LessWrong 2.0 Reader

I don't believe the nuclear bomb was truly built to not be used from the point of view of the US gov. I think that was just a lie to manipulate scientists who might otherwise have been unwilling to help.

I don't think any of the AI builders are anywhere close to "building AI not to be used". This seems even more clear than with nuclear, since AI has clear beneficial peacetime economically valuable uses.

Regulation does make things worse if you believe the regulation will fail to work as intended for one reason or another. For example, my argument that putting compute limits on training runs (temporarily or permanently) would hasten progress to AGI by focusing research efforts on efficiency and exploring algorithmic improvements.

Oh absolutely! That will absolutely come. You can fret about this fact, or we build community (which I'm already starting). Why do you need to research when that fact is totally clear and doing is what you should do? Here's another post for you: https://blog.hermesloom.org/p/observing-is-evil

• Kanna is a legal substance dubbed Nature's MDMA, likely working as an empathogen
• Kanna seems to quite precisely increase my BigFive::Extraversion::Warmth (the Facet, 1/6 of E)
• Subjectively this feels like suddenly all the people you see are "your friends", and like you could just walk up to them, strike up a conversation, and start bantering

https://gwern.net/idea#deep-learning has a sketch of it.

I don't feel free to share my model, unfortunately. Hopefully someone else will chime in. I agree with your point and that this is a good question!

I am not trying to say I am certain that Anthropic is going to be net positive, just that that's my view as the higher probability.

I am reminded of Scott's "whispering earring" story (https://www.reddit.com/r/rational/comments/e71a6s/the_whispering_earring_by_scott_alexander_there/). But I'm not sure whether that's actually bad in general rather than specifically because the earring is maybe misaligned.

• DHEA centrally seems to increase my BigFive::Extraversion::Assertiveness (the Aspect, 1/2 of E)

  As a subset of that, it also seems to boost my executive functioning

  The execfunc boost is (as I later read) vaguely consistent with some ADHD research

  It also changes my cognition and motivation in ways I'm not fully comfortable with

   

  There's a subjective 15% chance the mindstate switch was instead placebo-induced

What, Dimir Bastard?

It still surprises me that so many people agree on most issues, but have very different P(doom). And even long-term patient discussions do not bring people's views closer. It will probably be even more difficult to convince a politician or the CEO.

Do you not at all buy John's model, where there are important properties we'd like nearer-term AI to have in order for those AIs to be useful tools for subsequent AI safety work?