Posts

Covid 12/2: But Aside From That 2021-12-02T16:20:01.240Z
Omicron Post #3 2021-12-02T15:10:00.632Z
Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket 2021-12-02T12:50:00.750Z
FDA Votes on Molunpiravir 2021-12-01T15:00:00.482Z
Omicron Variant Post #2 2021-11-29T16:30:01.368Z
Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over 2021-11-26T19:00:00.988Z
Covid 11/25: Another Thanksgiving 2021-11-25T13:40:00.787Z
Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update 2021-11-24T13:40:01.199Z
Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal 2021-11-18T15:50:00.635Z
Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer 2021-11-15T03:50:01.141Z
Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming 2021-11-11T14:50:02.374Z
Substack Ho? 2021-11-06T16:50:01.012Z
Covid 11/4: The After Times 2021-11-04T15:20:01.362Z
Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions 2021-11-02T23:50:01.283Z
Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory 2021-10-28T14:50:01.072Z
An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking at the Port of Long Beach 2021-10-28T14:40:00.497Z
Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta 2021-10-21T15:10:02.391Z
Covid 10/14: Less Long Cvoid 2021-10-14T14:20:01.250Z
Covid 10/7: Steady as She Goes 2021-10-07T12:10:01.434Z
Covid 9/30: People Respond to Incentives 2021-09-30T18:40:03.862Z
Covid 9/23: There Is a War 2021-09-23T13:30:01.557Z
Covid 9/17: Done Biden His Time 2021-09-17T12:00:01.580Z
Covid 9/9: Passing the Peak 2021-09-09T16:10:01.451Z
Covid 9/2: Long Covid Analysis 2021-09-02T14:50:01.287Z
Guide to Warwick, New York 2021-09-01T13:30:00.803Z
Covid 8/26: Full Vaccine Approval 2021-08-26T13:00:01.491Z
Covid 8/19: Cracking the Booster 2021-08-19T14:20:01.080Z
Covid 8/12: The Worst Is Over 2021-08-12T13:30:00.842Z
Covid 8/5: Much Ado About Nothing 2021-08-05T14:00:00.700Z
Covid 7/29: You Play to Win the Game 2021-07-29T16:10:01.807Z
Covid 7/22: Error Correction 2021-07-22T14:20:01.007Z
Covid 7/15: Rates of Change 2021-07-15T17:10:01.985Z
Covid 7/8: Delta Takes Over 2021-07-08T13:00:00.630Z
Spoiler-Free Review: Roguebook 2021-07-05T11:30:01.050Z
Covid 7/1: Don’t Panic 2021-07-01T12:30:00.502Z
Covid 6/24: The Spanish Prisoner 2021-06-24T14:40:00.755Z
Covid 6/17: One Last Scare 2021-06-17T18:40:01.502Z
The Apprentice Thread 2021-06-17T13:10:01.175Z
Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem 2021-06-10T13:10:00.795Z
Covid 6/3: No News is Good News 2021-06-03T16:50:01.085Z
Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown 2021-05-27T12:30:02.360Z
Covid 5/20: The Great Unmasking 2021-05-21T00:30:01.228Z
New Magic Post: The Pro Tour Was Magic 2021-05-17T16:40:00.807Z
Covid 5/13: Moving On 2021-05-13T14:30:01.849Z
Covid 5/6: Vaccine Patent Suspension 2021-05-06T20:20:00.639Z
Covid 4/29: Vaccination Slowdown 2021-04-29T13:50:01.010Z
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold 2021-04-27T00:40:01.309Z
Spoiler-Free Reviews: Monster Slayers, Dream Quest and Loop Hero 2021-04-26T15:00:01.515Z
Covid 4/22: Crisis in India 2021-04-22T13:40:01.676Z
Covid 4/15: Are We Seriously Doing This Again 2021-04-15T13:00:01.288Z

Comments

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Post #3 · 2021-12-02T19:39:15.330Z · LW · GW

I disagree that the derived statement is unreasonable. I also disagree that it's obviously saying something other than what it literally says. 

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #2 · 2021-12-01T14:53:51.333Z · LW · GW

Nice. Working on getting more. Hopefully it will get more volume once it gets more eyes.

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #2 · 2021-12-01T01:05:02.047Z · LW · GW

Fair. Presume 80% for it to become majority rather than fully take over, somewhat less to go full.

