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Without a clear definition of "winning,"

This is part of the problem we're pointing out in the post. We've encountered claims of this "winning" flavor that haven't been made precise, so we survey different things "winning" could mean more precisely, and argue that they're inadequate for figuring out which norms of rationality to adopt.

The former can be sufficient—e.g. there are good theoretical researchers who have never done empirical work themselves.

In hindsight I think "close conjunction" was too strong—it's more about picking up the ontologies and key insights from empirical work, which can be possible without following it very closely.

I think it would be better to form a big winner-take-all bloc [LW · GW]. With proportional voting, the number of electoral votes at stake will be only a small fraction of the total, so the per-voter influence of CA and TX would probably remain below the national average.

I don't see any reason to structure this agreement as an open-ended compact other states can join instead of a bilateral agreement between just California and Texas as proposed.

(The same reasoning applied to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would have its membership closed as soon as they reach a majority in electoral votes, and then completely disregard the votes of any state that didn't sign on, voting in whoever gets the most votes in member states.)

Proof that the quoted bookkeeping rule works, for the exact case:

• The original DAG $G$ asserts $P\left[X\right]={\prod }_{i}P\left[X_i|X_{p{a}^G\left(i\right)}\right]$
• If $G^{\prime }$ just adds an edge from $j$ to $k$, then $G^{\prime }$ says $P\left[X\right]=P[X_k|X_{p{a}^G\left(k\right)},X_j]{\prod }_{i\ne k}P\left[X_i|X_{p{a}^G\left(i\right)}\right]$
• The original DAG's assertion $P\left[X\right]={\prod }_{i}P\left[X_i|X_{p{a}^G\left(i\right)}\right]$ also implies $P[X_k|X_{p{a}^G\left(k\right)},X_j]=P\left[X_k|X_{p{a}^G\left(k\right)}\right]$, and therefore implies $G^{\prime }$'s assertion $P\left[X\right]=P[X_k|X_{p{a}^G\left(k\right)},X_j]{\prod }_{i\ne k}P\left[X_i|X_{p{a}^G\left(i\right)}\right]$.

The approximate case then follows by the new-and-improved Bookkeeping Theorem [LW(p) · GW(p)].

Not sure where the disconnect/confusion is.

You say solar is getting cheaper, but it is only the panels that are getting cheaper. They will continue to get even cheaper, but this is not relevant to retrofitting individual houses, where the cost is already dominated by labor. As the cost of labor dominates, economies of scale in labor will be more relevant.

To a first approximation, solar is legal for individual residences and illegal on a larger scale.

Maybe you could learn something by looking at the public filings, but you didn't look at them. By regulation, not by being public, it has to spend proportionate to its income, but whether it is spending on transmission or generation is a fiction dictated by the regulator. It may well be that its transmission operating costs are much lower than its price and that a change of prices would be viable without any improvement in efficiency. This is exactly what I would how I would expect the company to set prices if it controlled the regulator: to extract as much money as possible on transmission to minimize competition. I don't know how corrupt the regulator is, but that ignorance is exactly my point.

Depending on the posts I think you could argue they're comparable to one of thosebother source types I listed.

I asked for further details on the 10th point and Claude listed a bunch of stuff I’ve absolutely never heard of. I’d say it’s probably related to meditation if I had to guess. Here’s that.

—

Claude Let me break down Time Perception Management into its deeper components, as this is one of the most subtle yet powerful micro-skills...

1. Understanding Psychological Time vs Clock Time

• How different mental states alter time perception
  • Flow states can make hours feel like minutes
  • Anxiety can make minutes feel like hours
• Learning to intentionally shift between time perspectives
  • When to use event-based time vs clock-based time
  • How to enter "timeless" states for creative work
• Reading your internal clock
  • Understanding your natural rhythms
  • Recognizing when time perception is distorted by emotions

2. Managing Time Horizons

• Developing multiple concurrent time frames
  • Thinking in day/month/year/decade simultaneously
  • Balancing immediate tasks with long-term vision
• Time horizon switching
  • When to zoom out to years
  • When to zoom in to minutes
  • How to maintain strategic clarity while handling tactics
• Future-self continuity
  • Techniques for making future consequences feel real
  • Building strong mental connections to your future self

3. Chronotype Optimization

• Understanding your natural energy patterns
  • Peak creative hours
  • Peak analytical hours
  • Recovery periods
• Designing your life around your chronotype
  • When to schedule different types of work
  • How to handle obligations that fight your natural rhythm
• Seasonal adjustments
  • Adapting to changing daylight
  • Modifying routines for different seasons

4. Timeline Compression and Expansion Techniques

• How to make time feel longer when needed
  • Breaking experiences into smaller chunks
  • Increasing novelty to slow perceived time
  • Using attention to expand moments
• How to make time feel shorter when beneficial
  • Chunking similar tasks
  • Creating flow states
  • Using routine to speed through necessary tasks

5. Personal Tempo Awareness

• Understanding your natural pace
  • Speaking tempo
  • Walking pace
  • Decision-making speed
• Tempo matching and mismatching
  • When to match others' tempo
  • When to intentionally mismatch
  • How to set the tempo in group situations
• Rhythm management
  • Creating sustainable work rhythms
  • Building in recovery cycles
  • Recognizing when to speed up or slow down

6. Advanced Applications:

• Using time perception in negotiations
  • Creating or relieving time pressure
  • Understanding how others perceive time
• Memory engineering
  • Making good times feel longer in memory
  • Making difficult times feel shorter in memory
• Social time management
  • Managing group time perception
  • Creating shared time experiences
• Decision timing
  • Understanding when to decide quickly vs slowly
  • Recognizing optimal timing windows

This skill set is particularly valuable because most people are unconscious of how their time perception affects their decisions and experiences. Mastering it gives you significant advantages in:

• Personal productivity
• Emotional regulation
• Strategic planning
• Social influence
• Life satisfaction

Would you like me to elaborate on any particular aspect? Or shall we explore how this connects with some of the other micro-skills we discussed?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​