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comment by Lao Mein (derpherpize) · 2022-11-27T12:00:53.386Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

If socialist workplaces actually had all those benefits, they would already be taking over much of the economy. But we don't see very many co-ops in the wild. My personal experience is that unions and co-ops tend to shift compensation to those with seniority and those involved with corporate politics instead of the skilled, productive, and competent ones. This then causes more time and energy to be spent on corporate politics and drives out the most productive employees. 

You're very much underestimating the effects of the top-performers at a business. The market has run the experiment of comparing socialist firms to capitalist ones for more than a century and every result has shown that socialist firms just aren't competitive. Yes, there are benefits to the less productive employees. But the cost of driving out the productives has been shown to be higher in just about every sector. Hence why there aren't very many socialist firms.

Replies from: MathiasKirkBonde, TAG, Bob Jacobs
comment by MathiasKB (MathiasKirkBonde) · 2022-11-27T12:29:17.765Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

There's countries where cooperative firms are doing fine. Most of Denmark's supermarket chains are owned by the cooperative coop. Denmark's largest dairy producer Arla is a cooperative too. Both operate in a free market and are out-competing privately owned competitors.

Both also resort to many of the same dirty tricks traditionally structured firms are pulling. Arla, for example, has done tremendous harm to the plant-based industry through aggressive lobbying. Structuring firms as cooperatives doesn't magically make them aligned.

Replies from: oskar-mathiasen, mikkel-wilson
comment by Oskar Mathiasen (oskar-mathiasen) · 2022-11-28T15:15:51.291Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Note that coop is a consumer cooperative not an employee cooperative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumers%27_co-operative 
 

comment by MikkW (mikkel-wilson) · 2022-11-28T00:01:58.949Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Worth noting explicitly, the Danish government is in general much more hands-on in the economy than in most other countries. I don't know specifically how that manifests itself here, but I expect that's an important part of it

comment by TAG · 2022-11-28T08:11:48.749Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Most firms don't arise as the result of a group of people getting together with a blank slate as to how to.organise themselves; they start as one or two people who found a firm, which they continue to manage , hiring employees as they go along. Such firms are hierarchical because of the unequal status of the founders and hirelings, not because they are better ... and cooperatives are scarce because of the lack of a route to.them.

My personal experience is that unions and co-ops tend to shift compensation to those with seniority and those involved with corporate politics instead of the skilled, productive, and competent ones. This then causes more time and energy to be spent on corporate politics and drives out the most productive employees.

I've seen this happen in capitalist corporations, too. In either case, the people who decide on compensation can increase their compensation with no regard to their own productivity. Indeed under capitalism, the owner 's right to profit is based solely on ownership, not on any input.

comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T12:15:14.985Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I've already explained why socialists firms wouldn't necessarily take over the economy even if they were productive in both the post and other comments.

comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T19:37:39.451Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

You indicated that there was a problem with me doing a spot check on something not directly related to co-ops, so let me instead do a spot check on something directly related to co-ops:

Let's look at what the literature indicates as the benefits of socialist firms:

[...] 3. Workers put in more effort[11] [LW(p) · GW(p)]

I believe this is the cited study?

I'm confused about this study because the abstract seems to say that conventionally owned firms are better than co-ops:

In our experiments, subjects in conventionally-owned firms exhibited higher productivity, perceived greater fairness in the pay they received and the method used to pay them, reported higher levels of involvement in their tasks, had more positive evaluations of their supervisors, and showed a greater propensity to interact with and provide assistance to their co-workers than did those in employee-owned firms.

However, this seems to contradict table 3, where co-ops did better. So maybe they swapped around the labels in the abstract or something.

I'm also confused about what role the owner/supervisor was supposed to play in the work. It looks like the experimental simulation-company had workers do fairly independent tasks (spellchecking), and that there were not significant coordination or risk-management tasks for the owners to solve.

comment by Felix Lucas (felix-lucas) · 2022-11-28T08:21:25.073Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This is a well thought-out post with many citations and you've addressed a lot of valid points.

There are, however, a few fatal issues that really undermine the long-term viability of this kind of company.

To begin with, the fact that there are so few successful socialist firms is a really big deal that you can't simply hand-wave away. Yes, there might be a handful (dozen?) of co-op firms in the OECD that we can say are moderately 'successful' - but they are certainly the exception rather than the rule. If co-ops have all the advantages you clearly listed, then they will be the dominant form of enterprise.  But they're not. In no particular order:

Co-ops are quite incompatible with firm mobility. Somebody who has just joined the firm does not have the same ability to add-value, nor should they be afforded the same 'voting' right as a more experienced veteran. Very quickly, using any kind of practical measure, you can see that firm mobility and co-op equity quickly breaks down.

Funding becomes the next obvious point. At some point, all companies must raise funds. They have two choices: (1) Debt or (2) Equity. Many firms are capital intensive and simply will never be able to raise the required funds from their own workers to achieve growth. Therefore, they can either raise debt - which does not dilute the voting rights - or raise equity from external parties - which does. But it's important to note that even under equity, this doesn't really impact the day-to-day function of a business. Sure, shareholders will elect the board of directors and that can influence the broad direction of a company - but rarely does this deviate from "achieve as much profit as possible". And if it does, then the company is unlikely to survive anyway.

But the fact that workers don't sink their entire savings into their company's shares (most people are employed by private companies) also demonstrate that most people don't really care about ownership of the company they work for. And why would they? They want to maximise their retirement savings. Being diversified makes sense. You can't be diversified if you've sunk all your money into the company you work for. And what happens if you want to move company?

To a certain extent, all firms are socialist - either implicitly of explicitly. Any publicly listed company can, and does have stock ownership by employees. Many privately listed companies are structured as partnerships (eg: any professional services firms). However, any business in the 21st century will be capital intensive in a manner which is simply beyond the ability. But regardless - the majority of decisions are made by groups, committees, panels of employees at similar ranks. CEO's rarely make decisions in a vaccuum - they make decisions with their c-level executives and boards of directors because they have a comparable level of competence and preparedeness.

The problem is when minimum-wage workers insist on having the same 'voting' right or decision-making capability as a senior person who is far more competent. If this was a superior way to run a firm, it would already be the norm. The fact that it's not is demonstrative that business decisions require competence and firms hire and promote to achieve this level of competence.

It's entirely possible that there is some sort of co-op model out there that is genuine superior to traditional firms. I would like to see it in action before going down the path of trying to implement government incentives to achieve something that we're not even sure is a good idea (and might actually destroy wealth of freedom of employees to move between jobs, or be hired into jobs they like).

It would be good of you as well to summarise the risks or genuine downsides of worker-owned co-ops. Mobility, personal wealth planning, firm decision-making, alignment of incentives to performance are very likely to be impacted.

Replies from: Slider
comment by Slider · 2022-11-28T10:06:16.674Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Why is not the income from the business activity of the firm an option for the growth?

Replies from: david-duvenaud
comment by David Duvenaud (david-duvenaud) · 2022-11-28T15:54:20.119Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

It is an option, but it only allows for relatively slow growth, and only for businesses that aren't capital-intensive.  So it's a good option for something like consulting firms or law firms, where there aren't really any up-front costs that need to be paid off over time.

But imagine you invent a new type of power plant.  Many plants benefit from economies of scale, and also take 10-20 years to pay off their up-front construction costs.   How could a co-op finance building even a single plant?  Similar arguments apply to most forms of manufacturing, or really anything that can be mass-produced.

Even in the case where organic growth is sustainable, it'll usually have to compete with much faster inorganic, financed growth.

Replies from: Viliam, Slider
comment by Viliam · 2022-11-28T20:40:22.622Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

A sufficiently large co-op could raise lot of money. For example, if you have 10 000 employees, and they democratically decide to invest $100 per person into a new project, you have $1M. Not enough for a power plant, but perhaps for something smaller. I think Mondragon Corporation does similar things.

