G Gordon Worley III's Shortform

Some thoughts on Buddhist epistemology.

This risks being threatening, upsetting, and heretical within a certain point of view I commonly see expressed on LW for reasons that will become clear if you keep reading. I don't know if that means you shouldn't read this if that sounds like the kind of thing you don't want to read, but I put it out there so you can make the choice without having to engage in the specifics if you don't want to. I don't think you will be missing out on anything if that warning gives you a tinge of "maybe I won't like reading this".

My mind produces a type error when people try to perform deep and precise epistemic analysis of the dharma. That is, when they try to evaluate the truth of claims made by the dharma this seems generally fine, but when they go deep enough that they end up trying to evaluate whether the dharma itself is based on something true, I get the type error.

I'm not sure what people trying to do this turn up. My expectation is that their results looks like noise if you aggregate over all such attempts. The reason being that the dharma is not founded on episteme.

As a quick reminder, there are at least three categories of knowledge worth considering: doxa, episteme, and gnosis. Doxa might translate as "hearsay" in English; it's about statements of the truth. Episteme is knowledge you come to believe via evaluation of the truth. Gnosis is direct, unmediated-by-ontology knowledge of reality. To this I'll also distinguish techne from episteme, the former being experienced knowledge and the latter being reasoned knowledge.

I'll make the probably not very bold claim that most LW rationalists value episteme above all else, accept techne as evidence, accept doxa as evidence about evidence and only weak evidence of truth itself, and mostly ignore gnosis because it is not "rational" in the sense that it cannot be put into words and it can only be pointed at by words and so cannot be analyzed because there is no ontology or categorization to allow making claims one way or the other about it.

Buddhist philosophy values gnosis above all else, then techne, then doxa, then episteme.

To say a little more, the most important thing in Buddhist thinking is seeing reality just as it is, unmediated by the "thinking" mind, by which we really mean the acts of discrimination, judgement, categorization, and ontology. To be sure, this "reality" is not external reality, which we never get to see directly, but rather our unmediated contact with it via the senses. But for all the value of gnosis, unless you plan to sit on a lotus flower in perfect equanimity forever and never act in the world, it's not enough. Techne is the knowledge we gain through action in the world, and although it does pass judgement and discriminate, it also stays close to the ground and makes few claims. It is deeply embodied in action itself.

I'd say doxa comes next because there is a tradition of passing on the words of enlightened people as they said them and acting, at least some of the time, as if they were 100% true. Don't confuse this for just letting anything in, though: the point is to trust in the words of those who have come before and seen more than you and doing that is often very helpful to learning to see that which was previously invisible for yourself, but it is always an action you do yourself not contingent on the teachings since those only pointed you towards where to look and always failed to put into words (because it was impossible) what you would find. The old story was that the Buddha, when asked why he should be believed, said don't: try it for yourself and see what you find.

Episteme is last, and that's because it's not to be trusted. Of all the ways of knowing, episteme is the least grounded in reality. This should not be surprising, but it might be, so I'll say a bit about it. Formal methods are not grounded. There's a reason the grounding problem, epistemic circularity, the problem of the criterion, the problem of finding the universal prior, etc. remain fundamentally unsolved: they are unsolvable in a complete and adequate way. Instead we get pragmatic solutions that cross the chasm between reality and belief, between noumena and phenomena, between the ontic and ontology, and this leap of faith means episteme is always contingent on that leap. Even as it proves things we verify by other means, we must be careful because it's not grounded and we have to check everything it produces by other means. This means going all the way down to gnosis if possible, and techne at the least.

None of this it to say that episteme is not useful for many things and making predictions, but we hold it at arms length because of its powerful ability to confuse us if we didn't happen to make the right leaps where we pragmatically had to. It also always leaves something out because it requires distinctions to function, so it is always less complete. At the same time, it often makes predictions that turn out to be true, and the world is better for our powerful application of it. We just have to keep in mind what it is and what it can do and what its dangers are and engage with it in a thoughtful, careful way to avoid getting lost and confusing our perception of reality for reality itself.

So when we talk about the dharma or justify our actions on it, it's worth noting that it is not really trying to provide consistent episteme. It's grounded on gnosis and techne, presented via doxa, and only after the fact might we try to extend it via episteme to get an idea of where to look to understand it better. Thus it's a strange inversion to ask the dharma for episteme-based proofs. It can't give them, nor does it try, because its episteme is not consistent and cannot be because it chooses completeness instead.

So where does this leave us? If you want to evaluate the dharma, you'll have to do it yourself. You can't argue about it or reason it, you have to sit down and look at the nature of reality without conceptualizing it. Maybe that means you won't engage with it since it doesn't choose to accept the framing of episteme. That seems fine if you are so inclined. But then don't be surprised if the dharma claims you are closed minded, if you feel like it attacks your identity, and if it feels just true enough that you can't easily dismiss it out of hand although you might like to.

If an organism is a thing that organizes, then a thing that optimizes is an optimism.

I'm sad that postrationality/metarationality has, as a movement, started to collapse on itself in terms of doing the thing it started out doing.

What I have in mind is that initially, say 5+ years ago, postrationality was something of a banner for folks who were already in the rationalist or rationalist-adjacent community, saw some ways in which rationalists were failing at their own project, and tried to work on figuring out how to do those things.

Now, much like postmodernism before it, I see postrationality collapsing from a thing only for people who were already rationalists and wanted to go beyond its limitations of the time to a kind of prerationality that rejects instead of builds on the rationalist project.

This kind of dynamic is pretty common (cf. premodern, modern, and postmodern) but it still sucks. On the other hand, I guess the good side of it is that I see lots of signs that the rationality community is better integrating some of the early postrationalist insights such that it feels like there's less to push back against in the median rationalist viewpoint.

This is a short post to register my kudos to LWers for being consistently pretty good at helping each other find answers to questions, or at least make progress towards answers. I feel like I've used LW numerous times to make progress on work by saying "here's what I got, here's where I'm confused, what do you think?", whether that be through formal question posts or regular posts that are open ended. Some personal examples that come to mind: recent [LW · GW], older [LW · GW], another [LW · GW].

Praise to the LW community!

I'm fairly pessimistic on our ability to build aligned AI. My take is roughly that it's theoretically impossible and at best we might build AI that is aligned well enough that we don't lose. I've not written one thing to really summarize this or prove it, though.

The source of my take comes from two facts:

1. Goodharting is robust. That is, the mechanism of Goodharting seems impossible to overcome. Goodharting is just a fact of any control system.
2. It's impossible to infer the inner experience (and thus values) of another being perfectly without making normative assumptions.

Stuart Armstrong has made a case for (2) with his no free lunch theorem. I've not seen anyone formally make the case for (1), though.

Is this something worth trying to prove? That Goodharting is unavoidable and at most we can try to contain its effects?