BTW I did take a bet on this for $100 at 50% odds in another comment thread (operationalized as Omicron bigger than delta by end of May.)

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #2 · 2021-11-29T23:57:25.739Z · LW · GW

Remarkable degree of awareness there. I appreciate it.

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over · 2021-11-29T14:31:17.527Z · LW · GW

Reasonable. In the realm of such bets we're not that far apart. I'd take a bet at 50% (1:1) but there's no value to you there. I'm in process of reading new sources.

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over · 2021-11-28T00:55:02.348Z · LW · GW

66% by March 1 is very close to 70% eventually, and I noted my confidence level is low, but I will consider if I become more confident within the window. Thank you for the offer, in any case.

What is your fair? 50%? 30%?

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over · 2021-11-26T23:07:52.358Z · LW · GW

If they had promoted restrictions I'd have bought supplies.

It's more like, oh, there's enough people trying to do something useful that they're warning them not to, oh no. But also I did notice I shouldn't have updated!

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over · 2021-11-26T22:12:44.630Z · LW · GW

Presumably we still should have shifted everything over anyway, it's a freeroll that can only help?

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over · 2021-11-26T22:11:43.007Z · LW · GW

Yes. So close.

Comment by Zvi on Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over · 2021-11-26T22:11:00.436Z · LW · GW

I have to assume the 11 day delay is unusual, or even that perhaps that case didn't actually come from Egypt. If it usually took 11 days then there's no way it grows this fast (and if it still does, seriously, it's time to give up.)

Comment by Zvi on Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update · 2021-11-25T12:00:19.958Z · LW · GW

Note: I was moving quickly, and did the wrong calculation for the lower bound earlier. It is now 5k rather than 20k. 

Comment by Zvi on Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update · 2021-11-25T11:55:40.250Z · LW · GW

Um, I was assuming everyone would understand that this wasn't correct? Are we so fargone I can't do this?

Comment by Zvi on Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update · 2021-11-24T21:31:31.624Z · LW · GW

Pretty sure I directly addressed this, as did Eliezer in his thread (and there's at least one more explanation I didn't mention, which is that you can target the vulnerable over time instead of giving it to everyone if you're short). Also pretty sure this isn't true even if you accept the premise.

Comment by Zvi on Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update · 2021-11-24T21:30:10.777Z · LW · GW

I asked mods (well, emailed Oliver about) how to make the footnotes work right - they're good on Substack but broken in WP and LW then imports from WP. Growing pains of switching to the SS editor, whereas the WP editor didn't have footnotes worth using at all. 

Comment by Zvi on Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal · 2021-11-21T12:11:20.494Z · LW · GW
  1. This requires (A) Covid-19 will remain a serious threat long enough for (B) kids to grow up while Covid-19 is still in a form where 'natural immunity' would remain importantly helpful but (C) the vaccine held up long enough that they didn't get infected, if they do get infected they're better off being vaccinated first and (D) the vaccine protection then after that goes away. That seems like an insane parlay.
  2. The risks of the vaccine remain trivial by comparison even for children.
  3. The social benefits of child vaccinations, including letting people act less crazy both in general and around this particular child, are large. 
Comment by Zvi on Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal · 2021-11-20T00:11:25.872Z · LW · GW

Sadly I do think that this needs to be a costly signal.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal · 2021-11-19T12:39:29.335Z · LW · GW

Part of it is Choices are bad, especially false ones. You're making people pretend you're not forcing them to do it, which makes them feel bad about choosing to do it and agonize about the 'decisions' being made and what's been lost.

Part of it is legitimate vs. illegitimate authority, and clarity of what is going on. You're not taking ownership and responsibility, and you're gaslighting everyone about what's going on, and also you're telling everyone implicitly that you lack the power to demand vaccinations (else why not demand them?) but you're turning around and demanding them anyway by other convoluted means.

E.g. if you want to draft all the people into the army (e.g. you're like Switzerland and need everyone to be ready to fight at all times), actually doing a draft means you're kidnapping and enslaving them and forcing them to fight, but at least you're owning that you're doing that. If you make it impossible for those without military service to hold a job or go outside, you're gaslighting those people and it's not like you're not kidnapping and enslaving them and forcing them to fight - only a very small portion of people can afford to accept those consequences. 

