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The person whose tweets were linked above when mentioning "they become Zealots, doing lasting damage to their lives, and then burning out spectacularly."
Before I read the aphoristic three-word reply to you from Richard Kennaway (admittedly a likely even clearer-cut way to indicate the following sentiment), I was thinking that to downplay any unintended implications about the magnitude of your probabilities that you could maybe say something about your tracking being for mundane-vigilance or intermittent-map-maintenance or routine-reality-syncing / -surveying / -sampling reasons.
For any audience you anticipate familiarity with this essay though, another idea might be to use a version of something like:
"The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on [by default][and {also} tracking <for posterity>]."
(spoilered section below just corrals a ~dozen expansions / embellishments of the above)
"The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on and tracking."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on and tracking for posterity."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on and also tracking."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on by default."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on by default and tracking."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on by default and tracking for posterity."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on by default and also tracking."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on by default and will track mindfully for posterity."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on by default (mindfully though—and so will also just track as a matter of course)."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on by default (mindfully though, so tracking then for posterity)."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on by default and tracking."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on and will track mindfully for posterity."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on (mindfully though—and so will also just track as a matter of course)."
- "The plumber says it's fixed, which I'm splitting on (mindfully though, so tracking then for posterity)."
While we're on the topic of amending standard Mafia, I suppose I'll also mention that implementing Robin Hanson's EquaTalk might make for an interesting game as well.
The first lecture at this link and accompanying handout from UChicago's (now-retired) writing-program director, Larry McEnerney, has come up here on a number of occasions.
Additionally, I imagine you'll be able to unearth some good stuff perusing LW's writing tag.
Since you've not mentioned a specific brand, to make it potentially even easier for people to grab something they might like I suppose I'll go ahead and link to the following (which appeared many moons ago in a product-recommendation post on SSC), though note it's a bit less sugary than the one above, i.e. just 7g/Tbsp: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00CMGRNAK
Here you go: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/13/growing-children-for-bostroms-disneyland/
Among other things I suppose they're not super up on that to efficiently colonise the universe [...] watch dry paint stay dry.
Here's a video
It's also written up on Cognitive Revolution's substack for those that prefer text.
Here's the post about it: AI presidents discuss AI alignment agendas
clicked first relative to receiving are the same person! And also that person is from the majority group
A majority member being the initial clicker also isn't terribly surprising because a group being larger means one-or-more of any given sort of person -- in this case, a quick-responder-type -- is likelier to crop up among them.
A small extra detail not mentioned: the end of the linked URL is "unilateralism=true".
While not really answering your question, reading the description for the problem you're having brought this exploration / taxonomy of okay-ness to mind.
Looks like the answer is yes.
Also perhaps of interest might be this discussion from the SSC subreddit awhile back where someone detailed their pro-Bigfoot case.
Serious question: would something originating adjacently from a separate Everett branch count?
(sillier-though-hopefully-not-counterproductive question: since your final statement especially would, I think, often seem to go without saying, its "needless" inclusion actually strikes me as probably-not-but-still-hypothetically-maybe worrisome -- surely you're not intending to imply that's the only recourse allowed for being denied one's winning lottery ticket? [or perhaps my own asking is needless since someone deciding to be a jerk and not wanting to pay could simply use such agreed-upon discretion to "fairly" declare themselves the winner anyways, in which case: sorry for the derail!])
("Halt, Melt, and Catch Fire" is in a few posts in the Coming of Age sequence)
Somewhat similar to you I've thought of the second group as "Vroomers", though Eliezer's talk of cursed bananas has amusingly brought "Sunnysiders" to mind for me as well.
I can't vouch for this personally and don't even recall the source (always a great way to start advice...), but I remember reading once that a pinch of sugar sublingually with a touch of salt might also help for quickly returning to sleep.
The "Borderline" icon currently being a balance is something I most naturally interpret as "balanced fairly", whereas a similar-ish alternative -- open hands gesturing up & down -- reads more like "iffy" to me and might better communicate the concept. Here's a simultaneously too complex and too crude mockup based on https://thenounproject.com/icon/hand-disinfection-3819834/ :
A similar idea to indicate that something might be kind of a toss-up (which at first blush strikes me as less good than palms balancing, yet maybe better than the icon already in use), would be some sort of flipping coin, e.g. something like https://thenounproject.com/icon/toss-a-coin-3819618/ sans hand. Or perhaps https://thenounproject.com/icon/coin-flipping-2307580/ including the hand.
Another idea could be a thumb sticking out sideways ala https://thenounproject.com/icon/thumb-horizontal-4154461/ , though somehow that reads to me as possibly more judgmental maybe.
