Text whose primary goal is conveying information (as opposed to emotion, experience or aesthetics) should be skimming friendly. Time is expensive, words are cheap. Skimming is a vital mode of engaging with text, either to evaluate whether it deserves a deeper read or to extract just the information you need. As a reader, you should nurture your skimming skills. As a writer, you should treat skimmers as a legitimate and important part of your target audience. Among other things it means:

• Good title and TLDR/abstract
• Clear and useful division into sections
• Putting the high-level picture and conclusions first, the technicalities and detailed arguments later. Never leave the reader clueless about where you’re going with something for a long time.
• Visually emphasize the central points and make them as self-contained as possible. For example, in the statement of mathematical theorems avoid terminology whose definition is hidden somewhere in the bulk of the text.

I propose to call metacosmology the hypothetical field of study which would be concerned with the following questions:

• Studying the space of simple mathematical laws which produce counterfactual universes with intelligent life.
• Studying the distribution over utility-function-space (and, more generally, mindspace) of those counterfactual minds.
• Studying the distribution of the amount of resources available to the counterfactual civilizations, and broad features of their development trajectories.
• Using all of the above to produce a distribution over concretized simulation hypotheses.

This concept is of potential interest for several reasons:

• It can be beneficial to actually research metacosmology, in order to draw practical conclusions. However, knowledge of metacosmology can pose an infohazard, and we would need to precommit not to accept blackmail from potential simulators.
• The metacosmology knowledge of a superintelligent AI determines the extent to which it poses risk via the influence of potential simulators.
• In principle, we might be able to use knowledge of metacosmology in order to engineer an "atheist prior" for the AI that would exclude simulation hypotheses. However, this might be very difficult in practice.

People like Andrew Critch and Paul Christiano have criticized MIRI in the past for their "pivotal act" strategy. The latter can be described as "build superintelligence and use it to take unilateral world-scale actions in a manner inconsistent with existing law and order" (e.g. the notorious "melt all GPUs" example). The critics say (justifiably IMO), this strategy looks pretty hostile to many actors and can trigger preemptive actions against the project attempting it and generally foster mistrust.

Is there a good alternative? The critics tend to assume slow-takeoff multipole scenarios, which makes the comparison with their preferred solutions to be somewhat "apples and oranges". Suppose that we do live in a hard-takeoff singleton world, what then? One answer is "create a trustworthy, competent, multinational megaproject". Alright, but suppose you can't create a multinational megaproject, but you can build aligned AI unilaterally. What is a relatively cooperative thing you can do which would still be effective?

Here is my proposed rough sketch of such a plan^[1]:

• Commit to not make anyone predictably regret supporting the project or not opposing it. This rule is the most important and the one I'm the most confident of by far. In an ideal world, it should be more-or-less sufficient in itself. But in the real world, it might be still useful to provide more tangible details, which the next items try to do.
• Within the bounds of Earth, commit to obey the international law, and local law at least inasmuch as the latter is consistent with international law, with only two possible exceptions (see below). Notably, this allows for actions such as (i) distributing technology that cures diseases, reverses aging, produces cheap food etc. (ii) lobbying for societal improvements (but see superpersuation clause below).
• Exception 1: You can violate any law if it's absolutely necessary to prevent a catastrophe on the scale comparable with a nuclear war or worse, but only to the extent it's necessary for that purpose. (e.g. if a lab is about to build unaligned AI that would kill millions of people and it's not possible to persuade them to stop or convince the authorities to act in a timely manner, you can sabotage it.)^[2]
• Build space colonies. These space colonies will host utopic societies and most people on Earth are invited to immigrate there.
• Exception 2: A person held in captivity in a manner legal according to local law, who faces death penalty or is treated in a manner violating accepted international rules about treatment of prisoners, might be given the option to leave to the colonies. If they exercise this option, their original jurisdiction is permitted to exile them from Earth permanently and/or bar them from any interaction with Earth than can plausibly enable activities illegal according to that jurisdiction^[3].
• Commit to adequately compensate any economy hurt by emigration to the colonies or other disruption by you. For example, if space emigration causes the loss of valuable labor, you can send robots to supplant it.
• Commit to not directly intervene in international conflicts or upset the balance of powers by supplying military tech to any side, except in cases when it is absolutely necessary to prevent massive violations of international law and human rights.
• Commit to only use superhuman persuasion when arguing towards a valid conclusion via valid arguments, in a manner that doesn't go against the interests of the person being persuaded. 

1. ^{^}

   Importantly, this makes stronger assumptions about the kind of AI you can align than MIRI-style pivotal acts. Essentially, it assumes that you can directly or indirectly ask the AI to find good plans consistent with the commitments below, rather than directing it to do something much more specific. Otherwise, it is hard to use Exception 1 (see below) gracefully.

2. ^{^}

   A more conservative alternative is to limit Exception 1 to catastrophes that would spill over to the space colonies (see next item).

3. ^{^}

   It might be sensible to consider a more conservative version which doesn't have Exception 2, even though the implications are unpleasant.

An AI progress scenario which seems possible and which I haven't seen discussed: an imitation plateau.

The key observation is, imitation learning algorithms^[1] might produce close-to-human-level intelligence even if they are missing important ingredients of general intelligence that humans have. That's because imitation might be a qualitatively easier task than general RL. For example, given enough computing power, a human mind becomes realizable from the perspective of the learning algorithm, while the world-at-large is still far from realizable. So, an algorithm that only performs well in the realizable setting can learn to imitate a human mind, and thereby indirectly produce reasoning that works in non-realizable settings as well. Of course, literally emulating a human brain is still computationally formidable, but there might be middle scenarios where the learning algorithm is able to produce a good-enough-in-practice imitation of systems that are not too complex.

