LessWrong 2.0 Reader

Of course, there are rumors and claims that deep learning is hitting a wall, which seems important for your timelines if true.

Three straight lines on a log-log plot
Yo ho ho 3e23 FLOP!
Predicting text taught quite a lot
Yo ho ho 3e23 FLOP!


(We are roughly around the 5-year anniversary of some very consequential discoveries)

Opinions on whether it's positive/negative to build tools like Cursor / Codebuff / Replit?

I'm asking because it seems fun to build and like there's low hanging fruit to collect in building a competitor to these tools, but also I prefer not destroying the world.

Considerations I've heard:

1. Reducing "scaffolding overhang" is good, specifically to notice if RSPs should trigger a more advanced RSP level
   1. (This depends on the details/quality of the RSP too)
2. There are always reasons to advance capabilities, this isn't even a safety project (unless you count... elicitation?), our bar here should be high
3. Such scaffolding won't add capabilities which might make the AI good at general purpose learning or long term general autonomy. It will be specific to programming, with concepts like "which functions did I look at already" and instructions on how to write high quality tests.
4. Anthropic are encouraging people to build agent scaffolding, and Codebuff was created by a Manifold cofounder [if you haven't heard about it, see here and here]. I'm mainly confused about this, I'd expect both to not want people to advance capabilities (yeah, Anthropic want to stay in the lead and serve as an example, but this seems different). Maybe I'm just not in sync

I have become convinced that nanotech computers are likely way weaker and quite a bit more impractical than Drexler thought, and have also moved up my probability of Drexler just being plain wrong about the impact of nanotech, which if true suggests that the future value may have been overestimated.

The reason why I'm stating this now is because I got a link in discord that talks about why nanotech computers are overrated, and the reason I consider this important is if this generalizes to other nanotech concepts, this suggests that a lot of the future value may have been overestimated based on overestimating nanotech's capabilities:

https://muireall.space/pdf/considerations.pdf#page=17

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oqBJk2Ae3RBegtFfn/my-thoughts-on-nanotechnology-strategy-research-as-an-ea?commentId=WQn4nEH24oFuY7pZy [EA(p) · GW(p)]

https://muireall.space/nanosystems/

Are you aware of the existing work on ignorance priors, for instance the maximum entropy prior (if I remember properly this is Jeffrey’s prior and gives rise to the KT estimator), also the improper prior which effectively places almost all of the weight on 0 and 1? Interestingly, the universal distribution does not include continuous parameters but does end up dominating any computable rule for assigning probabilities, including these families of conjugate priors.

Thank you!

Currently tags seem to only be useful for filtering your track record. I'd like to be able to filter the forecast list by tag.

I agree this would be nice. But try clicking on a tag to see all of your forecasts under it!

My intuition is kind of the opposite - I think EA has a less coherent purpose. It's actually kind of a large tent for animal welfare, longtermism, and global poverty. I think some of the divergence in priorities between EA's is about impact assessment / fact finding, and a lot of ink is spilled on this, but some is probably about values too. I think of EA as very outward-facing, coalitional, and ideally a little pragmatic, so I don't think it's a good basis for an organized totalizing worldview. 

The study of human rationality is a more universal project. It makes sense to have a monastic class that (at least for some years of their life) sets aside politics and refines the craft, perhaps functioning as an impersonal interface when they go out into the world - almost like Bene Gesserit advisors (or a Confessor).

I have thought about building it. The physical building itself would be quite expensive, since the monastery would need to meet many psychological requirements - it would have to be both isolated and starkly beautiful. Also, well-provisioned. So this part would be expensive; and its an expense that EA organizations probably couldn't justify (that is, larger and more extravagant than buying a castle). Of course, most of the difficulty would be in creating the culture - but I think that building the monastery properly would go a long way (if you build it, they will come). 

I really like the idea of milestones, I think seeing the result of each milestones will help create trust in the group, confidence that the end action will succeed and a realization of the real impact the group has. Each CA should probably start with small milestones (posting something on social medias) and ramp things up until the end goal is reached. Seeing actual impact early will definitely keep people engaged and might make the group more cohesive and ambitious.

I suppose you could use models trained before vulnerabilities happen?

"We offer no explanation as to why these architectures seem to work; we attribute their success, as all else, to divine benevolence." -SwiGLU paper.

I think it varies, a few of these are trying "random" things, but mostly they are educated guesses which are then validated empirically. Often there is a spefic problem we want to solve i.e. exploding gradients or O(n^2) attention and then authors try things which may or may not solve/mitigate the problem.