Posts

OMMC Announces RIP 2024-04-01T23:20:00.433Z
Safetywashing 2022-07-01T11:56:33.495Z
Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms 2020-08-12T07:47:13.726Z
At what point should CFAR stop holding workshops due to COVID-19? 2020-02-25T09:59:17.910Z
CFAR: Progress Report & Future Plans 2019-12-19T06:19:58.948Z
Why are the people who could be doing safety research, but aren’t, doing something else? 2019-08-29T08:51:33.219Z
adam_scholl's Shortform 2019-08-12T00:53:37.221Z

Comments

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Paul Christiano named as US AI Safety Institute Head of AI Safety · 2024-04-17T08:08:43.246Z · LW · GW

I agree metrology is cool! But I think units are mostly helpful for engineering insofar as they reflect fundamental laws of nature—see e.g. the metric units—and we don't have those yet for AI. Until we do, I expect attempts to define them will be vague, high-level descriptions more than deep scientific understanding.

(And I think the former approach has a terrible track record, at least when used to define units of risk or controllability—e.g. BSL levels, which have failed so consistently and catastrophically they've induced an EA cause area, and which for some reason AI labs are starting to emulate).

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Performance · 2024-03-06T23:37:02.018Z · LW · GW

I assumed "anyone" was meant to include OpenAI—do you interpret it as just describing novel entrants? If so I agree that wouldn't be contradictory, but it seems like a strange interpretation to me in the context of a pitch deck asking investors for a billion dollars.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Performance · 2024-03-06T22:25:12.277Z · LW · GW

I agree it's common for startups to somewhat oversell their products to investors, but I think it goes far beyond "somewhat"—maybe even beyond the bar for criminal fraud, though I'm not sure—to tell investors you're aiming to soon get "too far ahead for anyone to catch up in subsequent cycles," if your actual plan is to avoid getting meaningfully ahead at all.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Performance · 2024-03-06T21:05:12.822Z · LW · GW

"Diverting money" strikes me as the wrong frame here. Partly because I doubt this actually was the consequence—i.e., I doubt OpenAI etc. had a meaningfully harder time raising capital because of Anthropic's raise—but also because it leaves out the part where this purported desirable consequence was achieved via (what seems to me like) straightforward deception!

If indeed Dario told investors he hoped to obtain an insurmountable lead soon, while telling Dustin and others that he was committed to avoid gaining any meaningful lead, then it sure seems like one of those claims was a lie. And by my ethical lights, this seems like a horribly unethical thing to lie about, regardless of whether it somehow caused OpenAI to have less money.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Jimrandomh's Shortform · 2024-03-06T13:55:26.142Z · LW · GW

Huh, I've also noticed a larger effect from indoors/outdoors than seems reflected by CO2 monitors, and that I seem smarter when it's windy, but I never thought of this hypothesis; it's interesting, thanks.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Performance · 2024-03-05T19:06:39.456Z · LW · GW

Yeah, seems plausible; but either way it seems worth noting that Dario left Dustin, Evan and Anthropic's investors with quite different impressions here.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Performance · 2024-03-05T12:41:53.858Z · LW · GW

It seems Dario left Dustin Moskovitz with a different impression—that Anthropic had a policy/commitment to not meaningfully advance the frontier:

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Safetywashing · 2024-01-14T01:51:33.574Z · LW · GW

Interesting, I checked LW/Google for the keyword before writing and didn't see much, but maybe I missed it; it does seem like a fairly natural riff, e.g. someone wrote a similar post on EA forum a few months later.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on OpenAI: Facts from a Weekend · 2023-11-23T22:14:14.002Z · LW · GW

I can imagine it being the case that their ability to reveal this information is their main source of leverage (over e.g. who replaces them on the board).

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My thoughts on the social response to AI risk · 2023-11-02T22:40:28.801Z · LW · GW

I do have substantial credence (~15%?) on AGI being built by hobbyists/small teams. I definitely think it's more likely to be built by huge teams with huge computers, like most recent advances. But my guess is that physics permits vastly more algorithmic efficiency than we've discovered, and it seems pretty plausible to me—especially in worlds with longer timelines—that some small group might discover enough of it in time.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My thoughts on the social response to AI risk · 2023-11-02T21:30:41.487Z · LW · GW

Nonetheless, I acknowledge that my disagreement with these proposals often comes down to a more fundamental disagreement about the difficulty of alignment, rather than any beliefs about the social response to AI risk.

My guess is that this disagreement (about the difficulty of alignment) also mostly explains the disagreement about humanity’s relative attentiveness/competence. If the recent regulatory moves seem encouraging to you, I can see how that would seem like counterevidence to the claim that governments are unlikely to help much with AI risk.

But personally it doesn’t seem like much counterevidence, because the recent moves haven’t seemed very encouraging. They’ve struck me as slightly encouraging, insofar as they’ve caused me to update slightly upwards that governments might eventually coordinate to entirely halt AI development. But absent the sort of scientific understanding we typically have when deploying high-risk engineering projects—where e.g., we can answer at least most of the basic questions about how the systems work, and generally understand how to predict in advance what will happen if we do various things, etc.—little short of a Stop is going to reduce my alarm much.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on AI as a science, and three obstacles to alignment strategies · 2023-10-29T09:01:37.116Z · LW · GW

AI used to be a science. In the old days (back when AI didn't work very well), people were attempting to develop a working theory of cognition.

Those scientists didn’t succeed, and those days are behind us.

