LessWrong 2.0 Reader

It does of course raise the difficulty level for the political maneuvering, but would make things far more credible which means that people could actually rely on it. It really is quite difficult to precommit to things you might not like, so structures that make it work seem interesting to me.

Shreeda Segan is working on building it, as a cashflow business. they need $10K to get to the MVP. https://manifund.org/projects/hire-a-dev-to-finish-and-launch-our-dating-site

The fact that there's a sex recession is pretty suggestive that tinder and the endless stream of tinder clones doesn't serve people very well. 

Even if you don't assess potential romantic partners by reading their essays, like I do, OkC's match percentage meant that you could easily filter out 95% of the pool to people who are more likely to be compatible with you, along whatever metrics of compatibility you care about.

Yeah I pretty much agree with this assessment. I think you could probably get to 80% with 100 million and ten years and maybe 50% with 30 million and 7 years. Perhaps I'm optimistic, but right now the entire field is bottlenecked by the need for $4 million to do primate testing.

OKcupid is certainly a better product for hundreds of thousands, or possibly millions, of unusually literate people, including ~all potential developers and most people in their social circles. It's not a small niche.

I kind of wished you both gave some reasoning as to why you believe that the agentic AI overhang/algorithmic overhang is likely, and I also wish that Nathan Helm Burger and Vladimir Nesov discussed this topic in a dialogue post.

Sam Altman says AGI is coming in 2025 (and he is also expecting a child next year) https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1854988648745517297 

Great works, folks. This further highlights a challenge that wasn't obvious to me when I first began to study SAEs — which features are learned is just super contingent on the SAE size, sparsity, and training data. Ablations like this one are important. 

"bottleneck" of the CoT tokens.  Whatever needs to be passed along from one sequential calculation step to the next must go through this bottleneck.

Does it, though? The keys and values from previous forward passes are still accessible, even if the generated token is not.

So the CoT tokens are not absolute information bottlenecks. But yes, replacing the token by a dot reduces the number of serial steps the model can perform (from mn to m+n, if there are m forward passes and n layers).

Fwiw I basically think you are right about the agentic AI overhang and obviously so. I do think it shapes how one thinks about what's most valuable in AI alignment.