LessWrong 2.0 Reader

The obsessive autists who have spent 10,000 hours researching the topic and writing boring articles in support of the mainstream position are left ignored.

It seems like you're spanning up three different categories of thinkers: Academics, public intellectuals, and "obsessive autists".

Notice that the examples you give overlap in those categories: Hanson and Caplan are academics (professors!), while the Natália Mendonça is not an academic, but is approaching being a public intellectual by now(?). Similarly, Scott Alexander strikes me as being in the "public intellectual" bucket much more than any other bucket.

So your conclusion, as far as I read the article, should be "read obsessive autists" instead of "read obsessive autists that support the mainstream view". This is my current best guess—"obsessive autists" are usually not under much strong pressure to say politically palatable things, very unlike professors.

The other problem is that MWI is up against various subjective and non-realist interpretations, so it's not it's not the case that you can build an ontological model of every interpretation.

Counterfactual means, that if something would not have happened something else would have happened. It's a key concept in Judea Pearl's work on causality. 

Sometimes a vague phrasing is not an inaccurate demarkation of a more precise concept, but an accurate demarkation of an imprecise concept

True. But for that you need there to exist another mind almost identical to yours except for that one thing. 

In the question "how much of my memories can I delete while retaining my thread of subjective experience?" I don't expect there to be an objective answer. 

I know a child who often has this reaction to negative consequences, natural or imposed. I'd welcome discussion on what works well for that mindset. I don't have any insight, it's not how my mind works.

It seems like very very small consequences can help a bit. Also trying to address the anxiety with OTC supplements like Magnesium Glycinate and lavender oil.

My current main cruxes:

1. Will AI get takeover capability? When?
2. Single ASI or many AGIs?
3. Will we solve technical alignment?
4. Value alignment, intent alignment, or CEV?
5. Defense>offense or offense>defense?
6. Is a long-term pause achievable?

If there is reasonable consensus on any one of those, I'd much appreciate to know about it. Else, I think these should be research priorities.

Counter point: We would likely guess that the graph of rent to income would look similar. 

This is actually corrected on the Epoch website but not here (https://epochai.org/blog/the-longest-training-run)

The reason why EY&co were relatively optimistic (p(doom) ~ 50%) before AlphaGo was their assumption "to build intelligence, you need some kind of insight in theory of intelligence". They didn't expect that you can just take sufficiently large approximator, pour data inside, get intelligent behavior and have no idea about why you get intelligent behavior.