I claim many of them did succeed, for example:

  • George Boole invented boolean algebra in order to establish (part of) a working theory of cognition—the book where he introduces it is titled "An Investigation of the Laws of Thought,” and his stated aim was largely to help explain how minds work.[1]
  • Ramón y Cajal discovered neurons in the course of trying to better understand cognition.[2]
  • Turing described his research as aimed at figuring out what intelligence is, what it would mean for something to “think,” etc.[3]
  • Shannon didn’t frame his work this way quite as explicitly, but information theory is useful because it characterizes constraints on the transmission of thoughts/cognition between people, and I think he was clearly generally interested in figuring out what was up with agents/minds—e.g., he spent time trying to design machines to navigate mazes, repair themselves, replicate, etc.
  • Geoffrey Hinton initially became interested in neural networks because he was trying to figure out how brains worked.

Not all of these scientists thought of themselves as working on AI, of course, but I do think many of the key discoveries which make modern AI possible—boolean algebra, neurons, computers, information theory, neural networks—were developed by people trying to develop theories of cognition.

  1. ^

     The opening paragraph of Boole’s book:  "The design of the following treatise is to investigate the fundamental laws of those operations of the mind by which reasoning is performed; to give expression to them in the symbolical language of a Calculus, and upon this foundation to establish the science of Logic and construct its method; to make that method itself the basis of a general method for the application of the mathematical doctrine of Probabilities; and, finally, to collect from the various elements of truth brought to view in the course of these inquiries some probable intimations concerning the nature and constitution of the human mind."

  2. ^

     From Cajal’s autobiography:  "... the problem attracted us irresistibly. We saw that an exact knowledge of the structure of the brain was of supreme interest for the building up of a rational psychology. To know the brain, we said, is equivalent to ascertaining the material course of thought and will, to discovering the intimate history of life in its perpetual duel with external forces; a history summarized, and in a way engraved in the defensive neuronal coordinations of the reflex, of instinct, and of the association of ideas" (305).

  3. ^

     The opening paragraph of Turing’s paper, Computing Machinery and Intelligence:  "I propose to consider the question, 'Can machines think?' This should begin with definitions of the meaning of the terms 'machine 'and 'think'. The definitions might be framed so as to reflect so far as possible the normal use of the words, but this attitude is dangerous. If the meaning of the words 'machine' and 'think 'are to be found by examining how they are commonly used it is difficult to escape the conclusion that the meaning and the answer to the question, 'Can machines think?' is to be sought in a statistical survey such as a Gallup poll. But this is absurd. Instead of attempting such a definition I shall replace the question by another, which is closely related to it and is expressed in relatively unambiguous words."

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Open Thread – Autumn 2023 · 2023-10-24T09:38:19.014Z · LW · GW

But it's not just language any longer either, with image inputs, etc... all else equal I'd prefer a name that emphasized how little we understand how they work ("model" seems to me to connote the opposite), but I don't have any great suggestions.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Feedbackloop-first Rationality · 2023-08-11T05:51:09.788Z · LW · GW

I just meant that Faraday's research strikes me as counterevidence for the claim I was making—he had excellent feedback loops, yet also seems to me to have had excellent pre-paradigmatic research taste/next-question-generating skill of the sort my prior suggests generally trades off against strong focus on quickly-checkable claims. So maybe my prior is missing something!

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Feedbackloop-first Rationality · 2023-08-10T22:34:28.527Z · LW · GW

Yeah, my impression is similarly that focus on feedback loops is closer to "the core thing that's gone wrong so far with alignment research," than to "the core thing that's been missing." I wouldn't normally put it this way, since I think many types of feedback loops are great, and since obviously in the end alignment research is useless unless it helps us better engineer AI systems in the actual territory, etc. 

(And also because some examples of focus on tight feedback loops, like Faraday's research, strike me as exceedingly excellent, although I haven't really figured out yet why his work seems so much closer to the spirit we need than e.g. thinking physics problems).

Like, all else equal, it clearly seems better to have better empirical feedback; I think my objection is mostly that in practice, focus on this seems to lead people to premature formalization, or to otherwise constraining their lines of inquiry to those whose steps are easy to explain/justify along the way.

Another way to put this: most examples I've seen of people trying to practice attending to tight feedback have involved them focusing on trivial problems, like simple video games or toy already-solved science problems, and I think this isn't a coincidence. So while I share your sense Raemon that transfer learning seems possible here, my guess is that this sort of practice mostly transfers within the domain of other trivial problems, where solutions (or at least methods for locating solutions) are already known, and hence where it's easy to verify you're making progress along the way.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Exposure to Lizardman is Lethal · 2023-04-01T06:08:07.048Z · LW · GW

I've been trying to spend a bit more time voting in response to this, to try to help keep thread quality high; at least for now, the size of the influx strikes me as low enough that a few long-time users doing this might help a bunch.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Is InstructGPT Following Instructions in Other Languages Surprising? · 2023-02-20T06:03:12.653Z · LW · GW

I agree we don't really understand anything in LLMs at this level of detail, but I liked Jan highlighting this confusion anyway, since I think it's useful to promote particular weird behaviors to attention. I would be quite thrilled if more people got nerd sniped on trying to explain such things!

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Bing Chat is blatantly, aggressively misaligned · 2023-02-17T00:32:41.009Z · LW · GW

John, it seems totally plausible to me that these examples do just reflect something like “hallucination,” in the sense you describe. But I feel nervous about assuming that! I know of no principled way to distinguish “hallucination” from more goal-oriented thinking or planning, and my impression is that nobody else does either.

I think it’s generally unwise to assume LLM output reflects its internal computation in a naively comprehensible way; it usually doesn’t, so I think it’s a sane prior to suspect it doesn't here, either. But at our current level of understanding of the internal computation happening in these models, I feel wary of confident-seeming assertions that they're well-described in any particular way—e.g., as "hallucinations," which I think is far from a well-defined concept, and which I don't have much confidence carves reality at its joints—much less that they're not dangerous.