Comment by Zvi on Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal · 2021-11-19T12:33:08.241Z · LW · GW

Thanks! It's useful to know where concretely people are getting value out of the posts, and also it's nice to hear. 

I don't think a norm of more often saying 'here's why I did my strong upvote/downvote' or otherwise treating karma as super important is a good idea (e.g. I disagree with Duncan rather strongly but haven't had the bandwidth to respond properly) but specific feedback on what matters is great.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal · 2021-11-18T17:59:51.675Z · LW · GW

Link is here: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/covid-1118-paxlovid-remains-illegal

Has been fixed in the post.

Comment by Zvi on Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer · 2021-11-15T18:04:19.813Z · LW · GW

I want to be clear that my inside view is based on less knowledge and less time thinking carefully, and thus has less and less accurate gears, than I would like or than I expect to be true of many others' here's models (e.g. Eliezer). 

Unpacking my reasoning fully isn't something I can do in a reply, but if I had to say a few more words, I'd say it's related to the idea that the AGI will use qualitatively different methods and reasoning, and not thinking that current methods can get there, and that we're getting our progress out of figuring out how to do more and more things without thinking in this sense, rather than learning how to think in this sense, and also finding out that a lot more of what humans do all day doesn't require thinking - I felt like GPT-3 taught me a lot about humans and how much they're on autopilot and how they still get along fine, and I went through an arc where it seemed curious, then scary, then less scary on this front. 

I'm emphasizing that this is intuition pumping my inside view, rather than things I endorse or think should persuade anyone, and my focus very much was elsewhere.

Echo the other reply that Turing complete seems like a not-relevant test.

Comment by Zvi on Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer · 2021-11-15T17:56:38.774Z · LW · GW

On slowing down, I'd say strong inside view agreement, I don't see a way either, not without something far more universal. There's too many next competitors. Could have been included, probably excluded due to seeming like it followed from other points and was thus too obvious.

On the likelihood of backfire, strong inside view agreement. Not sure why that point didn't make it into the post, but consider this an unofficial extra point (43?), of something like (paraphrase, attempt 1) "Making the public broadly aware of and afraid of these scenarios is likely to backfire and result in counterproductive action."

Comment by Zvi on Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer · 2021-11-15T16:52:37.705Z · LW · GW

Right, so it didn't come completely out of nowhere, but it still seems uncharitable at best to go from 'mostly fake or pointless or predictable' where mostly is clearly modifying the collective OR statement, to 'almost everyone else is faking it.' 

EDIT: Looks like there's now a comment apologizing for, among other things, exactly this change.  

Comment by Zvi on An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking at the Port of Long Beach · 2021-11-13T10:29:31.273Z · LW · GW

Flagging here my having-slept-on-it update policy going forward for this particular post:

  1. If there's a factual error anywhere, or a grammar/typo problem, I will continue to fix this particular post. If I say X happened and it didn't, I should fix it, and I should fix technical mistakes.
  2. If there's an impression problem, where it's felt this gives the impression that I'm claiming the change did more to solve the logjam than it did, or that we should be a certain level of excited, or something similar, nope, not going to change this post further for that, this is as far as I'm willing to go. 
  3. If there's additional new information that seems relevant, beyond what I added this time, that's a thing to be fixed with additional posts, and if they get written I will modify this particular post to link to those new posts, but not to directly reflect new information, again unless it causes a factual error as per #1. 

Flagging the update policy I have in general as well:

  1. If the post is timeless - as in, being used permanently as a link by myself or others on a regular basis, and continuing to get readers, or about to go into the yearly review, or something - and there's a factual error, I'll fix it.
  2. If the post isn't timeless - it's a weekly Covid post, or didn't become much of a thing, or whatever - then I'll fix errors within about a week, and otherwise consider myself free to not worry about it and move on, to avoid creating an undue burden.
  3. Anything beyond fixing factual errors in posts that don't get special attention/hits is entirely optional and requires exceptional circumstances for that to change. Typos and grammar errors and such will be fixed when it seems worth it, otherwise not.
Comment by Zvi on Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming · 2021-11-13T10:11:57.741Z · LW · GW

Looks like they managed to get a 97% vaccination rate, but found that not good enough, so they abandoned the mandate and permanently sacrificed everyone's credibility but especially their own, whereas places without a mandate usually end up far lower. So the news here is that Quebec defected and burned the commons?