But this probably wouldn't feel sufficiently pure (ideologically) to many people. Imagine that you have a system of mutually connected co-ops with 1M employees total, and they decide to invest $1000 per person, and build an actual power plant. On one hand, you have a co-op-owned power plant, yay! On the other hand, the power plant itself is not actually owned (exclusively) by its own workers; it is mostly owned by co-op employees working in other businesses. Many people would feel that this is a mockery of their ideas; that the people working at the power plant do not have the true co-op-ness.

Replies from: Slider
comment by Slider · 2022-11-28T21:23:03.312Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

They could incrementally buy it back for "purity". Ends up being a kind of crowdsourcing.

comment by Slider · 2022-11-28T18:14:25.419Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Fast growth for growth sake expectations comes from jackpot seekers. I can see how loans are a justified way to get over that "first unit" hump. But if you have even a few actors like Uber that grow to big size fast and run at a loss, actors that prove their economic viability step by step can't really exist. Consumers end up having the product cheaper than it can be produced and loaners (or whoever ends up being the sucker in stock poker) end up paying for it.

It seems very worrying if the "Does it make money?" is so fundamentally skippable that it is not worth considering. A worker that has found an activity they feel is meaningful and pays for their living is not in a big hurry to transmute it to another kind of activity, althought an attitude that a craft picked up should be developed exists.

Replies from: david-duvenaud
comment by David Duvenaud (david-duvenaud) · 2022-11-29T03:02:22.881Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The nice thing about loaners losing money on unprofitable businesses is that it's a self-correcting problem to some degree - those loaners can only lose all their money once!  And if consumers get part of that money, it's effectively a charity.

Sometimes it seems like investors might not even consider whether their investments will make money, but most of the ones who last very long do care.

comment by Viliam · 2022-11-27T22:03:58.683Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Oh, come on, the afterword ruined an otherwise great article!

I would love to learn more about co-ops. As far as I know, Mondragon Corporation is probably the biggest one, but there is frustratingly little information to find about them online.

What I heard about co-ops (no idea how generally this applies) is that if they grow, they often change to something else. Like, you have a worker-owned company with 100 workers, and one day they have an opportunity to grow 10× in size. And suddenly the original 100 workers are like: "wait, we spent decades working for this moment to happen, and now the new guys should be our equals? no way!", and the company finds a way to change itself in such way that the new 900 workers are mere workers, but not co-owners. (Perhaps the Mondragon Corporation is exceptional precisely for not doing this. They encourage new people joining their system; they even lend them money to start new branches within the system.)

The difficult part about starting a co-op is in my opinion simply the fact that people who have the skills necessary to start a co-op, can usually use the same skills to start a company that is fully owned by them.

Calling co-ops "socialist" means introducing a culture war needlessly. I grew up in socialism, and we had lots of companies that were definitely not owned by their workers, workers did not put in much effort, and the only reason they didn't fail was the government endlessly bailing them out. On the other hand, there are co-ops in capitalist countries. So please do not use "socialist" and "co-op" as synonyms!

Given the recent discussion [EA · GW] surrounding the structuring and transparency of EA organizations, perhaps the community could consider turning their EA organizations into socialist firms.

Not sure if you are aware of the irony, but notice that you are proposing to convert a "non-socialist" firm into a "socialist" one, instead of creating a new "socialist" firm from scratch. Which shows that even you do not see a creation of a "socialist" firm as a realistic goal. Perhaps it is much easier for your tribe to take over an existing successful organization than create a new one, but shouldn't your opponents be making this point?

Try figuring out a way to start co-ops without taking over existing firms, and you may find much less resistance. (Yes, it is possible, the Mondragon Corporation did it.) You might find that very difficult, but then you will be addressing the real problem.

Notice that if you cannot solve the problem of starting new co-ops, then even if thanks to some revolution the co-ops would take over the world, it wouldn't work in long term, because sometimes the existing ones would deteriorate and there would be no new ones to replace them.

Replies from: artemium
comment by artemium · 2022-11-28T12:54:57.462Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I was also born in a former socialist country -Yugoslavia, which was notable for the prevalence of worker-managed firms in its economy. This made it somewhat unique among other socialist countries that used a more centralized approach with state ownership over entire industries. 

While it is somewhat different than worker-owned cooperatives in modern market economies it does offer a useful data point. The general conclusion is that they work a bit better than a typical state-owned firm, but are still significantly worse in their economic performance compared to the median private company. This is the reason why despite having plenty of experience with worker-managed firms almost all ex-YU countries today have economies dominated by fully private companies and no one is really enthusiastic about repeating the worker-managed experiment.

comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T10:01:13.707Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

You make a number of causal claims that seem to be empirically based. It would be nice if your post could expand on some details of how the causal inference was performed. For instance here:

This is not only terrible for the workers but also for the economy, since businesses with engaged workers have 23% higher profit, while employees who are not engaged cost the world $7.8 trillion in lost productivity, equal to 11% of global GDP.

What data and model are these estimates of the causal effects of it based on?

Another thing that confuses me is why socialist firms need special support and don't naturally come to dominate the economy. You seem to attribute this to owners extracting value, but that seems short-sighted; presumably if you have an economy with a mixture of socialist and non-socialist firms, and the socialist firms are much more productive, they would grow quicker and become dominant over time.

Replies from: Bob Jacobs
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T10:08:53.958Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

What data and model are these estimates of the causal effects of it based on?

You can find my sources in the references section. This was based on a gallup study

Another thing that confuses me is why socialist firms need special support and don't naturally come to dominate the economy. You seem to attribute this to owners extracting value, but that seems short-sighted; presumably if you have an economy with a mixture of socialist and non-socialist firms, and the socialist firms are much more productive, they would grow quicker and become dominant over time.

I explained this in this section:

One issue that arises with starting a socialist firms is acquiring initial investing.[27] This is probably because co-ops want to maximize income (wages), not profits. They pursue the interests of their members rather than investors and may sometimes opt to increase wages instead of profits. Capitalist firms on the other hand are explicitly investor owned so investor interests will take priority.

A socialist firm can be more productive and not dominate the economy if it's hard to start a socialist firm.

Replies from: tailcalled
comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T11:43:06.885Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

You can find my sources in the references section. This was based on a gallup study

The issue is basically friction. There were several things that made your links difficult to use:

  • They were not direct links to the study, but instead i direct links to articles that talk about the study, so I had to dig further manually.
  • The articles are often big and contain lots of specific things that might not be directly relevant to your point of using it in the post. 
  • Even having opened the study, I'm still left with confusions about the methodology. It looks to me like they basically just correlated employee engagement with productivity. This is valid if employee engagement varies in a way that is uncorrelated with other factors that have a big effect on productivity, but they don't seem to justify that assumption and it doesn't seem anecdotally sensible to me. Furthermore they suggest that managers have a huge effect on employee engagement, which seems to point to a potential area where this assumption could fail. I would like to see a factor analysis containing employee engagement and a bunch of other variables before I believe it to be reasonably independent of other factors.

Now, these are questions I could study myself, so why put the burden on you? I'd say friction and scale: If everyone reading your article studies this themselves, then it is a lot of duplicated work. Meanwhile if you did the work, e.g. making sure to link directly instead of indirectly to the studies you've read, and making sure to also link to factor analyses demonstrating independence or whatever else is assumed, then the work would be only performed once, and the results of the work would be available to everyone reading the article.

One issue that arises with starting a socialist firms is acquiring initial investing.[27] This is probably because co-ops want to maximize income (wages), not profits. They pursue the interests of their members rather than investors and may sometimes opt to increase wages instead of profits. Capitalist firms on the other hand are explicitly investor owned so investor interests will take priority.

I'm not sure I understand the economics of this. If co-ops have an inherent massive growth advantage, wouldn't that outweigh the advantage capitalist firms have in giving more dividends to investors? Because while in the short term the capitalist firms would maybe give more to their investors, in the long term the co-ops would grow bigger and therefore have more money to give, even if they allocate a smaller fraction of it?