This opens the possibility that close-to-human-level AI will arrive while we're still missing key algorithmic insights to produce general intelligence directly. Such AI would not be easily scalable to superhuman. Nevertheless, some superhuman performance might be produced by sped-up simulation, reducing noise in human behavior and controlling the initial conditions (e.g. simulating a human on a good day). As a result, we will have some period of time during which AGI is already here, automation is in full swing, but there's little or no further escalation. At the end of this period, the missing ingredients will be assembled (maybe with the help of AI researchers) and superhuman AI (possibly a fast takeoff) begins.

It's interesting to try and work out the consequences of such a scenario, and the implications on AI strategy.

Here's the sketch of an AIT toy model theorem that in complex environments without traps, applying selection pressure reliably produces learning agents. I view it as an example of Wentworth's "selection theorem [AF · GW]" concept.

Consider any environment $\mu$ of infinite Kolmogorov complexity (i.e. uncomputable). Fix a computable reward function

Suppose that there exists a policy ${\pi }^{\ast }$ of finite Kolmogorov complexity (i.e. computable) that's optimal for $\mu$ in the slow discount limit. That is,

Then, $\mu$ cannot be the only environment with this property. Otherwise, this property could be used to define $\mu$ using a finite number of bits, which is impossible^[1]. Since $\mu$ requires infinitely many more bits to specify than ${\pi }^{\ast }$ and $r$, there has to be infinitely many environments with the same property^[2]. Therefore, ${\pi }^{\ast }$ is a reinforcement learning algorithm for some infinite class of hypothesis.

Moreover, there are natural examples of $\mu$ as above. For instance, let's construct $\mu$ as an infinite sequence of finite communicating infra-RDP [AF · GW] refinements that converges to an unambiguous (i.e. "not infra") environment. Since each refinement involves some arbitrary choice, "most" such $\mu$ have infinite Kolmogorov complexity. In this case, ${\pi }^{\ast }$ exists: it can be any learning algorithm for finite communicating infra-RDP with arbitrary number of states.

Besides making this a rigorous theorem, there are many additional questions for further investigation:

• Can we make similar claims that incorporate computational complexity bounds? It seems that it should be possible to at least constraint our algorithms to be PSPACE in some sense, but not obvious how to go beyond that (maybe it would require the frugal universal prior [AF · GW]).
• Can we argue that ${\pi }^{\ast }$ must be an infra-Bayesian learning algorithm? Relatedly, can we make a variant where computable/space-bounded policies can only attain some part of the optimal asymptotic reward of $\mu$?
• The setting we described requires that all the traps in $\mu$ can be described in a finite number of bits. If this is not the case, can we make a similar sort of an argument that implies ${\pi }^{\ast }$ is Bayes-optimal for some prior over a large hypothesis class?

1. ^{^}

   Probably, making this argument rigorous requires replacing the limit with a particular regret bound. I ignore this for the sake of simplifying the core idea.

2. ^{^}

   There probably is something more precise that can be said about how "large" this family of environment is. For example, maybe it must be uncountable.

I propose a new formal desideratum for alignment: the Hippocratic principle. Informally the principle says: an AI shouldn't make things worse compared to letting the user handle them on their own, in expectation w.r.t. the user's beliefs. This is similar to the dangerousness bound [AF(p) · GW(p)] I talked about before, and is also related to corrigibility. This principle can be motivated as follows. Suppose your options are (i) run a Hippocratic AI you already have and (ii) continue thinking about other AI designs. Then, by the principle itself, (i) is at least as good as (ii) (from your subjective perspective).

More formally, we consider a (some extension of) delegative IRL [LW · GW] setting (i.e. there is a single set of input/output channels the control of which can be toggled between the user and the AI by the AI). Let ${\pi }_u^{\upsilon }$ be the the user's policy in universe $\upsilon$ and ${\pi }_a$ the AI policy. Let $T$ be some event that designates when we measure the outcome / terminate the experiment, which is supposed to happen with probability $1$ for any policy. Let $V^{\upsilon }$ be the value of a state from the user's subjective POV, in universe $\upsilon$. Let ${\mu }^{\upsilon }$ be the environment in universe $\upsilon$. Finally, let $\zeta$ be the AI's prior over universes and $ϵ$ some sufficiently small bound. We require

$$\forall T:E_{\upsilon \sim \zeta }\left[\right(E_{{\mu }^{\upsilon }}^{{\pi }_u^{\upsilon }}\left[V^{\upsilon }\right(T\left)\right]-E_{{\mu }^{\upsilon }}^{{\pi }_a}\left[V^{\upsilon }\right(T\left)\right]{)}_{+}]\le ϵ$$

Here, $V\left(T\right)$ designates the value after event $T$ happens, and $(x{)}_{+}$ is defined to be $0$ for $x<0$ and $x$ otherwise.

I now outline an example of a Hippocratic protocol, which I call Hippocratic timeline-driven learning (HTDL).

Suppose, for simplicity, that the goal is accomplishing some binary task (i.e. we can either succeed or fail). We can imagine the task to be something like "construct a defense system against malign AI". At any given moment, the user reports their subjective timeline: i.e. for, any $t$, the probabilities of success and failure after time $t$, assuming the user will continue working on the task by themselves. We assume the AI can learn a good model of the user's policy and the user's nominal report, but this nominal report might deviate from the true timeline because the system can be corrupted (i.e. the user manipulated to enter false information or the input channel hacked). Moreover, we assume that such corruption counts as failing the task.

The AI operates by maximizing the AI-expectation of the user's (unknown) utility function $E_{\upsilon \sim \zeta }\left[E_{{\mu }^{\upsilon }}^{\pi }\right[U^{\upsilon }\left]\right]$, subject to the Hippocratic principle as a constraint. Since we're working in a delegative setting, the AI can trivially achieve the constraint by always delegating. However, it can do much better than that, by short-term quantilizing w.r.t. the user's reported success probability (with the user's policy serving as baseline). When quantilizing the short-term policy, we can upper bound the probability of corruption via the user's reported probability of short-term failure (which we assume to be low, i.e. we assume the malign AI is not imminent). This allows the AI to find parameters under which quantilization is guaranteed to improve things in expectation. Then, after completing this short-term maneuver, the AI can do another short-term quantilization, and continue in this vein. Essentially, the AI is gradually bending the user's trajectory towards success.

