jacobjacob's Shortform Feed

post by jacobjacob · 2019-07-23T02:56:35.132Z · score: 15 (2 votes) · LW · GW · 17 comments

What it says on the tin.

17 comments

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comment by jacobjacob · 2019-08-01T10:57:47.325Z · score: 22 (8 votes) · LW · GW

I edited a transcript of a 1.5h conversation, and it was 10.000 words. That's roughly 1/8 of a book. Realising that a day of conversations can have more verbal content than half a book(!) seems to say something about how useless many conferences are, and how incredibly useful they could be.

comment by Viliam · 2019-08-08T20:37:13.140Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

In conversation, you can adjust your speech to your partner. Don't waste time explaining things they already know; but don't skip over things they don't. Find examples and metaphors relevant to their work. Etc.

When talking to a group of people, everyone is at a different place, so no matter how you talk, it will be suboptimal for some of them. Some will be bored, some will misunderstand parts. Some parts will be uninteresting for some of them.

comment by jacobjacob · 2019-08-09T10:56:01.318Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Yup. I think it follows that when people do talk to groups in that way, they're not primarily aiming to communicate useful information in an optimal manner (if they were, there'd be better ways). They must be doing something else.

Plausible candidates are: building common knowledge [LW · GW] and signalling of various kinds .

comment by Viliam · 2019-08-14T21:39:38.369Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Just because talking to a group is not optimal for an average group member, it could still be close to optimal for some of them (the audience that the speaker had in mind when preparing the speech), and could maximize the total knowledge -- as a toy model, instead of one person getting 10 points of knowledge, there are ten people getting 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1 points of knowledge, each number smaller than 10 but their sum 24 is greater than 10; in other words, we are not optimizing for the individual's input, but for the speaker's output.

But building common knowledge seems more likely. The advantage of speech is that everyone knows that everyone at the same lecture heard the same explanation; which allows later debates among the audience. If you read a book alone, you don't know who else did.

And of course, signaling such as "this person is considered an expert (or has sufficiently high status so that everyone pretends they are an expert) by both the organizers and the audience". I would assume that the less information people get from the lecture, the stronger the status signaling.

comment by Raemon · 2019-08-01T19:14:34.456Z · score: 3 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Is the implied background claim that conferences are useless, and with this comment, you're remarking that it's sunk in how especially sad that is?

Something something about how many words you have [LW · GW] if you're doing in-person communication.

comment by jacobjacob · 2019-08-02T11:50:06.984Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

No, it's just me being surprised about how much information conversation can contain (I expected the bandwidth to be far lower, and the benefits mostly to be due to quick feedback loops). Combine that with personal experience of attending bad conferences and lame conversations, and things seem sad. But that's not the key point.

Really like your post. (Also it's crazy if true that the conversational upper bound decreases by 1 if people are gossiping, since they have to model the gossip subject.)

comment by jacobjacob · 2019-07-23T03:00:29.143Z · score: 16 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Had a good conversation with elityre today. Two nuggets of insight:

  • If you want to level up, find people who seem mysteriously better than you at something, and try to learn from them.
  • Work on projects which are plausibly crucial. That is, projects such that if we look back from a win scenario, it's not too implausible we'd say they were part of the reason.
comment by jacobjacob · 2019-08-14T00:28:29.812Z · score: 13 (8 votes) · LW · GW

What important book that needs fact-checking is nobody fact-checking?

comment by jp · 2019-08-14T04:14:12.824Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · LW · GW

The Sequences could use a refresher possibly.

Deep Work was my immediate thought after Elizabeth's spot check [LW · GW].


comment by jacobjacob · 2019-07-23T03:16:50.351Z · score: 13 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I'm confused about the effects of the internet on social groups. [1]

On the one hand... the internet enables much larger social groups (e.g. reddit communities with tens of thousands of members) and much larger circles of social influence (e.g. instagram celebrities having millions of followers). Both of these will tend to display network effects. However, A) social status is zero-sum, and B) there are diminishing returns to the health benefits of social status [2]. This suggests that on the margin moving from a very large number of small communities (e.g. bowling clubs) to a smaller number of larger communities (e.g. bowling YouTubers) will be net negative, because the benefits of status gains at the top will diminish faster than the harms from losses at the median.

On the other hand... the internet enables much more niched social groups. Ceteris paribus, this suggests it should enable more groups and higher quality groups.

I don't know how to weigh these effects, but currenly expect the former to be a fair bit larger.

[1] In addition to being confused I'm also uncertain, due to lack of data I could obtain in a few hours, probably.