Replies from: gjm, Bob Jacobs
comment by gjm · 2022-11-27T14:11:29.338Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

It may be that this post would have been better if Ben had put a ton of extra effort into replacing links-to-links with links, and explaining everything in more detail. But this has a bit of an "isolated demand for rigor" feel to me. To be clear, I don't mean that I have compared your response to this post with your response to otherwise-similar posts with a different political slant and found a difference; it is consistent with everything I think I know for you merely to be unusually rigor-demanding across the board. But it does feel to me as if (1) you're saying that to be good enough Ben's post should have gone to a lot more effort and (2) broadly similar posts with different political leanings don't generally attract demands for that level of author-effort.

Replies from: tailcalled
comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T15:54:33.044Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

More fundamentally the reason I call out that specific section is because I strongly doubt that the "businesses with engaged workers have 23% higher profit" sentence is based on statistics that are of any nontrivial evidentiary value for whether better workers lead to more profit, and if this part of the post is totally wrong then that calls into question whether the other statistics cited in the post are similarly totally wrong.

However, in spot-checking whether the statistics were totally wrong, I found myself struggling with wading through signups and links and long mostly irrelevant articles. Of course some nonzero amount of this is likely to happen with spot-checks but it seemed like the layers of links just made it even worse.

I was about to say that maybe I handled it wrong to begin with and should have just pointed out this problem. But looking back at my original comment I think I handled it right, in just asking OP to explain what data/model it was based on; the problem is that then OP responded back with repeating the links instead of explaining what he had read in the links. But I guess my followup response to OP responding back with repeating the links might be a problem.

Replies from: Bob Jacobs
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T16:30:23.133Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

However, in spot-checking whether the statistics were totally wrong, I found myself struggling with wading through signups and links and long mostly irrelevant articles. Of course some nonzero amount of this is likely to happen with spot-checks but it seemed like the layers of links just made it even worse.


This is dishonest, the vast majority of the sources are primary scientific studies and the few times I do refer to secondary sources it isn't irrelevant.

You did handle it right, especially your deleted comment.

OP to explain what data/model it was based on; the problem is that then OP responded back with repeating the links instead of explaining what he had read in the links

Yeah, because the primary source is right there?! What value would me explaining in my second language bring to the explanation, when you can click on the link and immediately download the primary source?

Replies from: tailcalled
comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T17:22:54.605Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This is dishonest, the vast majority of the sources are primary scientific studies and the few times I do refer to secondary sources it isn't irrelevant.

I wasn't talking about the vast majority of the sources, I was talking about source 3, which turned into source 2, which turned into some other source that I had to find myself.

You did handle it right, especially your deleted comment.

My deleted comment was nearly identical to one of the non-deleted comments. It's just that I realized there was a problem with one of my comments after posting it and I needed to take some time to look at it.

Yeah, because the primary source is right there?! What value would me explaining in my second language bring to the explanation, when you can click on the link and immediately download the primary source?

The problem is that the primary source does not seem credible without additional information.

Replies from: Bob Jacobs
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T18:49:17.749Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

A spot check is supposed to take a number of random sources and check them, not pick the one claim you find most suspicious (that isn't even about co-ops) and use that to dismiss the entire literature on co-ops.

Replies from: tailcalled
comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T19:14:51.147Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

A spot check is supposed to take a number of random sources and check them, not pick the one claim you find most suspicious (that isn't even about co-ops)

There seem to be three parts to this objections:

  1. I did not spot-check sufficiently many claims
  2. I filtered the claim to spot-check based on being the most suspicious
  3. I did not filter the claims based on being about co-ops

With regards to point 1, I agree that I cannot know your accuracy very precisely without doing more checks, but the problem is that each check takes time and there are a lot of posts on the internet to read, so I have to limit how much I search.

With regards to point 2, it's not that I spot-checked the most suspicious one, rather it's that I spot-checked the first suspicious one. This is still a filter on suspiciousness, but a much weaker one. I think some filter on suspiciousness is appropriate since suspicious claims are also the ones I can learn the most from if they turn out to be true, as claims become suspicious through a combination of being unlikely and having big implications.

With regards to point 3, if you put much more effort into verifying the accuracy of your claims about co-ops than your claims about other stuff, then your accuracy on co-ops might not be that correlated with your accuracy on other stuff, and I ought to do a spot-check specifically on your claims about co-ops. I don't know if that is true. If it is true, it might also be helpful to mention it as a disclaimer in the post so people know what claims to mostly focus on.

and use that to dismiss the entire literature on co-ops.

So it's not so much that I'm dismissing the entire literature on co-ops. (Or well, I would generally dismiss any social science that I haven't done some surface checks of. But that's different from my comments here.) It's more that I'm dismissing your literature review of the literature.

comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T12:04:49.734Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
  • They were not direct links to the study, but instead i direct links to articles that talk about the study, so I had to dig further manually.


It was the second source in the post: [2]

  • The articles are often big and contain lots of specific things that might not be directly relevant to your point of using it in the post. 

There was a summary of it on the linked page itself:

Unfortunately, most employees remain disengaged at work. In fact, low engagement alone costs the global economy $7.8 trillion.
 

 

Even having opened the study, I'm still left with confusions about the methodology

From the study

Methodology

The primary data in this report come from the Gallup World Poll, through which Gallup has conducted surveys of the world’s adult population, using randomly selected samples, since 2005. The survey is administered annually face to face or by telephone, covering more than 160 countries and areas since its inception. In addition to the World Poll data, Gallup collected extensive random samples of working populations in the United States and Germany; these samples were also added to the dataset.

The target population of the World Poll is the entire civilian, noninstitutionalized, aged-15- and-older population. Gallup’s data in this report reflect the responses of adults, aged-15- and-older, who were employed for any number of hours by an employer.

With some exceptions, all samples are probability-based and nationally representative. Gallup uses data weighting to minimize bias in survey-based estimates; ensure samples are nationally representative for each country; and correct for unequal selection probability, nonresponse and double coverage of landline and mobile phone users when using both mobile phone and landline frames. Gallup also weights its final samples to match the national demographics of each selected country.

Regional findings in this report include data obtained from 2021 to as late as March 2022 (reported as part of 2021 data in this report). To determine percentage point changes for regions, Gallup uses data from 2020 and 2021 from the same countries in each region.

Country-specific findings in “Appendix 1: Country Comparisons” are based on data aggregated from three years of polling (2019, 2020 and 2021 — with several countries’ 2021 data obtained in early 2022). Percentage point changes for countries indicate the differences in percentage points when comparing the average from 2018, 2019 and 2020 with the average from 2019, 2020 and 2021.

Gallup typically surveys 1,000 individuals in each country or area, using a standard set
of core questions that has been translated into the major languages of the respective country. In some countries, Gallup collects oversamples in major cities or areas of special interest. Additionally, in some large countries, such as China and Russia, sample sizes include at least 2,000 adults. In a small number of countries, the sample size is less than 1,000. In this report, Gallup does not provide country-level data (aggregate of 2019, 2020 and 2021 data) or country-level percentage point change data (aggregate of 2018, 2019 and 2020 data) for any country that has an aggregate n size of less than 300.

For results based on the total sample of adults globally, the margin of sampling error ranged from ±0.5 percentage points to ±0.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the total sample of adults in each region, the margin of sampling error ranged from ±0.6 percentage points to ±5.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the total sample of adults in each country, the margin of sampling error ranged from ±0.5 percentage points to ±8.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

 

I'm not sure I understand the economics of this. If co-ops have an inherent massive growth advantage, wouldn't that outweigh the advantage capitalist firms have in giving more dividends to investors? Because while in the short term the capitalist firms would maybe give more to their investors, in the long term the co-ops would grow bigger and therefore have more money to give, even if they allocate a smaller fraction of it?