Of course, we can improve the guarantees of such a protocol either by adding more information or by using stronger assumptions (e.g. assume the user is quasi-rational). But timeline-driven short-term quantilization serves as a useful feasibility proof.

This idea was inspired by a correspondence with Adam Shimi.

It seem very interesting and important to understand to what extent a purely "behaviorist" view on goal-directed intelligence is viable. That is, given a certain behavior (policy), is it possible to tell whether the behavior is goal-directed and what are its goals, without any additional information?

Consider a general reinforcement learning settings: we have a set of actions $A$, a set of observations $O$, a policy is a mapping $\pi :(A\times O{)}^{\ast }\to \Delta A$, a reward function is a mapping $r:(A\times O{)}^{\ast }\to [0,1]$, the utility function is a time discounted sum of rewards. (Alternatively, we could use instrumental reward functions [AF · GW].)

The simplest attempt at defining "goal-directed intelligence" is requiring that the policy $\pi$ in question is optimal for some prior and utility function. However, this condition is vacuous: the reward function can artificially reward only behavior that follows $\pi$, or the prior can believe that behavior not according to $\pi$ leads to some terrible outcome.

The next natural attempt is bounding the description complexity of the prior and reward function, in order to avoid priors and reward functions that are "contrived". However, description complexity is only naturally well-defined up to an additive constant. So, if we want to have a crisp concept, we need to consider an asymptotic in which the complexity of something goes to infinity. Indeed, it seems natural to ask that the complexity of the policy should be much higher than the complexity of the prior and the reward function: in this case we can say that the "intentional stance" is an efficient description. However, this doesn't make sense with description complexity: the description "optimal policy for $U$ and $\zeta$" is of size $K\left(U\right)+K\left(\zeta \right)+O\left(1\right)$ ($K\left(x\right)$ stands for "description complexity of $x$").

To salvage this idea, we need to take not only description complexity but also computational complexity into account. [EDIT: I was wrong, and we can get a well-defined concept in the unbounded setting too, see child comment [LW(p) · GW(p)]. The bounded concept is still interesting.] For the intentional stance to be non-vacuous we need to demand that the policy does some "hard work" in order to be optimal. Let's make it formal. Consider any function of the type $f:{\Sigma }^{\ast }\to \Delta \Xi$ where $\Sigma$ and $\Xi$ are some finite alphabets. Then, we can try to represent it by a probabilistic automaton $T:S\times \Sigma \to \Delta (S\times \Xi )$, where $S$ is the finite set space, $T$ is the transition kernel, and we're feeding symbols into the automaton one by one. Moreover, $T$ can be represented as a boolean circuit $R$ and this circuit can be the output of some program $P$ executed by some fixed universal Turing machine. We can associate with this object 5 complexity parameters:

• The description complexity, which is the length of $P$.
• The computation time complexity, which is the size of $R$.
• The computation space complexity, which is the maximum between the depth of $R$ and $\log |S|$.
• The precomputation time complexity, which is the time it takes $P$ to run.
• The precomputation space complexity, which is the space $P$ needs to run.

It is then natural to form a single complexity measure by applying a logarithm to the times and taking a linear combination of all 5 (we apply a logarithm so that a brute force search over $n$ bits is roughly equivalent to hard-coding $n$ bits). The coefficients in this combination represent the "prices" of the various resources (but we should probably fix the price of description complexity to be 1). Of course not all coefficients must be non-vanishing, it's just that I prefer to keep maximal generality for now. We will denote this complexity measure $C$.

We can use such automatons to represent policies, finite POMDP environments and reward functions (ofc not any policy or reward function, but any that can be computed on a machine with finite space). In the case of policies, the computation time/space complexity can be regarded as the time/space cost of applying the "trained" algorithm, whereas the precomputation time/space complexity can be regarded as the time/space cost of training. If we wish, we can also think of the boolean circuit as a recurrent neural network.

We can also use $C$ to define a prior ${\zeta }_0$, by ranging over programs $P$ that output a valid POMDP and assigning probability proportional to $2^{-C}$ to each instance. (Assuming that the environment has a finite state space might seem restrictive, but becomes quite reasonable if we use a quasi-Bayesian setting with quasi-POMDPs that are not meant to be complete descriptions of the environment; for now we won't go into details about this.)

Now, return to our policy $\pi$. Given $g>0$, we define that "$\pi$ has goal-directed intelligence (at least) $g$" when there is a suitable prior $\zeta$ and utility function $U$ s.t. for any policy ${\pi }^{\prime }$, if $E_{\zeta {\pi }^{\prime }}\left[U\right]\ge E_{\zeta \pi }\left[U\right]$ then $C\left({\pi }^{\prime }\right)\ge D_{KL}\left({\zeta }_0||\zeta \right)+C\left(U\right)+g$. When $g=+\infty$ (i.e. no finite automaton can match the expected utility of $\pi$; in particular, this implies $\pi$ is optimal since any policy can be approximated by a finite automaton), we say that $\pi$ is "perfectly goal-directed". Here, $D_{KL}\left({\zeta }_0||\zeta \right)$ serves as a way to measure the complexity of $\zeta$, which also ensures $\zeta$ is non-dogmatic in some rather strong sense.

[EDIT: if we fix $U$ and $\zeta$ then $g$ is essentially the same as Yudkowsky's definition of optimization power [AF · GW] if we regard the policy as the "outcome" and use $2^{-C}$ as our measure on the space of outcomes.]

With this definition we cannot "cheat" by encoding the policy into the prior or into the utility function, since that would allow no complexity difference. Therefore this notion seems like a non-trivial requirement on the policy. On the other hand, this requirement does hold sometimes, because solving the optimization problem can be much more computationally costly than just evaluating the utility function or sampling the prior.

