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Maybe "counterfactually robust" is an OK phrase?

The vestibular system can detect whether you look up or down. It could be that the reflex triggers when you a) look down (vestibular system) and b) have a visual parallax that indicates depth (visual system).

Should be easy to test by closing one eye. Alternatively, it is the degree of accommodation of the lens. That should be testable by looking down with a lens that forces accommodation on short distances.

The negative should also be testable by asking congenitally blind people about their experience with this feeling of dizziness close to a rim.

And quantitatively I think it would improve overall chances of AGI going well by double-digit percentage points at least.

Makes sense. By comparison, my own unconditional estimate of p(doom) is not much higher than 10%, and so it's hard on my view for any intervention to have a double-digit percentage point effect.

The crude mortality rate before the pandemic was about 0.7%. If we use that number to estimate the direct cost of a 1-year pause, then this is the bar that we'd need to clear for a pause to be justified. I find it plausible that this bar could be met, but at the same time, I am also pretty skeptical of the mechanisms various people have given for how a pause will help with AI safety.

Thanks! Added.

Thanks! Added.

Checking a number's precision correctly is quite trivial, and there were one-line fixes I could have applied that would make the function work properly on all numbers, not just some of them.

I'm really curious about what such fixes look like. In my experience, those edge cases tend to come about when there is some set of mutually incompatible desired properties of a system, the the mutual incompatibility isn't obvious. For example

1. We want to use standard IEEE754 floating point numbers to store our data
2. If two numbers are not equal to each other, they should not have the same string representation.
3. The sum of two numbers should have a precision no higher than the operand with the highest precision. For example, adding 0.1 + 0.2 should yield 0.3, not 0.30000000000000004.

It turns out those are mutually incompatible requirements!

You could say "we should drop requirement 1 and use a fixed point or fraction datatype" but that's emphatically not a one line change, and has its own places where you'll run into mutually incompatible requirements.

Or you could add a "duct tape" solution like "use printf("%.2f", result) in the case where we actually ran into this problem, in which we know both operands have a 2 decimal precision, and revisit if this bug comes up again in a different context".

Perhaps. I don't know much about the yields and so forth at the time, nor about the specific plans if any that were made for nuclear combat.

But I'd speculate that dozens of kiloton range fission bombs would have enabled the US and allies to win a war against the USSR. Perhaps by destroying dozens of cities, perhaps by preventing concentrations of defensive force sufficient to stop an armored thrust.

Nice contrarian view on the popular contrarians - and in yours I have at least 75% faith :) :

Ironically, if your elaborations are arguably themselves a bit broad brushed, as @Viliam [LW · GW] points out, this could in an odd way also be seen as underlining your core take away: even here, where publication bias (or reading-bias induced publication-bias) is decried, maybe a hint of the bias has already sneaked in again.

Duct-tape fixes are common in the wake of anything that goes publicly wrong. When people get hurt, they demand change, and they pressure whoever is in charge to give it to them. But implementing a proper fix is generally more complicated (since you have to perform a root cause analysis), less visible (therefore not earning the leader any social credit), or just plain unnecessary (if the risk was already priced in). So the incentives are in favor of quickly slapping something together that superficially appears to be a solution, without regards for whether it makes sense.

Wow, I kinda already knew this. But it had never been said so clearly and brought to the front of my mind in this way. It perfectly describes the strategies YouTube has used through its various apocalypses.

OK, thanks for clarifying.

Personally I think a 1-year pause right around the time of AGI would give us something like 50% of the benefits of a 10-year pause. That's just an initial guess, not super stable. And quantitatively I think it would improve overall chances of AGI going well by double-digit percentage points at least. Such that it makes sense to do a 1-year pause even for the sake of an elderly relative avoiding death from cancer, not to mention all the younger people alive today.