I never claimed a massive growth advantage:

There seems to be a small increase in companywide productivity[33]

As I said, the meta-analysis's only show a small growth advantage. If e.g a socialist firm grows with $1000 and a capitalist firm with $900, but the capitalist firm gives the $900 to the investors and the socialist firm gives $500 to both the investors and the employees, the investors can make more money with capitalist firms.
 

Replies from: tailcalled
comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T12:11:26.476Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

It was the second source in the post: [2] [LW(p) · GW(p)]

Oh I think one confusing factor was the footnote placement.

But anyway, no, this link doesn't link directly to the study either, it links to a report that links to the study. I had to go through additional links to find this document which appears to be the original source with the actual analysis.

From the study

The wall of text doesn't really answer my questions about the independence of employee engagement.

I never claimed a massive growth advantage:

Ah sorry, that's my mixup between the effects of employee engagement vs effects of co-opts.

Replies from: Bob Jacobs
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T12:24:45.115Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

But anyway, no, this link doesn't link directly to the study either, it links to a report that links to the study

You can immediately see a button that says "download report" when you click on that link. I wouldn't call that "digging for sources".

The wall of text doesn't really answer my questions about the independence of employee engagement.

Furthermore they suggest that managers have a huge effect on employee engagement, which seems to point to a potential area where this assumption could fail.

It's not independent, co-ops let you vote on managers which allows productivity to increase.

EDIT: I have apologized to (and thanked) tailcalled via messages, and have added the document as the third source. Once again, thanks for the suggestion.
 

Replies from: tailcalled
comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T15:46:44.428Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

You can immediately see a button that says "download report" when you click on that link. I wouldn't call that "digging for sources".

I have downloaded the report. When I searched for keywords from the sentence "This is not only terrible for the workers but also for the economy, since businesses with engaged workers have 23% higher profit, while employees who are not engaged cost the world $7.8 trillion in lost productivity, equal to 11% of global GDP." in the report, the main section that appeared was this:

Clearly, the COVID-19 pandemic era put a halt to a long period of gradual but general improvement among the world’s workers. This matters for global economic dynamism. Gallup estimates that low engagement costs the global economy US$7.8 trillion and accounts for 11% of GDP globally. Gallup’s analysis of 112,312 business units in 96 countries found a strong link between engagement and performance outcomes, such as retention, productivity, safety and profitability

The other potentially relevant section that appeared was this:

Business units with engaged workers have 23% higher profit compared with business units with miserable workers.

Neither of these sections give any idea of how Gallup came to the conclusion, but the link in the first section contains a link to a different document that probably forms the foundation/primary source for their analysis.

It's not independent

I mean if the independence of employee engagement doesn't hold, then the causal inference doesn't go through, and you can't infer that engagement has this much effect on productivity...

co-ops let you vote on managers which allows productivity to increase.

... however this sounds like a different form of independence than the one I brought up.

comment by Linch · 2022-11-27T22:48:26.907Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Apologies if I misunderstood your argument.

  1. You open your argument with saying, in essence, that people hate their jobs and are miserable at their jobs.
  2. You then argue that socialist firms are better for employees.
  3. The logical inference here would be that socialist firms make for happier employees.

Is this a reasonable summary?

However, in the "Are socialist firms good for employees?" section, you do not give much evidence that workers in socialist firms are significantly happier. Instead, the paragraph says things like:

Giving employees stock in a company seems to boost their performance.[33] [LW(p) · GW(p)] Research has shown that employees getting more ownership of the company is associated with higher trust, perception of fairness, information sharing and cooperation.[34] [LW(p) · GW(p)] There seems to be a small increase in companywide productivity[33] [LW(p) · GW(p)], while employee retention is boosted.[35] [LW(p) · GW(p)] Perhaps capitalist firms could slowly be eased into becoming socialist firms by first giving the employees more stakes in the company and then expanding their participation rights.

These things, while maybe valuable, does not give that much overall evidence for life satisfaction or happiness.

Overall I am not sold that your argument-as-stated is sound, even if every individual piece of evidence is true.

comment by Dagon · 2022-11-28T19:56:41.705Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I was about to just downvote and move on, but there are enough comments and votes that it seemed worth figuring out why I object.

I think I don't object to the concept.  Go for it!  Make whatever form or organizational governance you like.  Presuming you don't try to force others to use these mechanisms, it's a fine thing.  If it's actually better, it will grow and become more common.

I am curious what you think is the reason that it isn't very common (or exists at all) in successful organizations - whether for-profit, non-profit, or social, all of the ones I know are hierarchically organized.  Many have procedures for changing the leadership, but I know of no successful organizations that are socialist in behavior or decision-making.

Which brings me to my primary objections to socialism generally - it always seems to start by claiming/nationalizing/taking a bunch of stuff from people who don't necessarily want it.  Without that problem, I'm perfectly fine with it.  Oh, and as long as exit is easy - the other commonality with socialist regimes (AFAIK) is how hard it is to leave, and to be capitalist if you want.

Replies from: Viliam
comment by Viliam · 2022-11-28T20:54:53.046Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Many have procedures for changing the leadership, but I know of no successful organizations that are socialist in behavior or decision-making.

Ownership is not the same as leadership. For example, you could own 1/N shares of the company you work at, try using them at the shareholder meeting to influence the future of the company, maybe even try to replace the CEO... but when then shareholder meeting is over, you become just another cog in the machine for the rest of the year, except that you also get 1/N of a part of profit at the end of the year as a bonus.

If I remember it correctly, Mondragon Corporation has regular elections, where employees elect a supervisory board, which appoints the CEO, who basically directs the company in the classical top-down way. The supervisory board can replace the CEO at any moment. The employees can elect a new supervisory board at specified time intervals. (Not sure I remember it exactly.) Leaving is not a problem; they even pay you your fraction of the company value. This ironically makes joining a potential problem, because you need to buy your share of the company, but the company can lend you the money that you later pay back via income deductions.

Replies from: Dagon
comment by Dagon · 2022-11-28T21:08:38.323Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Cool, TIL.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mondragon_Corporation looks pretty cool.  

On long enough timeframes, ownership determines leadership.  If you own 1/N of a company, for a very large N, you don't have much control, but the group of you which own a large amount does have a whole lot of influence over management and decision-making.  You're absolutely right, though, the OP should have specified both entry and exit mechanisms, and relative quantities of ownership to qualify as "socialist".  

One could argue that every public company is socialist - ownership is open to anyone who can spend a few hours wages on shares of stock.  I suspect that wouldn't make the cut for this post.  What DOES identify a socialist ownership or management of a corporation or other changing- and voluntary-membership organization?

Of key importance: how are allocation decisions made (i.e. should this year's profit be distributed to past contributors/owners, workers (recent workers in retroactive bonus, current workers in higher pay or instantaneous bonus, or future workers in higher pay bands and more hiring), or reinvested in equipment upgrades)?  

Replies from: Slider, Viliam
comment by Slider · 2022-11-29T16:05:00.341Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

It is typical to buy the stock of a company for the dividends or the growth of value of the stocks. In order to activate the "socialist mode" of such open stock arrangement somebody outside the company would buy stock in order to influence work conditions to be more humane just for the sake of promoting sensible working conditions. In some company forms this is forbidden. Making idealist decisions that hurt the bottom line that are not even trying to indirectly increase profits runs afoul of the structure of a money making machine. For-profits run into trouble if they have genuine non-profit activities. Law likens that to fraud of majority shareholders towards the minority shareholders rather than arbitrary usage of property.

One could offcourse dissolve a company and start a non-profit with the same assest. But it highlights that you can't creep into non-profit bit by bit but a for-profit remains a for-profit as long as it stands. Conceptually, you need to spend those funds as a consumer for ideological effects.

Replies from: Dagon
comment by Dagon · 2022-11-29T18:02:53.576Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I notice I'm confused.  Converting an existing corporation to socialist mode would mean buying out ALL the stock (presumably by or at least for the employees), wouldn't it?  As you point out, a mixed-ownership model, where some shareholders think they are owed profits, and some shareholder-workers think they are owed non-profit-benefits is going to anger some or both groups.