Comment by Zvi on An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking at the Port of Long Beach · 2021-11-12T23:35:59.799Z · LW · GW

After talking to Elizabeth, and based on new information I've learned since this was posted, I've updated the OP to reflect what we've learned and avoid giving anyone the impression this change had a bigger impact than I believe that it did. The central points remain unchanged.

There were enough different changes that I'd like mods to reimport to ensure both copies reflect the same changes. 

Comment by Zvi on Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming · 2021-11-12T12:52:10.607Z · LW · GW

On the effectiveness question, I think 64% and 97% are hugely different numbers - they are an order of magnitude difference in remaining risk. So a CI that wide to me very much screams not enough data in terms of deciding how to act. I expect tons of expensive prevention efforts to be justified by that 64% number, that would be much harder to justify if we could be confident in 89%, and if it was known to be 97% would be much harder still.

On treatment versus prophylaxis, yes I understand that, but treatment and prophylaxis can be either complements or substitutes depending on the situation - if you have a good enough treatment it makes it less important to do prophylaxis (and vice versa). 

Comment by Zvi on Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming · 2021-11-12T12:49:15.612Z · LW · GW

I meant to edit it to note that I was skipping the section, or remove the section, and forgot to do so.

Comment by Zvi on Substack Ho? · 2021-11-10T17:02:27.158Z · LW · GW

I think you can self-host WP in a pinch as well. I've been chatting with someone from WP trying to better understand what it is offering. It does seem like I'm missing a lot of simple knowledge of how to use WP better, and it's possible that WP is 'good enough' if things were explained properly, and then there's a bunch of deep functionality and customization potentially hidden. Yet that doesn't do any good if I don't use it. 

Comment by Zvi on Substack Ho? · 2021-11-10T15:34:47.555Z · LW · GW

Strong upvoting after our conversation so more people see it. Raymond made a strong case, I'm seriously considering it and would like everyone else's take on Ghost, good or bad. Getting the experiences of others who've used it, and can verify that it works and can be trusted (or not, which would be even more useful if true!), would be very helpful.

The basic downside versus Substack is lack of Substack's discovery, such as it is, not sure of magnitude of that, and that people won't be used to it and won't have already entered CC info, which will hurt revenue some (but again, how much? Anyone have estimates?) and the start-up costs would be more annoying. 

In exchange you get full customization, open source that can easily be self-hosted in a pinch, lower costs given expected size of the audience, better analytics, better improvement in feature sets over time given track records, etc. But I'd have to do at least some work to get that (e.g. you need to add a comment section on your own). 

Comment by Zvi on Substack Ho? · 2021-11-07T22:02:42.499Z · LW · GW

Thank you for being up front. My basic answer is that I'm vaguely aware Ghost exists, and I'd be open to a pitch/discussion to try and convince me it's superior to Substack or Wordpress, although it would be an uphill battle. If there's human support willing to make the migration and setup easy and help me figure out how to do things, then... maybe? Could set up a call to discuss.

Comment by Zvi on Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions · 2021-11-04T11:36:45.008Z · LW · GW

I'm not worried about you administering the bounty, that seems fine and good and I'd trust you to honestly evaluate the bet at the size range I'd expect it to be. If it was big enough to be 'real money' we'd need to use better procedures but I'm assuming that's not the case here.

I'd also note that if I was provided a 'bounty fund' I would at least experiment with using it more generally. Might be a good idea.

If you propose a bet, then I might or might not accept depending on odds, size and terms, I don't feel it is necessary but have no objection.

There are two distinct questions here where you're questioning things, as I understand you. 