I'm many years out from doing math full time so I'm not sure if I could make a rigorous proof of it, but this seems to be something that people disagree on sometimes (arguing that Goodharting can be overcome) but I think most of those discussions don't get very precise about what that means.

People often talk of unconditional love, but they implicitly mean unconditional love for or towards someone or something, like a child, parent, or spouse. But this kind of love is by definition conditional because it is love conditioned on the target being identified as a particular thing within the lover's ontology.

True unconditional love is without condition, and it cannot be directed because to direct is to condition and choose. Unconditional love is love of all, of everything and all of reality even when not understood as a thing.

Such love is rare, so it seems worth pursuing the arduous cultivation of it.

I think it's safe to say that many LW readers don't feel like spirituality [LW · GW]is a big part of their life, yet many (probably most) people do experience a thing that goes by many names---the inner light, Buddha-nature, shunyata, God [LW · GW]---and falls under the heading of "spirituality". If you're not sure what I'm talking about, I'm pointing to a common human experience you aren't having.

Only, I don't think you're not having it, you just don't realize you are having those experiences.

One way some people get in touch with this thing, which I like to think of as "the source" and "naturalness" and might describe as the silently illuminated wellspring, is with drugs, especially psychedelics but really any drug that gets you to either reduce activity of the default-mode network or at least notice it's operation and stop identifying with it (dissociatives may function like this). In this light, I think of drug users as very spiritual people, only they are unfortunately doing it in a way that is often destructive to their bodies and causes headlessness (causes them to fail to perceive reality accurately and so may act out of confusion and ignorance, leading to greater suffering).

Another way some people manage to get in touch with the source is through exercise. They exercise hard enough that their body gives up devoting enough energy to the brain that the default-mode network shuts down and then they get a "high".

Another way I think many people touch the source is through nostalgia. My theory is that it works like this: when we are young the conceptualizing mind is weak and we see reality as it is more clearly even if it's in a way that is very ignorant of causality; then we get older and understand causality better via stronger models and more conceptualization and discernment but at the cost of less seeing reality directly and more seeing it through our maps; nostalgia is then a feeling of longing to get back to the source, to get back to seeing reality directly the way we did when we were younger.

There are many other ways people get in touch with ultimate reality to gain gnosis of it. The ones I've just described are all "inferior" in the sense that they partially get back to the source in a fragmented way that lets you get only a piece of it. There are "superior" methods, though, maybe the purest (in the sense of having the least extra stuff and the most clear, direct access) of which I consider to be meditation. But however you do it, the human experience of spirituality is all around you and always available, only we've failed to notice the many ways we get at it in the modern, secular world by denying the spirituality of these experiences.

I have plans to write this up more fully as a longer post explaining the broader ideas with visuals, but I thought I would highlight one that is pretty interesting and try out the new shortform feature at the same time! As such, this is not optimized for readability, has no links, and I don't try to backup my claims. You've been warned!

Suppose you frequently found yourself identifying with and feeling like you were a homunculus controlling your body and mind: there's a real you buried inside, and it's in the driver's seat. Sometimes your mind and body do what "you" want, sometimes it doesn't and this is frustrating. Plenty of folks reify this in slightly different ways: rider and elephant, monkey and machine, prisoner in cave (or audience member in theater), and, to a certain extent, variations on the S1/S2 model. In fact, I would propose this is a kind of dual process theory of mind that has you identifying with one of the processes.

A few claims.

First, this is a kind of constant, low-level dissociation. It's not the kind of high-intensity dissociation we often think of when we use that term, but it's still a separation of sense of self from the physical embodiment of self.

Second, this is projection, and thus a psychological problem in need of resolving. There's nothing good about thinking of yourself this way; it's a confusion that may be temporarily helpful but it's also something you need to learn to move beyond via first reintegrating the separated sense of self and mind/body.

Third, people drawn to the rationalist community are unusually likely to be the sort of folks who dissociate and identify with the homunculus, S2, the rider, far mode, or whatever you want to call it. It gives them a world view that says "ah, yes, I know what's right, but for some reason by stupid brain doesn't do what I want, so let's learn how to make it do what I want" when this is in fact a confusion because it's the very brain that's "stupid" that's producing the feeling that you think you know what you want!

To speculate a bit, this might help explain some of the rationalist/meta-rationalist divide: rationalists are still dissociating, meta-rationalists have already reintegrated, and as a result we care about very different things and look at the world differently because of it. That's very speculative, though, and I have nothing other than weak evidence to back it up.

More surprised than perhaps I should be that people take up tags right away after creating them. I created the IFS [? · GW] tag just a few days ago after noticing it didn't exist but wanted to link it and I added the first ~5 posts that came up if I searched for "internal family systems". It now has quite a few more posts tagged with it that I didn't add. Super cool to see the system working in real time!

One of the fun things about the current Good Heart Token week is that it's giving me cover to try less hard to write posts. I'm writing a bunch, and I have plausible deniability if any of them end up not being that good—I was Goodharting. Don't hate the player, hate the game.

I'm not sure how many of these posts will stand the test of time, but I think there's something valuable about throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks. I'm not normally going to invest in that sort of strategy; I just don't have time for it. But for one week it's fun to do it and see what comes out of it, motivated by my desire to stay on the leaderboard and to offset my commitment to the donation lottery.

I think I've already produced a few interesting things, so we'll see what I write in the next couple days!

tl;dr: read multiple things concurrently so you read them "slowly" over multiple days, weeks, months

When I was a kid, it took a long time to read a book. How could it not: I didn't know all the words, my attention span was shorter, I was more restless, I got lost and had to reread more often, I got bored more easily, and I simply read fewer words per minute. One of the effects of this is that when I read a book I got to live with it for weeks or months as I worked through it.

I think reading like that has advantages. By living with a book for longer the ideas it contained had more opportunity to bump up against other things in my life. I had more time to think about what I had read when I wasn't reading. I more deeply drunk in the book as I worked to grok it. And for books I read for fun, I got to spend more time enjoying them, living with the characters and author, by having it spread out over time.

As an adult it's hard to preserve this. I read faster and read more than I did as a kid (I estimate I spend 4 hours a day reading on a typical day (books, blogs, forums, etc.), not including incidental reading in the course of doing other things). Even with my relatively slow reading rate of about 200 wpm, I can polish off ~50k words per day, the length of a short novel.

The trick, I find, is to read slowly by reading multiple things concurrently and reading only a little bit of each every day. For books this is easy: I can just limit myself to a single chapter per day. As long as I have 4 or 5 books I'm working on at once, I can spread out the reading of each to cover about a month. Add in other things like blogs and I can spread things out more.

I think this has additional benefits over just getting to spend more time with the ideas. It lets the ideas in each book come up against each other in ways they might otherwise not. I sometimes notice patterns that I might otherwise not have because things are made simultaneously salient that otherwise would not be. And as a result I think I understand what I read better because I get the chance not just to let it sink in over days but also because I get to let it sink in with other stuff that makes my memory of it richer and more connected.

