example of our inability to do things that are obviously correct. 

The question is, how much does this add to the collection. Do we want to use a slot on practical good ideas that we could totally do if we could do things, and used to do? I'm not sure. 

Comment by zvi on Does it become easier, or harder, for the world to coordinate around not building AGI as time goes on? · 2021-01-15T20:21:24.952Z · LW · GW

One factor no one mentions here is the changing nature of our ability to coordinate at all. If our ability to coordinate in general is breaking down rapidly, which seems at least highly plausible, then that will likely carry over to AGI, and until that reverses it will continuously make coordination on AGI harder same as everything else. 

In general, this post and the answers felt strangely non-"messy" in that sense, although there's also something to be said for the abstract view. 

In terms of inclusion, I think it's a question that deserves more thought, but I didn't feel like the answers here (in OP and below) were enlightening enough to merit inclusion. 

Comment by zvi on Some Ways Coordination is Hard · 2021-01-15T20:15:08.203Z · LW · GW

I just reviewed the OP this post responds to, and sounds like we're thinking along similar lines in many ways - I'd like to see a Big Book of Coordination at some point, and hold both posts back until then, or if people like both enough include both.

Here is my offer: Cherry-picking examples is bad, and worry that someone cherry-picked them is also bad. Appearance of impropriety, register your experiments, other neat stuff like that. So if Raemon or someone else compiles a list of the concrete examples, I'll make at least an ordinary effort to do a post about them, intended to be similar to things like Simple Rules of Law. 

Comment by zvi on The Schelling Choice is "Rabbit", not "Stag" · 2021-01-15T20:09:32.911Z · LW · GW

So I reread this post, found I hadn't commented... and got a strong desire to write a response post until I realized I'd already written it, and it was even nominated. I'd be fine with including this if my response also gets included, but very worried about including this without the response. 

In particular, I felt the need to emphasize the idea that Stag Hunts frame coordination problems as going against incentive gradients and as being maximally fragile and punishing, by default. 

If even one person doesn't get with the program, for any reason, a Stag Hunt fails, and everyone reveals their choices at the same time. Which everyone abstractly knows is the ultimate nightmare scenario and not the baseline, but a lot of the time gets treated (I believe) as the baseline, And That's Terrible.

I don't know what exactly to do about it, introducing yet another framework/name seems expensive at this point, but I think the right baseline coordination is that various people get positive payoffs for an activity that rise with the number of people who do it, and a lot of the time this gets automatically modeled as a strict stag hunt instead, and people throw up their hands and say 'whelp, coordination hard, what you gonna do.' 

Comment by zvi on What are the open problems in Human Rationality? · 2021-01-15T19:52:28.122Z · LW · GW

These are good lists of open problems, although as Ben notes are bad lists if they are to be considered all the open problems. I don't think that is the fault of the post, and it's easy enough to make clear the lists are not meant to be complete. 

This seems like a spot where a good list of open problems is a good idea, but here we're mostly going to be taking a few comments. I think that's still a reasonable use of space, but not exciting enough to think of this as important.

Comment by zvi on The Great Karma Reckoning · 2021-01-15T19:47:26.813Z · LW · GW

Going to take John's comment and this reckoning as a good time to say that while 10x is a large multiplier on top-level front-page posts, 1x is not a large multiplier, and to the extent that karma matters comments are getting too large a share.

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments · 2021-01-15T19:45:22.295Z · LW · GW

No one knows the mix of those two, and it would be great if anyone could give us a straight answer with any confidence, but so far, no luck.

My guess it's mostly you're either immune or mostly immune, or you're not, but I'd really like higher confidence.

Comment by zvi on The Tale of Alice Almost: Strategies for Dealing With Pretty Good People · 2021-01-15T17:47:58.923Z · LW · GW

Echoing Raemon that this has become one of my standard reference points and I anticipate linking to this periodically for a long time. I think it's important. 

I'm also tagging this as something I should build upon explicitly some time soon, when I have the bandwidth for that, and I'm tagging Ben/Raemon to remind me of this in 6 months if I haven't done so yet, whether or not it makes the collection.

These issues are key ones to get right, involve difficult trade-offs, and didn't have a good descriptor that I know about until this post. 

Comment by zvi on Is Rationalist Self-Improvement Real? · 2021-01-15T17:44:05.114Z · LW · GW

Consider this as two posts.

The first post is Basketballism. That post is awesome. Loved it. 

The second post is the rest of the post. That post tries to answer the question in the title, but doesn't feel like it makes much progress to me. There's some good discussion that goes back and forth, but mostly everyone agrees on what should be clear to all: No, rationalism doesn't let you work miracles at will, and we're not obviously transforming the world or getting key questions reliably right. Yes, it seems to be helpful, and generally the people who do it are winning in the senses that locally count, and that likely compound, but the opportunity costs make it unclear how big a win we're getting, etc etc. 