No way for the corporation as a unit to partly convert, but presumably workers could buy/spin-off/create SMALLER units out of the corporation.  Or, as so often seems to be the assumption in these conversations, since capital has no value or claim to revenue, just walk away from it and start their own.

I also notice that I've been mind-killed - I want to steelman and understand the appeal and gears-level workings of this organizational principle, but I'm failing.  I apologize, and am bowing out of this conversation.  Feel free to rebut anything I've written, I'll read but not respond.

Replies from: Slider
comment by Slider · 2022-11-29T21:03:51.528Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

If you get the corporation to dissolve then you could use the share that your shares entitle you to take control of only that part of the whole thing. If some parts are more human-involved then the non-human involved parts might not be desirable in the new organization. Ie have 60% of the stock, force dissolution outcome, keep/buy all the employement relations with your share and try to negotiate for the 40% to run away with the money and steel. If ideological stock remains a minority voice then the profit side can just choose to keep intact. If it is especailly clean it might just result in a "split" (rather than a fusion) of 40% of the operations keeping to the for-profit order and could even keep operations in tact. In super peaceful conditions the 60% could even keep customer relations to the 40% where a total break is not possible.

Corporations typically get distrubed if random parts of them need to be reset so the price to buy out random parts is probably a bit more what it would "objectively" be. Degree of ideological fervor might make it okay for the new establishers to take losses. Keeping your parts dependent means this kind of distruption happens less often. If everybody works to subsistence all the time then this threshold can never be met. And it is typical for the part to be benefitting the whole. There the old order is not ambivalent but a bit against part removal (lost profits are lost profits after all). And like you can't operate 0.1 of a powerplant there is a coordination problem for enough people to detach at the same time to form a sensible new unit before anybody can leave. Competition proofs often require no barriers to entry, reorganization tends to not be a free action so spontanoues fission is not seen.

A pure hunter-gatherer could try to detach from society by only gathering food for themself. Having job specialization is more efficient per unit of work. But having a specialization and hunter-gatherer capability is wasteful. So we find people that have the specializiation but have lost or never developed the hunter-gatherer capability (and there is a outcompeting version of this argument). Then you are at the mercy of what other people have chosen as their specialization on what your wealth is and don't have the moving room to be optimizing it. At will and all but if you only can function in the niche but can't form your niches, it isn't super relevant. Being free to go starve with your sucking hunter skills doesn't prove that obligatory group activities would dismantle if they were too bad. If there is enough slack to have 10 minutes a day to learn over a year to be non-starving hunter then niche construction can be exercised by having a significantly worse standard of living. But in a sense this is inventing the wheel again just to avoid being commanded by others. Rather you want to find other people that are also fed up with their niches (which can potentially be very different) and then jump straight to a big group oblicatory activity with more comfortable niches. The deeper your specialization the more you are dependent on a bigger outside social order to be static and can expect it to respond slower to your changing needs. The bigger the changing units the bigger the chaos to move from one order to the next. This even if there was nobody orchestrating it. You could have people deliberately orchestrating it. But there is the danger that people with little room to move are easy to organize and some could organize the relations to the benefit of the organizer or society as a whole instead of the ones being organized. If the organizer is doing a bad job or is doing a too self-serving a job the cogs can only squeal. Like being symphatetic for slaves easily turns to hoping that none was a slave, people should not be myopic about the their role in society and helping the cogs involves making sure that they can do more than "just their job". And it seems if an agents freedom is predicated on another agent not having freedom the result is going to be constant straife. If your money is predicated on me not having money this is an arrangment that can not withstand prosperity.

comment by Viliam · 2022-11-29T13:18:12.641Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

One could argue that every public company is socialist - ownership is open to anyone who can spend a few hours wages on shares of stock.  I suspect that wouldn't make the cut for this post.  What DOES identify a socialist ownership or management of a corporation or other changing- and voluntary-membership organization?

I think an important part is that the interests of all employees are (hypothetically) aligned. So even if you only own 1/1000 of the company, the remaining 999 shareholders also vote for the things you want. As opposed to your example when someone buys 1/1000 of the company, but has no impact on the outcomes, because the remaining 999/1000 votes are incompatible.

Replies from: Dagon
comment by Dagon · 2022-11-29T15:04:44.286Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Wow.  I have to admit I hadn't heard that dimension before, and I'm not sure I get it.  Humans are generally not aligned, especially on the level of who gets what jobs and how much they get paid.  Does that mean it's impossible in the real world?  Or do I completely miss your point?

Replies from: gbear605, Viliam
comment by gbear605 · 2022-11-29T15:22:24.741Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Workers at a business are generally more aligned with each other than they are with the shareholders of the business. For example, if the company is debating a policy that has a 51% chance of doubling profit and a 49% chance of bankrupting the company, I would expect most shareholders to be in favor (since it's positive EV for them). But for worker-owners, that's a 49% chance of losing their job and a 51% chance of increasing salary but not doubling (since it's profit that is doubling, not revenue, and their salaries are part of the expenses), so I would expect them to be against the policy.

The same goes for things like policies around worker treatment - if a proposed policy would increase profit by 10% but make workers have a much more unpleasant environment, shareholders would probably vote in favor while worker-owners would vote against.

Obviously there are some shareholders who would go against their profit motive for improving the lives of stakeholders (see ESG funds), and workers who would choose a chance for more money over better working conditions or a lower chance of lowing their job. But I would generally expect the two groups to disagree with each other but be aligned internally.

Replies from: Dagon
comment by Dagon · 2022-11-29T17:23:08.103Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I always like it when I can upvote and disagree :) 

I think you have to be in VERY far mode, and still squint a bit, to think of that as "alignment" to the degree that distinguishes socialist from conventional organizations.  Sure, employees as a group will prefer higher median wages over more profits (though maybe not if they're actual owners to a great degree), but I have yet to see a large organization where workers care all that much about other workers (distant ones, with different roles, who compete for prestige and compensation even while cooperating for  delivery).  

Conventional org owners/leaders care a lot about worker retention and productivity, which is often summarized as "satisfaction".  I have seen no evidence in my <mumble> years at companies big and small, including both tech and non-tech workers that office workers care more about warehouse workers than senior management does.  There is probably slightly more for warehouse workers caring about workers in other warehouses, but even then, there's cut-throat hatred for closing "my" warehouse rather than someone else's.

Replies from: Slider
comment by Slider · 2022-11-29T21:32:32.338Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Without the qualifier "different roles" I had in mind that you can privately not like peeing into to a bottle to be pretty well correlated with your coworker also not liking it without you considering each other.

And then when I apply the same about office workers thinking about warehouse workers peeing in bottles it seems they would not be ambivalent but slightly against.

While it is quite easy to see a manager wanting a policy that has 10% number increase and no numeric effect on any other number to be default in favour.

In reverse this can be seen that a worker is unnaturally insulated about the meangingfulness of their task. Moving boxes day in day out probably feels very samey, while a manager can see that now we are serving this nationality people and now that. Or indeed that with no increase customers per worker might be 10 and with 10% increase we have 11 customers per worker. And offcourse customers have a difficult time telling whether their packages were done pee-bottle-free.

While workers are not especially knowledgeable they are uniquely situated for certain kinds of information. So even if they are not especially homogenous the dimensions on which they base opinions on are probably the same. Also if you know you are powerless it is easy to not care. If you are an office worker and know you do or could have a say, "pee bottles in my company" activates accountability differently. If you are not so situated you will probably frame is as "their company", "company I work at", "Big dude that breaths into my neck is equally asshole to those guys too".

comment by Viliam · 2022-11-29T18:33:24.202Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

If workers own the company, they might agree on more vacation, no unpaid overtime, better working conditions, etc. These would be the shared preferences.