So my advice, if you're willing to try it, is to read multiple books, blogs, etc. concurrently, only reading a bit of each one each day, and let your reading span weeks and months so you can soak in what you read more deeply rather than letting it burn bright and fast through your mind to be forgotten like a used up candle.

Explanations are liftings from one ontology to another.

I get worried about things like this article that showed up on the Partnership on AI blog. Reading it there's nothing I can really object to in the body of post: it's mostly about narrow AI alignment and promotes a positive message of targeting things that benefit society rather than narrowly maximize a simple metric. How it's titled "Aligning AI to Human Values means Picking the Right Metrics" and that implies to me a normative claim that reads in my head something like "to build aligned AI it is necessary and sufficient to pick the right metrics" which is something I think few would agree with. Yet if I was a casual observer just reading the title of this post I might come away with the impression that AI alignment is as easy as just optimizing for something prosocial, not that there are lots of hard problems to be solved to even get AI to do what you want, let alone to pick something beneficial to humanity to do.

To be fair this article has a standard "not necessarily the views of PAI, etc." disclaimer, but then the author is a research fellow at PAI.

This makes me a bit nervous about the effect of PAI on promoting AI safety in industry, especially if it effectively downplays it or makes it seem easier than it is in ways that either encourages or fails to curtail risky behavior in the use of AI in industry.

Sometimes people at work say to me "wow, you write so clearly; how do you do it?" and I think "given the nonsense I'm normally trying to explain on LW, it's hardly a surprise I've developed the skill well enough that when it's something as 'simple' as explaining how to respond to a page or planning a technical project that I can write clearly; you should come see what it looks like when I'm struggling at the edge of what I understand!".

Small boring, personal update:

I've decided to update my name here and various places online.

I started going by "G Gordon Worley III" when I wrote my first academic paper and discovered I there would be significant name collision if I just went by "Gordon Worley". Since "G Gordon Worley III" is, in fact, one version of my full legal name that is, as best as I can tell, globally unique, it seemed a reasonable choice.

A couple years ago I took Zen precepts and received a Dharma name: "Sincere Way." In the Sino-Japanese used for Dharma names, "誠道", or "Seidoh" when written in Romaji.

(It should actually be "Seidou" or "Seidо̄" by the standard rules, but in the former case no one will say my name correctly if I spell it like that and in the latter typing a macron is a pain in the ass on most English keyboards. I debated spelling it "Saydoh" since rhyming with "Playdoh" gives the closest English approximate, but that's too nonstandard for me to live with.)

I'm not sure what changed recently, but I've decided to keep my name unique but in a new way by switching to using "Seidoh" as if it were my middle name. It'll probably be a while before I propagate the update everywhere, but that's the plan.

I still expect most everyone to call me Gordon, just as they did before. This is just a new way of writing my name when I want a unique identifier.

But I don't mean to underplay this change.

I was born Gordon. I've become Seidoh. The time has come to honor both.

It seems like humans need an outgroup.

My evidence is not super strong, but I notice a few things:

• There's less political tension and infighting when there's a clear enemy. Think about wartime.
• There's a whole political theory about creating ingroup cohesion based on defining the ingroup against the outgroup. This is how a number of nation-states and religions were congealed.
• Lots of political infighting has ramped up over the last 30+ years. This period has also been a long period of peace with no threat of major power wars. Theory: people constructed an outgroup.

My theory is roughly that humans need an ingroup for a variety of reasons not detailed here, there's no ingroup without an outgroup, thus they need an outgroup to define the ingroup. If no natural outgroup exists they'll create it.

I recently watched all 7 seasons of HBO's "Silicon Valley" and the final episode (or really the final 4 episodes leading up into the final one) did a really great job of hitting on some important ideas we talk about in AI safety.

Now, the show in earlier seasons has played with the idea of AI with things like an obvious parody of Ben Goertzel and Sophia, discussion of Roko's Basilisk, and of course AI that Goodharts. In fact, Goodharting is a pivotal plot point in how the show ends, along with a Petrov-esque ending where hard choices have to be made under uncertainty to protect humanity and it has to be kept a secret due to an information hazard.

Goodhart, Petrov, and information hazards are not mentioned by name in the show, but the topics are clearly present. Given that the show was/is popular with folks in the SF Bay Area tech scene because it does such a good job of mirroring back what it's like to live in that scene, even if it's a hyperbolic characterization, I wonder if and hope that this will helpfully nudge folks towards normalizing taking AI safety seriously and seeing it as virtuous to forgo personal gain in exchange for safeguarding humanity.

I don't expect for things to change dramatically because of the show, but on the margin it might be working to make us a little bit safer. For that reason I think it's likely a good idea to encourage folks not already dedicated to AI safety to watch the show, so long as the effort involved in minimal.

NB: There's something I feel sad about when I imagine what it's like to be others, so I'm going to ramble about it a bit in shortform because I'd like to say this and possibly say it confusingly rather than not say it at all. Maybe with some pruning this babble can be made to make sense.

There's a certain strain of thought and thinkers in the rationality community that make me feel sad when I think about what it must be like to be them: the "closed" individualists. This is as opposed to people who view personal identity as either "empty" or "open".

I'll let Andrés of QRI explain all too briefly:

Closed Individualism: You start existing when you are born, and stop when you die.

Empty Individualism: You exist as a “time-slice” or “moment of experience.”

Open Individualism: There is only one subject of experience, who is everyone.

I might summarize the positions a little differently. Closed individualism is the "naive" theory of individualism: people, agents, etc. are like islands forever separated from each other by the gulf of subjective experience that can only be crossed by sending messages in bottles to the other islands (because you can never leave the island you are on). Empty individualism says that individualism is an after the fact reification and is not a natural phenomenon but rather an illusory artifact of how we understand the world. Open individualism is a position like the thing panpsychists are often trying to backpedal from, that the Universe is experiencing itself through us.

I think other positions are possible. For example, my own thinking is that it's more like seeing these all as partial views that are "right" from a certain frame of thinking but none on its own captures the whole thing. I might call my position something like dialectical empty individualism via comparison to dialectical monism (which I think is the right term to capture my metaphysical position, though neutral monism probably works just as well, ergo neutral empty individualism might be an alternative term).

Anyway, back to the sadness. Now to be fair I feel sad when I think about what it must be like to be anyone who holds tightly to a closed individualism perspective, rationalist or not, but I more often see the extremes of where the closed position takes one among rationalists. I'm making an inference here, but my guess is that a closed individualist view is a large part of what makes things like value drift scary, life extension a top priority, and game & decision theory feel vitally important not just to AI safety but to living life.

And I say all this having previously been a closed individualist for most of my life. And I'm not opposed to the closed individualist view: I'm working on problems in value alignment for AI, I'm signed up for cryonics, and I think better decision theory is worth having. After all, I think closed individualism is right, and not just partially right, but all right, up to the limit of not being willing to say it's right to the exclusion of the other perspectives. I think the closed individualism view feels real to people and is accurately describing both people's experiences of individuality and some of the phenomena that create it.