The recent success of AlphaProof updates me in the direction of "working on AI proof assistants is a good way to reduce AI risk". If these assistants become good enough, it will supercharge agent foundations research^[1] and might make the difference between success and failure. It's especially appealing that it leverages AI capability advancement for the purpose of AI alignment in a relatively^[2] safe way, thereby the deeper we go into the danger zone the greater the positive impact^[3].

EDIT: To be clear, I'm not saying that working on proof assistants in e.g. DeepMind is net positive. I'm saying that a hypothetical safety-conscious project aiming to create proof assistants for agent foundations research, that neither leaks dangerous knowledge nor repurposes it for other goals, would be net positive.

1. ^{^}

   Of course, agent foundation research doesn't reduce to solving formally stated mathematical problems. A lot of it is searching for the right formalizations. However, obtaining proofs is a critical arc in the loop.

2. ^{^}

   There are some ways for proof assistants to feed back into capability research, but these effects seem weaker: at present capability advancement is not primarily driven by discovering theorems, and if this situation changes it would mean we now actually know something about what we're doing, which would be great news in itself.

3. ^{^}

   Until we become saturated on proof search and the bottlenecks are entirely elsewhere.

A thought inspired by this [LW(p) · GW(p)] thread. Maybe we should have a standard template for a code of conduct for organizations, that we will encourage all rational-sphere and EA orgs to endorse. This template would include, never making people sign non-disparagement agreements (and maybe also forbidding other questionable practices that surfaced in recent scandals). Organizations would be encouraged to create their own codes based on the template and commit to them publicly (and maybe even in some legally binding manner). This flexibility means we don't need a 100% consensus about what has to be in the code, but also if e.g. a particular org decides to remove a particular clause, that will be publicly visible and salient.

Epistemic status: Leaning heavily into inside view, throwing humility to the winds.

Imagine TAI is magically not coming (CDT-style counterfactual^[1]). Then, the most notable-in-hindsight feature of modern times might be the budding of mathematical metaphysics (Solomonoff induction, AIXI, Yudkowsky's "computationalist metaphilosophy"^[2], UDT, infra-Bayesianism...) Perhaps, this will lead to an "epistemic revolution" comparable only with the scientific revolution in magnitude. It will revolutionize our understanding of the scientific method (probably solving the interpretation of quantum mechanics^[3], maybe quantum gravity, maybe boosting the soft sciences). It will solve a whole range of philosophical questions, some of which humanity was struggling with for centuries (free will, metaethics, consciousness, anthropics...)

But, the philosophical implications of the previous epistemic revolution were not so comforting (atheism, materialism, the cosmic insignificance of human life)^[4]. Similarly, the revelations of this revolution might be terrifying^[5]. In this case, it remains to be seen which will seem justified in hindsight: the Litany of Gendlin, or the Lovecraftian notion that some knowledge is best left alone (and I say this as someone fully committed to keep digging into this mine of Khazad-dum).

Of course, in the real world, TAI is coming.

Probably not too original but I haven't seen it clearly written anywhere.

There are several ways to amplify imitators with different safety-performance tradeoffs. This is something to consider when designing IDA-type solutions.

Amplifying by objective time: The AI is predicting what the user(s) will output after thinking about a problem for a long time. This method is the strongest, but also the least safe. It is the least safe because malign AI might exist in the future, which affects the prediction, which creates an attack vector for future malign AI to infiltrate the present world. We can try to defend by adding a button for "malign AI is attacking", but that still leaves us open to surprise takeovers in which there is no chance to press the button.

Amplifying by subjective time: The AI is predicting what the user(s) will output after thinking about a problem for a short time, where in the beginning they are given the output of a similar process that ran for one iteration less. So, this simulates a "groundhog day" scenario where the humans wake up in the same objective time period over and over without memory of the previous iterations but with a written legacy. This is weaker than amplifying by objective time, because learning previous results is an overhead, and illegible intuitions might be hard to transmit. This is safer than amplifying by objective time, but if there is some probability of malign AI created in the short time period, there is still an attack vector. The malign AI leakage in this method is roughly proportional to subjective time of simulation times the present rate of malign AI takeover, as opposed to amplification by objective time where leakage is proportional to subjective time of simulation times some average future rate of malign AI takeover. However, by the time we are able to create this benign AI, the present rate of malign AI takeover might also be considerable.

Amplifying by probability: We allow the user(s) to choose "success" or "failure" (or some continuous metric) after completing their work, and make the AI skew the distribution of predictions toward success. This is similar to amplifying by subjective time without any transmission of information. It is weaker and about as safe. The potential advantage is, lower sample complexity: the AI only needs to have a reliable distribution of outcomes after the initial state instead of subsequent states.

Amplifying by parallelization: The AI is predicting the output of many copies of the user working together, by having strictly defined interfaces between the copies, over a time period similar to real time. For example, we can imagine a hierarchical organization where each person gives subtasks to their subordinates. We can then simulate such an organization with a copy of some subset of users in each role. To do this, the AI only needs to learn what a given subset of users would do given a particular task from their supervisors and particular results by their subordinates. This method is weaker than previous methods since it requires that the task at hand can be parallelized. But, it is also the safest since the rate of malign AI takeover is only amplified by $O\left(1\right)$ compared to the background. [EDIT: Actually, it's not safer than subjective time because the AI would sample the external world independently for each node in the organization. To avoid this, we would need to somehow define a correspondence between the outcome sets of worlds in which the user was queried at different nodes, and I don't know how to do this.]

A complete solution can try to combine all of those methods, by simulating a virtual organization where the members can control which method is applied at every point. This way they can strive for the optimal risk-performance balance: parallelize everything that can be parallelized and amplify otherwise tasks that cannot be parallelized, change the subjective/objective time balance based on research into malign AI timelines etc.