  1. You are questioning whether X -> Y, where X = Tweetstorm/Ryan and Y = change in LB stacking rule. We have the timing, and we have the explicit word of the person who made the change. Both seem like strong evidence to me. We also have that the storm was unique in the ways I've described, and in ways that reflect a desire to cut the enemy that seems unmistakable and rare to me. Yes, it is possible that it wasn't causal, but this seems heroic and unlikely. It either has to be a coincidence followed by a decision to lie, or the Tweetstorm was timed to give cover to a decision already made. I don't know what evidence you'd gather here or what bet you'd want to make, but this seems very much like an isolated demand for rigor to me if it's more than being curious to explore more to verify/expand the model, which seems fine.
  2. You are questioning Y -> Z, where Y = stacking rule and Z = conditions at the port. Here I'm not sure how far apart we are. I'm saying that as long as (1 above) Ryan was causal in making the change, (2) the stacking rule improved conditions in the port somewhat with no downsides that matter, that's enough for me to think of this as a template. It's a bottleneck situation, so improving one bottleneck might or might not have a huge impact on the condition of the port, and it was rapidly getting worse (from all reports I know about) before the change. The scale of cost of effort versus impact of port conditions is many zeroes. And to me what matters is the template working to execute a good idea - if it didn't 'save the economy' then that's fine, never really thought this alone did it. Especially when it was only at LB and not LA! Which loses us more than half the effect. Also, my mechanism for why this matters largely involves 'momentum builds towards both more physical actions to improve the ports, and more efforts to discover, communicate, amplify and use information, models and solutions for physical problems and places where we can improve' and for that purpose the threshold of actual effect here is definitely cleared by a moderate improvement.    
  3. Others have raised cruxes regarding whether trying to create or use information sharing and attention direction vectors is a good idea for strategic reasons, I don't know if you share this concern or not but it's a distinct discussion and would require additional posts to fully address. Don't think this could be settled by more data gathering, it's a different kind of thing.
  4. Something else?

Do I want to know magnitude of effect? Of course, and I am happy that you're considering sending out a bounty to find out. I'd also love better access to better metrics on what's going on at the ports in general even if we can't create change. 

Anyway, I offer to escalate to video call when timing allows, if that's something you're interested in. 

Comment by Zvi on Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions · 2021-11-03T20:58:00.878Z · LW · GW

It's what's called a hold-up problem. LA+LB together are 40% of shipping, so they have a ton of pricing power even medium-term, and short-term they can effectively take more than all of your profits because the alternative is even worse. The cities could extract a substantial percentage of the value of international shipping, but the deadweight loss triangle involved would be gigantic, and the cost pass-through might destabilize the entire economy if they got too aggressive. Yes, you want to do enough of this to allocate via price, but there's the temptation to do far more than that in order to transfer wealth. 

If the money is being used to improve the port, then I think I explicitly note that I'm fine with that, and I'm noting that I mostly disagree with Ryan on the fees being bad - I simply want the fees not to create incentives for the city that go against the public good. 

If it was a privately owned port, it would be a different situation in many ways, and hopefully long term enterprise value would keep the port doing mostly the right things if it was truly private (and also it would have been made much more efficient by now and be implementing all these solutions!) but anything that big with this kind of leverage that was privately owned in 2021 is effectively not so private. 

Comment by Zvi on Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions · 2021-11-03T12:16:16.491Z · LW · GW

To address the question of the backlog, if I wasn't clear, I too was unable to find good evidence of the number of ships waiting and how that changed from day to day. I did see claims it had improved somewhat but it's all confused. 

I tried to make it clear here that I am confident it was, in that previous comment's terms, 'a first step' and did at least some good, but that I'm not confident on magnitude. Which, as again I tried to say, I still think is good enough.

Comment by Zvi on Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions · 2021-11-03T11:26:19.494Z · LW · GW

If I gave the impression that I don't support additional learning and investigation then I apologize. That was most certainly not my intention. It was more that my default model of what happens is 'some analysis then basically nothing' and that seems like the most likely failure mode in worlds where making this work is feasible.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-11-01T17:25:38.656Z · LW · GW

Don't worry about the vase, my blog's name.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-10-29T13:49:23.621Z · LW · GW

I acknowledge you are 'simply asking questions' and want to do the math calculation. What I'm saying is that a live example of seriously claiming (2) is sufficient to show that we have to worry about an attempt to actually implement it. If Public Health people start considering the 'costs and benefits' of an intervention - especially one that could be framed as a default right now - that makes lives worse in exchange for less disease, you've already lost, and the idea that costs of mask wearing are sufficiently low that we need to be doing math is the road to that conclusion. 

Whereas if you'd asked this question in 2019 and treated it as a serious possibility that the math could come out either way, I'd have been pretty baffled.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-10-29T01:46:12.782Z · LW · GW

I don't know anyone who did either of those things to my knowledge, no. 

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-10-29T01:44:08.230Z · LW · GW

None of those possibilities were things I hadn't considered, nor do they explain the data. I continue to not understand.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-10-29T01:42:23.190Z · LW · GW

This sounds exactly like you're continuing to say that we should consider permanently forcing children to mask, so I'm confused why it's not a good example.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-10-29T01:40:59.640Z · LW · GW

Removed (btw: If you're giving me a comment like this, best place is at DWATV, no need to post it twice). 