So why am I sad? In many ways, closed individualism is a view that is built on suffering. It contains within it a great loneliness for creatures like us who want desperately to connect. It says that no matter how hard we try to bridge the gap it will always remain, and many people feel that if they were given the chance to eliminate it and merge with others they wouldn't want to because then they'd lose themselves. To be a closed individualist is to live in fear: fear of death, fear of change, fear of loss of control. To me, that's sad, because there's another way.

The closed individualist might object "so what, this is a teleological argument: I might not want it to be that I am isolated and suffer, but closed individualism is what the world looks like, and I can't be hurt by what is already true, so I maintain this position is right". But I think this is wrong, because closed individualism is "wrong" in the sense that it doesn't tell the whole story. If you're looking for the theory that's the most scientifically defensible, that for sure is empty individualism, not closed individualism, but it's also very hard to get an intuitive grasp on empty individualism that you can live with and not sometimes think of yourself as a closed individual, so this tends to leave even the person who believes empty individualism is right acting as if closed individualism is how the world works.

The way out lies through open individualism, but this is a hard one to write about. Until you've felt the joy of open hearted connectedness to all being with ever fiber of existence, I think you'd have a hard time taking this view seriously, and the only way to feel this and take it seriously is probably through hundreds if not thousands of hours of meditation (you can also feel it with drugs but I think it's more likely a person would dismiss or misunderstand the feeling as just a cool thing they felt on drugs). The "I am not it but it is me" sense you get is not really possible to explain to others; you have to see it for yourself because it exists somewhere beyond distinction such that it can never be brought back to a world carved up into more than one whole.

So here we are, trapped in a world of suffering, persisted because every closed individualist suffers and generates more suffering for the whole because it is in all of us. Thus am I sad.

Strong and Weak Ontology

Ontology is how we make sense of the world. We make judgements about our observations and slice up the world into buckets we can drop our observations into.

However I've been thinking lately that the way we normally model ontology is insufficient. We tend to talk as if ontology is all one thing, one map of the territory. Maybe these can be very complex, multi-manifold maps that permit shifting perspectives, but one map all the same.

We see some hints at the breaking of this ontology of ontology as a single map by noticing the way some people, myself included, have noticed you can hold multiple, contradictory ontologies and switch between them. And with further development there's no switching, it just all is, only complex and with multiple projections that overlap.

But there's more. What we've been talking about here has mostly been a "strong" form of ontology that seeks to say something about the being of the world, to reify it into type-objects that can be considered, but there's also a "weak" kind of ontology from which ontology arises and which can exist without the "strong" version. It's the ontology that I referenced at the start of the post, the ontology of discrimination and nothing else. So much of ontology is taking the discrimination and turning it into a full-fledged model or map, but there's a weak notion of ontology that exists even if all we do is draw lines where we see borders.

I can't recall seeing much on this in Western philosophy; I thought about this after combining my reading of Western philosophy with my reading of Buddhist philosophy and what it has to say about how mental activity arises. But Buddhist philosophy doesn't have a strong notion of ontology the way Western philosophy does, so maybe it's not surprising this subtle point has gone missed.

So long as shortform is salient for me, might as well do another one on a novel (in that I've not heard/seen anyone express it before) idea I have about perceptual control theory, minimization of prediction error/confusion, free energy, and Buddhism that I was recently reminded of.

There is a notion within Mahayana Buddhism of the three poisons: ignorance, attachment (or, I think we could better term this here, attraction, for reasons that will become clear), and aversion. This is part of one model of where suffering arises from. Others express these notions in other ways, but I want to focus on this way of talking about these root kleshas (defilements, afflictions, mind poisons) because I think it has a clear tie in with this other thing that excites me, the idea that the primary thing that neurons seek to do is minimize prediction error.

Ignorance, even among the three poisons, is generally considered more fundamental, in that ignorance appears first and it gives rise to attraction and aversion (in some models there is fundamental ignorance that gives rise to the three poisons, marking a separation between ignorance as mental activity and ignorance as a result of the physical embodiment of information transfer). This looks to me a lot like what perceptual control theory predicts if the thing being controlled for is minimization of prediction error: there is confusion about the state of the world, information comes in, and this sends a signal within the control system of neurons to either up or down regulate something. Essentially what the three poisons describe is what you would expect the world to look like if the mind were powered by control systems trying to minimize confusion/ignorance, nudging the system toward and away from a set point where prediction error is minimized via negative feedback (and a small bonus, this might help explain why the brain doesn't tend to get into long-lasting positive feedback loops: it's not constructed for it and before long you trigger something else to down-regulate because you violate its predictions).

It also makes a lot of sense that these would be the root poisons. I think we can forgive 1st millennium Buddhists for not discovering PCT or minimization of prediction error directly, but we should not be surprised that they identified the mental actions this theory predicts should be foundational to the mind and also recognized that they were foundational actions to all others. Elsewhere, Buddhism explicitly calls out ignorance as the fundamental force driving dukkha (suffering), though we probably shouldn't assign too many points to (non-Madhyamaka) Buddhism for noticing this since other Buddhist theories don't make this same claims about attachment and aversion and they are used concurrently in explication of the dharma.

In a world that is truly and completely post-scarcity there would be no need for making tradeoffs.

Normally when we think about a post-scarcity future we think in terms of physical resources like minerals and food and real estate because for many people these are the limiting resources.

But the world is wealthy enough that some people already have access to this kind of post-scarcity. That is, they have enough money that they are not effectively limited in access to physical resources. If they need food, shelter, clothing, materiel, etc. they can get it in sufficient quantities to satisfy their needs. And yet these post-scarcity people still have a scarce resource they can't get enough of: time.

Because time is limited, we must be judicious in its use. In a world of true post-scarcity, there would be enough time that it would be effectively unlimited, say quadrillions of years of subjective experience. With so much time on our hands, we would not need to make judicious use of time. And that goes not just for our own time but for the time of others.

Today much of how we pick jobs, romantic partners, hobbies, etc. is determined by tradeoffs. Given many options but limited time and resources, we pick ones that let us maximize given the constraints. For example, maybe I'd really like to teach history and paint landscapes, but teaching history doesn't pay me much and painting landscapes takes more spare time than I have, so instead I get a job in accounting and watch TikToks. They offer me a better tradeoff in terms of the things I want: getting paid and having fun with my spare time. I'm not necessarily happy that I cannot do better, but I am happy to at least do the best I can.

In a world with effectively unlimited time, these constraints would not apply and there would be no need to make tradeoffs.