So while I would personally bet fairly strongly against the explicit threats produced by Bing being meaningfully reflective of threatening intent, it seems quite overconfident to me to suggest they don’t “at all imply” it! From my perspective, they obviously imply it, even if that's not my lead hypothesis for what's going on.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Why Are Bacteria So Simple? · 2023-02-06T19:10:19.284Z · LW · GW

If simple outcompetes complex, wouldn't we expect to see more prokaryotic DNA in the biosphere? Whereas in fact we see 2-3x as much eukaryotic DNA, depending on how you count—hardly a small niche!

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Can we efficiently distinguish different mechanisms? · 2023-01-12T10:19:18.937Z · LW · GW

I also found the writing way clearer than usual, which I appreciate - it made the post much easier for me to engage with.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Would it be good or bad for the US military to get involved in AI risk? · 2023-01-02T03:56:02.536Z · LW · GW

As I understand it, the recent US semiconductor policy updates—e.g., CHIPS Act, export controls—are unusually extreme, which does seem consistent with the hypothesis that they're starting to take some AI-related threats more seriously. But my guess is that they're mostly worried about more mundane/routine impacts on economic and military affairs, etc., rather than about this being the most significant event since the big bang; perhaps naively, I suspect we'd see more obvious signs if they were worried about the latter, a la physics departments clearing out during the Manhattan Project.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Let’s think about slowing down AI · 2022-12-27T18:56:47.580Z · LW · GW

Critch, I agree it’s easy for most people to understand the case for AI being risky. I think the core argument for concern—that it seems plausibly unsafe to build something far smarter than us—is simple and intuitive, and personally, that simple argument in fact motivates a plurality of my concern. That said:

  • I think it often takes weirder, less intuitive arguments to address many common objections—e.g., that this seems unlikely to happen within our lifetimes, that intelligence far superior to ours doesn’t even seem possible, that we’re safe because software can’t affect physical reality, that this risk doesn’t seem more pressing than other risks, that alignment seems easy to solve if we just x, etc.
  • It’s also remarkably easy to convince many people that aliens visit Earth on a regular basis, that the theory of evolution via natural selection is bunk, that lottery tickets are worth buying, etc. So while I definitely think some who engage with these arguments come away having good reason to believe the threat is likely, for values of “good” and “believe” and “likely” at least roughly similar those common around here, I suspect most update something more like their professed belief-in-belief, than their real expectations—and that even many who do update their real expectations do so via symmetric arguments that leave them with poor models of the threat.

These factors make me nervous about strategies that rely heavily on convincing everyday people, or people in government, to care about AI risk, for reasons I don’t think are well described as “systematically discounting their opinions/agency.” Personally, I’ve engaged a lot with people working in various corners of politics and government, and decently much with academics, and I respect and admire many of them, including in ways I rarely admire rationalists or EA’s.

(For example, by my lights, the best ops teams in government are much more competent than the best ops teams around here; the best policy wonks, lawyers, and economists are genuinely really quite smart, and have domain expertise few R/EA’s have without which it’s hard to cause many sorts of plausibly-relevant societal change; perhaps most spicily, I think academics affiliated with the Santa Fe Institute have probably made around as much progress on the alignment problem so far as alignment researchers, without even trying to, and despite being (imo) deeply epistemically confused in a variety of relevant ways).

But there are also a number of respects in which I think rationalists and EA’s tend to far outperform any other group I’m aware of—for example, in having beliefs that actually reflect their expectations, trying seriously to make sure those beliefs are true, being open to changing their mind, thinking probabilistically, “actually trying” to achieve their goals as a behavior distinct from “trying their best,” etc. My bullishness about these traits is why e.g. I live and work around here, and read this website.

And on the whole, I am bullish about this culture. But it’s mostly the relative scarcity of these and similar traits in particular, not my overall level of enthusiasm or respect for other groups, that causes me to worry they wouldn’t take helpful actions if persuaded of AI risk.

My impression is that it’s unusually difficult to figure out how to take actions that reduce AI risk without substantial epistemic skill of a sort people sometimes have around here, but only rarely have elsewhere. On my models, this is mostly because:

  • There are many more ways to make the situation worse than better;
  • A number of key considerations are super weird and/or terrifying, such that it's unusually hard to reason well about them;
  • It seems easier for people to grok the potential importance of transformative AI, than the potential danger.

My strong prior is that, to accomplish large-scale societal change, you nearly always need to collaborate with people who disagree with you, even about critical points. And I’m sympathetic to the view that this is true here, too; I think some of it probably is. But I think the above features make this more fraught than usual, in a way that makes it easy for people who grok the (simpler) core argument for concern, but not some of the (typically more complex) ancillary considerations, to accidentally end up making the situation even worse.

Here are some examples of (what seem to me like) this happening:

  • The closest thing I'm aware of to an official US government position on AI risk is described in the 2016 and 2017 National Science and Technology Council reports. I haven't read all of them, but the parts I have read struck me as a strange mix of claims like “maybe this will be a big deal, like mobile phones were,” and “maybe this will be a big deal, in the sense that life on Earth will cease to exist.” And like, I can definitely imagine explanations for this that don't much involve the authors misjudging the situation—maybe their aim was more to survey experts than describe their own views, or maybe they were intentionally underplaying the threat for fear of starting an arms race, etc. But I think my lead hypothesis is more that the authors just didn’t actually, viscerally consider that the sentences they were writing might be true, in the sense of describing a reality they might soon inhabit.
    • I think rationalists and EA's tend to make this sort of mistake less often, since the “taking beliefs seriously”-style epistemic orientation common around here has the effect of making it easier for people to viscerally grasp that trend lines on graphs and so forth might actually reflect reality. (Like, one frame on EA as a whole, is “an exercise in avoiding the ‘learning about the death of a million feels like a statistic, not a tragedy’ error”). And this makes me at least somewhat more confident they won’t do dumb things upon becoming worried about AI risk, since without this epistemic skill, I think it’s easier to make critical errors like overestimating how much time we have, or underestimating the magnitude or strangeness of the threat.
  • As I understand it, OpenAI is named what it is because, at least at first, its founders literally hoped to make AGI open source. (Elon Musk: “I think the best defense against the misuse of AI is to empower as many people as possible to have AI. If everyone has AI powers, then there’s not any one person or a small set of individuals who can have AI superpower.”)
    • By my lights, there are unfortunately a lot of examples of rationalists and EA’s making big mistakes while attempting to reduce AI risk. But it’s at least... hard for me to imagine most of them making this one? Maybe I’m being insufficiently charitable here, but from my perspective, this just fails a really basic “wait, but then what happens next?” sanity check, that I think should have occurred to them more or less immediately, and that I suspect would have to most rationalists and EA's.
  • For me, the most striking aspect of the AI Impacts poll, was that all those ML researchers who reported thinking ML had a substantial chance of killing everyone, still research ML. I’m not sure why they do this; I’d guess some of them are convinced for some reason or another that working on it still makes sense, even given that. But my perhaps-uncharitable guess is that most of them actually don’t—that they don’t even have arguments which feel compelling to them that justify their actions, but that they for some reason press on anyway. This too strikes me as a sort of error R/EA’s are less likely to make.
    • (When Bostrom asked Geoffrey Hinton why he still worked on AI, if he thought governments would likely use it to terrorize people, he replied, "I could give you the usual arguments, but the truth is that the prospect of discovery is too sweet").
  • Sam Altman recently suggested, on the topic of whether to slow down AI, that “either we figure out how to make AGI go well or we wait for the asteroid to hit."
    • Maybe he was joking, or meant "asteroid" as a stand-in for all potentially civilization-ending threats, or something? But that's not my guess, because his follow-up comment is about how we need AGI to colonize space, which makes me suspect he actually considers asteroid risk in particular a relevant consideration for deciding when to deploy advanced AI. Which if true, strikes me as... well, more confused than any comment in this thread strikes me. And it seems like the kind of error that might, for example, cause someone to start an org with the hope of reducing existential risk, that mostly just ends up exacerbating  it.

Obviously our social network doesn't have a monopoly on good reasoning, intelligence, or competence, and lord knows it has plenty of its own pathologies. But as I understand it, most of the reason the rationality project exists is to help people reason more clearly about the strange, horrifying problem of AI risk. And I do think it has succeeded to some degree, such that empirically, people with less exposure to this epistemic environment far more often take actions which seem terribly harmful to me.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Common misconceptions about OpenAI · 2022-08-27T15:54:54.544Z · LW · GW

One comment in this thread compares the OP to Philip Morris’ claims to be working toward a “smoke-free future.” I think this analogy is overstated, in that I expect Philip Morris is being more intentionally deceptive than Jacob Hilton here. But I quite liked the comment anyway, because I share the sense that (regardless of Jacob's intention) the OP has an effect much like safetywashing, and I think the exaggerated satire helps make that easier to see.

The OP is framed as addressing common misconceptions about OpenAI, of which it lists five:

  1. OpenAI is not working on scalable alignment.
  2. Most people who were working on alignment at OpenAI left for Anthropic.
  3. OpenAI is a purely for-profit organization.
  4. OpenAI is not aware of the risks of race dynamics.
  5. OpenAI leadership is dismissive of existential risk from AI.

Of these, I think 1, 3, and 4 address positions that are held by basically no one. So by “debunking” much dumber versions of the claims people actually make, the post gives the impression of engaging with criticism, without actually meaningfully doing that. 2 at least addresses a real argument, but at least as I understand it, is quite misleading—while technically true, it seriously underplays the degree to which there was an exodus of key safety-conscious staff, who left because they felt OpenAI leadership was too reckless. So of these, only 5 strikes me as responding non-misleadingly to a real criticism people actually regularly make.

In response to the Philip Morris analogy, Jacob advised caution:

rhetoric like this seems like an excellent way to discourage OpenAI employees from ever engaging with the alignment community.

For many years, the criticism I heard of OpenAI in private was dramatically more vociferous than what I heard in public. I think much of this was because many people shared Jacob’s concern—if we say what we actually think about their strategy, maybe they’ll write us off as enemies, and not listen later when it really counts?

But I think this is starting to change. I’ve seen a lot more public criticism lately, which I think is probably at least in part because it’s become so obvious that the strategy of mincing our words hasn't worked. If they mostly ignore all but the very most optimistic alignment researchers now, why should we expect that will change later, as long as we keep being careful to avoid stating any of our offensive-sounding beliefs?

From talking with early employees and others, my impression is that OpenAI’s founding was incredibly reckless, in the sense that they rushed to deploy their org, before first taking much time to figure out how to ensure that went well. The founders' early comments about accident risk mostly strike me as so naive and unwise, that I find it hard to imagine they thought much at all about the existing alignment literature before deciding to charge ahead and create a new lab. Their initial plan—the one still baked into their name—would have been terribly dangerous if implemented, for reasons I’d think should have been immediately obvious to them had they stopped to think hard about accident risk at all.

And I think their actions since then have mostly been similarly reckless. When they got the scaling laws result, they published a paper about it, thereby popularizing the notion that “just making the black box bigger” might be a viable path to AGI. When they demoed this strategy with products like GPT-3, DALL-E, and CLIP, they described much of the architecture publicly, inspiring others to pursue similar research directions.