Finally, I noticed these half-arrows pointing in opposite directions: https://thenounproject.com/icon/double-side-arrow-236719/ . I don't know if their abstract nature would make them feel less judge-y or if them sorta mirroring the left/right arrows we already use for voting would read to some as actually *more* unnecessarily judgemental.
I'm surprised to see a "Wrong" icon as a counterpart to "Verified" and not something like "Citation Needed / Requested" or something else that solicits information / evidence.
Using a plain heart to express empathy seems easier to confuse with "I love this" than seems ideal. Here are a few other options that seemed potentially appealing after looking through results at The Noun Project for "Empathy" and "Hug":
https://thenounproject.com/icon/take-care-4694299/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/hug-4400944/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/heartbeat-977219/
I think "Muddled" unfortunately seems easier to naturally interpret in an accusatory way, so something else indicating "this was hard for me to see / wasn't clear to me" might work better. My initial thought was to maybe use "Foggy" as a metaphor (as in, "there might be something there, but I'm having a hard time seeing it"). I suppose something with a lighthouse probably looks more like "a beacon of clarity", though here are some other possible Hazy / Cloudy things:
https://thenounproject.com/icon/cloudy-day-3240714/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/night-fog-40783/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/foggy-weather-3244281/
"Strawman" seems like it might be kind of niche, so I went on a quest looking for something more indicative of "I find this to be misleading / misrepresentative" before realizing this apparently already exists. I can't say I really have any issue with the one already in use, but since there seems to be lots of ways to approach this and I already have several at hand, here's a multitude of alternatives just in case any seem especially resonant. Themes depicted below include loss of signal or mutations in translation, frames being warped or distorted or stuff that's been twisted, something that's erroneous or unfair or illusory, ideas seeming substantially askew / outlandish / alien, and other wrongness. Enjoy!
https://thenounproject.com/icon/miscommunication-2746050/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/cyclops-60205/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/risk-4478883/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/twist-down-2583424/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/arrow-2543664/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/spiral-705644/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/spiral-705646/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/coil-spring-2099878/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/twist-5313674/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/optical-illusion-44906/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/mesh-tools-5709061/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/puzzle-5736537/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/speech-bubble-156409/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/ufo-1900465/
https://thenounproject.com/icon/alien-900190/
I prefer this as a default as well since it's information-preserving and the most common reactions will often cluster more-leftward anyway.
I agree and also I wanted to leave a thanks-react for making that submission, but apparently am short of the requisite karma threshold, so... thanks! :)
This seems right to me since e.g. if someone were to use anti-excitement to indicate "this is draining" there'd then be an issue of how someone else might see this and then wonder how best to express they think it's actually pretty neutral rather than draining (since, while excitement cancels out anti-excitement, indicating excitement itself wouldn't be truth-tracking in this case).
Another hybrid approach if you have multiple substantive comments is to silo each of them in their own reply to a parent comment you've made to serve as an anchor point to / index for your various thoughts. This also has the nice side effect of still allowing separate voting on each of your points as well as (I think) enabling them, when quoting the OP, to potentially each be shown as an optimally-positioned side-comment.
Also posted on his shortform :) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fxfsc4SWKfpnDHY97/landfish-lab?commentId=jLDkgAzZSPPyQgX7i
I don't have a direct answer for you, though I imagine the resource mentioned at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MKvtmNGCtwNqc44qm/announcing-aisafety-training might well turn up what you're looking for :)
Emoji: Minor Gripe Edition 👺🤡🐉
(I thought to append an even gaudier headlining tag, but don't have the heart—if though, by the way, you don't know what's so gaudy about it [and/or already don't reckon you much care about such a gripe] and simultaneously also don't love that I've surreptitiously stolen the focus of your eyeballs for such a matter, well... maybe we're in more agreement than you think! ♥)
A couple things I think I'd enjoy seeing regarding mini-ideogram usage here, though happy to know others' opinions as well:
I'd love if the default text-color was also used as the default for emoji (especially for posts, though maybe shortforms [and/or the approximately-two-tweets-worth of initial characters also visible in mouseover previews, though admittedly that's perhaps too burdensome] since those are visible when scrolling All Posts without an additional click); IANAE, though for at least a subset of emoji it seems this might be accomplished simply by affixing the Unicode combining character U+FE0E VARIATION SELECTOR-15 (VS15) to switch them to their text-representation, though alternatively there are open monochrome fonts that instead cover the full spectrum like the one found here: https://fonts.google.com/noto/specimen/Noto+Emoji
Don't get me wrong, although I think I prefer some initial friction for its use, I'm not actually anti-color in general (e.g. I've largely felt ok about the images people have decided to insert within their writings).