Now, unfortunately, I don't expect to ever see such a true world of post-scarcity. There's a few things that are absolutely limited in this world like time and energy. Although we can get a lot of them, perhaps more than we know what to do with, they're still limited, and so long as there's sufficient competition from others I expect those resources to get eaten up. Lots of free time and energy? Let's create some more people to make use of them. Maybe not Malthusian Trap, repugnant conclusion many of them, but a lot of them. Enough that we have to make time tradeoffs again. If we're not making time tradeoffs, we're not making enough people or using enough energy.

And so I expect to always face these limits. We'll likely face different limits than we do today. For example, I'm not worried that in a post-scarcity future we wouldn't have time to both teach history and paint landscapes if that's what we wanted to do, but I do worry that we'd only have time to spend 10^29th lifetimes as a bird or snail, never getting to fully explore the full space of possible experiences. It'll be a different kind of tradeoff we'll have to make, but a tradeoff nonetheless.

If I want to continue to rack up Good Heart Tokens I now have to make legit contributions, not just make a bid to feed me lots of karma because I'm going to donate it [LW · GW].

So, what would be an interesting post you'd enjoy reading from me? It'll have to be something I can easily put together without doing a lot of research.

I unfortunately don't have a backlog of things to polish up and put out because I've been working on a book [LW · GW], and although I have draft chapters none of them is quite ready to go out. I might be able to get one of them out the door before GHT go away, but I'd rather use this as a chance to produce some one off content, only my mind hasn't been turned to collecting good topics for self-contained posts lately.

So, what would you like to see me write?

One of the nice things in my work is I can just point to when I think something human is getting in the way. Like, sometimes someone says an idea is a bad idea. If I dig in, sometimes there's a human reason they say that: they don't actually think it's a bad idea, they just don't think they will like doing the work to make the idea real, or something similar. But those are different things, but it's important to have a conversation to sort that out and then we can move forward on two topics: is the idea good and why don't you want to be involved with it.

But in online conversations, especially on LW, people often feel like it's rude to come after someone's humanness. If you disagree with an idea, it's only normatively acceptable to talk about the idea, not about your motivations for disagreeing. Yes, this comes from standards needed to separate ideas from people and is generally useful, but sometimes it gets in the way and covers up the real reason for a disagreement.

For example, maybe someone suggests we should have prediction markets for everything. You say that sounds terrible. But really you had a personal experience with prediction markets where someone posted the question "will you break up with your romantic partner?", everyone bet "yes", and then it came true, and now you have it out for prediction markets, but you don't say that, you just have lots of reasons why prediction markets are a bad idea. But if we only talk about your purported reasons we'll never get to the heart of the objection!

I think we make a mistake in talking about ideas and forgetting that it's humans doing the talking. Separating ideas from people does some good: naively not separating them creates all kinds of problems which is why we have this bit of social tech in place! But it also can go too far, and we need to find specific ways to let the humans back into the idea discussions so we can address the sources of the ideas, not just the ideas themselves. Seems relevant to convincing others, uncovering the reasons for your own beliefs, and building consensus about what is true of the world.

Hogwarts Houses as Religions

Okay, this is just a fun nonsense idea I thought up. Please don't read anything too much into it, I'm just riffing. Sorry if I've mischaracterized a religion or Hogwarts house!

What religion typifies each Hogwarts house?

I'll start with Hufflepuff, which I think is aligned with Buddhism: treat everyone the same, and if you want salvation the only option is to do multiple lifetimes worth of work.

Next is Ravenclaw, which looks a lot like Judaism: there's a system to the world, you gotta follow the rules, and also lets debate and research endlessly to understand the last corner of things we don't yet understand.

For Gryffindor, I'm saying Christianity: some things are just right and true and worth going on crusades for, and if you want to get into heaven you just gotta believe hard enough (but also good works might help).

Okay, now for the tough one, Slytherin. I'm going to go with Sorting Hat Chats and say Slytherin is the house of in-group loyalty and base my decision purely on that rather than all the other cruft associated with this house. And if we're going by that, then I think we gotta link up Slytherin with Islam: if you're in you're family; if you're not in but in-adjacent you'll get second-class treatment that's still pretty fair; if you're out then you're out and all bets are off.

Now obviously there's lots of caveats here, like none of these "religions" I've picked out are really one single thing but rather multiple traditions and practices some of which don't fit the pattern above well. Look, I get it. I'm just trying to point at something like the core thing associated with each of these religions that may be deviated from by various branches, e.g. Quakers are obviously Hufflepuffs, atheist are I guess Ravenclaws, LDS is probably Slytherin based on my reasoning above, etc.. This is just meant to be fun and sorry if I offended anyone who comes across this.

If CAIS if sufficient for AGI, then likely humans are CAIS-style general intelligences.

Robert Moses and AI Alignment

It's useful to have some examples in mind of what it looks like when an intelligent agent isn't aligned with the shared values of humanity. We have some extreme examples of this, like paperclip maximizers, and some less extreme but extreme in human terms examples, like dictators like Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot who killed millions in the pursuit for their goals, but these feel like outliers that people can too easily make various arguments for being extreme and that no "reasonable" system would have these problems.

Okay, so let's think about how hard it is to just get "reasonable" people aligned, much less superintelligent AIs.

Consider Robert Moses, a man who achieved much at the expense of wider humanity. He worked within the system, gamed it, did useful things incidentally since they happened to bring him power or let him build a legacy, and then wielded that power in ways that harmed many while helping some. He was smart, generally caring, and largely aligned with what seemed to be good for America at the time, yet still managed to pursue courses of action that were really aligned with humanity as a whole.

We have plenty of other examples, but I think most of them don't put it quite into the kind of stark contrast Moses does. He's a great example of the kind of failure mode you can expect from inadequate alignment mechanism (though on a smaller scale): you get something that's kinda like what you wanted, but also bad in ways you probably didn't anticipate ahead of time.

Won't I get bored living forever?

I feel like this question comes up often as a kind of push back against the idea of living an unbounded number of years, or even just a really really long time beyond the scale of human comprehension for what it would mean to live that many years.

I think most responses rely on intuition about our lives. If your life today seems full of similar days and you think you'd get bored, not living forever or at least taking long naps between periods of living seems appealing. Alternatively, if your life today seems full of new experiences, you'd expect to keep having new experiences if you lived a long time. That's probably a good description of why most people believe what they do.

But I think we can make a better argument for why living a long time wouldn't result in your getting bored.

Much of the idea that you'd get bored is predicated on the idea that one day (so much as that remains a coherent concept in the future) is much like another. In fact, maybe you live the same day many times and that seems boring and not worth living. Yet days can only be the same from one's understanding of them, or else be literally the same day and thus there would be no reason not to keep reliving it.

