LessWrong 2.0 Reader

I think this is a great project. I believe your documentary would have high impact via informing and inspiring AI policy discussions. You've already interviewed an impressive amount of relevant people. I admire your initiative to take on this project quickly, even before getting funding for it.

Ah. I would say human psychology is too epiphenomenal so I'm mainly modelling things that shape (dis)equillibria in complex ecologies.

At $150/kW-hr and assuming a somewhat low 3000 cycle lifetime, such batteries would cost $0.05 per cycled kW-hr which is very much cost-effective when paired with the extremely low cost but inconveniently timed nature of solar power. It would drop the amortized cost of a complete off-grid power system for my home to half that of grid power in my area, for example.

Even now at $1000/kW-hr retail it's almost cost-effective here to buy batteries to time-shift energy from solar generation to time of consumption. At $700/kW-hr it would definitely be cost-effective to do daily load-shifting with the grid as a backup only for heavily cloudy days.

Pumped hydro is already underway in this region, though it's proving more expensive and time-consuming to build than expected. Have there been some recent advances in compressed air energy storage? The information I read 2-3 years ago did not look promising at any scale.

Western states today use state violence to enforce high taxes and lots of government regulations. In my view they're probably more dominance-oriented than states which just leave rural farmers alone. At least some of this is part of a Keynesian policy to boost economic output, and economic output is closely related to military formidability (due to ability to afford raw resources and advanced technology for the military).

Hm, I guess you would see this as more closely related to bargaining power than to dominance, because in your model dominance is a human-psychology-thing and bargaining power isn't restricted to voluntary transactions?

Question for a lawyer: how is non-reciprocity not an interstate trade issue that federal courts can strike down?

I have attempted to communicate to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, seemingly to little success so far, that given the reality of limited personal bandwidth, with over 99% of their influence and decision-making typically mediated through others, it’s essential to refine the ability to identify trustworthy advisors in each domain. Expert judgment is an active field of research with valuable, actionable insights.

Fascinating. Sounds related to the Yoga concept of kryias.

Opacity: if you could directly inspect an AI’s motivations (or its cognition more generally), this would help a lot. But you can’t do this with current ML models.

The ease with which Anthropic's model organisms of misalignment were diagnosed by a simple and obvious linear probe suggests otherwise. So does the number of elements in SAE feature dictionaries that describe emotions, motivations, and behavioral patterns. Current ML models are no longer black boxes: they rapidly becoming more-translucent grey boxes. So the sorts of applications for this you go on to discuss look like they're rapidly becoming practicable.

You have been attacked by a pack of stray dogs twice?!?!