Anyway, one last thing (maybe even the most important): as hypocritically-hinted at the outset, I also don't love them in post titles (at least when on display untruncated, anyway), though admit a bit more tolerance when confining such flourishes to personal blogs (which—I confess, yes—this post technically isn't). I agree with a recent commenter from a few days back mentioning such headline usage is usually unpleasantly attention-hijacking, though since their downvote of disapproval was met with much disagreement, I guess the next-best option for trying to maintain a tasteful garden could be actually disimplementing them outright since mere disincentivization seems frowned upon.
Looking back in closing, I think I could've condensed this considerable whinge to a fraction of the footprint given more time (or merely mightier 'moji-mojo, maybe), though with so rarely putting pinkies to keyboard, perhaps you'll excuse the rare semi-ramble indulgence. Sure sure... shortform, schmortform... yet nicely tiny, this isn't (and I try to keep [real] tidy, y'see?), though guess that goes with only minor explication too, so fine... further thoughts, colorfully-embellished or otherwise? 🎤
I don't know how promising this might be, but I saw the following yesterday via the Bountied Rationality facebook group after someone else posted an ad regarding possibly getting Paxlovid shipped to China: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3775373-pfizer-signs-deal-to-sell-paxlovid-in-china-as-covid-cases-climb-report/
No specific suggestions other than maybe to consider perusing the sleep tag here and perhaps this article from the EA Forum last year. Best of luck with your experiment! :)
Also along these lines, perhaps contrasting the flicker fusion rates of different species could be illustrative as well. Here's a 30-second video displaying the relative perceptions of a handful of species side by side: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eA--1YoXHIQ . Additionally, a short section from 10:22 - 10:43 of this other video that incorporates time-stretched audio of birdcalls is fairly evocative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvg242U2YfQ .
As far as pithy new verbiage goes, here's a couple possibilities: one might say the can't-stand-this suffering results from being abruptly "dreadpilled" or "sunderstruck".
I wonder if a more influential attribution might be https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we-taking-ai-seriously-enough-9313474.html since, in addition to Stuart Russell, it also lists Stephen Hawking, Max Tegmark, and Frank Wilczek on the byline.
For policymakers: "Whereas the short-term impact of AI depends on who controls it, the long-term impact depends on whether it can be controlled at all."
— Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, and Frank Wilczek (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we-taking-ai-seriously-enough-9313474.html)
For policymakers: "[AGI] could spell the end of the human race. […] it would […] redesign itself at an ever-increasing rate. Humans […] couldn't compete and would be superseded."
— Stephen Hawking (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30290540)
For policymakers: "If people design computer viruses, someone will design AI that replicates itself. This will be a new form of life that will outperform humans."
— Stephen Hawking (https://www.wired.co.uk/article/stephen-hawking-interview-alien-life-climate-change-donald-trump)
Curious about this as well since neither of these recently-updated articles from the NYTimes-owned (meta)review site The Wirecutter mention being able to find any bone-conduction headphones they liked.
These were my first ideas as well, albeit in reverse order ;) Having thought a bit more now, I might prefer yet another option -- what about "twirling"? (like "in circles" or "your hair")
Here's a post, though not from Alicorn, that has some info that may be of interest: http://lesswrong.com/lw/453/procedural_knowledge_gaps/3i49
FWLIW, I took "I've never heard of metatroll either, but I won't hold that against them :)" as intended to have a net-deëscalatory effect, even if it didn't seem to be entirely subtext-free. (and this combination of attributes is not something I have a problem with)
Apparently it's supposed to link here.
FYI, this is the original source of that top line you're quoting: http://asofterworld.com/index.php?id=740
(the alt-text might[n't] also be noteworthy to you, which reads "Understanding is for terrorists.")
Feel free to comment -- since only the user you're replying to (and anyone that has chosen to subscribe to updates for that specific post) is notified, you don't need to fear being a distraction to masses of people who might no longer care.
Perhaps the article you read was Yvain's The Virtue of Silence?
Explanation here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/mo0/open_thread_aug_24_aug_30/couo
I strongly dislike this. The head seems too ornate and the outline reminds me of so-called "tribal" tattoos, which seems low status. The body being subtly asymmetrical is a slight annoyance as well and with the owl now being centered in the image I think the subtitle should be too.
An additional reason to punish defection is to disincentivize would-be defectors in the future since they know they too would be risking such punishment.
Seeing as how you're potentially willing to put money toward this, have you considering running a contest?