So I guess 1.5% of Americans have worse judgment than I expected (by my lights, as someone who thinks that Trump is really bad). Those 1.5% were incredibly important for the outcome of the election and for the future of the country, but they are only 1.5% of the population.

Nitpick: they are 1.5% of the voting population, making them around 0.7% of the US population.

Are there any existing ways to defend against bad stuff that the agent can do in the unmonitored scaffold?

On the question of how much evidence the following scenarios are against the AI scaling thesis (which I roughly take to mean that more FLOPs and compute/data reliably makes AI better for economically important relevant jobs), I'd say that scenarios 4-6 falsify the hypothesis, while 3 is the strongest evidence against the hypothesis, followed by 2 and 1.

4 would make me more willing to buy algorithmic progress as important, 5 would make me more bearish on algorithmic progress, and 6 would make me have way longer timelines than I have now, unless governments fund a massive AI effort.

If you ask people who they're voting for, 50% will say they're voting for Harris. But if you ask them who most of their neighbors are voting for, only 25% will say Harris and 75% will say Trump!

Note this issue could be fixed if you instead ask people who the neighbour immediately to the right of their house/apartment will vote for, which I think is compatible with what we know about this poll. That said, the critique of "do people actually know" stands.

links 9/14/2024: https://roamresearch.com/#/app/srcpublic/page/11-14-2024

• https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine  retro magazines
• https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/09/17/weirding-diary-10/#more-6737 Venkatesh Rao on the fall of the MIT Media Lab
  • this stung a bit!
  • i have tended to think that the stuff with "intellectual-glamour" or "visionary" branding is actually pretty close to on-target. not always right, of course, often overhyped, but often still underinvested in even despite being highly hyped.
    • (a surprising number of famous scientists are starved for funding. a surprising number of inventions featured on TED, NYT, etc were never given resources to scale.)
  • I also am literally unconvinced that "Europe's kindergarten" was less sophisticated than our own time! but it seems like a fine debate to have at leisure, not totally sure how it would play out.
  • he's basically been proven right that energy has moved "underground" but that's not a mode i can work very effectively in. if you have to be invited to participate, well, it's probably not going to happen for me.
  • at the institutional level, he's probably right that it's wise to prepare for bad times and not get complacent. again, this was 2019; a lot of the bad times came later. i miss the good times; i want to believe they'll come again.

You should say "timelines" instead of "your timelines".

One thing I notice in AI safety career and strategy discussions is that there is a lot of epistemic helplessness in regard to AGI timelines. People often talk about "your timelines" instead of "timelines" when giving advice, even if they disagree strongly with the timelines. I think this habit causes people to ignore disagreements in unhelpful ways.

Here's one such conversation:

Bob: Should I do X if my timelines are 10 years?

Alice (who has 4 year timelines): I think X makes sense if your timelines are longer that 6 years, so yes!

Alice will encourage Bob to do X despite the fact that Alice thinks timelines are shorter than 6 years! Alice is actively giving Bob bad advice by her own lights (by assuming timelines she doesn't agree with). Alice should instead say "I think timelines are shorter than 6 years, so X doesn't make sense. But if they were longer than 6 years it would make sense". 

In most discussions, there should be no such thing as "your timelines" or "my timelines". That framing makes it harder to converge, and it encourages people to give each other advice that they don't even think makes sense.

Note that I do think some plans make sense as bets for long timeline worlds, and that using medians somewhat oversimplifies timelines. My point still holds if you replace the medians with probability distributions.

she should have picked Josh Shapiro as her running mate

Note that this news story makes allegations that, if true, make it sound like the decision was partly Shapiro's:

Following Harris's interview with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, there was a sense among Shapiro's team that the meeting did not go as well as it could have, sources familiar with the matter tell ABC News.

Later Sunday, after the interview, Shapiro placed a phone call to Harris' team, indicating he had reservations about leaving his job as governor, sources said.

Start with an analogy to physics. There’s a Stephen Hawking quote I like:

> “Even if there is only one possible unified theory, it is just a set of rules and equations. What is it that breathes fire into the equations and makes a universe for them to describe? The usual approach of science of constructing a mathematical model cannot answer the questions of why there should be a universe for the model to describe. Why does the universe go to all the bother of existing?”

I could be wrong, but Hawking’s question seems to be pointing at a real mystery. But as Hawking says, there seems to be no possible observation or scientific experiment that would shed light on that mystery. Whatever the true laws of physics are in our universe, every possible experiment would just confirm, yup, those are the true laws of physics. It wouldn’t help us figure out what if anything “breathes fire” into those laws. What would progress on the “breathes fire” question even look like?? (See Tegmark’s Mathematical Universe book for the only serious attempt I know of, which I still find unsatisfying. He basically says that all possible laws of the universe have fire breathed into them. But even if that’s true, I still want to ask … why?)

By analogy, I’m tempted to say that an illusionist account can explain every possible experiment about consciousness, including our belief that consciousness exists at all, and all its properties, and all the philosophy books on it, and so on … but yet I’m tempted to still say that there’s some “breathes fire” / “why is there something rather than nothing” type question left unanswered by the illusionist account. This unanswered question should not be called “the hard problem”, but rather “the impossible problem”, in the sense that, just like Hawking’s question above, there seems to be no possible scientific measurement or introspective experiment and that could shed light on it—all possible such data, including the very fact that I’m writing this paragraph, are already screened off by the illusionist framework.

Well, hmm, maybe that’s stupid. I dunno.

My provisional answer is "An infinity of FLOPs/compute backs up the equations to make sure it works.

What's a bad thing that the agent can do via the GCG attack that it can't just do in the unmonitored scaffold?

I don’t understand, can you say more?