I have [AF(p) · GW(p)] repeatedly [AF(p) · GW(p)] argued [AF(p) · GW(p)] for a departure from pure Bayesianism that I call "quasi-Bayesianism". But, coming from a LessWrong-ish background, it might be hard to wrap your head around the fact Bayesianism is somehow deficient. So, here's another way to understand it, using Bayesianism's own favorite trick: Dutch booking!

Consider a Bayesian agent Alice. Since Alice is Bayesian, ey never randomize: ey just follow a Bayes-optimal policy for eir prior, and such a policy can always be chosen to be deterministic. Moreover, Alice always accepts a bet if ey can choose which side of the bet to take: indeed, at least one side of any bet has non-negative expected utility. Now, Alice meets Omega. Omega is very smart so ey know more than Alice and moreover ey can predict Alice. Omega offers Alice a series of bets. The bets are specifically chosen by Omega s.t. Alice would pick the wrong side of each one. Alice takes the bets and loses, indefinitely. Alice cannot escape eir predicament: ey might know, in some sense, that Omega is cheating em, but there is no way within the Bayesian paradigm to justify turning down the bets.

A possible counterargument is, we don't need to depart far from Bayesianism to win here. We only need to somehow justify randomization, perhaps by something like infinitesimal random perturbations of the belief state (like with reflective oracles). But, in a way, this is exactly what quasi-Bayesianism does: a quasi-Bayes-optimal policy is in particular Bayes-optimal when the prior is taken to be in Nash equilibrium of the associated zero-sum game. However, Bayes-optimality underspecifies the policy: not every optimal reply to a Nash equilibrium is a Nash equilibrium.

This argument is not entirely novel: it is just a special case of an environment that the agent cannot simulate, which is the original motivation for quasi-Bayesianism. In some sense, any Bayesian agent is dogmatic: it dogmatically beliefs that the environment is computationally simple, since it cannot consider a hypothesis which is not. Here, Omega exploits this false dogmatic belief.

Game theory is widely considered the correct description of rational behavior in multi-agent scenarios. However, real world agents have to learn, whereas game theory assumes perfect knowledge, which can be only achieved in the limit at best. Bridging this gap requires using multi-agent learning theory to justify game theory, a problem that is mostly open (but some results exist). In particular, we would like to prove that learning agents converge to game theoretic solutions such as Nash equilibria (putting superrationality aside: I think that superrationality should manifest via modifying the game rather than abandoning the notion of Nash equilibrium).

The simplest setup in (non-cooperative) game theory is normal form games. Learning happens by accumulating evidence over time, so a normal form game is not, in itself, a meaningful setting for learning. One way to solve this is replacing the normal form game by a repeated version. This, however, requires deciding on a time discount. For sufficiently steep time discounts, the repeated game is essentially equivalent to the normal form game (from the perspective of game theory). However, the full-fledged theory of intelligent agents requires considering shallow time discounts, otherwise there is no notion of long-term planning. For shallow time discounts, the game theory of a repeated game is very different from the game theory of the original normal form game. In fact, the folk theorem asserts that any payoff vector above the maximin of each player is a possible Nash payoff. So, proving convergence to a Nash equilibrium amounts (more or less) to proving converges to at least the maximin payoff. This is possible using incomplete models [AF · GW], but doesn't seem very interesting: to receive the maximin payoff, the agents only have to learn the rules of the game, they need not learn the reward functions of the other players or anything else about them.

We arrive at the question, what setting is realistic (in the sense of involving learning with shallow time discount) and is expected to produce Nash equilibria for a normal form game? I suggest the following. Instead of a fixed set of agents repeatedly playing against each other, we consider a population of agents that are teamed-off randomly on each round of the game. The population is assumed to be large enough for agents not to encounter each other more than once. This can be formalized as follows. Let $A_i$ be the pure strategy set of the $i$-th agent and $O:={\prod }_i{A}_i$ the set of pure outcomes. The set of $n$-round outcome histories is $O^n$. The population of agents on the $n$-round can then be described as a probability measure ${\mu }_n\in \Delta O^n$. Suppose the policy of the $i$-th player (that is, of all the agents that take the role of the $i$-th player) is ${\pi }_i:O^n\to \Delta A_i$. Then we can define a time evolution rule that produces ${\mu }_{n+1}$ from ${\mu }_n$. This rule works as follows: in order to sample ${\mu }_{n+1}$ we sample ${\mu }_n$ once per player (this is the history the given player has seen), sample the policy of each player on its own history, and produce a new history by appending the resulting outcome to one of the old histories (it doesn't matter which). A set of policies is considered to be in equilibrium, when for any $i$, and any alternative policy ${\pi }_i^{\prime }$, letting ${\pi }_i^{\prime }$ play against the same population (i.e. all other copies of the $i$-th player still play ${\pi }_i$) doesn't improve expected utility. In other words, on each round the "mutant" agent retains its own history but the other player histories are still sampled from the same ${\mu }_n$. It is easy to see that any equilibrium payoff in this setting is a Nash payoff in the original normal form game. We can then legitimately ask whether taking the ${\pi }_i$ to be learning algorithms would result in convergence to a Nash payoff in the $\gamma \to 1$ (shallow time discount) limit.

For example, consider the Prisoner's dilemma. In the repeated Prisoner's dilemma with shallow time discount, $CC$ is an equilibrium because of the tit-for-tat policy. On the other hand, in the "population" (massively multi-player?) repeated Prisoner's dilemma, $DD$ is the only equilibrium. Tit-for-tat doesn't work because a single "defect bot" can exploit a population of tit-for-tats: on each round it plays with a new opponent that doesn't know the defect bot defected on the previous round.