Whereas the argument in the first section was, to me, much more compelling. I think my ideal outcome would be that the collection includes "Basketballism" but not the second part.  

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments · 2021-01-15T14:00:19.375Z · LW · GW

Enough people expressed the desire to pay me for my work on these posts that it made sense to make an easy way to let that happen. So I created a Pateron for that purpose:

No plans to put anything there beyond at most links to posts unless it goes much better than expected, but if you'd like to easily/quickly say thank you in the official unit of caring (e.g. money) that is now something you may do. 

If you want to give a large enough amount that dodging fees matters, you can PM me here on LW for a Crypto address for the coin of your choice, or if desired for my PayPal. 

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments · 2021-01-15T12:51:53.393Z · LW · GW

2 of the 44 reinfections are 'possible' reinfections and the other two are only 'probable.' So my presumption here is that we had zero cases of reinfections that caused serious illness, since none of them were even confirmed. So...

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments · 2021-01-15T12:48:26.064Z · LW · GW

If more people can help ensure we read this correctly that's super important. If it turns out that we're down at 35%, that's amazingly great, and means as I noted on 12/24 that I think we can mostly muddle through. 

Comment by zvi on Everybody Knows · 2021-01-15T05:41:27.165Z · LW · GW

I usually refer back to it by saying that someone is claiming everybody knows, and linking the words 'everybody knows.' I think it's the right title. And I find the ability to use the term everybody knows this way highly useful.

Comment by zvi on Instant stone (just add water!) · 2021-01-14T19:54:06.994Z · LW · GW

I'm all for such things existing and a book entirely composed of such things seems like it should exist, but I don't know what it would be doing in this particular book. 

The combination of the two previous reviews, by hamnox and fiddler, seem to summarize: It's a pure happy infodump that doesn't add much, that gets you a lot of upvotes, and that says more about the voting system than about what is valuable.

Comment by zvi on The strategy-stealing assumption · 2021-01-14T19:50:00.687Z · LW · GW

This post is even-handed and well-reasoned, and explains the issues involved well. The strategy-stealing assumption seems important, as a lot of predictions are inherently relying on it either being essentially true, or effectively false, and I think the assumption will often effectively be a crux in those disagreements, for reasons the post illustrates well.

The weird thing is that Paul ends the post saying he thinks the assumption is mostly true, whereas I thought the post was persuasive that the assumption is mostly false. The post illustrates that the unaligned force is likely to have many strategic and tactical advantages over aligned forces, that should allow the unaligned force to, at a minimum, 'punch above its weight' in various ways even under close-to-ideal conditions. And after the events of 2020, and my resulting updates to my model of humans, I'm highly skeptical that we'll get close to ideal.

Either way, I'm happy to include this.

Comment by zvi on Neural Annealing: Toward a Neural Theory of Everything (crosspost) · 2021-01-14T19:02:04.330Z · LW · GW

This post is hard enough to get through that the original person who nominated it didn't make it, and also I tried and gave up in order to look at more other things instead. I agree that it's possible there is something here, but we didn't build upon it, and if we put it in the book people are going to be confused as to what the hell is going on. I don't think we should include. 

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-14T17:34:51.185Z · LW · GW

Unless it's a bigger hassle than I expect I should be able to do it myself, if I'm gonna do it makes sense I should learn how it works and keep control over it. It looks like they take 8% if you have tiers (which everyone has) and 5% if you don't, and then payment charges, which are 5%+ for small payments and 3% for large ones, so we lose 11% doing this, which pains me. Is this the best we can do?

Comment by zvi on Rationality, Levels of Intervention, and Empiricism · 2021-01-13T20:55:24.175Z · LW · GW

I don't think this post introduced its ideas to many people, including Raemon and Ben who nominated it. Nor does it seem like it provides a superior frame with which to examine those issues. Not recommended.

Comment by zvi on Excerpts from a larger discussion about simulacra · 2021-01-13T20:41:38.901Z · LW · GW

This came out in April 2019, and bore a lot of fruit especially in 2020. Without it, I wouldn't have thought about the simulacra concept and developed the ideas, and without those ideas, I don't think I would have made anything like as much progress understanding 2020 and its events, or how things work in general. 

I don't think this was an ideal introduction to the topic, but it was highly motivating regarding the topic, and also it's a very hard topic to introduce or grok, and this was the first attempt that allowed later attempts. I think we should reward all of that.

Comment by zvi on The AI Timelines Scam · 2021-01-13T20:38:25.867Z · LW · GW

This was important to the discussions around timelines at the time, back when the talk about timelines felt central. This felt like it helped give me permission to no longer consider them as central, and to fully consider a wide range of models of what could be going on. It helped make me more sane, and that's pretty important.

