Prizes for the 2021 Review
post by Raemon · 2023-02-10T19:47:43.504Z · LW · GW · 2 commentsContents
Post Prizes Gold Prize Posts Silver Prize Posts Bronze Prize Posts Honorable Mentions Honorable-est Mention Prize Totals None 2 comments
If you received a prize, please fill out your payment contact email and PayPal [? · GW].
A'ight, one final 2021 Review Roundup post – awarding prizes. I had a week to look over the results. The primary way I ranked posts was by a weighted score, which gave 1000+ karma users 3x the voting weight. Here was the distribution of votes:
I basically see two strong outlier posts at the top of the ranking, followed by a cluster of 6-7 posts, followed by a smooth tail of posts that were pretty good without any clear cutoff.
Post Prizes
Gold Prize Posts
Two posts stood noticeably out above all the others, which I'm awarding $800 to.
- Strong Evidence is Common [LW · GW] by Mark Xu
- “PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not [LW · GW], by Anna Salamon.
- I also particularly liked Akash's review [LW · GW].
Silver Prize Posts
And the second (eyeballed) cluster of posts, each getting $600, is:
- Your Cheerful Price [LW · GW], by Eliezer Yudkowsky.
- This notably had the most reviews – a lot of people wanted to weigh in and say "this personally helped me", often with some notes or nuance.
- ARC's first technical report: Eliciting Latent Knowledge [LW · GW] by Paul Christiano, Ajeya Cotra and Mark Xu.
- This Can't Go On [LW · GW] by Holden Karnofsky
- Rationalism before the Sequences [LW · GW], by Eric S Raymond.
- I liked this review by A Ray [LW(p) · GW(p)] who noted one source of value here is the extensive bibliography.
- Lies, Damn Lies, and Fabricated Options [LW · GW], by Duncan Sabien
- Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute [LW · GW], by Daniel Kokotajlo.
- Nostalgebraist's review [LW(p) · GW(p)] was particularly interesting.
- What 2026 looks like [LW · GW] by Daniel Kokotajlo
- Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty [LW · GW]. This didn't naturally cluster into the same group of vote-totals as the other silver-prizes, but it was in the top 10. I think the post was fairly hard to read, and didn't have easily digestible takeaways, but nonetheless I think this kicked off some of the most important conversations in the AI Alignment space and warrants inclusion in this tier.
Bronze Prize Posts
Although there's not a clear clustering after this point, when I eyeball how important the next several posts were, it seems to me appropriate to give $400 to each of:
- How To Write Quickly While Maintaining Epistemic Rigor [LW · GW], by John Wentworth
- Science in a High-Dimensional World [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- How factories were made safe [LW · GW] by Jason Crawford
- Cryonics signup guide #1: Overview [LW · GW] by Mingyuan
- Making Vaccine [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- Taboo "Outside View" [LW · GW] by Daniel Kokotaljo
- All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild [LW · GW] by Holden Karnofsky
- Another (outer) alignment failure story [LW · GW] by Paul Christiano
- Split and Commit [LW · GW] by Duncan Sabien
- What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs) [LW · GW] by Andrew Critch
- There’s no such thing as a tree (phylogenetically) [LW · GW], by eukaryote
- The Plan [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality [LW · GW] by Scott Alexander
- Finite Factored Sets [LW · GW] by Scott Garrabrant
- Selection Theorems: A Program For Understanding Agents [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- Slack Has Positive Externalities For Groups [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- My research methodology [LW · GW] by Paul Christiano
Honorable Mentions
This final group has the most arbitrary cutoff at all, and includes some judgment calls about how many medium or strong votes it had, among 1000+ karma users, and in some edge cases my own subjective guess of how important it was.
These authors each get $100 per post.