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-10-29T01:40:24.449Z · LW · GW

You're not preaching, you're noticing you are confused. Which is good. 

I am not confused here, because the media is running stories about kids ending up in the ICU and most people don't think about base rates, so it's unsurprising that many parents think like this. Also see satanic child abuse cults, or stranger danger, or poisoned Halloween candy, etc etc. 

Comment by Zvi on An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking at the Port of Long Beach · 2021-10-28T16:36:12.592Z · LW · GW

It does seem like problems need to at least approach the level of 'this is worth solving for me simply to get my private benefits' in order to get solved, but I also think that the fruit is often low hanging enough that this is fine?

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory · 2021-10-28T15:58:19.123Z · LW · GW

My presumption is that the reasons people liked Dune Part 1 require things that I have not experienced. So I hope to retroactively change my opinion after Part 2. But for now, that's my reaction, I'm confused why this is a thing.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta · 2021-10-25T14:53:39.044Z · LW · GW

This feels like the kind of thing I could do more of if it were high value, in other contexts, but it requires a lot of time. Certainly would be happy to do it paid. 

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta · 2021-10-25T14:51:57.991Z · LW · GW

There's a ton of stuff here so I can't take time to properly respond to it all, but I did want to note (I've talked about this before) my intuition pump around the data suppression question, and why I think it's hugely unlikely there are much more common serious side effects.

Which is that there are tons of people both pro and anti vaccine who are actively on the prowl for such effects. If we catch even a whiff of anything, no matter how statistically irrelevant, it endangers the ability to use the vaccines at all - see J&J, and see the Moderna suspensions, over basically nothing in both cases. Thus, the Responsible Authorities are keeping eyes peeled looking for non-existent problems, and the anti-vax crowd is of course looking for any problems, and reporters know it's a good story, and a lot of people would report hearing about such things especially if they knew multiple cases, etc etc. 

It's not that I trust it because the people in charge are saying so, it's because my model says if the problems existed we would know. Rogan is the first I've heard who reported a personal pattern or other pattern of serious (not short term you feel bad) symptoms from the vaccines. E.g. I don't know of anyone I know who knows anyone who had a non-short-term side effect of vaccination (or even thinks they did), whereas my personal trainer from pre-Covid is in terrible long term condition from Long Covid, etc. And the only other sources claiming to know such folks in multiples are, at best, 'less credible than Rogan.' 

Basically, when you have a huge anti-vax (not merely anti-mandate) faction, highly motivated to find things, you need to compare what evidence is found to what evidence you expect. And from Rogan's particular perspective, even if this is mostly a timing coincidence, that evidence looks suspicious, but from yours and mine, it doesn't (unless you have personal data I don't know, if I missed it I apologize). 

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta · 2021-10-25T14:41:46.885Z · LW · GW

Discussion in question was about whether to get vaccinated rather than whether to mandate vaccination. 

Also, we effectively totally mandate treatments all the time, the force of 'doctor insists you do this' in many spots is 'I'll physically do it without asking permission' and in many others it's 'we will refuse you any other care until you do this.' In ways I find pretty terrible, mind you, but worth noting this.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/7: Steady as She Goes · 2021-10-07T20:06:13.572Z · LW · GW

Wow, thank you for pointing me at this. That's... a pretty crazy error. It's sufficiently bad that I feel like it's an error that I didn't catch it, rather than mostly being on them. Damn.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/7: Steady as She Goes · 2021-10-07T20:05:10.947Z · LW · GW

Right, I get that, but this is saying that with the death robots you fend off the attack 97% of the time, but without the death robots you also fend off the attack 97% of the time, so there were no cases where not having the death robots ready to go mattered, you always either had enough time without the robots OR the robots wouldn't have been enough anyway, and I'm kinda huh?

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/7: Steady as She Goes · 2021-10-07T20:03:05.165Z · LW · GW

Civilization.

Comment by Zvi on Covid 10/7: Steady as She Goes · 2021-10-07T20:02:28.285Z · LW · GW

I think these people are insane - or rather, the decision is insane and so are the incentives that are in place around such decisions. And having done this will doubtless backfire in various ways.