[2] In contrast to the psychological benefits of status, I think social capital can sometimes have increasing returns. One mechanism: if you grow your network, the number of connections between units in your network grows even faster.

comment by mr-hire · 2019-07-27T22:26:55.538Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

My recent thinking about this in relation to creative content is this:

1. The middle has gotten much narrower. That is, because news can travel fast, and we can see what people's opinions are, and high status people have more reach, the "average person's aesthetic loves" are now much closer to the typical person. People who make content for a mainstream audience now have to contend with this mega-tastemaking machine, and there's not as much space to go around because EVERYBODY is watching game of thrones and reading harry potter.

2. The tails have gotten much wider. That is, because self-publishing is easy, and searching is easy, and SOOO much content is at our fingertips, there are way more and way more varied fringe tastes than ever before, and people who make weird or out there content now have the option of making a living with 1000 true fans.

I haven't thought about it too much, but it's possible the internet has had the same effect on groups in general. With mainstream groups being bigger, and there being more room for niche groups. In general if we're talking about people's wellbeing, I suspect the first effect (of seeing how lititle status you have relative to the megastars) to overwhelm the effect of being able to find niche groups to be a part of.

comment by Pattern · 2019-07-23T04:17:32.885Z · score: -2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

So whether the internet is good or bad hinges on 1) whether (or to what degree) the health benefits of social status can be imparted via the internet, and 2) knowledge about social graphs that might be obtained from Facebook, or possessed by the NSA?

comment by jacobjacob · 2019-07-23T04:23:53.478Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

If you're asking whether your paraphrase actually captures my model, it doesn't. If you're making a point, I'm afraid I don't get it.

comment by Pattern · 2019-07-23T15:29:07.530Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
In addition to being confused I'm also uncertain, due to lack of data I could obtain in a few hours, probably.

While your model makes a lot of sense, I'm unclear on what data would clear this up.

comment by jacobjacob · 2019-08-02T12:10:16.753Z · score: 10 (5 votes) · LW · GW

There are different kinds of information instutitions.

  • Info-generating (e.g. Science, ...)
  • Info-capturing (e.g. short-form? prediction markets?)
  • Info-sharing (e.g. postal services, newspapers, social platforms, language regulators, ...)
  • Info-preserving (e.g. libraries, archives, religions, Chesterton's fence-norms, ...)
  • Info-aggregating (e.g. prediction markets, distill.pub...)

I hadn't considered the use of info-capturing institutions until recently, and in particular how prediction sites might help with this. If you have an insight or an update, there is cheap and standardised way to make it part of the world's share knowledge.

The cheapness means you might actually do it. And the standardisation means it will interface more easily with the other parts of the info pipeline (easier to share, easier to preserve, easier to aggregate into established wisdom...)

comment by Abe Dillon (abe-dillon) · 2019-08-02T22:05:46.297Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

According to the standard model of physics: information can't be created or destroyed. I don't know if science can be said to "generate" information rather than capturing it. It seems like you might be referring to a less formal notion of information, maybe "knowledge".

Are short-forms really about information and knowledge? It's my understanding that they're about short thoughts and ideas.

I've been contemplating the value alignment problem and have come to the idea that the "telos" of life is to capture and preserve information. This seemingly implies some measure of the utility of information, because information that's more relevant to the problem of capturing and preserving information is more important to capture and preserve than information that's irrelevant to capturing and preserving information. You might call such a measure "knowledge", but there's probably already an information theoretic formalization of that word.

I have to admit, I don't have a strong background in information theory. I'm not really sure if it even makes sense to discuss what some information is "about". I think there's something called the Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom (DIKW) hierarchy which may help sort that out. I think data is the bits used to store information. Like the information content of an un-compressed word document might be the same after compressing said document, it just takes up less data. Knowledge might be how information relates to other information, like you might think it takes one bit of information to convey whether the British are invading by land or by sea, but if you have more information about what factors into that decision, like the weather then the signal conveys less than one bit of information because you can make a pretty good prediction without it. In other words: our universe follows some rules and causal relationships so treating events as independent random occurrences is rarely correct. Wisdom, I believe; is about using the knowledge and information you have to make decisions.

Take all that with a grain of salt.

comment by jacobjacob · 2019-08-08T15:04:01.840Z · score: 9 (5 votes) · LW · GW

If you're building something and people's first response is "Doesn't this already exist?" that might be a good sign.

It's hard to find things that actually are good (as opposed to just seeming good), and if you succeed, there ought to be some story for why no one else got there first.

Sometimes that story might be:

People want X. A thing existed which called itself "X", so everyone assumed X already existed. If you look close enough, "X" is actually pretty different from X, but from a distance they blend together; causing people looking for ideas to look elsewhere.