- The Rationalists of the 1950s (and before) also called themselves “Rationalists” [LW · GW] by Owain Evans
- Ruling Out Everything Else [LW · GW] by Duncan Sabien
- Leaky Delegation: You are not a Commodity [LW · GW] by Darmani
- Feature Selection [LW · GW] by Zack Davis
- Cup-Stacking Skills (or, Reflexive Involuntary Mental Motions) [LW · GW] by Duncan Sabien
- larger language models may disappoint you [or, an eternally unfinished draft] [LW · GW] by Nostalgebraist
- Self-Integrity and the Drowning Child [LW · GW] by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?” [LW · GW] by Nate Soares
- Working With Monsters [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- Simulacrum 3 As Stag-Hunt Strategy [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- EfficientZero: How It Works [LW · GW] by 1a3orn
- Does Georgism Work? Part 1: Is Land Really A Big Deal by Lars Doucet (submitted to the Review process by Sune [LW · GW])
- Catching the Spark [LW · GW] by Logan Strohl
- Specializing in Problems We Don't Understand [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- Shoulder Advisors 101 [LW · GW] by Duncan Sabien
- Notes from "Don't Shoot the Dog" [LW · GW] by Julia Wise
- Why has nuclear power been a flop? [LW · GW] by Jason Crawford
- Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years [LW · GW] by niconiconi
- Frame Control [LW · GW] by Aella
- Worst-case thinking in AI alignment [LW · GW] by Buck
- Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds" [LW · GW] by Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, and presumably some MIRI editors
- You are probably underestimating how good self-love can be [LW · GW] by charlie.rs
- Infra-Bayesian physicalism: a formal theory of naturalized induction [LW · GW] by Vanessa Kosoy
- This actually fell under my cutoff for "number of medium+ votes". I'll be honest, I don't even really understand Infra-Bayesianism. But every time someone attempts to explain it to me I feel like I get a taste of something that will one day be important. Giving it an honorable mention, but, take it with that grain of salt.
- Jean Monnet: The Guerilla Bureaucrat [LW · GW] by Martin Sustrik
- Seven Years of Spaced Repetition Software in the Classroom [LW · GW] by tanagrabeast
- Coordination Schemes Are Capital Investments [LW · GW] by Raemon
- I don't get a prize tho. :(
- The Point of Trade [LW · GW] by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Saving Time [LW · GW] by Scott Garrabrant
- What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean? [LW · GW] by John Wentworth
- Highlights from The Autobiography of Andrew Carnegie [LW · GW] by Jason Crawford
- Grokking the Intentional Stance [LW · GW] by jbkjr
Honorable-est Mention
I... choose to wield my dictatorial power of the review process to refuse to give Elephant seal 2 [LW · GW] a prize, even it landed a respectably high "rank 39" in the weighted vote totals. But, it sure does seem like it deserves an Honorable-ish mention anyway for all of people's love for it. I also quite liked Coafos' review of Elephant Seal 2 [? · GW], which was also the second-highest-karma-review. But which I also use my dictatorial powers to refuse to give a prize to.
Fight me.
Prize Totals
When you add all that up, here are the prize totals. Reminder, if you received a prize, please fill out your payment contact email and PayPal [? · GW] so we can pay you.
- @johnswentworth [LW · GW] $2800
- @Daniel Kokotajlo [LW · GW] $1600
- @Duncan_Sabien [LW · GW] $1300
- @paulfchristiano [LW · GW] $1100
- @HoldenKarnofsky [LW · GW] $1000 (but, he has declined to avoid any potential conflict of interest)
- @Eliezer Yudkowsky [LW · GW] $1200
- @Mark Xu [LW · GW] $1000
- @AnnaSalamon [LW · GW] $800
- @Eric Raymond [LW · GW] $600
- @jasoncrawford [LW · GW] $600
- @Scott Garrabrant [LW · GW] $500
- @mingyuan [LW · GW] $400
- @Andrew_Critch [LW · GW] $400
- @eukaryote [LW · GW] $400
- @Scott Alexander [LW · GW] $400
- @Richard_Ngo [LW · GW] $300
- @Ajeya Cotra [LW · GW] $200
- @Owain_Evans [LW · GW] $100
- @Darmani [LW · GW] $100
- @Zack_M_Davis [LW · GW] $100
- @nostalgebraist [LW · GW] $100
- @So8res [LW · GW] $100
- @1a3orn [LW · GW] $100
- Lars Doucet $100
- @LoganStrohl [LW · GW] $100
- @juliawise [LW · GW] $100
- @niconiconi [LW · GW] $100
- @Aella [LW · GW] $100
- @Buck [LW · GW] $100
- @charlie.rs [LW · GW] $100
- @Vanessa Kosoy [LW · GW] $100
- @Martin Sustrik [LW · GW] $100
- @tanagrabeast [LW · GW] $100
- @jbkjr [LW · GW] $100
2 comments
Comments sorted by top scores.
comment by Raemon · 2023-02-11T22:34:34.616Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I feel some desire to flag: in the pre-FTX-collapse world, I'd have definitely wanted these prizes to be significantly larger, to more reflect the actual effort and value. My sense is that even pre-FTX, there was enough money around that that'd be reasonable.
But, it's admittedly a bit tricky/confusing because many of the authors are already working fulltime at an org that makes space for them to write, so, well, this is more like a nice bonus on top of them already getting paid, and I'm not sure how rewarding the prizes actually are.
But there are at least some new top authors each year who aren't already getting paid that way. Not sure how to balance tjhe various considerations.