If someone else owns the company, they will typically want a CEO who squeezes out of the company as much profit as possible. Everything else is purely instrumental. Yeah, it might happen that giving people more vacation is good for attracting talent that generates more profit, in which case the company might also decide to provide more vacation. Or maybe the CEO decides that vacation is irrelevant, or should only be given to people working at certain selected positions. Basically, from the perspective of a worker it is mostly random, but more often bad news.

If you are one of 1000 workers, and you own 1/1000 of the company... but other workers did not buy shares, so 999/1000 of the company is owned by someone who doesn't work there, do not expect the company to be any nicer to you than is strictly necessary.

EDIT: After reading your other comment...

I think that people are more likely to empathize with people in a similar role than with people in a different role. As an "individual contributor" myself, I find it natural to empathize with people who have to do overtime and hate it. But who knows, maybe in a parallel world where I am a manager, I empathize with managers who get frustrated with the lazy bastards who prioritize their family and hobbies over getting their boss a well-deserved bonus.

But even if I had zero empathy towards people in a similar role, arguing for the benefits of everyone is a Schelling point. I can get more support for "more vacation for everyone" than for "more vacation for Viliam".

comment by Vaniver · 2022-11-27T22:10:47.656Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

My guess is that the main application area this should be investigated for is promotion / facilitation in developing countries. [I don't see an obviously good way to shift US/European policy to promote this, and would rather limited reform effort be spent towards something like land use / permitting / voting reform. EA organizations are generally either non-profits (where making them 'co-op's seems unlikely to have large effects) or for-profits where limiting the upside to owners is probably undesirable (since the for-profit's EA value is typically earning to give / it being easy to hire non-EA workers for a company with EA owners).]

Some scattered thoughts as trailheads:

  • Most of the evidence base is probably in developed countries, and so it makes sense to run more experiments / figure out which conditions favor co-ops. [The traditional 'family firm' / 'corporate family' is, in many ways, a co-op, just with a much higher barrier to entry.]
  • Legal agreements are harder to execute and trust, especially at lower levels of wealth. [See The Mystery of Capital for more.] Having boilerplate co-op formation agreements (or administrative support for forming co-ops) for various countries will probably touch one of the main pain points for creating them.
  • Management consulting firms tend to be more effective in developing countries than developed ones (as they're more likely to be able to point out a 'basic' principle or practice that the managers would have picked up in business school in the developed world, but is not common practice in the developing country). It might be possible to find (or found) such a firm focused on doing consulting in developing countries, and have them push formation as a co-op. [My guess is it's easier to get entrepreneurs to form new businesses in a new format than reform existing businesses as them, but this is an empirical question that's worth checking.] This might also be a good laboratory for random assignment (noting that you can only randomize whether you advise they become a co-op, not whether they actually do, and places where it's a worse idea might be more resistant).
  • Relatedly, one of the big transitions is from 'owner as whip-cracker' to 'owner as optimizer' (see here [LW(p) · GW(p)] for more); it may be that co-ops have an easier time with this than traditional firms, and this gives them a more substantial edge in places where that transition is incomplete. [Given that this is both a cultural and a financial change, my guess is this edge is actually not that large; Taylor is pretty clear on incentives needing to be individual to have the largest effect.]
  • It might be possible to set up a microlending program that focuses on creating co-ops, or partially buying out existing owners to donate stake to the workers. [I imagine a core challenge here is that workers are not going to be excited about the risk associated with being in a co-op, and it takes some external energy source to get over the activation barrier here.]
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-28T08:57:34.868Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Sorry guys. I woke up to another giant batch of new comments and I just don't have the time or energy to respond to them all with the quality that I would want. My comments were already getting shorter and shorter while my longer, more nuanced comments were getting sniped before I could post them. I'm sure some of you made some excellent points.

comment by Vaniver · 2022-11-27T22:13:09.311Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

re: whether socialist firms work, I think the main problem is going to be managers making worse decisions because they're more blended with the interests of labor. For example, a firm where decisions are made by the workers-as-a-whole probably wants to pay workers according to their average product instead of their marginal product, but this means they'll hire too few workers (as average product is larger than marginal product, and so the 'last workers' are more expensive in the average-product firm).

comment by David Johnston (david-johnston) · 2022-11-27T22:01:57.178Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Why don’t you cross post to the EA forum, by the way?

comment by jmh · 2022-11-28T18:41:57.507Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I've not read much in this area and have not even tried to follow through on the references provided in the OP. I'm open to being told I should have as some directly address my comment.

I think the big question to ask here, if one is advocating expanding the "socialist firm" (quotes since that can refer to a number of somewhat different structures) is conditions in which those forms are superior to the normal corporate structure. In other words, given all these forms exist in the current economic landscape the claim seems to be that we're out of equilibrium and marginal adjustments will produce a better equilibrium position.

comment by Viliam · 2022-11-27T22:32:13.863Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

One issue that arises with starting a socialist firms is acquiring initial investing. This is probably because co-ops want to maximize income (wages), not profits. They pursue the interests of their members rather than investors and may sometimes opt to increase wages instead of profits. Capitalist firms on the other hand are explicitly investor owned so investor interests will take priority.

This does not explain e.g. why we do not have more software development co-ops. The costs of starting a new software company are not that high, and a group of experienced software developers should have decent savings. They already own the means of production, i.e. their brains and notebooks, and they can rent the other necessary resources from Amazon. Thanks to remote work, they do not even have to live in the same city.

By the way, you seem to suggest that a capitalist investor is able to prioritize long-term wealth over immediate consumption, but the co-op employees are not. Not even when all the benefits of working at a co-op are at stake, and they know that if the co-op fails, they will have to return to their previous open spaces and agile meetings. Why is that so?

Replies from: gbear605
comment by gbear605 · 2022-11-27T22:58:07.656Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I think the biggest issue in software development is the winner-takes-all position with many internet businesses. For the business to survive, you have to take the whole market, which means you need to have lots of capital to expand quickly, which means you need venture capital. It's the same problem that self-funded startups have. People generally agree that self-funded startups are better to work at, but they can't grow quite as fast as VC-funded startups and lose the race. But that doesn't apply outside of the software sphere (which is why VC primarily focuses on software startups).

Beyond that, they're just not that well known as an option in the US, and all of the narrative is about venture capital based startups, so founders haven't considered co-ops as an option. Despite that I am aware of a few software co-ops (primarily consultancies, since they don't have the large capital needs).

comment by Danielle Ensign (phylliida-dev) · 2022-11-27T22:29:22.437Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I highly recommend this video for those wanting a more detailed analysis of the pros and cons of worker co-ops

comment by David Johnston (david-johnston) · 2022-11-27T21:59:05.086Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

My first thought: there’s a sliding scale between worker ownership and investor ownership and it might be much more tractable to increase the share of worker ownership than to increase the number of 100% worker owned firms.

My second thought: if the benefits of worker ownership are due to superior governance, maybe increasing worker ownership should go along with weighing interests of different agents via geometric expectation maximisation [? · GW]

Replies from: Viliam
comment by Viliam · 2022-11-27T22:14:49.889Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Startups sometimes offer shares to their early employees, but it seems to me this is usually some kind of scam. Or maybe "scam" is an unnecessarily harsh word, but it is definitely a form of "it does not mean what you assume it means, and I strategically do not correct your misconceptions which are obvious to me".

Only a smart fraction of startups sells for millions, but when they do, only a small fraction of employees who own shares actually gets rich. Most often they find out that their shares are some special kind of shares (different than the ones owned by the CEO), and therefore... blah blah... they are practically worthless. Or they find out that the shares were so diluted that although the company grew 1000×, the value of the shares did not. Etc., I am sure new tricks to make employee shares worthless are being invented every day.

So, I guess a campaign to make co-ops more attractive should include an explanation why current employee shares are for all practical purposes not a form of worker ownership.

comment by Tenoke · 2022-11-27T11:10:15.740Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I'm impressed how modern EAs manage to spin any cause into being supposedly EA.