So in effect, as far as I can tell, they created a very productive “creating the x-risk” department, alongside a smaller “mitigating that risk” department—the presence of which I take the OP to describe as reassuring—staffed by a few of the most notably optimistic alignment researchers, many of whom left because even they felt too worried about OpenAI’s recklessness.

After all of that, why would we expect they’ll suddenly start being prudent and cautious when it comes time to deploy transformative tech? I don’t think we should.

My strong bet is that OpenAI leadership are good people, in the standard deontological sense, and I think that’s overwhelmingly the sense that should govern interpersonal interactions. I think they’re very likely trying hard, from their perspective, to make this go well, and I urge you, dear reader, not to be an asshole to them. Figuring out what makes sense is hard; doing things is hard; attempts to achieve goals often somehow accidentally end up causing the opposite thing to happen; nobody will want to work with you if small strategic updates might cause you to suddenly treat them totally differently.

But I think we are well past the point where it plausibly makes sense for pessimistic folks to refrain from stating their true views about OpenAI (or any other lab) just to be polite. They didn’t listen the first times alignment researchers screamed in horror, and they probably won’t listen the next times either. So you might as well just say what you actually think—at least that way, anyone who does listen will find a message worth hearing.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Common misconceptions about OpenAI · 2022-08-26T11:23:02.984Z · LW · GW

Incorrect: OpenAI leadership is dismissive of existential risk from AI.

Why, then, would they continue to build the technology which causes that risk? Why do they consider it morally acceptable to build something which might well end life on Earth?

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Common misconceptions about OpenAI · 2022-08-26T11:07:34.344Z · LW · GW

Incorrect: OpenAI is not aware of the risks of race dynamics.

I don't think this is a common misconception. I, at least, have never heard anyone claim OpenAI isn't aware of the risk of race dynamics—just that it nonetheless exacerbates them. So I think this section is responding to a far dumber criticism than the one which people actually commonly make.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Two-year update on my personal AI timelines · 2022-08-03T23:03:58.182Z · LW · GW

I don’t expect a discontinuous jump in AI systems’ generality or depth of thought from stumbling upon a deep core of intelligence

I felt surprised reading this, since "ability to automate AI development" feels to me like a central example of a "deep core of intelligence"—i.e., of a cognitive ability which makes attaining many other cognitive abilities far easier. Does it not feel like a central example to you?

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on LessWrong Has Agree/Disagree Voting On All New Comment Threads · 2022-07-05T20:12:38.728Z · LW · GW

I could imagine this sort of fix mostly solving the problem for readers, but so far at least I've been most pained by this while voting. The categories "truth-tracking" and "true" don't seem cleanly distinguishable to me—nor do e.g. "this is the sort of thing I want to see on LW" and "I agree"—so now I experience type error-ish aversion and confusion each time I vote.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Safetywashing · 2022-07-02T09:51:37.483Z · LW · GW

I’m worried about this too, especially since I think it’s surprisingly easy here (relative to most fields/goals) to accidentally make the situation even worse. For example, my sense is people often mistakenly conclude that working on capabilities will help with safety somehow, just because an org's leadership pays lip service to safety concerns—even if the org only spends a small fraction of its attention/resources on safety work, actively tries to advance SOTA, etc.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Safetywashing · 2022-07-01T12:03:58.093Z · LW · GW

A tongue-in-cheek suggestion for noticing this phenomena: when you encounter professions of concern about alignment, ask yourself whether it seems like the person making those claims is hoping you’ll react like the marine mammals in this DuPont advertisement, dancing to Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy” about the release of double-hulled oil tankers.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on adam_scholl's Shortform · 2022-06-29T08:46:04.061Z · LW · GW

In the early 1900s the Smithsonian Institution published a book each year, which mostly just described their organizational and budget updates. But they each also contained a General Appendix at the end, which seems to have served a function analogous to the modern "Edge" essays—reflections by scientists of the time on key questions of interest. For example, the 1929 book includes essays speculating about what "life" and "light" are, how insects fly, etc.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on LessWrong Has Agree/Disagree Voting On All New Comment Threads · 2022-06-24T07:04:09.144Z · LW · GW

For what it's worth, I quite dislike this change. Partly because I find it cluttered and confusing, but also because I think audience agreement/disagreement should in fact be a key factor influencing comment rankings.

In the previous system, my voting strategy roughly reflected the product of (how glad I was some comment was written) and (how much I agreed with it). I think this product better approximates my overall sense of how much I want to recommend people read the comment—since all else equal, I do want to recommend comments more insofar as I agree with them more.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-22T09:45:56.930Z · LW · GW

It's true some CFAR staff have used psychedelics, and I'm sure they've sometimes mentioned that in private conversation. But CFAR as an institution never advocated psychedelic use, and that wasn't just because it was illegal, it was because (and our mentorship and instructor trainings emphasize this) psychedelics often harm people.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-22T00:48:09.965Z · LW · GW

Yeah, this was the post I meant.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-20T09:22:03.765Z · LW · GW

I agree manager/staff relations have often been less clear at CFAR than is typical. But I'm skeptical that's relevant here, since as far as I know there aren't really even borderline examples of this happening. The closest example to something like this I can think of is that staff occasionally invite their partners to attend or volunteer at workshops, which I think does pose some risk of fucky power dynamics, albeit dramatically less risk imo than would be posed by "the clear leader of an organization, who's revered by staff as a world-historically important philosopher upon whose actions the fate of the world rests, and who has unilateral power to fire any of them, sleeps with many employees."