Note that we get a very different setting if we allow the players to see each other's histories, more similar (equivalent?) to the regular repeated game. For example, in the Prisoner's Dilemma we have a version of tit-for-tat that responds to what its current opponent played in its previous round (against a different opponent). This may be regarded as a confirmation of the idea that agents that know each other's source code are effectively playing a repeated game: in this setting, knowing the source code amounts to knowing the history.

Here's a question inspired by thinking about Turing RL, and trying to understand what kind of "beliefs about computations" should we expect the agent to acquire.

Does mathematics have finite information content?

First, let's focus on computable mathematics. At first glance, the answer seems obviously "no": because of the halting problem, there's no algorithm (i.e. a Turing machine that always terminates) which can predict the result of every computation. Therefore, you can keep learning new facts about results of computations forever. BUT, maybe most of those new facts are essentially random noise, rather than "meaningful" information?

Is there a difference of principle between "noise" and "meaningful content"? It is not obvious, but the answer is "yes": in algorithmic statistics there is the notion of "sophistication" which measures how much "non-random" information is contained in some data. In our setting, the question can be operationalized as follows: is it possible to have an algorithm $A$ plus an infinite sequence of bits $R$, s.t. $R$ is random in some formal sense (e.g. Martin-Lof) and $A$ can decide the output of any finite computation if it's also given access to $R$?

The answer to the question above is "yes"! Indeed, Chaitin's constant is Martin-Lof random. Given access to Chaitin's constant, it is possible to construct a halting oracle, therefore $A$ can decide whether the computation halts, and if it does, run it (and if doesn't, output N/A or whatever).

[EDIT: Actually, this is not quite right. The way you use Chaitin's constant to emulate a halting oracle produces something that's only guaranteed to halt if you give it the correct Chaitin's constant.]

But, this is a boring solution. In practice we are interested at efficient methods of answering mathematical questions, and beliefs acquired by resource bounded agents. Hence, the question becomes: given a resource bound $B$ (e.g. a bound on space or time complexity), is it possible to have $A$ and $R$ similar to above, s.t. $A$ respects the bound $B$ and $R$ is pseudorandom in some formal sense w.r.t. the bound $B$?

[EDIT: I guess that the analogous thing to the unbounded setting would be, $A$ only has to respect $B$ when given the correct $R$. But the real conclusion is probably that we should look for something else instead, e.g. some kind of infradistribution.]

This is a fun question, because any answer would be fascinating in its own way: either computable mathematics has finite content in some strong formal sense (!) or mathematics is infinitely sophisticated in some formal sense (!)

We can also go in the other direction along the "hierarchy of feasibility", although I'm not sure how useful is that. Instead of computable mathematics, let's consider determining the truth (not provability, but actual truth) of sentences in e.g. Peano Arithmetic. Does $A$ and $R$ as above still exist? This would require e.g. a Martin-Lof random sequence which allows making any finite number of Turing jumps.

Epistemic status: no claims to novelty, just (possibly) useful terminology.

[EDIT: I increased all the class numbers by 1 in order to admit a new definition of "class I", see child comment [LW(p) · GW(p)].]

I propose a classification on AI systems based on the size of the space of attack vectors. This classification can be applied in two ways: as referring to the attack vectors a priori relevant to the given architectural type, or as referring to the attack vectors that were not mitigated in the specific design. We can call the former the "potential" class and the latter the "effective" class of the given system. In this view, the problem of alignment is designing potential class V (or at least IV) systems are that effectively class 0 (or at least I-II).

Class II: Systems that only ever receive synthetic data that has nothing to do with the real world

Examples:

• AI that is trained to learn Go by self-play
• AI that is trained to prove random mathematical statements
• AI that is trained to make rapid predictions of future cell states in the game of life for random initial conditions
• AI that is trained to find regularities in sequences corresponding to random programs on some natural universal Turing machine with bounded runtime

Class II systems by and large don't admit any attack vectors. [EDIT: Inaccurate, see child comment [LW(p) · GW(p)]]

Such systems might have higher effective class if bugs in the implementation lead to real-world data leaking into the system, or if the ostensibly synthetic data reveals something important about the world via the choices made by its designers (for example, a video game with complex rules inspired by the real world).

Class III: Systems for which there is no distribution shift between training and deployment, and also the label space is small

Example: AI that is trained to distinguish between cat images and dog images, and the images selected for training are a perfectly representative sample of images used in deployment.

Class III systems admit attacks by non-Cartesian daemons.

If the label space is large, a Cartesian daemon can choose a low probability for randomly producing a malign label, such that there is a significant probability that this won't happen in training but will happen in deployment. This moves the system to class IV. If there is distribution shift, a Cartesian daemon can distinguish between training and deployment and use it to perform a "treacherous turn" attack. This also moves the system to class IV.

Such systems have lower effective class if non-Cartesian daemons are mitigated, for example by well-designed applications of homomorphic cryptography. They have higher effective class if deployed in a setting which does involve distributional shift, perhaps unanticipated by the designers.

Class IV: Systems which are non-agentic but do involve distribution shift or large label space

Examples:

• AI that learns to imitate humans
• AI that learns to predict the stock market
• Generative language models

Class IV systems admit attacks by Cartesian and non-Cartesian daemons. [EDIT: Also attack from counterfactuals [LW(p) · GW(p)]. The latter requires a large label space and doesn't require a distribution shift per se.]

Such systems have lower effective class if Cartesian daemons are mitigated, for example by carefully shaping the prior / inductive bias and applying some sort of confidence threshold / consensus algorithm. They can be effective class V if not designed to avoid self-fulfilling prophecies and/or incentives to mispredict at present to improve prediction in the future.

Class V: Agentic systems

Examples:

• AI that trades in the stock market
• AI that optimizes long-term ad revenue
• AI that defends the world against unaligned AIs

Class V systems admit attacks by daemons but are also dangerous by default due to divergence of their utility function from the human utility function.

Such system can have lower effective class if the utility function is very cleverly designed, for example to reliably accomplish learning of human values.