There's just no way that things like this are remotely as effective as say GiveWell causes (though it wouldn't even meet a much lower bar) and it barely even has longtermist points for it that can make me see why there's at least a chance it could be worth it.

EA's whlole brand is massively diluted by all these causes and I don't think they are remotely as effective as other places where your money can go, nor that they help the general message.

It's like people get into EA, realize it's a good idea but then want to participate in the community and not just donate so everyone tries to come up with new clearly ineffective (compared to alternatives) causes and spin them as EA.

Replies from: gjm, Bob Jacobs
comment by gjm · 2022-11-27T13:13:25.224Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The article mentions EA exactly twice. One is to quote the "80,000 hours" figure. The other is at the end, suggesting that EA organizations should consider adopting the sort of structure the article argues for.

Neither of these things claims, or implies, or even suggests, that shifting firms to a worker-cooperative model is an "EA" cause in the sense of being a more effective thing to do with money than, say, feeding starving poor people or preventing cheaply-preventable disease or (for those who favour such things) trying to increase the probability that some time in the future there are a billion trillion gazillion happy satisfied productive people.

(I don't know whether Ben is correct about worker cooperatives being a better organizational structure in general. I don't know whether EA organizations are similar enough to other businesses that this would indicate it's a good structure for them. But if it is a good structure for them, they should consider using it even if persuading others to adopt it isn't an efficient use of money.)

Replies from: Jiro
comment by Jiro · 2022-11-30T22:04:56.042Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

What else could the "as a cause" in "socialist firms as a cause area" possibly mean, except "as an EA cause"? The title wouldn't make sense if it just meant "as a cause, but not as any particular kind of cause", and the only particular type of cause being discussed is EA.

I also don't think that "alleviating misery" in this context can mean anything other than "alleviating misery, because you are EAs and EAs want to get rid of misery".

Replies from: gjm
comment by gjm · 2022-11-30T23:11:10.738Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I agree that "cause" here means "thing people trying to improve the world might want to consider putting time, money and/or effort into". I don't think it means "thing that is likely to be better in good done per dollar used than GiveWell's top recommendations".

If I wanted to spend money on making more firms be co-ops, I don't even know how I'd do it. It doesn't look to me as if the goal of this post is to recommend spending money on making more firms be co-ops.

My reading of the "conclusions and policies" section of the post is than Ben is saying two things: 1. It would be nice if there were more co-ops. 2. EA organizations might want to consider co-op structures.

I don't think #1 is intended to say "... and therefore EAs should be sending their charitable donations to organizations lobbying for there to be more co-ops"; I think it's just a wouldn't-it-be-nice-if. I think #2 is intended to suggest something EAs might want to do, but if Ben's right then doing it wouldn't compete with other things they do but would help those things. (I have no strong opinion on whether Ben is, in fact, right about this.)

Now, to be clear, I am not Ben and I don't speak for him. Maybe he did mean more than that; maybe he does think that people wanting to give to EA causes should be sending some of their money to organizations doing co-op advocacy or something of the sort. If so, I agree that that's unlikely to be as effective in good-done-per-dollar than, say, antimalarial bednets.

So if he didn't mean that, was "... as a cause" a bad choice of phrasing, as Tenoke says? Not necessarily. I think the diagnosis at the end of Tenoke's comment is probably right: people get into EA, want to do things as well as giving money, and come up with other things to do. But Tenoke evidently thinks that's clearly bad; I don't. Effort isn't fungible in quite the way money is. If Ben is more excited by co-ops than by bednets, his donations should probably still go to bednets[1], but his time might be more effectively spent on co-ops because people are much more effective doing things they're excited by. (And because no one is required to spend all their time on maximally-efficient charitable things.)

[1] I don't mean necessarily literal bednets, of course; that's shorthand for "plausibly near-maximally efficient charitable causes" and there's plenty of scope for disagreement about what those are.

I'm not sure Tenoke's wrong about "as a cause" being misleading here. I stand by what I originally said about those words not implying or suggesting that co-ops are most effective per dollar. But maybe using those words has funky subconscious effects similar to suggesting that, even if no one would claim that co-ops are most effective per dollar if asked explicitly, or maybe it attracts the eye of EAs in a way it doesn't deserve to, or something. But Tenoke's apparent indignation at those words seems way over the top to me.

comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T11:29:32.328Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

There's just no way that things like this are remotely as effective as say GiveWell causes

Do you have any evidence for this?

and it barely even has longtermist points

Not all EA's are longtermists.

Replies from: Tenoke
comment by Tenoke · 2022-11-27T12:42:19.238Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Do you have any evidence for this?

My prior is that other things are less effective and you need evidence to show they are more effective not vice versa.

Not all EA's are longtermists.

Of course. I'm saying it doesn't even get to make that argument which can sometimes muddy the waters enough to make some odd-seeming causes look at least plausibly effective.

Replies from: Bob Jacobs
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T17:10:37.755Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

My prior is that other things are less effective and you need evidence to show they are more effective not vice versa.

Appeal to presuppositions always feels weird to me. A socialist could just as easily say 'my priors say the opposite'. In any case, you made a claim of comparison, not me, why is the burden of proof suddenly on me?

Of course. I'm saying it doesn't even get to make that argument which can sometimes muddy the waters enough to make some odd-seeming causes look at least plausibly effective.

I'm trying to explain the scientific literature on co-ops, not persuade you of some scam.

comment by Aiyen · 2022-11-27T16:04:41.580Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This is not a place for politics. It is especially not a place for politics that have consistently led to catastrophe. The uncharitable reading of this post is that it is simply ignoring the harms of socialism, which is a trivial error of rationality. The charitable reading is that it is proposing a new take on socialism which could actually be beneficial. However, explaining such a point and answering the inevitable objections requires a long political discussion on a board that was explicitly created to avoid such things, due to their tendency to make rationality much harder.

If the charitable reading is correct, this might be an interesting debate, and even perhaps one where we could all learn something. But this simply isn’t the forum for it.

Replies from: gjm, tailcalled
comment by gjm · 2022-11-27T17:24:48.077Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

As tailcalled says, there's really not much overlap between what this post is advocating and what led to (e.g.) millions of deaths under Stalin.

This post is about a way a business can voluntarily choose to organize itself that might lead to better outcomes. The thing that has led to a lot of catastrophes is a way a nation can organize itself which, in practice, has only ever happened as a result of violent revolutions. (Other sorts of socialism have arisen democratically and these have not led to catastrophe; e.g., the Scandinavian countries are pretty good places to live.)

Replies from: Aiyen
comment by Aiyen · 2022-11-27T17:41:25.422Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Surely the good or bad effects of socialism are a function of policy?  Whether or not a policy arises democratically and/or revolutionarily does not change the policy itself.  This is a striking non-sequitur.  

The Scandinavian countries are indeed pretty good places to live.  This likely has nothing to do whatsoever with democracy per se, but with the fact that the Scandinavian model does not regulate to anything resembling more strongly socialist nations, despite the fact that they famously have a large welfare system.  There is no casual mechanism whereby voting for a leader would make the policies of that leader better-though obviously a leader that harmed the people in legible-to-them ways might get voted out!  But that would be democracy changing policy, not democracy making a given policy better.  As a real-world test case, consider the Maduro regime in Venezuela.  While his democratic bona fides are somewhat questionable (there are people who think he stole his election from Juan Guaido), he certainly had enough popular support to be a serious candidate.  And that did not prevent his policies from having predictably impoverishing results on Venezuela.  

Replies from: gjm, Slider
comment by gjm · 2022-11-27T21:55:20.908Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

(Preliminary note: I see you've had a lot of downvotes in this thread; none of them is from me.)

I agree that whether a policy is good or bad doesn't depend on how it arises, but what other policies come along with it may do. For instance, so far as I can tell socialism as such doesn't need to involve much in the way of totalitarianism, but governments brought in by revolutions tend to be totalitarianism whether they are left or right or something else. At least some of the harms of e.g. communism in the USSR seem to me to have been consequences of totalitarianism more than of economic policies as such.