Am I missing something here? The communication I read from CFAR seemed like it was trying to reveal as little as it could get away with, gradually saying more (and taking a harsher stance towards Brent) in response to public pressure, not like it was trying to help me, a reader, understand what had happened.

As lead author on the Brent post, I felt bummed reading this. I tried really hard to avoid letting my care for/interest in CFAR affect my descriptions of what happened, or my choices about what to describe. Anna and I spent quite large amounts of time—at least double-digit hours, I think probably triple-digit—searching for ways our cognition might be biased or motivated or PR-like, and trying to correct for that. We debated and introspected about it, ran drafts by friends of ours who seemed unusually likely to call us on bullshit, etc.

Looking back, my sense remains that we basically succeeded—i.e., that we described the situation about as accurately and neutrally as we could have. If I'm wrong about this... well, it wasn't for lack of trying.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-20T07:13:04.111Z · LW · GW

I also feel really frustrated that you wrote this, Anna. I think there are a number of obvious and significant disanalogies between the situations at Leverage versus MIRI/CFAR. There's a lot to say here, but a few examples which seem especially salient:

  • To the best of my knowledge, the leadership of neither MIRI nor CFAR has ever slept with any subordinates, much less many of them.
  • While I think staff at MIRI and CFAR do engage in motivated reasoning sometimes wrt PR, neither org engaged in anything close to the level of obsessive, anti-epistemic reputational control alleged in Zoe's post. MIRI and CFAR staff were not required to sign NDAs agreeing they wouldn't talk badly about the org—in fact, at least in my experience with CFAR, staff much more commonly share criticism of the org than praise. CFAR staff were regularly encouraged to share their ideas at workshops and on LessWrong, to get public feedback. And when we did mess up, we tried quite hard to publicly and accurately describe our wrongdoing—e.g., Anna and I spent low-hundreds of hours investigating/thinking through the Brent affair, and tried so hard to avoid accidentally doing anti-epistemic reputational control (this was our most common topic of conversation during this process) that in my opinion, our writeup about it actually makes CFAR seem much more culpable than I think it was.
  • As I understand it, there were ~3 staff historically whose job descriptions involved debugging in some way which you, Anna, now feel uncomfortable with/think was fucky. But to the best of your knowledge, these situations caused much less harm than e.g. Zoe seems to have experienced, and the large majority of staff did not experience this—in general staff rarely explicitly debugged each other, and when it did happen it was clearly opt-in, and fairly symmetrical (e.g., in my personal conversations with you Anna, I'd guess the ratio of you something-like-debugging me to the reverse is maybe 3/2?).
  • CFAR put really a lot of time and effort into trying to figure out how to teach rationality techniques, and how to talk with people about x-risk, without accidentally doing something fucky to people's psyches. Our training curriculum for workshop mentors includes extensive advice on ways to avoid accidentally causing psychological harm. Harm did happen sometimes, which was why our training emphasized it so heavily. But we really fucking tried, and my sense is that we actually did very well on the whole at establishing institutional and personal knowledge about how to be gentle with people in these situations; personally, it's the skillset I'd most worry about the community losing if CFAR shut down and more events started being run by other orgs.

Insofar as you agree with the above, Anna, I'd appreciate you stating that clearly, since I think saying "the OP speaks for me" implies you think the core analogy described in the OP was non-misleading.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-19T22:43:19.167Z · LW · GW

I like the local discourse norm of erring on the side of assuming good faith, but like steven0461, in this case I have trouble believing this was misleading by accident. Given how obviously false, or at least seriously misleading, many of these claims are (as I think accurately described by Anna/Duncan/Eli), my lead hypothesis is that this post was written by a former staff member, who was posing as a current staff member to make the critique seem more damning/informed, who had some ax to grind and was willing to engage in deception to get it ground, or something like that...?

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-19T07:11:40.182Z · LW · GW

Sure, but they led with "I'm a CFAR employee," which suggests they are a CFAR employee. Is this true?

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-19T06:43:20.224Z · LW · GW

I've worked at CFAR for most of the last 5 years, and this comment strikes me as so wildly incorrect and misleading that I have trouble believing it was in fact written by a current CFAR employee. Would you be willing to verify your identity with some mutually-trusted 3rd party, who can confirm your report here? Ben Pace has offered to do this for people in the past.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Peekskill Lyme Incidence · 2021-05-21T22:50:05.361Z · LW · GW

It looks to me like one can buy this Lyme vaccine online without a prescription.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on What trade should we make if we're all getting the new COVID strain? · 2021-02-12T08:29:57.619Z · LW · GW

Are you tempted to drop or reduce the size of this trade in light of the UK seeming to have (roughly speaking, for now at least) contained B.1.1.7?

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Why indoor lighting is hard to get right and how to fix it · 2020-10-29T02:23:39.931Z · LW · GW

Yeah, makes sense. Fwiw, I have encountered one purportedly 97+ CRI lamp that looked awful to me. 

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Why indoor lighting is hard to get right and how to fix it · 2020-10-28T10:23:21.093Z · LW · GW

I really appreciate you writing this!

Just wanted to add that my informal impression from a few experiments is that the difference between 90 CRI and 95+ CRI is actually large. 

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on adam_scholl's Shortform · 2020-10-11T18:31:08.591Z · LW · GW

Another (unlikely, but more likely than almost all other ancient people) candidate for partial future revival: During the 79 AD eruption of Vesuvius, part of this man's brain was vitrified.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on My computational framework for the brain · 2020-09-16T07:16:56.812Z · LW · GW

Your posts about the neocortex have been a plurality of the posts I've been most excited to read this year. I'm super interested in the questions you're asking, and it drives me nuts that they're not asked more in the neuroscience literature.