I find it interesting to build simple toy models of the human utility function. In particular, I was thinking about the aggregation of value associated with other people. In utilitarianism this question is known as "population ethics" and is infamously plagued with paradoxes. However, I believe that is the result of trying to be impartial. Humans are very partial and this allows coherent ways of aggregation. Here is my toy model:

Let Alice be our viewpoint human. Consider all social interactions Alice has, categorized by some types or properties, and assign a numerical weight to each type of interaction. Let $i_t(A,B)>0$ be the weight of the interaction person $A$ had with person $B$ at time $t$ (if there was no interaction at this time then $i_t(A,B)=0$). Then, we can define Alice's affinity to Bob as

$${aff}_t(\text{Alice},\text{Bob}):=\sum _{s=-\infty }^t{\alpha }^{t-s}{i}_s(\text{Alice},\text{Bob})$$

Here $\alpha \in (0,1)$ is some constant. Ofc ${\alpha }^{t-s}$ can be replaced by many other functions.

Now, we can the define the social distance of Alice to Bob as

$$d_t(\text{Alice},\text{Bob}):=\underset{p_1\dots p_n:p_1=\text{Alice},p_n=\text{Bob}}{inf}\sum _{k=1}^{n-1}{aff}_t(p_k,p_{k+1}{)}^{-\beta }$$

Here $\beta >0$ is some constant, and the power law was chosen rather arbitrarily, there are many functions of $aff$ that can work. Dead people should probably count in the infimum, but their influence wanes over time since they don't interact with anyone (unless we count consciously thinking about a person as an interaction, which we might).

This is a time-dependent metric (or quasimetric, if we allow for asymmetric interactions such as thinking about someone or admiring someone from afar) on the set of people. If $i$ is bounded and there is a bounded number of people Alice can interact with at any given time, then there is some $C>1$ s.t. the number of people within distance $r$ from Alice is $O\left(C^r\right)$. We now define the reward as

$$r_t\left(\text{Alice}\right):=\sum _p{\lambda }^{d_t(\text{Alice},p)}{w}_t\left(p\right)$$

Here $\lambda \in (0,\frac{1}{C})$ is some constant and $w_t\left(p\right)$ is the "welfare" of person $p$ at time $t$, or whatever is the source of value of people for Alice. Finally, the utility function is a time discounted sum of rewards, probably not geometric (because hyperbolic discounting is a thing). It is also appealing to make the decision rule to be minimax-regret over all sufficiently long time discount parameters, but this is tangential.

Notice how the utility function is automatically finite and bounded, and none of the weird paradoxes of population ethics and infinitary ethics crop up, even if there is an infinite number of people in the universe. I like to visualize people space a tiling of hyperbolic space, with Alice standing in the center of a Poincare or Beltrami-Klein model of it. Alice's "measure of caring" is then proportional to volume in the model (this probably doesn't correspond to exactly the same formula but it's qualitatively right, and the formula is only qualitative anyway).

Some thoughts about embedded agency.

From a learning-theoretic perspective, we can reformulate the problem of embedded agency as follows: What kind of agent, and in what conditions, can effectively plan for events after its own death? For example, Alice bequeaths eir fortune to eir children, since ey want them be happy even when Alice emself is no longer alive. Here, "death" can be understood to include modification, since modification is effectively destroying an agent and replacing it by different agent^[1]. For example, Clippy 1.0 is an AI that values paperclips. Alice disabled Clippy 1.0 and reprogrammed it to value staples before running it again. Then, Clippy 2.0 can be considered to be a new, different agent.

First, in order to meaningfully plan for death, the agent's reward function has to be defined in terms of something different than its direct perceptions. Indeed, by definition the agent no longer perceives anything after death. Instrumental reward functions [AF · GW] are somewhat relevant but still don't give the right object, since the reward is still tied to the agent's actions and observations. Therefore, we will consider reward functions defined in terms of some fixed ontology of the external world. Formally, such an ontology can be an incomplete^[2] Markov chain, the reward function being a function of the state. Examples:

• The Markov chain is a representation of known physics (or some sector of known physics). The reward corresponds to the total mass of diamond in the world. To make this example work, we only need enough physics to be able to define diamonds. For example, we can make do with quantum electrodynamics + classical gravity and have the Knightian uncertainty account for all nuclear and high-energy phenomena.

• The Markov chain is a representation of people and social interactions. The reward correspond to concepts like "happiness" or "friendship" et cetera. Everything that falls outside the domain of human interactions is accounted by Knightian uncertainty.

• The Markov chain is Botworld with some of the rules left unspecified. The reward is the total number of a particular type of item.

Now we need to somehow connect the agent to the ontology. Essentially we need a way of drawing Cartesian boundaries inside the (a priori non-Cartesian) world. We can accomplish this by specifying a function that assigns an observation and projected action to every state out of some subset of states. Entering this subset corresponds to agent creation, and leaving it corresponds to agent destruction. For example, we can take the ontology to be Botworld + marked robot and the observations and actions be the observations and actions of that robot. If we don't want marking a particular robot as part of the ontology, we can use a more complicated definition of Cartesian boundary that specifies a set of agents at each state plus the data needed to track these agents across time (in this case, the observation and action depend to some extent on the history and not only the current state). I will leave out the details for now.

Finally, we need to define the prior. To do this, we start by choosing some prior over refinements of the ontology. By "refinement", I mean removing part of the Knightian uncertainty, i.e. considering incomplete hypotheses which are subsets of the "ontological belief". For example, if the ontology is underspecified Botworld, the hypotheses will specify some of what was left underspecified. Given such a "objective" prior and a Cartesian boundary, we can construct a "subjective" prior for the corresponding agent. We transform each hypothesis via postulating that taking an action that differs from the projected action leads to "Nirvana [AF(p) · GW(p)]" state. Alternatively, we can allow for stochastic action selection and use the gambler construction [AF(p) · GW(p)].