To explain, fundamentally no moment in the universe seems to be the same as any other moment because universe moments vary on dimensions that guarantee this. Yes, there may be many quite similar moments, but now two moments are literally the same. The only exception to this is that you might run a simulation in the universe that creates days that are identical from within the frame of the simulation. But if you do this then there's no problem with living the same day multiple times, because if the same day is literally the same day that means you must be the same on each of these days and would thus have no realization you were reliving the same day (i.e. it's "Groundhog day" but no one realizes it's a loop). Yes, to us this might look like a kind of wireheading and might prefer that not be how we live, but from the inside we wouldn't object and if we did it wouldn't matter because the day would just reset and our objection we arise afresh each day without anything ever changing or us ever getting tired of living the same day over and over.

Thus we are left with days that are in fact unique, even if we believe them to be the same, and so we can get bored only to the extent we don't care about the uniqueness of each day. This seems quite satisfying to me as a reason to want to live forever, to get to see the unfolding of events over billions of years or longer, but even if it's not I think it should give you hope that there might be something to do over billions of years since notions of sameness of days are likely either limitations of human imagination or the result of being trapped in a looping simulation (which, again, you shouldn't care about from the inside of the simulation).

Personality quizzes are fake frameworks [LW · GW] that help us understand ourselves.

What-character-from-show-X-are-you quizzes, astrology, and personality categorization instruments (think Big-5, Myers-Briggs, Magic the Gathering colors, etc.) are perennially popular. I think a good question is to ask, why do humans seem to like this stuff so much that even fairly skeptical folks tend to object not to categorization but that the categorization of any particular system is bad?

My stab at an answer: humans are really confused about themselves, and are interested in things that seem to have even a little explanatory power to help them become less confused about who they are. Metaphorically, this is like if we lived in a world without proper mirrors, and people got really excited about anything moderately reflective because it let them see themselves, if only a little.

On this view, these kinds of things, while perhaps not very scientific, are useful to folks because they help them understand themselves. This is not to say we can totally rehabilitate all such systems, since often they perform their categorization by mechanisms with very weak causal links that may not even rise above the level of noise (*cough* astrology *cough*), nor that we should be satisfied with personality assessments that involve lots of conflation and don't resolve much confusion, but on the whole we should be happy that these things exist because they help us see our psyches in the absence of proper mental mirrors.

(FWIW, I do think there is a way to polish you mind into a mirror that can see itself and that I have managed to do this to some extent, but that's a bit besides the point I want to make here.)

As I work towards becoming less confused about what we mean when we talk about values, I find that it feels a lot like I'm working on a jigsaw puzzle where I don't know what the picture is. Also all the pieces have been scattered around the room and I have to find the pieces first, digging between couch cushions and looking under the rug and behind the bookcase, let alone figure out how they fit together or what they fit together to describe.

Yes, we have some pieces already and others think they know (infer, guess) what the picture is from those (it's a bear! it's a cat! it's a woman in a fur coat!), and as I work I find it helpful to keep updating my own guess because even when it's wrong it sometimes helps me think of new ways to try combining the pieces or to know what pieces might be missing that I should go look for, but it also often feels like I'm failing all the time because I'm updating rapidly based on new information and that keeps changing my best guess.

I suspect this is a common experience for folks working on problems in AI safety and many other complex problems, so I figured I'd share this metaphor I recently hit on for making sense of what it is like to do this kind of work.

Most of my most useful insights come not from realizing something new and knowing more, but from realizing something ignored and being certain of less.

After seeing another LW user (sorry, forgot who) mention this post in their commenting guidelines, I've decided to change my own commenting guidelines to the following, matching pretty close to the SSC commenting guidelines that I forgot existed until just a couple days ago:

Comments should be at least two of true, useful, and kind, i.e. you believe what you say, you think the world would be worse without this comment, and you think the comment will be positively received.

I like this because it's simple and it says what rather than how. My old guidelines were all about how:

Seek to foster greater mutual understanding and prefer good faith to bad, nurture to combat, collaboration to argument, and dialectic to debate. Do that by:

-aiming to understand the author and their intent, not what you want them to have said or fear that they said

-being charitable about potential misunderstandings, assuming each person is trying their best to be clearly understood and to advance understanding

-resolving disagreement by finding the crux or synthesizing contrary views to sublimate the disagreement

I'm fairly tolerant, but if you're making comments that are actively counterproductive to fruitful conversation by failing to read and think about what someone else is saying I'm likely to ask you to stop and, if you don't, delete your comments and, if you continue, ban you from commenting on my posts.Some behavior that is especially likely to receive warnings, deletions, and bans:

-trying to "score points"

-hitting "applause lights [LW · GW]"

-being contrarian for its own sake

More generally, I think the SSC commenting guidelines might be a good cluster for those of us who want LW comment sections to be "nice" and so mark our posts as norm enforcing. If this catches on this might help deal with finding the few clusters of commenting norms that make people want without having lots of variation between authors.

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/12/automation-so-far-business-as-usual.html

I similarly suspect automation is not really happening in a dramatically different way thus far. Maybe that will change in the future (I think it will), but it's not here yet.

So why so much concern about automation?

I suspect because of something they don't look at in this study much (based on the summary): displacement. People are likely being displaced from jobs into other jobs by automation or the perception of automation and some few of those exit the labor market rather than switch into new jobs. Further, those who do move to new jobs likely disprefer their new jobs because they require different skills, they are less skilled at them immediately after switching, and due to lack of initial skill these new jobs initially pay less than the old jobs. This creates compelling evidence for the automation "destroying" jobs story even though the bigger picture makes it clear that this isn't really happening, in particular because the destroying job story ignores the contrary evidence from what happens after a worker has been in a new job after displacement for a few years and have recovered to pre-displacement levels of wages.

I started showing symptoms and testing positive for COVID on Saturday. I'm now over nearly all the symptoms other than some pain in parts of my body and fatigue.

The curious question in my mind is, what's causing this pain and fatigue and what can be done about it?

My high-level, I'm-not-a-doctor theory is that there's something like generalized inflammation happening in my body, doing things makes it worse, and then my body sends out the signal to rest in order to get the inflammation back down. Once it's down I can do things for a while until it builds up again and I have to stop. This is based on roughly the idea that it just feels like things are a bit sore but then it gets better if I rest and then comes back from doing nothing much more other than moving, sitting, standing, etc.

So maybe just taking anti-inflammatory drugs would help? I've done that when the pain got bad enough, but I didn't notice it doing anything like letting me go longer without needing to rest.

I'm not yet in anything like long-COVID territory here since it's not even been a week, so perhaps it's reasonable to say I just need to keep resting and let my body heal, which I think is good advice to be sure, but I also want to put out a feeler to see if there's something more I could be doing that would be helpful.

Maybe spreading cryptocurrency is secretly the best thing we can do short term to increase AI safety because it increases the cost of purchasing compute needed to build AI. Possibly offset, though, by the incentives to produce better processors for cryptocurrency mining that are also useful for building better AI.

