LessWrong 2.0 Reader

I'm sure they would. And some of those ways ASI can help would include becoming immortal, replacing relationships with other humans things like that. But compared to an ASI, it is easier for a human to die, to have their mind changed by outside influences, and to place intrinsic value on the whole range of things humans care about including other people.

I don't have nearly enough information to have an opinion on that.

I don't think you need that footnoted caveat, simply because there isn't $150M/year worth of room for more funding in all of AMF, Malaria Consortium's SMC program, HKI's vitamin A supplementation program, and New Incentives' cash incentives for routine vaccination program all combined; these comprise the full list of GiveWell's top charities.  

Another point is that the benefits of eradication keep adding up long after you've stopped paying for the costs, because the counterfactual that people keep suffering and dying of the disease is no longer happening. That's how smallpox eradication's cost-effectiveness can plausibly be less than a dollar per DALY averted so far and dropping (Guesstimate model, analysis [EA · GW]). Quoting that analysis: 

3.10.) For how many years should you consider benefits?

It is not clear for how long we should continue to consider benefits, since the benefits of vaccines would potentially continue indefinitely for hundreds of years. Perhaps these benefits would eventually be offset by some other future technology, and we could try to model that. Or perhaps we should consider a discount rate into the future, though we don’t find that idea appealing.

Instead, we decided to cap at an arbitrary fixed amount of years set to 20 by default, though adjustable as a variable in our spreadsheet model (or by copying and modifying our Guesstimate models). We picked 20 because it felt like a significant enough amount of time for technology and other dynamics to shift.

It’s important to think through what cap makes the most sense, though, as it can have a large effect on the final model, as seen in this table where we explore the ramifications of smallpox eradication with different benefit thresholds:

Smallpox Eradication Cost-effectiveness

Benefits Considered	Cost-effectiveness	Guesstimate
10 Years	$0.79 - $7.30 / DALY	Link
20 Years	$0.41 - $3.50 / DALY	Link
30 Years	$0.26 - $2.40 / DALY	See “10 years”
50 Years	$0.16 - $1.50 / DALY	See “10 years”

Not a billion billion times.  You need ≈2^100 presses to get any signal, and ≈O(2^200) presses to figure out which way the signal goes.  2^200≈10^60.  Planck time's about 10^-45 seconds.  If you try to press the button more than 10^45 times per second the radiation the electrons in the button will emit will be so high frequency an small wavelength that it will collapse into a black hole.

Yeah that could be doable. Dylan's pretty natsec focused already so I would guess he'd take a broad view of the ROI from something like this. From what I hear he is already in touch with some of the folks who are in the mix, which helps, but the core goal is to get random leaf node action officers this access with minimum friction. I think an unconditional discount to all federal employees probably does pass muster with the regs, though of course folks would still be paying something out of pocket. I'll bring this up to SA next time we talk to them though, it might move the needle. For all I know, they might even be doing it already.

I'm not really suggesting something as convoluted as Hitler killing someone much worse than him. More like, maybe Elon Musk started supporting Republicans because he learned something very bad about Democrats and maybe eventually he's going to realize Republicans have something very bad too and then maybe he does a project that solves both bad things at once.

This seems to require working tightly enough with Republicans for long enough to understand why they are so bad, so it could be compared to Elon Musk working on EVs to understand how to scale up EV production.

Then the wave crested.

Is there any more you can say about this? 

People already tell me I have good vibes, and feel like I listen to them^[1]. I give off an air of nonchalance, because I think I kill^[2] my emotions in public. 

But I do it because it's one more thing to deal with that I generally don't have energy for. I'm already bothered by all the light and sound.

It seems like you're saying "I meditated, and while at first that made sensory issues worse, eventually they just stopped." And I'd like to know why, if that was legible to you.

Would appreciate any advice. I can probably say more about my experiences, but I'm not sure what more, if any, would be helpful.

1. ^{^}

   I don't know if it's the same as you. I think I'm maybe not as active a listener? I don't think I'm incapable of the way I see you listen in your videos, but I'm not sure I put the energy into it.

2. ^{^}

   I use a visceral word because I don't approve of this practice in myself. Perhaps "ignore" or "block" would be more accurate?

For sufficiently nice regular, 1-dimensional Bayesian models, Edgeworth-type asymptotic expansions for the Bayesian posterior have been derived in

https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-mathematical-statistics/volume-41/issue-3/Asymptotic-Expansions-Associated-with-Posterior-Distributions/10.1214/aoms/1177696963.full

Signalling that I do not like linkposts to personal blogs.

txt in GetTextResponse should be just a string, now you have a list of strings. I'm not saying this is the only problem : ) See also https://github.com/LRudL/evalugator/blob/1787ab88cf2e4cdf79d054087b2814cc55654ec2/evalugator/api/providers/openai.py#L207-L222