In any case -- my apologies if I wasn't clear enough about this -- the democracy-versus-revolution thing was not my main point; my main point was that there is a big difference between (say) Soviet communism (a way of running a whole country) and workers' cooperatives (a way of running a company), and this difference seems highly relevant to the question of whether the disastrousness of the USSR tells us anything about the likely consequences of organizing more companies as workers' cooperatives.

A nation isn't really much like a business, despite occasional rhetoric along those lines from politicians when the policies they prefer for other reasons happen to have the shape of "run the country more like a business". And a workers' cooperative isn't much like a communist or socialist country. If you think that running a company as a cooperative makes it more likely to fail in ways parallel to ways in which communist countries commonly fail, then I think you should show your working: explain how the relevant parallels work. (Including, in particular, explaining why you think such a company is more like Venezuela or the USSR than it is like, say, Sweden.)

(Why did I mention the democracy-versus-revolution thing at all? Because it seems to me that the most plausible ways of ending up with more workers' cooperatives are more democracy-like than revolution-like, and e.g. it doesn't seem likely to me that workers' cooperatives will have much tendency to end up being totalitarian. And, in fact, so far as I can tell actual workers' cooperatives don't tend to be totalitarian.)

comment by Slider · 2022-11-27T21:44:32.071Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Scandinavian people think that socialism is a functional gear in having the Nordic model work. However the understandings are so different that the word "socialism" means very different things across the pond. Too little socialism and you have obvious downsides like not having universal healthcare and much distrust among population.

When a country has big tradition of tempering market forces the knowledge tends to be way more practical than "boogieman" understanding. Even if some party doesn't want to call such balancing acts by particular names they have been around and are not "new".

comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T16:07:06.938Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Aren't socialist co-ops a totally different kind of socialism from the stuff that has "consistently led to catastrophe"?

Replies from: Viliam, Aiyen
comment by Viliam · 2022-11-27T22:17:31.343Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Then we probably should not use the same word.

comment by Aiyen · 2022-11-27T16:13:30.668Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Hence the charitable reading that the OP might be calling for a different version of socialism that might conceivably be beneficial. My point isn’t that there’s zero chance that he’s right; my point is that there’s no way to say “hey, let’s do this thing that’s superficially similar to catastrophic policies” without it either not conveying useful information, or that useful information requiring a long political debate to hash out. And that’s not appropriate for the “Politics is the mind-killer, let’s improve our rationality on easier cases” forum. I’d welcome the post and subsequent debate on e.g. a Scott Alexander forum or comment section. But this isn’t the place for it.

Replies from: tailcalled
comment by tailcalled · 2022-11-27T16:17:36.700Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Aren't these obviously, non-subtly different from the stuff that has consistently led to catastrophe? Or am I missing some similarity? (I have to admit that I'm somewhat weak on the relevant history, so it's possible I'm missing some obvious deep similarity.)

Replies from: Aiyen
comment by Aiyen · 2022-11-27T17:10:12.348Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

At least one critical similarity is that this plan relies on people ignoring economic incentives, and tries to handwave this away by pretending that people will cooperate in the face of free rider dynamics in the hopes of future payoffs. If that was true, game theory would be a lot simpler.

Are you on Data Secrets Lox? That is much more the place for this sort of discussion, and it would let us talk about whatever you like without transgressing the no politics board.

Replies from: Bob Jacobs
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T17:23:16.657Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I’m not handwaving anything I wrote a whole section about how experiments contradict this and what could explain this:

“Experiments have shown that people randomly allocated to do tasks in groups where they can elect their leaders and/or choose their pay structures are more productive than those who are led by an unelected manager who makes pay choices for them.[20] One study looked at real firms with high levels of worker ownership of shares in the company and found that workers are keener to monitor others, making them more productive than those with low or no ownership of shares and directly contradicting the free rider hypothesis.[21] It turns out there are potential benefits to giving workers control and a stake in the running of the organization they work for. This allows workers to play a key role in decision making and reorient the goals of the organization.[22] One explanation for this phenomenon is that of "localized knowledge". According to economist Friedrich Hayek, top-down organizers have difficulty harnessing and coordinating around local knowledge, and the policies they write that are the same across a wide range of circumstances don't account for the "particular circumstances of time and place".[23] (For examples of this, read Seeing Like a State by political scientist James Scott) Those who make the top-down policies in a traditional company are different to those who have to follow them. In addition, those who manage the company are most often different to those who own the company. These groups have different incentives and accumulate different knowledge. This means that co-ops have two main advantages:

Workers can harness their collective knowledge to make running the firm more effective. Workers can use their voting power to ensure the organization is more aligned with their values. Interestingly enough, I have yet to come across a co-op that uses the state of the art of social choice theory, so they could potentially get a lot lot better.“

Replies from: Aiyen
comment by Aiyen · 2022-11-27T17:57:41.898Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The specific handwave I'm referring to is Amartya Sen's. 

"In the case of the free rider hypothesis, these 'rational fools' act based on such a narrow conception of self-interest that they don't take into account the obviously damaging long-term consequences of their behavior, both to the firm and ultimately to themselves. Normal, reasonable people - who are different to rational economic man - are usually happy to put efforts into a collective endeavor that will deliver benefits for them in the long run, even if that means foregoing some short-term gains."

This sounds like it would predict that people reliably cooperate on prisoner's dilemmas, and pick stag in stag hunts.  In reality, of course, that's not a thing!  Cooperation exists, but tends to require coordination mechanisms.  Worse, it sounds like it's advocating an incoherent decision theory.  While there are certainly times where it's wise to make a choice that isn't the best in the most narrow, myopic possible sense (Newcomb's problem is the obvious example, or superrationality dynamics), that's very different than putting efforts into collective endeavor in the hopes of collective success.  

The evidence you cite is interesting, though Lao Mein's evidence suggests it isn't a slam dunk.  But Sen is committing a fallacy here, and the same fallacy as was often used in support of socialist regimes.  As such, it's a valid answer to tailcalled's question. 

Replies from: Bob Jacobs
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T18:17:53.243Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I cite four different studies that show that the theory doesn't match the observations, Lao Mein doesn't cite anything. This is the most extreme version of being a selective skeptic.

Replies from: Aiyen
comment by Aiyen · 2022-11-27T18:34:53.617Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

He cites the observation that socialized firms have not taken over the economy.  That's clearly true and clearly relevant.  Your response was that you'd already explained why socialized firms might not take over even if they were productive.  What were those reasons again?  Reviewing your post, it looks like it might be the difficulty of gaining investment and brain drain from the most productive workers leaving, but both of those reasons would be strong arguments against socialization.  Rose Wrist's ideas for gaining investment anyway are interesting, but until socialized firms actually do raise enough funding to compete, saying that they theoretically maybe can sounds remarkably hollow.  

The point of evidence is to see things that are more likely under one hypothesis than another.  In the world where socialized firms are better, I do not expect to see them failing to take over.  In the world where they are not, I do expect that it's possible to generate arbitrarily long lists of pro-socialism citations.  

The strength of a case depends on the strength of the evidence, not on the number of citations!

Replies from: Bob Jacobs
comment by B Jacobs (Bob Jacobs) · 2022-11-27T18:57:35.712Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I cited controlled experiments, you counter with an observation that I have already responded to in both the post and the comments:

I explained this in this section:

One issue that arises with starting a socialist firms is acquiring initial investing.[27] [LW(p) · GW(p)] This is probably because co-ops want to maximize income (wages), not profits. They pursue the interests of their members rather than investors and may sometimes opt to increase wages instead of profits. Capitalist firms on the other hand are explicitly investor owned so investor interests will take priority.

A socialist firm can be more productive and not dominate the economy if it's hard to start a socialist firm.

 

The strength of a case depends on the strength of the evidence, not on the number of citations!

You are not engaging with the evidence I cited.