It was also important for the discussion about the use of words and the creation of clarity. There's been a long issue of exactly when and where to use words like "scam" and "lie" to describe things - when is it accurate, when is it useful, what budgets does it potentially use up? How can we describe what we see in the world in a way that creates common knowledge if we can't use words that are literal descriptions? It's something I still struggle with, and this is where the key arguments got made. 

Thus, on reflection, I'd like to see this included.

Comment by zvi on Understanding “Deep Double Descent” · 2021-01-13T20:33:21.460Z · LW · GW

I've stepped back from thinking about ML and alignment the last few years, so I don't know how this fits into the discourse about it, but I felt like I got important insight here and I'd be excited to include this. The key concept that bigger models can be simpler seems very important. 

In my words, I'd say that when you don't have enough knobs, you're forced to find ways for each knob to serve multiple purposes slash combine multiple things, which is messy and complex and can be highly arbitrary, whereas with lots of knobs you can do 'the thing you naturally actually want to do.' And once you get sufficiently powerful, the overfitting danger isn't getting any worse with the extra knobs, so sure, why not?

I also strongly agree with orthonormal that including the follow-up as an addendum adds a lot to this post. If it's worth including this, it's worth including both, even if the follow-up wasn't also nominated. 

Comment by zvi on Simple Rules of Law · 2021-01-13T20:16:56.628Z · LW · GW

I can confirm that if this post does make the cut I will spend time working to make it shorter. This wasn't a 'toss it off quickly' post but it was definitely not given the 'as short as possible' treatment either.

Comment by zvi on Dual Wielding · 2021-01-11T21:59:16.299Z · LW · GW

Self-review: Looking back, this post is one of the first sightings of a simple, very useful concrete suggestion to have chargers ready to go literal everywhere you might want them, and that is a remarkably large life improvement that got through to many people and that I'm very happy I realized. 

However, that could easily be more than all of this post's value, because essentially no one embraced the central concept of Duel Wielding the phones themselves. And after a few months, I stopped doing so as well, in favor of not getting confused about which phone was which, and not having to worry about the location of multiple phones. I wonder if I just got trapped by a Trivial Inconvenience and made a mistake, because I definitely find the lack of the second phone meaningfully expensive every so often, so I should think about a revisit perhaps. 

My guess is that this wouldn't do any harm, but it also isn't doing enough work, so we shouldn't include it.

It might be worth doing a thing where we include literally the final paragraph as if it were its own post, minus its first four words, and lose the rest, as a kind of interlude somewhere?

Comment by zvi on The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments · 2021-01-11T21:48:00.958Z · LW · GW

Echoing previous reviews (it's weird to me the site still suggested this to review anyway, seems like it was covered already?) I would strongly advise against including this. While it has a useful central point - that specificity is important and you should look for and request it - I agree with other reviewers that the style here is very much the set of things LW shouldn't be about, and LWers shouldn't be about, but that others think LW-style people are about, and it's structuring all these discussions as if arguments are soldiers and the goal is to win while being snarky about it.

Frankly, I found the whole thing annoying and boring, and wouldn't have finished it if I wasn't reviewing. 

I don't think changing the central example would overcome any of my core objections to the post, although it would likely improve it.

There's a version of this post that is much shorter, makes the central point quickly, and is something I would link to occasionally, but this very much isn't it. 

Comment by zvi on Unconscious Economics · 2021-01-11T19:26:51.511Z · LW · GW

This points out something true and important that is often not noticed, and definitely is under-considered. That seems very good. The question I ask is, did this cause other people to realize this effect exists, and to remember to notice and think about it more? I don't know either way.

If so, it's an important post, and I'd be at moderately excited to include it. 

If not, it's not worth the space. 

I'm guessing this post could be improved/sharpened relatively easily, if it did get included - it's good, and there's nothing wrong exactly, but feels like it could use some tinkering. 

The nominations cite different places than where I would be excited, which is a sign the post is indeed doing work, but I find it interesting that the most remembered takeaway is something like "if people ignore the incentives the incentives don't agree to ignore you," and the implication that this is a 'why we all can't ignore the incentives' which I think is misplaced but mostly a distinct argument? 

Comment by zvi on Relevance Norms; Or, Gricean Implicature Queers the Decoupling/Contextualizing Binary · 2021-01-09T18:14:12.302Z · LW · GW

At first when I read this, I strongly agreed with Zack's self-review that this doesn't make sense to include in context, but on reflection and upon re-reading the nominations, I think he's wrong and it would add a lot of value per page to do so, and it should probably be included. 