But there's an aspect of these posts I've found frustrating, which is something like the ratio of "listing candidate answers" to "explaining why you think those candidate answers are promising, relative to nearby alternatives."

Interestingly, I also have this gripe when reading Friston and Hawkins. And I feel like I also have this gripe about my own reasoning, when I think about this stuff—it feels phenomenologically like the only way I know how to generate hypotheses in this domain is by inducing a particular sort of temporary overconfidence, or something.

I don't feel incentivized to do this nearly as much in other domains, and I'm not sure what's going on. My lead hypothesis is that in neuroscience, data is so abundant, and theories/frameworks so relatively scarce, that it's unusually helpful to ignore lots of things—e.g. via the "take as given x, y, z, and p" motion—in order to make conceptual progress. And maybe there's just so much available data here that it would be terribly sisiphean to try to justify all the things one takes as given when forming or presenting intuitions about underlying frameworks. (Indeed, my lead hypothesis for why so many neuroscientists seem to employ strategies like, "contribute to the 'figuring out what roads do' project by spending their career measuring the angles of stop-sign poles relative to the road," is that they feel it's professionally irresponsible, or something, to theorize about underlying frameworks without first trying to concretely falsify a mountain of assumptions).

I think some amount of this motion is helpful for avoiding self-delusion, and the references in your posts make me think you do it at least a bit already. So I guess I just want to politely—and super gratefully, I'm really glad you write these posts regardless! If trying to do this would turn you into a stop sign person, don't do it!—suggest that explicating these more might make it easier for readers to understand your intuitions.

I have many proto-questions about your model, and don't want to spend the time to flesh them all out. But here are some sketches that currently feel top-of-mind:

  • Say there exist genes that confer advantage in math-ey reasoning. By what mechanism is this advantage mediated, if the neocortex is uniform? One story, popular among the "stereotypes of early 2000s cognitive scientists" section of my models, is that brains have an "especially suitable for maths" module, and that genes induce various architectural changes which can improve or degrade its quality. What would a neocortical uniformist's story be here—that genes induce architectural changes which alter the quality of the One Learning Algorithm in general? If you explain it as genes having the ability to tweak hyperparameters or the gross wiring diagram in order to degrade or improve certain circuits' ability to run algorithms this domain-specific, is it still explanatorily useful to describe the neocortex as uniform?
    • My quick, ~90 min investigation into whether neuroscience as a field buys the neocortical uniformity hypothesis suggested it's fairly controversial. Do you know why? Are the objections mostly similar to those of Marcus et al.?
  • Do you have the intuition that aspects of the neocortical algorithm itself (or the subcortical algorithms themselves) might be safety-relevant? Or is your safety-relevance intuition mostly about the subcortical steering mechanism? (Fwiw, I have the former intuition, in that I'm suspicious some of the features of the neocortical algorithm that cause humans to differ from "hardcore optimizers" exist for safety-relevant reasons).
  • In general I feel frustrated with the focus in neuroscience on the implementational Marr Level, relative to the computational and algorithmic levels. I liked the mostly-computational overview here, and the algorithmic sketch in your Predictive Coding = RL + SL + Bayes + MPC post, but I feel bursting with implementational questions. For example:
    • As I understand it, you mention "PGM-type message passing" as a candidate class of algorithm that might perform the "select the best from a population of models" function. Do you just mean you suspect there is something in the general vicinity of a belief propagation algorithm going on here, or is your intuition more specific? If the latter, is the Dileep George paper the main thing motivating that intuition?
    • I don't currently know whether the neuroscience lit contains good descriptions of how credit assignment is implemented. Do you? Do you feel like you have a decent guess, or know whether someone else does?
      • I have the same question about whatever mechanism approximates Bayesian priors—I keep encountering vague descriptions of it being encoded in dopamine distributions, but I haven't found a good explanation of how that might actually work.
  • Are you sure PP deemphasizes the "multiple simultaneous generative models" frame? I understood the references to e.g. the "cognitive economy" in Surfing Uncertainty to be drawing an analogy between populations of individuals exchanging resources in a market, and populations of models exchanging prediction error in the brain.
  • Have you thought much about whether there are parts of this research you shouldn't publish? I notice feeling slightly nervous every time I see you've made a new post, I think because I basically buy the "safety and capabilities are in something of a race" hypothesis, and fear that succeeding at your goal and publishing about it might shorten timelines.
Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms · 2020-08-23T00:08:42.897Z · LW · GW

This post primarily argues that a phenomenon is evidence for [learned models being likely to encode search algorithms]

I do mention interpreting the described results as tentative evidence for mesa-optimization, and this interpretation was why I wrote the post; my impression is still that this interpretation was basically correct. But most of the post is just quotes or paraphrased claims made by DeepMind researchers, rather than my own claims, since I didn't feel sure enough to make the claims myself.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms · 2020-08-22T23:23:36.728Z · LW · GW

I feel confused about why, on this model, the researchers were surprised that this occurred, and seem to think it was a novel finding that it will inevitably occur given the three conditions described. Above, you mentioned the hypothesis that maybe they just weren't very familiar with AI. But looking at the author list, and their publications (e.g.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8), this seems implausible to me. Most of the co-authors are neuroscientists by training, but a few have CS degrees, and all but one have co-authored previous ML papers. It's hard for me to imagine their surprise was due to them lacking basic knowledge about RL?

Also, this OpenAI paper (whose authors seem quite familiar with ML)—which the summary of Wang et al. on DeepMind's website describes as "closely related work," and which appears to me to involve a very similar setup— describes their result similarly:

We structure the agent as a recurrent neural network, which receives past rewards, actions, and termination flags as inputs in addition to the normally received observations. Furthermore, its internal state is preserved across episodes, so that it has the capacity to perform learning in its own hidden activations. The learned agent thus also acts as the learning algorithm, and can adapt to the task at hand when deployed.