This post suggests a feature idea for LessWrong to me:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Nuw7mLc6DjRY4mwa/the-national-defense-authorization-act-contains-ai [LW · GW]

It would be pretty cool if, instead of a lot of comments that have an order determined by votes or time of posting it were instead possible to write a post that had part that could be commented on directly. So, for example, say the comments for a particular section could live straight in the section rather than down at the bottom. Could be an interesting way to deal with lots of comments on large, structured posts.

I few months ago I found a copy of Staying OK, the sequel to I'm OK—You're OK (the book that probably did the most to popularize transactional analysis), on the street near my home in Berkeley. Since I had previously read Games People Play and had not thought about transactional analysis much since, I scooped it up. I've just gotten around to reading it.

My recollection of Games People Play is that it's the better book (based on what I've read of Staying OK so far). Also, transactional analysis is kind of in the water in ways that are hard to notice so you are probably already kind of familiar with some of the ideas in it, but probably not explicitly in a way you could use to build new models (for example, as far as I can tell notions of strokes and life scripts were popularized by if not fully originated within transactional analysis). So if you aren't familiar with transactional analysis I recommend learning a bit about it since although it's a bit dated and we arguably have better models now, it's still pretty useful to read about to help notice patterns of ways people interact with others and themselves, sort of like the way the most interesting thing about Metaphors We Live By is just pointing out the metaphors and recognizing their presence in speech rather than whether the general theory is maximally good or not.

One things that struck me as I'm reading Staying OK is its discussion of the trackback technique. I can't find anything detailed online about it beyond a very brief summary. It's essentially a multi-step process for dealing with conflicts in internal dialogue, "conflict" here being a technical term referring to crossed communication in the transactional analysis model of the psyche. Or at least that's how it's presented. Looking at it a little closer and reading through examples in the book that are not available online, it's really just poorly explained memory reconsolidation [LW · GW]. To the extent it's working as a method in transactional analysis therapy, it seems to be working because it's tapping into the same mechanisms as Unlocking the Emotional Brain [LW · GW].

I think this is interesting both because it shows how we've made progress and because it shows that transactional analysis (along with a lot of other things), were also getting at stuff that works, but less effectively because they had weaker evidence to build on that was more confounded with other possible mechanisms. To me this counts as evidence that building theory based on phenomenological evidence can work and is better than nothing, but will be supplanted by work that manages to tie in "objective" evidence.

Off-topic riff on "Humans are Embedded Agents Too [LW · GW]"

One class of insights that come with Buddhist practice might be summarized as "determinism", as in, the universe does what it is going to do no matter what the illusory self predicts. Related to this is the larger Buddhist notion of "dependent origination", that everything (in the Hubble volume you find yourself in) is causally linked. This deep deterministic interdependence of the world is hard to appreciate from our subjective experience, because the creation of ontology creates a gulf that cuts us off from direct interaction, causing us to confuse map and territory. Much of the path of practice is learning to unlearn this useful confusion that allows us to do much by focusing on the map so we can make better predictions about the territory.

In AI alignment many difficulties and confusions arise from failing to understand what there is termed embeddedness, the insight that everything happens in the world not alongside it on the other side of a Cartesian veil. The trouble is that dualism is pernicious and intuitive to humans, even as we deny it, and unlearning it is not as simple as reasoning that the problem exists. Our thinking is so polluted with dualistic notions that we struggle to see the world any other way. I suspect if we are to succeed at building safe AI, we'll have to get a lot better at understanding and integrating the insight of embeddedness.

I just noticed something odd. It's not that odd: the cognitive bias that powers it is well know. It's more odd that a company is leaving money on the table by not exploiting it.

I primarily fly United and book rental cars with Avis. United offers to let you buy refundable fares for a little more than the price of a normal ticket. Avis let's you pre-pay for your rental car to receive a discount. These are symmetrical situations presented with a different framing because the default action is different in the two cases: on United the default is to have a non-refundable ticket and with Avis the default is to have an effectively refundable rental (because you don't pay until pickup).

I find that I basically never buy refundable tickets from United and never pre-pay for my rental car. My mind offers these reasons: the refundable airline fare is effectively insurance and not worth it in expectation since I have to money to eat the cost of the ticket (and in practice, because I'm a loyal customer with status, they'll almost always let me convert my fare to future ticket credit rather than take my money), and pre-paying for the rental car takes away flexibility in travel plans I want to have.

But this is crazy! I should be pre-paying for the rental car if I'm effectively doing the same for the flight. The situation is basically the same. Yet I don't because of which things is the default action.

So what's odd is that United is not taking advantage of this to make refundable fares the default and let me choose a discount to get a non-refundable fare. Maybe now that I'm used to the current situation I would always choose the non-refundable fare, but they'd likely get more people to buy them if it was the default action.

I wonder why they don't? My best guesses are regulation preventing that and price competition making it more worthwhile to make the cheapest fare possible the default and sell everything else as an add-on rather than offering discounts. But then why is the rental car market different?

Isolate the Long Term Future

Maybe this is worthy of a post, but I'll do a short version here to get it out.

• In modern computer systems we often isolate things to increase reliability.
• If one isolated system goes down, the others keep working.
• Examples:
  • multiple data centers spread around the world
  • using multiple servers that all do the same thing running in those different data centers
  • replicating data between data centers
  • isolating customers within a single data center so if one goes down only the customers using that data center are affected
• We can do the same kind of thing with the long term future of humanity.
  • We can send out "seed probes" to create offshoots in other parts of the universe.
  • Eventually those parts of the universe will recede beyond each others Hubble volume.
  • Then even if one Hubble volume suffers existential catastrophe, the others keep going.
• On shorter time scales, we can aim to increase isolation, possibly also using replication, to get better resiliency of the future.
  • Some shorter term examples include
    • isolated communities on Earth that are self sufficient
    • extra-planetary colonies
    • and eventually extra galactic colonies, that eventually become fully isolated

Psychological Development and Age

One of the annoying things about developmental psychology is disentangling age-related from development-related effects.

For example, as people age they tend to get more settled or to more have their lives sorted out. I'm pointing at the thing where kids and teenages and adults in their 20s tend to have a lot of uncertainty about what they are going to do with their lives and that slowly decreases over time.

A simple explanation is that it's age related, or maybe more properly experience related. As a person lives more years, tries more things, and better learns the limits of what they can achieve they become more settled into the corner of the world in which they can successfully operate. We should expect people with less years of experience to be more confused about themselves and older people to be less confused because they had more years to figure things out. This need not invoke developmental psychology, just simple accumulation of evidence.

But counter examples of resigned young people and curious and adventurous old people abound. But perhaps we can explain these simply in terms of contexts that cause that, and if a person were put in a different context they might behave differently and in a more age anticipated way.

Where I think developmental psychology helps is in understanding subtler differences in how people behave and why. For example, is a person content with their life because they've tried a bunch of things and given up stretching too far because they know it'll just be hard to do new things and they'll probably fail so it's not worth the effort, or are they content with their life because they trust themselves. It can be kinda hard to tell from the outside and you might not even be able to tell with an intervention, say by making something easier for them so they can do some new thing that they previously could not do easily and seeing how they respond.