Does this framework guarantee effective planning for death? A positive answer would correspond to some kind of learnability result (regret bound). To get learnability, will first need that the reward is either directly on indirectly observable. By "indirectly observable" I mean something like with semi-instrumental reward functions, but accounting for agent mortality. I am not ready to formulate the precise condition atm. Second, we need to consider an asymptotic in which the agent is long lived (in addition to time discount being long-term), otherwise it won't have enough time to learn. Third (this is the trickiest part), we need the Cartesian boundary to flow with the asymptotic as well, making the agent "unspecial". For example, consider Botworld with some kind of simplicity prior. If I am a robot born at cell zero and time zero, then my death is an event of low description complexity. It is impossible to be confident about what happens after such a simple event, since there will always be competing hypotheses with different predictions and a probability that is only lower by a factor of $\Omega \left(1\right)$. On the other hand, if I am a robot born at cell 2439495 at time 9653302 then it would be surprising if the outcome of my death would be qualitatively different from the outcome of the death of any other robot I observed. Finding some natural, rigorous and general way to formalize this condition is a very interesting problem. Of course, even without learnability we can strive for Bayes-optimality or some approximation thereof [AF(p) · GW(p)]. But, it is still important to prove learnability under certain conditions to test that this framework truly models rational reasoning about death.

Additionally, there is an intriguing connection between some of these ideas and UDT, if we consider TRL agents. Specifically, a TRL agent can have a reward function that is defined in terms of computations, exactly like UDT is often conceived. For example, we can consider an agent whose reward is defined in terms of a simulation of Botworld, or in terms of taking expected value over a simplicity prior over many versions of Botworld. Such an agent would be searching for copies of itself inside the computations it cares about, which may also be regarded as a form of "embeddedness". It seems like this can be naturally considered a special case of the previous construction, if we allow the "ontological belief" to include beliefs pertaining to computations.

Learning theory distinguishes between two types of settings: realizable and agnostic (non-realizable). In a realizable setting, we assume that there is a hypothesis in our hypothesis class that describes the real environment perfectly. We are then concerned with the sample complexity and computational complexity of learning the correct hypothesis. In an agnostic setting, we make no such assumption. We therefore consider the complexity of learning the best approximation of the real environment. (Or, the best reward achievable by some space of policies.)

In offline learning and certain varieties of online learning, the agnostic setting is well-understood. However, in more general situations it is poorly understood. The only agnostic result for long-term forecasting that I know is Shalizi 2009, however it relies on ergodicity assumptions that might be too strong. I know of no agnostic result for reinforcement learning.

Quasi-Bayesianism was invented to circumvent the problem. Instead of considering the agnostic setting, we consider a "quasi-realizable" setting: there might be no perfect description of the environment in the hypothesis class, but there are some incomplete descriptions. But, so far I haven't studied quasi-Bayesian learning algorithms much, so how do we know it is actually easier than the agnostic setting? Here is a simple example to demonstrate that it is.

Consider a multi-armed bandit, where the arm space is $[0,1]$. First, consider the follow realizable setting: the reward is a deterministic function $r:[0,1]\to [0,1]$ which is known to be a polynomial of degree $d$ at most. In this setting, learning is fairly easy: it is enough to sample $d+1$ arms in order to recover the reward function and find the optimal arm. It is a special case of the general observation that learning is tractable when the hypothesis space is low-dimensional in the appropriate sense.

Now, consider a closely related agnostic setting. We can still assume the reward function is deterministic, but nothing is known about its shape and we are still expected to find the optimal arm. The arms form a low-dimensional space (one-dimensional actually) but this helps little. It is impossible to predict anything about any arm except those we already tested, and guaranteeing convergence to the optimal arm is therefore also impossible.

Finally, consider the following quasi-realizable setting: each incomplete hypothesis in our class states that the reward function is lower-bounded by a particular polynomial $f:[0,1]\to [0,1]$ of degree $d$ at most. Our algorithm needs to converge to a reward which is at least the maximum of maxima of correct lower bounds. So, the desideratum is weaker than in the agnostic case, but we still impose no hard constraint on the reward function. In this setting, we can use the following algorithm. On each step, fit the most optimistic lower bound to those arms that were already sampled, find its maximum and sample this arm next. I haven't derived the convergence rate, but it seems probable the algorithm will converge rapidly (for low $d$). This is likely to be a special case of some general result on quasi-Bayesian learning with low-dimensional priors.

Master post for alignment protocols.

Other relevant shortforms:

• Autocalibrated quantilized debate [AF(p) · GW(p)]
• Hippocratic principle [AF(p) · GW(p)]
• IDA variants [AF(p) · GW(p)]
• Dialogic RL [AF(p) · GW(p)]
• More dialogic RL [AF(p) · GW(p)]

Much of the orthodox LessWrongian approach to rationality (as it is expounded in Yudkowsky's Sequences and onwards) is grounded in Bayesian probability theory. However, I now realize that pure Bayesianism is wrong, instead the right thing is quasi-Bayesianism [LW(p) · GW(p)]. This leads me to ask, what are the implications of quasi-Bayesianism on human rationality? What are the right replacements for (the Bayesian approach to) bets, calibration, proper scoring rules et cetera? Does quasi-Bayesianism clarify important confusing issues in regular Bayesianism such as the proper use of inside and outside view? Is there rigorous justification to the intuition that we should have more Knightian uncertainty about questions with less empirical evidence? Does any of it influence various effective altruism calculations in surprising ways? What common LessWrongian wisdom does it undermine, if any?

Now that it was mentioned in ACX, I really hope the pear ring will become standard in the rationalist/EA community. So, please signal boost it: bootstrapping is everything, obvious network value effects are obvious. Also, it would be nice if they make a poly version sometime (for now, I will make do with wearing it next to my wedding ring ;), and a way to specify sexual orientation (btw, I'm bi, just saying...)

Master post for ideas about infra-Bayesianism [? · GW].