As I understand it, the OpenAI authors also think they can gather evidence about the structure of the algorithm simply by looking at its behavior. Given a similar series of experiments (mostly bandit tasks, but also a maze solver), they conclude:

the dynamics of the recurrent network come to implement a learning algorithm entirely separate from the one used to train the network weights... the procedure the recurrent network implements is itself a full-fledged reinforcement learning algorithm, which negotiates the exploration-exploitation tradeoff and improves the agent’s policy based on reward outcomes... this learned RL procedure can differ starkly from the algorithm used to train the network’s weights.

They then run an experiment designed specifically to distinguish whether meta-RL was giving rise to a model-free system, or “a model-based system which learns an internal model of the environment and evaluates the value of actions at the time of decision-making through look-ahead planning,” and suggest the evidence implies the latter. This sounds like a description of search to me—do you think I'm confused?

I get the impression from your comments that you think it's naive to describe this result as "learning algorithms spontaneously emerging." You describe the lack of LW/AF pushback against that description as "a community-wide failure," and mention updating as a result toward thinking AF members “automatically believe anything written in a post without checking it.”

But my impression is that OpenAI describes their similar result in a similar way. Do you think my impression is wrong? Or that e.g. their description is also misleading?

--

I've been feeling very confused lately about how people talk about "search," and have started joking that I'm a search panpsychist. Lots of interesting phenomenon look like piles of thermostats when viewed from the wrong angle, and I worry the conventional lens is deceptively narrow.

That said, when I condition on (what I understand to be) the conventional conception, it's difficult for me to imagine how e.g. the maze-solver described in the OpenAI paper can quickly and reliably locate maze exits, without doing something reasonably describable as searching for them.

And it seems to me that Wang et al. should be taken as evidence that "learning algorithms producing other search-performing learning algorithms" is convergently useful/likely to be a common feature of future systems, even if you don't think that's what happened in their paper, as long as you assign decent credence to their underlying model that this is what's going on in PFC, and that search occurs in PFC.

If the primary difference between the DeepMind and OpenAI meta-RL architecture and the PFC/DA architecture is scale, I think there's reasonable reason to suspect something much like mesa-optimization will emerge in future meta-RL systems, even if it hasn't yet. That is, I interpret this result as evidence for the hypothesis that highly competent general-ish learners might tend to exhibit this feature, since (among other reasons) it increased my credence that it is already exhibited by the only existing member of that reference class.

Evan mentions agreeing that this result isn't new evidence in favor of mesa-optimization. But he also mentions that Risks from Learned Optimization references these two papers, and describes them as "the closest to producing mesa-optimizers of any existing machine learning research." I feel confused about how to reconcile these two claims. I didn't realize these papers were mentioned in Risks from Learned Optimization, but if I had, I think I would have been even more inclined to post this/try to ensure people knew about the results, since my (perhaps naive, perhaps not understanding ways this is disanalogous) prior is that the closest existing example to this problem might provide evidence about its nature or likelihood.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms · 2020-08-21T08:27:21.977Z · LW · GW

I appreciate you writing this, Rohin. I don’t work in ML, or do safety research, and it’s certainly possible I misunderstand how this meta-RL architecture works, or that I misunderstand what’s normal.

That said, I feel confused by a number of your arguments, so I'm working on a reply. Before I post it, I'd be grateful if you could help me make sure I understand your objections, so as to avoid accidentally publishing a long post in response to a position nobody holds.

I currently understand you to be making four main claims:

  1. The system is just doing the totally normal thing “conditioning on observations,” rather than something it makes sense to describe as "giving rise to a separate learning algorithm."
  2. It is probably not the case that in this system, “learning is implemented in neural activation changes rather than neural weight changes.”
  3. The system does not encode a search algorithm, so it provides “~zero evidence” about e.g. the hypothesis that mesa-optimization is convergently useful, or likely to be a common feature of future systems.
  4. The above facts should be obvious to people familiar with ML.

Does this summary feel like it reasonably characterizes your objections?

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms · 2020-08-18T21:20:02.622Z · LW · GW

The scenario I had in mind was one where death occurs as a result of damage caused by low food consumption, rather than by suicide.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms · 2020-08-18T17:42:47.263Z · LW · GW
One way catastrophic alignment in this sense is difficult for humans is that the PFC cannot divorce itself from the DA; I'd expect that a failure mode leading to systematically low DA rewards would usually be corrected

I'm not sure divorce like this is rare. For example, anorexia sometimes causes people to find food anti-rewarding (repulsive/inedible, even when they're dying and don't to be), and I can imagine that being because PFC actually somehow alters DAs reward function.

But I do share the hunch that something like a "divorce resistance" trick occurs and is helpful. I took Kaj and Steve to be gesturing at something similar elsewhere in the thread. But I notice feeling confused about how exactly this trick might work. Does it scale...?

I have the intuition that it doesn't—that as the systems increase in power, divorce occurs more easily. That is, I have the intuition that if PFC were trying, so to speak, to divorce itself from DA supervision, that it could probably find some easy-ish way to succeed, e.g. by reconfiguring itself to hide activity from DA, or to send reward-eliciting signals to DA regardless of what goal it was pursuing.

Comment by Adam Scholl (adam_scholl) on Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms · 2020-08-18T16:11:41.608Z · LW · GW
I think it makes more sense to operationalize "catastrophic" here as "leading to systematically low DA reward

Thanks—I do think this operationalization makes more sense than the one I proposed.