This is one of the challenges I think we face in talking about developmental psychology. It seems a useful model for explaining many aspects of how minds progress over time, but it's hard to figure out what's conflated with things that would happen in a world with no developmental psychology beyond simple learning.

(Don't worry; I haven't suddenly found developmental psychology less useful, just musing a bit on an issue that comes up often of the form "this developmental model sounds fine as far as it goes, but what about this simpler explanation".)

ADHD Expansionism

I'm not sure I fully endorse this idea, hence short form, but it's rattling around inside my head and maybe we can talk about it?

I feel like there's a kind of ADHD (or ADD) expansionism happening, where people are identifying all kinds of things as symptoms of ADHD, especially subclinical ADHD.

On the one had this seems good in the sense that performing this kind of expansionism seems to actually be helping people by giving them permission to be the way they are via a diagnosis and giving them strategies they can try to live their life better.

On the other I feel like it's terrible in terms of actually diagnosing ADHD. It might help to explain why I think that.

Much of what I see that I'm terming ADHD expansionism looks to me like taking normal human behavior that is ill fitted to the modern environment and then pathologizing it. As best I can tell, it's normal and adaptive for humans to exhibit various behaviors that that get labeled as ADHD symptoms, like flittering between multiple activities, hyperfocus on things the mind finds important but doesn't necessarily endorse as important (S1 important things, not S2 important), understimulation, overstimulation, and otherwise finding it hard to focus on a one thing.

All of that sounds like normal, adaptive, forager behavior to me. Some of it became maladaptive during the farming era, but not especially, and now in the industrial era are less adaptive.

Thus I think ADHD suffers from the same issue as codependency does, in that if you start to describe the symptoms you quickly realize 90% of humanity has this "problem" and so I think we're doing ourselves a disservice by considering it a pathology because it fails to acknowledge that most of these mental habits are just what it's like to be a normal human and that its our conditions that are unusual and that we are struggling to function within.

I don't see this as cause to throw out modern industrial society, but rather that we need to think about ways to adapt our systems to better accommodate real humans rather than the idealized ones of high modernism.

On the ground level, yes, we may still need to do much to personally intervene against ADHD-like symptoms, just as we may need to do against our natural tendency towards codependency, but I think there's something being lost by even talking about it this way. Rather, we need to think of it as how do we cope with being humans engaged in systems that ask us to behave in unusual ways, and see the systems as the broken things, not ourselves. It's not that everyone has ADHD or codependency; rather, it's that our systems pathologize normal behavior because they are confused about what is typical.

You're always doing your best

I like to say "you're always doing your best", especially as kind words to folks when they are feeling regret.

What do I mean by that, though? Certainly you can look back at what you did in any given situation and imagine having done something that would have had a better outcome.

What I mean is that, given the all conditions under which you take any action, you always did the best you could. After all, if you could have done something better given all the conditions you would have.

The key is that all the conditions include the entire history of the world up to the present moment, and so that necessarily includes your life history, the life history of others, the physical environment, your emotional state, how tired you were, how your brain works, etc.. The trick is that when you condition your actions so fully there's no room left for any counterfactuals, for you could have done nothing else!

As you might guess, I'm proposing a deterministic outlook on the world. I won't really argue that too much here, other than to say that if you look long and hard enough at free will it dissolves into an after-the-fact illusion contingent on how your brain compresses reality and models yourself and that this is robust to quantum effects since even if quantum effects result in random outcomes you nonetheless only ever find yourself in a single history where some particular thing happened regardless of how it happened.

The immediate corollary of all this is that you also are always doing your worst, only that doesn't land too well when someone feels regret.

I like this insight because, fully taken it, it dissolves regret. Not that you can't imagine having done better, propose things you might do differently in the future, and then try them to see what happens and maybe actually do better than you previously did. Rather, it dissolves regret because regret hinges on feeling as if a counterfactually could have really happened. Once you deeply believe that counterfactuals are not real, i.e. they are purely of the map and have no existence in the territory independent of the map, regret just has no way to come into existence.

This doesn't mean you can't still feel related emotions like remorse, especially if you realize you were negligent and had a responsibility to have done better but didn't, but that's different than clinging to a desire to have done something different; remorse is owning that you did something less than what you were capable of under the circumstances and might reasonably be asked to make amends.

So next time you feel regret, try reminding yourself it couldn't have gone any other way.

I feel like something is screwy with the kerning on LW over the past few weeks. Like I keep seeing sentences that look like they are missing space between the period and the start of the next sentence but when I check closely they are not. For whatever reason this doesn't seem to show in the editor, only in the displayed text.

I think I've only noticed this with comments and short form, but maybe it's happening other places? Anyway, wanted to see if others are experiencing this and raise a flag for the LW team that a change they made may be behaving in unexpected ways.

Story stats are my favorite feature of Medium. Let me tell you why.

I write primarily to impact others. Although I sometimes choose to do very little work to make myself understandable to anyone who is more than a few inferential steps behind me and then write out on a far frontier of thought, nonetheless my purpose remains sharing my ideas with others. If it weren't for that, I wouldn't bother to write much at all, and certainly not in the same way as I do when writing for others. Thus I care instrumentally a lot about being able to assess if I am having the desired impact so that I can improve in ways that might help serve my purposes.

LessWrong provides some good, high detail clues about impact: votes and comments. Comments on LW are great, and definitely better in quality and depth of engagement than what I find other places. Votes are also relatively useful here, caveat the weaknesses of LW voting I've talked about before. If I post something on LW and it gets lots of votes (up or down) or lots of comments, relative to what other posts receive, then I'm confident people have read what I wrote and I impacted them in some way, whether or not it was in the way I had hoped.

That's basically where story stats stop on LessWrong. Here's a screen shot of the info I get from Medium:

For each story you can see a few things here: views, reads, read ratio, and fans, which is basically likes. I also get an email every week telling me about the largest updates to my story stats, like how many additional views, reads, and fans a story had in the last week.

If I click the little "Details" link under a story name I get more stats: average read time, referral sources, internal vs. external views (external views are views on RSS, etc.), and even a list of "interests" associated with readers who read my story.All of this is great. Each week I get a little positive reward letting me know what I did that worked, what didn't, and most importantly to me, how much people are engaging with things I wrote.

I get some of that here on LessWrong, but not all of it. Although I've bootstrapped myself now to a point where I'll keep writing even absent these motivational queues, I still find this info useful for understanding what things I wrote that people liked best or found most useful and what they found least useful. Some of that is mirrored here by things like votes, but it doesn't capture all of it.

I think it would be pretty cool if I could see more stats about my posts on LessWrong similar to what I get on Medium, especially view and read counts (knowing that "reads" is a ultimately a guess based on some users allowing Javascript that lets us guess that they read it).