LessWrong 2.0 Reader

I’m pretty interested in this as an exercise of ‘okay yep a bunch of those problems seem real. Can we make conceptual or mechanism-design progress on them in like an afternoon of thought?’

Here's the best explanation + study I've seen of Dunning-Krueger-ish graphs: https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/is-the-dunning-kruger-effect-real-or-are-unskilled-people-more-rational-than-it-seems 

Their analysis suggests that their data is pretty well-explained by a combination of a "Closer-To-The-Average Effect" (which may or may not be rational — there are multiple possible rational reasons for it) and a "Better-Than-Average Effect" that appear ~uniformly across the board (but getting swamped by the "closer-to-the-average effect" at the upper end).

as I understand it, the AI capabilities necessary for Intelligence amplification via BCI already exist, and we simply need to show/encourage people how to start using it 

If a person were to provide a state-of-the-art model with a month's worth of their data typically collected by our eyes and ears and the ability to interject in real time in conversations via earbuds or speaker. 

Such an intervention wouldn't be the superhuman "team of geniuses in your datacenter" but it would be more helpful than even some of the best personal assistant's (and 100x less expensive). Especially when you consider adding new data inputs and outputs. Like biometrics EEG readings, TFUS (werable  non-invasive brain reading and brain stimulation), smart home devices and music generation. 

If you read the entire story, you'll find that the Demon King (who, by the way, is called "she" a whole bunch of times througout most of the story), never has any intention or expectation of taking the fortress. That's probably the only "military secret" that really matters. And she doesn't sell that secret.

it helped them anticipate the Demon King’s next moves – it's not the market's fault that they couldn't convert foresight into operational superiority

The demon king only made those moves to profit from the market, they wouldn't have been made otherwise

I never give advice. Instead, everything is Socratic Dialogue.

In theorizing why this works, I've come to think of it in terms of inferential distances [LW · GW]. The distance between somebody else's net experiences and my own is so vast, that giving advice is futile (and more of an indication that the advice-giver wants to feel self-important).

People are experts on themselves. Given enough space and gentle enough questions from an active listener, they often have the capacity to solve their own problems.

How does this relate to the degree of integration into an economy?

You can eat just fine in any developed country via picking up odd jobs here and there. But clearly a managing director at JP Morgan overseeing an important desk is at a qualitatively different level.

I never ask about the past and I never dig into trauma. I focus on what they’re predicting in the present.

^That's what surprised me about Dr. Bessel van der Kolk's book The Body Keeps the Score: Brain, Mind, and Body in the Healing of Trauma. There's not an absolute need to unearth and relive the past---doing so can retraumatize people and make recovery more difficult. (Learning people's stories are so delightful, so I often have to restrain myself from asking prying questions to fulfill my curiosity when I'm intending to help people heal).

Instead, the focus of healing (from many forms of therapy) is more about understanding the present moment and how we relate to it.

i'd pick dust & youtube. I intrinsically value fairness

Have you check if you are receiving some subsidies for it?

I think natural gas in the US is effectively subsidized by underinvesting in export infrastructure? This country produces a lot of gas.