The false dichotomy this dissolves, where either you have to own all implications, so it's bad to say true things that imply things that are true but focus upon would have unpleasant consequences, or it has to be fine to ignore all the extra communication that's involved in what you chose to say in the place and way that you said it - it's not something created by Chris Leong or John Nerst, it's something common, and worth dissolving. 

And this does that quite efficiently, while suggesting a very good common sense solution that, while not fully specified or complete because that's not really possible here, seems clearly the right approach.

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-09T00:35:20.017Z · LW · GW

To be clear, I will happily accept any contributions people want to make, although I don't currently have a Patreon, and I believe this would be motivating rather than demotivating.

But if you'd like to donate it to charity instead, that's great too and I'd ask it be given to MIRI.

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-08T11:17:17.935Z · LW · GW

Will send this to my father for technical evaluation, but this looks like it is testing a particular mutation that is also in the UK variant. It's good and reassuring news to be sure, but I don't think it answers the question we need answered.

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-08T11:13:05.435Z · LW · GW

That's the established way we are doing this. If you want to pay me directly you can PM me for payment details. 

Money is not in any way the reason I write these posts and I've been fortunate in that I can afford to do them without being paid, but good incentives and extra cash are always welcome. 

Comment by zvi on S-Curves for Trend Forecasting · 2021-01-07T22:58:29.334Z · LW · GW

I've known about S-curves for a long time, and I don't think I read this the first time. If you don't know S-curves exist, this has good info, and it seems to be well explained. There are also a few useful nuggets otherwise. As someone who has long known of S-curves, hard to say how big an insight this is to others, but my instinct is that while I have nothing against this post and I'm very glad it exists, this isn't sufficiently essential to justify including. 

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-07T22:47:50.958Z · LW · GW

Definitely need more data, and data would be easy to get. Just need to do the tests.

Your alternative equilibrium... Isn't better...

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-07T18:14:20.287Z · LW · GW

I chose them once when I started and I've been trying to keep the list constant.

Comment by zvi on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-07T18:13:34.949Z · LW · GW

I'll ask him but he was confident on the phone that immunity from prior infection would still transfer.

Comment by zvi on Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling · 2021-01-07T17:00:43.510Z · LW · GW

So you're saying that you think that a more infectious virus will not increase infections by as high a percentage of otherwise expected infections under conditions with more precautions, versus conditions with less precautions? What's the physical mechanism there? I don't understand it, and if I'm going to believe it, I'll need an explanation of physically how it works that way, if it works that way.

As for the outside view thing, well, sure, of course, but it doesn't sound like you have very different models of what might be done by people in these scenarios this time - your theory is that the lockdowns can work. 

But I'd also ask, even if it would be enough, how long do you think England is prepared to keep the Tier 4 + Schools thing in place for and get cooperation? And do you think the USA could get to that level at all at this point? Especially given it only levels things off at a very high level, and doesn't actually make much progress, so you can never relax. And the overall UK numbers are still steadily getting worse.

Comment by zvi on Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling · 2021-01-07T12:20:44.959Z · LW · GW

One could certainly split into low/high with a larger-than-actually-estimated division and call that close enough, or do something continuous in the middle with the assumption that the super-risky top is already spoken for, or something. 

To me there's still a big mystery of why it seems like herd immunity hasn't done more work than it did.

Comment by zvi on Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling · 2021-01-07T02:34:51.677Z · LW · GW

There will be plenty of accepters until after it ends. So I think what this changes is it reduces the favorable selection in vaccination, because you can't do as many vulnerable people, reducing death rate cut somewhat. Nursing home residents who don't vaccinate should still benefit a lot from local here immunity. From what I saw, the elderly refusal rate was relatively low but good data is lacking.

Comment by zvi on Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling · 2021-01-07T02:32:20.467Z · LW · GW

This was USA only. You could do something similar elsewhere if you had the relevant numbers.

My guess is England will come in with less immunity from infections, but is much further along towards its peak. Time is already up there, so the question is whether the super tier 4 can do enough or not.

Comment by zvi on Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling · 2021-01-06T23:33:02.446Z · LW · GW

By assumption here the new strain is more infectious than the old strain, either 50% or 65% more (in the sheet you can set it to anything you like). I am highly confident it's near that range. The control system reacts to the new strain's rise, and the old strain quickly gets wiped out.

It is of course possible for another yet more infectious strain to arise in the future, but I'm not attempting to model that. It would need to happen relatively soon to have much impact, unless it escaped from the vaccines.

Comment by zvi on What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating? · 2021-01-06T15:52:14.322Z · LW · GW

Yes. Seems like a consensus finding.

Comment by zvi on Play in Hard Mode · 2021-01-06T14:02:44.894Z · LW · GW

Mods: Was fixing this because the last video broke, and noticed that the videos from original aren't displaying properly (they should be there in full, not only links), can you fix?