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It's possible that "many mediocre or specialized AIs" is, in practice, a bad summary of the regime with strong inference scaling. Maybe people's associations with "lots of mediocre thinking" ends up being misleading.

Thanks!

I agree that we've learned interesting new things about inference speeds. I don't think I would have anticipated that at the time.

Re:

It seems that spending more inference compute can (sometimes) be used to qualitatively and quantitatively improve capabilities (e.g., o1 [LW · GW], recent swe-bench results, arc-agi [LW · GW] rather than merely doing more work in parallel. Thus, it's not clear that the relevant regime will look like "lots of mediocre thinking".^[1] [LW · GW]

There are versions of this that I'd still describe as "lots of mediocre thinking" —adding up to being similarly useful as higher-quality thinking.

(C.f. above from the post: "the collective’s intelligence will largely come from [e.g.] Individual systems 'thinking' for a long time, churning through many more explicit thoughts than a skilled human would need to solve a problem" & "Assuming that much of this happens 'behind the scenes', a human interacting with this system might just perceive it as a single super-smart AI.) 

The most relevant question is whether we'll still get the purported benefits of the lots-of-mediocre-thinking-regime if there's strong inference scaling. I think we probably do.

Paraphrasing my argument in the "Implications" section:

• If we don't do much end-to-end training of models thinking a lot, then supervision will be pretty easy. (Even if the models think for a long time, it will all be in English, and each leap-of-logic will be weak compared to what the human supervisors can do.)
• End-to-end training of models thinking a lot is expensive. So maybe we won't do it by default, or maybe it will be an acceptable alignment tax to  avoid it. (Instead favoring "process-based" methods as the term is used in this post [LW · GW].)
• Even if we do end-to-end training of models thinking a lot, the model's "thinking" might still remain pretty interpretable to humans in practice.
• If models produce good recommendations by thinking a lot in either English or something similar to English, then there ought to be a translation/summary of that argument which humans can understand. Then, even if we're giving the models end-to-end feedback, we could give them feedback based on whether humans recognize the argument as good, rather than by testing the recommendation and seeing whether it leads to good results in the real world. (This comment [LW(p) · GW(p)] discusses this distinction. Confusingly, this is sometimes referred to as "process-based feedback" as opposed to "outcomes-based feedback", despite it being slightly different from the concept two bullet points up. )

I think o3 results might involve enough end-to-end training to mostly contradict the hopes of bullet points 1-2. But I'd guess it doesn't contradict 3-4.

(Another caveat that I didn't have in the post is that it's slightly tricker to supervise mediocre serial thinking than mediocre parallel thinking, because you may not be able to evaluate a random step in the middle without loading up on earlier context. But my guess is that you could train AIs to help you with this without adding too much extra risk.)

Figure out a way to show users the CoT of reasoning/agent models that you release in the future. (i.e. don't do what OpenAI did with o1). Doesn't have to be all of it, just has to be enough -- e.g. each user gets 1 CoT view per day.

What would be the purpose of 1 CoT view per user per day?

I suspect you're misinterpreting EY's comment.

Here was the context:
"I think controlling Earth's destiny is only modestly harder than understanding a sentence in English - in the same sense that I think Einstein was only modestly smarter than George W. Bush. EY makes a similar point [? · GW].

You sound to me like someone saying, sixty years ago: "Maybe some day a computer will be able to play a legal game of chess - but simultaneously defeating multiple grandmasters, that strains credibility, I'm afraid." But it only took a few decades to get from point A to point B. I doubt that going from "understanding English" to "controlling the Earth" will take that long."

It seems clear to me EY was more saying something like "ASI will arrive soon after natural language understanding", rather than it having anything to do with alignment specifically.

"It's fine to say that this is a falsified prediction"

I wouldn't even say it's falsified. The context was: "it only took a few decades to get from [chess computer can make legal chess moves] to [chess computer beats human grandmaster]. I doubt that going from "understanding English" to "controlling the Earth" will take that long."

So insofar as we believe ASI is coming in less than a few decades, I'd say EY's prediction is still on track to turn out correct.

There are imaginable things that are smarter than humans at some tasks, smart as average humans at others, thus overall superhuman, yet controllable and therefore possible to integrate in an economy

sure, e.g. i think (<- i may be wrong about what the average human can do) that GPT-4 meets this definition (far superhuman at predicting author characteristics, above-average-human at most other abstract things). that's a totally different meaning.

Most AI optimists think these limited and controllable intelligences are the default natural outcome of our current trajectory and thus expect mere boosts in productivity.

do you mean they believe superintelligence (the singularity-creating kind) is impossible, and so don't also expect it to come after? it's not sufficient for less capable AIs to defaultly come before superintelligence.

Normal humans have a fairly limited set of true desires, the sort of things we see on Maslow's hierarchy of needs.  Food, safety, sex, belonging, esteem, etc.  If you've become so committed to your moral goals that they override your innate desires, you are (for lack of a better word) a saint.  But for most people, morality is a proxy goal that we pursue as a strategy to reach our true goals.  Most people act a culturally specified version of morality to gain esteem and all that goes with it (jobs, mates, friends, etc).

Your true desires won't change much over your lifetime, but your strategies will change as you learn.  For example, I'm a lot less intellectual than I was 30 years ago.  Back then I was under the delusion that reading a 600-page book on quantum mechanics or social policy would somehow help me in life; I have since learned that it really doesn't.

Clearly I'm what the OP would call a cynic, but it misunderstands us.  I'm a disbeliever, sure, but not a coward.  I know well that peculiar feeling you get just before you screw up your life to do the right thing, and a coward wouldn't.  I just no longer see much value in it.  As Machiavelli said, "he who neglects what is done for what ought to be done, sooner effects his ruin than his preservation."

The true test of a saint is this - if doing the right thing would lead to lifelong misery for you and your family, would you still do it?

It's important to be careful about the boundaries of "the same sort of safety work." For example, my understanding is that "Alignment faking in large language models" started as a Redwood Research project, and Anthropic only became involved later. Maybe Anthropic would have done similar work soon anyway if Redwood didn't start this project. But, then again, maybe not. By working on things that labs might be interested in you can potentially get them to prioritize things that are in scope for them in principle but which they might nevertheless neglect. 

Offense/defense balance is such a giant crux for me. I would take quite different actions if I saw plausible arguments that defense will win over offense. I'm astonished that I don't know any literature on this. Large parts of the space seem to be quite strongly convinced that offense will win or defense will win (at least, else their actions don't make sense to me), but I've very rarely seen this assumption debated explicitly. It would really be very helpful if someone could point me to sources. Right now I have a twitter poll with 30 votes (result: offense wins) and an old LW post [LW · GW] to go by.

Not fully. Most of the nobility is gone. Only like 0.01% remains maybe what could be called "rentier", or even less compared to what had been before.