LessWrong 2.0 Reader

Does buying shorter-term OTM derivatives each year not work here?

Specific examples would be nice. Not sure if I understand correctly, but I imagine something like this:

You always choose A over B. You have been doing it for such long time that you forgot why. Without reflecting about this directly, it just seems like there probably is a rational reason or something. But recently, either accidentally or by experiment, you chose B... and realized that experiencing B (or expecting to experience B) creates unpleasant emotions. So now you know that the emotions were the real cause of choosing A over B all that time.

(This is probably wrong, but hey, people say that the best way to elicit answer is to provide a wrong one.)

I like comments about other users' experiences for similar reasons why I like OP. I think maybe the ideal such comment would identify itself more clearly as an experience report, but I'd rather have the report than not.

We are trying our best to honor mana donations!

If you are inactive you have until the rest of the year to donate at the old rate. If you want to donate all your investments without having to sell each individually, we are offering you a loan to do that.

We removed the charity cap of $10k donations per month, which is going beyond what we previous communicated.

Author's note: This chapter took a really long time to write. Unlike previous chapters in the book, this one covers a lot more stuff in less detail, but I still needed to get the details right, so it took a long time to both figure out what I really wanted to say and to make sure I wasn't saying things that I wouldn't upon reflection regret having said because they were based on facts that I don't believe or I had simply gotten wrong.

It's likely still not the best version of this chapter it could be, but at this point I think I've made all the key points I wanted to make here, so I'm publishing the draft now and expect this one to need a lot of love from an editor later on.

I don't think the original comment was a troll, but I also don't think it was a helpful contribution on this post. OP specifically framed the post as their own experience, not a universal cure. Comments explaining why it won't work for a specific person aren't relevant.

What you probably mean is "completely unexpected", "surprising" or something similar

I think it means the more specific "a discovery that if it counterfactually hadn't happened, wouldn't have happened for a long time". I think this is roughly the "counterfactual" in "counterfactual impact", but I agree not the more widespread one.

It would be great to have a single word for this that was clearer.

If we could push a button to raise at a reasonable valuation, we would do that and back the mana supply at the old rate. But it's not that easy. Raising takes time and is uncertain.

Carson's prior is right that VC backed companies can quickly die if they have no growth -- it can be very difficult to raise in that environment.

Noteably, the mainline approach for catching doesn't involve any internals usage at all, let alone labeling a bunch of things.

This was indeed my impression (except for potentially using steering vectors, which I think are mentioned in one of the sections in 'Catching AIs red-handed'), but I think not using any internals might be overconservative / might increase the monitoring / safety tax too much (I think this is probably true more broadly of the current control agenda framing).

So, it sounds like you'd be in favor of a 1-year pause or slowdown then, but not a 10-year?

That depends on the benefits that we get from a 1-year pause. I'd be open to the policy, but I'm not currently convinced that the benefits would be large enough to justify the costs.

Also, I object to your side-swipe at longtermism

I didn't side-swipe at longtermism, or try to dunk on it. I think longtermism is a decent philosophy, and I consider myself a longtermist in the dictionary sense as you quoted. I was simply talking about people who aren't "fully committed" to the (strong) version of the philosophy.