LessWrong 2.0 Reader

Well they have a much larger donation than has been spent so there were ways to avoid this abrupt change:

"Manifold for Good has received grants totaling $500k from the Center for Effective Altruism (via the FTX Future Fund) to support our charitable endeavors."

Manifold has donated $200k so far. So there is $300k left. Why not at least, say "we will change the rate at which mana can be donated when we burn through this money" 

(via https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Charitable-donation-program-668d55f4ded147cf8cf1282a007fb005 )

Carson:
 

Ppl don't seem to understand that Manifold could literally not exist in a year or 2 if they don't find a product market fit

Carson's response:

There was no implicit contract that 100 mana was worth $1 IMO. This was explicitly not the case given CFTC restrictions?

Carson's response:

weren't donations always flagged to be a temporary thing that may or may not continue to exist? I'm not inclined to search for links but that was my understanding.

seems like they are breaking an explicit contract (by pausing donations on ~a weeks notice)

seems like they were breaking a strong implicit contract (that mana could be donated at 100 mana to a dollar)

But I do think, intuitively, GPT-5-MAIA might e.g. make 'catching AIs red-handed' using methods like in this comment significantly easier/cheaper/more scalable.

Noteably, the mainline approach for catching doesn't involve any internals usage at all, let alone labeling a bunch of things.

I agree that this model might help in performing various input/output experiments to determine what made a model do a given suspicious action.

seems breaking an implicity contract (that 100 mana was worth a dollar) 

Nathan and Carson's Manifold discussion.

Threaded discussion

"Mise En Place", "[i]nterviews and kitchen walkthroughs:

Qualifies as tacit knowledge, in that people are showing what they're doing that you seldom have a chance to watch first-hand. Reasonably entertaining, seems like you could learn a bit here.

Caveat: most of the dishes are really high-class/meat/fish etc. that you aren't very likely to ever cook yourself, and knowledge seems difficult to transfer.